10188 - UCS: Death Star

[exciter1]

You guys sometimes make it very hard to just enjoy a good cult.

[legoray01]

Bad investment or un realistic expectations???

I bought three of these in 2015.  I bought zero before. 

Lets assume I can sell all three for $550 each.  My return on investment on an annual basis is $550 if I pay no shipping or handling.  (Yes, I have had offers at $550 from folks I have met on craigslist and have not taken them) .  That would be a rough return of $37.5% 

Point is expectation.  I am happy with the return on these sets because a 37.5% return on an investment I have held for less than a year is pretty darn good.  I believe these are long turn hold.  I do not believe you will see a set like this in the future.  It may stall for a little bit but if it grows at 15% a year you have a double in five years. 

Be glad you have a few, hold on to them.  Remember why you bought them and it no longer matters how much you paid as that money is gone.  Hold for the future.  IT will be there. 

[newbie77]

6 hours ago, iahawks550 said:

I don't think this set is WIDELY hoarded at all. But I think those that have hoarded it, have enormous numbers of them and will control the market. 99% of those on this site are relatively small time investors who didn't dump $10,000 into this set to own 25-40 (depending on buy-in price).

That being said, a person can "flip" this set right now on Ebay and make a minimum of 10% profit without even trying.

explain please.

my simple calculation doesn't see it

selling price of $540-($54 eBay fee)-($15,96)=$470,06-(shipping $20=>$40)=net($450=>430,06)

cost price = $399,99+tax=$439.99

5 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

T1 isn't a sub $100 set

ah common we know how many you have hoarded @ $64 buy in  ... 

[newbie77]

3 minutes ago, legoray01 said:

Bad investment or un realistic expectations???

I bought three of these in 2015.  I bought zero before. 

Lets assume I can sell all three for $550 each.  My return on investment on an annual basis is $550 if I pay no shipping or handling.  (Yes, I have had offers at $550 from folks I have met on craigslist and have not taken them) .  That would be a rough return of $37.5% 

Point is expectation.  I am happy with the return on these sets because a 37.5% return on an investment I have held for less than a year is pretty darn good.  I believe these are long turn hold.  I do not believe you will see a set like this in the future.  It may stall for a little bit but if it grows at 15% a year you have a double in five years. 

Be glad you have a few, hold on to them.  Remember why you bought them and it no longer matters how much you paid as that money is gone.  Hold for the future.  IT will be there. 

yours probably is an exception. if you are getting $550 @ craigslist then in my honest opinion you should take it and invest the $ somewhere else. 

$550 (without shipping,handling,fees) roughly about $700 (on amazon or eBay or other selling platforms) so it would be a while before we see this puppy reaching that level. 

it will reach there but because of #75159, appreciation of #10188 will take longer unless they are very very significantly different which again will be "round shaped death star" like any of the previous releases  

[Darth_Raichu]

I have ZERO 10188.  Time to see if I am actually wise  or a fool 

[Alpinemaps]

I have ZERO 10188.  Time to see if I am actually wise  or a fool 

You and me both. Actually I have one for us to build at some point (bought it used basically).

[legoray01]

1 hour ago, newbie77 said:

yours probably is an exception. if you are getting $550 @ craigslist then in my honest opinion you should take it and invest the $ somewhere else. 

$550 (without shipping,handling,fees) roughly about $700 (on amazon or eBay or other selling platforms) so it would be a while before we see this puppy reaching that level. 

it will reach there but because of #75159, appreciation of #10188 will take longer unless they are very very significantly different which again will be "round shaped death star" like any of the previous releases  

To be clear - I wasn't advertising it for $550.  Someone who was buying other sets from me asked if I had one and I said yes and he offered $550.  I said no. 

[Miami Bomb Squad]

If you filter the search on Ebay, Its 125 sellers of NIB sets
3 sets are between $520-529 add $35 for shipping. 
The next 18 sets are between $570-$600 with free shipping.
The remaining 104 are all Above $600 plus shipping. 
IF you don't think this set is moving in the right direction, I suggest you get out of Lego investing.
10188 hasn't even retired a full year and people are already panicking and dropping their pants.  
 

[asharerin]

5 hours ago, newbie77 said:

yours probably is an exception. if you are getting $550 @ craigslist then in my honest opinion you should take it and invest the $ somewhere else. 

