10188 - UCS: Death Star

[ad2001]

If you have Prime Now in your area, you may want to check if they still have DS ... I scored one yesterday like 6 hours after the first Prime Now post ... There were still at least one more half an hour after I bought mine .... No more now though ...

[tyclin]

2 hours ago, Alpinemaps said:

I took great pride in adding the "Retired" tag to this thread today.

I also got a good chuckle out of reading the first post in this thread.  It's been a long time.  Just over 4 years to the day when someone asked that famous question, "when will the Death Star be retired?"

duckyruiz, are you still here?

[newbie77]

when #75159 comes out we shall see how this one fares. i am sure we have had this topic beaten to death but again this is another one of massively hoarded set... probably after tumbler (#76023).

currently with 200 sellers lets see where this one goes. 

its very very interesting to see folks acting surprised or admiring current price of $540,00 @ amazon. 

540-(81 fees)= $459,00 (subtract shipping, doesn't matter FBA or FBM either way that puppy gonna cost pretty penny and net will be closer to $410).  it looks very well that decent number of folks are trying to jump ship on this :). 

in my book this one is under-performing. minimum sale price should be in the range of $560+ (at this time.. ).

Edited March 20, 2016 by newbie77

[Martae54]

Well the word "RETIRED " rings a different bell than that of the seven stages of sold out Lego puts a product thru..lol..and that just happened yesterday....I think the new version will be a model not a play set..spearheaded at the adult collector like our latest SW UCS sets have been, display pieces.. ( except for this Hoth crap) ..while 10188 was geared toward the" family build" together that has playability to connect generations but yet displays nicely too, just like the Ewok village..those that own 10143 may have something to worry about..of course I have no way of knowing..pure speculation ..

[binici]

Wish I would have kept at least two more...

[stephen_rockefeller]

I'm not so sure that this set is as hoarded as one might think. First the set is quite expensive at MSRP, secondly it is a HUGE box. Third no one was sure when or if it was going to retire. And lastly no one is sure of the impact (positive or negative) the new set will have on it. All these reasons may dissuade people from hoarding this set. I'm certain there are some who went all in but I don't think many have IMHO.

[Val-E]

As with T1 and PS, quite a few people will have chosen to get out while the going was good during the previous sold out periods and just after it sold out. However, it is currently experiencing a price fall in Europe which can only be attributed to an excess of offer - this has not happened to SSD.

A key factor will be when we get leaks of the new model and see how similar it is. If we are in a 7965 or 10199 situation, then expect mass flipping and the price to come crashing down. If it is substantially different in design and price point, things should be just fine but growth will be sluggish as with other recently retired exclusives.

[Rimmit]

4 hours ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

I'm not so sure that this set is as hoarded as one might think. First the set is quite expensive at MSRP, secondly it is a HUGE box. Third no one was sure when or if it was going to retire. And lastly no one is sure of the impact (positive or negative) the new set will have on it. All these reasons may dissuade people from hoarding this set. I'm certain there are some who went all in but I don't think many have IMHO.

It might not be, and this is anecdotal, so it might not have widespread applicability, but this set came out right as I was selling off the remainder of my inventory in 2008.  At the time, the current flip for many people I know was to sell of your Clone Turbo Tanks, and most went into 10188 HEAVY at the time.  One of the selling points was the minifigs.  No set had that many minifigs before and this was 8 years ago back when Minifig remakes weren't a dime a dozen, so people were buying these up in droves.  The fact that there are so many remakes of those figures really hurts the resale.  Before people would be inclined to buy the set just for Royal Guards, but now given the sheer number of minifigs from that set available elsewhere kills a fair amount of the minifig incentive to buy the set. 

My point is while it might not be as heavily invested in as off recent.... there have been nearly 8 years of people hoarding this set.  8 YEARS!!! George Bush was president!  The DJI was at 8000!   That is a long time, where various people have had accumulate 10188.  I retired from Legovesting and came back in that time span, and  I was SHOCKED when I first logged on hear in January to discover this had just recently went OOS.  I couldn't believe it.  Many of my cohorts who I was legovesting in back in the mid 2000's I had lost touch with, so they had not kept me informed that this had not yet retired, and that turned into a LOOOOONG Term hold.  I believe for this to get to 800 is likely in the 4-5 year range at least if not longer.  There are 198 sellers on Amazon alone not counting eBay, brick link, and people who don't even have it listed yet. 

I think while people might not have hoarded it recently, just the length of time people have had to buy this thing makes the supply ASTRONOMICAL compared to almost any other set in Lego history.  That further increases the # of used sets as well, further decreasing demand for people willing to buy a used set to build.  This set will rise over time, but it will be the slowest burner for a large set in Lego History given the of used and new sets out in the wild. 