$550 (without shipping,handling,fees) roughly about $700 (on amazon or eBay or other selling platforms) so it would be a while before we see this puppy reaching that level. 

 

I am selling mine for $450 cash on craigslist which is what I would net after all fees by selling on Amazon. I would love to be able to sell for $550 cash locally but the demand is not there at that price. Bought all mine in mid Nov 2015 for $252 each set so definitely not a home run but not entirely horrible either.

I don't see this set moving up significantly from where it is at prior to the pics being leaked of the new Death Star at the end of summer so I am playing it safe and cashing in now and reinvesting in other items.

[newbie77]

6 minutes ago, asharerin said:

I am selling mine for $450 cash on craigslist which is what I would net after all fees by selling on Amazon. I would love to be able to sell for $550 cash locally but the demand is not there at that price. Bought all mine in mid Nov 2015 for $252 each set so definitely not a home run but not entirely horrible either.

I don't see this set moving up significantly from where it is at prior to the pics being leaked of the new Death Star at the end of summer so I am playing it safe and cashing in now and reinvesting in other items.

nice $252 in 11/15 ? from where? that's a nice discount. 

[asharerin]

4 minutes ago, newbie77 said:

nice $252 in 11/15 ? from where? that's a nice discount. 

From Target. That was prior to them banning the use of coupon codes on Lego.

[newbie77]

1 minute ago, asharerin said:

From Target. That was prior to them banning the use of coupon codes on Lego.

good one. those stack coupons of 15% 15% gotcha.. i forgot all about that i was so strapped then.. otherwise would have loaded on few of sets

[brickology101]

I counted 165 or so of this set available from 15 sellers or so with Amazon prime and the price tags only increased to $560. And there were two vendors that limited to 5 per customer hence not possible to know their max quantity. And this is just with Amazon. I don't think you all realize how many of these sets have to go before it hits $600. I have 3 of those so i am in the same mess. Way way way overhorded.

[Bold-Arrow]

20 minutes ago, brickology101 said:

I counted 165 or so of this set available from 15 sellers or so with Amazon prime and the price tags only increased to $560. And there were two vendors that limited to 5 per customer hence not possible to know their max quantity. And this is just with Amazon. I don't think you all realize how many of these sets have to go before it hits $600. I have 3 of those so i am in the same mess. Way way way overhorded.

Over hoarding is the name of the game going fwd my friend  . Gonna only get worst 

[yang]

3 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Over hoarding is the name of the game going fwd my friend  . Gonna only get worst 

Agreed. Too bad I got into the game too late. Now just several months in, I already wanna give up. Going forward, I will only buy sets that I really like and at good discounts, and I will not buy more than 5 copies on any set.

[Battrax]

10 hours ago, Darth_Raichu said:

I have ZERO 10188.  Time to see if I am actually wise  or a fool 

I almost bought in to the cult golden opportunity I mean DS rite of passage 10188 when it appeared to be legitimately going away... I didn't end up getting any, either. That could either be a sound decision or a sign of me being a great big pillock (again).

So no signs yet of its rumoured replacement? Hmm.

[Dark Helmet]

This is how the bubble bursts. This unrealistic expectation that a set hasn't doubled in value IMMEDIATELY so I will call the set a failure and keep dropping my price till someone bites. It's a self fulfilling prophecy. 

[Manse1001]

Yeah I find it hard to believe that people always expect a set to double in price a week after the official 'retired tag' has been slapped on it!? Surely if someone was that desperate to own this set that they are willing to pay 50% over RRP for it they would have just purchased it a few months prior to it retiring, especially when its been in production as long as the DS has!? Surely to see any good return you'll have to wait at least six months for the dust to settle and wait for new investors/lego fans to enter the market, realise what a fantastic set it is and therefore will be willing to pay a heavily increased sum for it just to have it in there personal collection?

And as for the new rumoured set, in my eyes I don't see this making any difference to the price for a number of reasons.  Firstly are lego likely to make an 'official' UCS revamp of 10188, in my opinion very unlikely, realistically can this set be improved that much? Most people class the 10188 as a UCS set anyway! If Lego make a UCS of Starkiller Base (which is what Disney will probably try and push for as well) then its a completely different kettle of fish !! And even more so, a REAL collector or investor will want both in their collection!! Just my view. 

[redcell]

Yeah I find it hard to believe that people always expect a set to double in price a week after the official 'retired tag' has been slapped on it!?

What's really baffling is why people think that the retired product tag has any impact whatsoever on how a product performs. By the time the tag appears, the product is long gone and, regardless, is not something that many, if any, consumers pay any attention to.

[Manse1001]

Just now, redcell said:

What's really baffling is why people think that the retired product tag has any impact whatsoever on how a product performs. By the time the tag appears, the product is long gone and, regardless, is not something that many, if any, consumers pay any attention to.

My point exactly !! 

[KShine]

2 hours ago, redcell said:

What's really baffling is why people think that the retired product tag has any impact whatsoever on how a product performs. By the time the tag appears, the product is long gone and, regardless, is not something that many, if any, consumers pay any attention to.

Umm, maybe because it does have an impact on how a product performs.

[Manse1001]

1 minute ago, KShine said:

Umm, maybe because it does have an impact on how a product performs.

Yes but not over night? As @redcell said, generally sets pretty much disappear off the shelves long before the 'retired tag' finally appears.  I'm merely commenting on the fact that people shouldn't panic that a set hasn't doubled in value over night just because it gets officially retired be Lego . . .  

[iahawks550]

16 hours ago, newbie77 said:

explain please.

my simple calculation doesn't see it

selling price of $540-($54 eBay fee)-($15,96)=$470,06-(shipping $20=>$40)=net($450=>430,06)

cost price = $399,99+tax=$439.99

I was just using the assumption that most people playing this game either didn't pay tax when they purchased, got a substantial discount when they purchased, or purchased with gift cards to bring the actual price to ~$400.

But, yes, if you bought at full retail and paid taxes, you would not be making 10%.

[KShine]

36 minutes ago, Manse1001 said:

Yes but not over night? As @redcell said, generally sets pretty much disappear off the shelves long before the 'retired tag' finally appears.  I'm merely commenting on the fact that people shouldn't panic that a set hasn't doubled in value over night just because it gets officially retired be Lego . . .  

I agree that there is no need to worry about this set, long term. Reasonable people shouldn't be expecting this set to double out of the gate

Regarding my comment - There have been so many false retirements that have come back to life, so until we see that tag, there is always some level of uncertainty. Also, when an end user searches for the Death Star, and sees the "Retired" tag, they are much more willing to pay the premium.

I could understand someone questioning the level of relevance of the retirement tag, but to state that they find it baffling as to why people think that the retired product tag has any impact whatsoever on how a product performs?

Regarding the DS, it will have some unusual performance issues. Too many people had to wait a very long time for it to retire. It was expensive. Many will feel the need to cash in at least some of their chips. Some newer investors with limited resources (likely looking for the quick score) will not stick around. Add to that the real/unreal fear of the new set, and you certainly will be having some initial issues. Not awful necessarily, but it certainly will be limiting gains for the short term performance.

Edited March 21, 2016 by KShine

[Manse1001]

23 minutes ago, KShine said:

I agree that there is no need to worry about this set, long term. Reasonable people shouldn't be expecting this set to double out of the gate

Regarding my comment - There have been so many false retirements that have come back to life, so until we see that tag, there is always some level of uncertainty. Also, when an end user searches for the Death Star, and sees the "Retired" tag, they are much more willing to pay the premium.

I could understand someone questioning the level of relevance of the retirement tag, but to state that they find it baffling as to why people think that the retired product tag has any impact whatsoever on how a product performs?

Regarding the DS, it will have some unusual performance issues. Too many people had to wait a very long time for it to retire. It was expensive. Many will feel the need to cash in at least some of their chips. Some newer investors with limited resources (likely looking for the quick score) will not stick around. Add to that the real/unreal fear of the new set, and you certainly will be having some initial issues. Not awful necessarily, but it certainly will be limiting gains for the short term performance.

I don't disagree, as I said I was merely pointing out the fact that I just can't get my head round the fact that people just expect sets to double over night due to them being officially retired by Lego ! If we look at the tumbler in the UK, a hugely hoarded set officially retired by Lego on the 27/03/15, here we are nearly 3 months later and you can still find it in our local Symths stores at RRP !! Then people wonder/worry that the set is going to be a non-performer and start flipping them for a £20 profit !!! I think people just need to be more patient is what I was getting at, and not to look at the retired label as reason for the set to double over night.