Everyone kept calling out on the Tumbler as the most hoarded set of all time, but in terms of sheer volume 10188 should win out easily.  While the Tumbler was eaten alive by hoarders in the last month of it's life span, it was only available for 15-16 months.  Lego can only churn out so many $200 dollar sets in that time.  The Tumbler is already holding around 330-335 on Amazon, after 2 months of retirement.  That's $130 over it's RRP.  10188 is holding at 540 on Amazon.  That's $140 over it's RRP.  The Tumbler has been retired for a couple months less, and was heralded as THE MOST HOARDED SET OF ALL TIME, based on BP forums.  In terms of sheer number of sets sold to hoard per unit time it was.  However, volume-wise I am betting that 10188 has the most number sets in reseller hands from a volume standpoint AND the most number of sets in an actual built form as well for a large/exclusive set.  Both of which will make it difficult to climb over the next several years. 

 

Edited March 20, 2016 by Rimmit

[exciter1]

10 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

The Tumbler has been retired for a couple months less, and was heralded as THE MOST HOARDED SET OF ALL TIME, based on BP forums.

This is just an inside BP joke.  Everyone knows it's the VW T1 Camper Van.

[Val-E]

The point is that sub 100 USD sets like T1, 9493, Delorean etc can survive being über hoarded because there is just such demand for them that the flippers´ stock can be absorbed very quickly and the price rise is sustained because - even at 2x RRP, they are still relatively affordable.

For the premium priced sets, it is a bit tougher to weed out stock. As mentioned before, DS has been unavailable for several stretches and dates back to the time when exclusives could be found for half RRP so a number of original investors could and should have sold at those points for a tidy profit.

Jan 2016 was another good out point as a lot of resellers has not cottoned on to it being gone for good and we had the usual post EOL boost as prices shot up and there were a number of sales per day. TFA hype also helped a lot. I sold a a couple during that point for double buy-in and now regret not selling  more as it seems that we are in a holding pattern as for every set sold at around 500-550 euros, another one or two come onto the market, capping any growth possibilities.

I guess for anyone that missed those get-out points, it´s a question of being patient and waiting to see how things evolve - the remake and new movies are sure to play their part regarding future demand.

[exciter1]

2 minutes ago, Val-E said:

The point is that sub 100 USD sets like T1, 9493, Delorean etc can survive being über hoarded because there is just such demand for them that the flippers´ stock can be absorbed very quickly and the price rise is sustained because - even at 2x RRP, they are still relatively affordable.

For the premium priced sets, it is a bit tougher to weed out stock. As mentioned before, DS has been unavailable for several stretches and dates back to the time when exclusives could be found for half RRP so a number of original investors could and should have sold at those points for a tidy profit.

Jan 2016 was another good out point as a lot of resellers has not cottoned on to it being gone for good and we had the usual post EOL boost as prices shot up and there were a number of sales per day. TFA hype also helped a lot. I sold a a couple during that point for double buy-in and now regret not selling  more as it seems that we are in a holding pattern as for every set sold at around 500-550 euros, another one or two come onto the market, capping any growth possibilities.

I guess for anyone that missed those get-out points, it´s a question of being patient and waiting to see how things evolve - the remake and new movies are sure to play their part regarding future demand.

Sorry, I didn't know there was a point.

[mudcatsfan]

41 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

It might not be, and this is anecdotal, so it might not have widespread applicability, but this set came out right as I was selling off the remainder of my inventory in 2008.  At the time, the current flip for many people I know was to sell of your Clone Turbo Tanks, and most went into 10188 HEAVY at the time.  One of the selling points was the minifigs.  No set had that many minifigs before and this was 8 years ago back when Minifig remakes weren't a dime a dozen, so people were buying these up in droves.  The fact that there are so many remakes of those figures really hurts the resale.  Before people would be inclined to buy the set just for Royal Guards, but now given the sheer number of minifigs from that set available elsewhere kills a fair amount of the minifig incentive to buy the set. 

My point is while it might not be as heavily invested in as off recent.... there have been nearly 8 years of people hoarding this set.  8 YEARS!!! George Bush was president!  The DJI was at 8000!   That is a long time, where various people have had accumulate 10188.  I retired from Legovesting and came back in that time span, and  I was SHOCKED when I first logged on hear in January to discover this had just recently went OOS.  I couldn't believe it.  Many of my cohorts who I was legovesting in back in the mid 2000's I had lost touch with, so they had not kept me informed that this had not yet retired, and that turned into a LOOOOONG Term hold.  I believe for this to get to 800 is likely in the 4-5 year range at least if not longer.  There are 198 sellers on Amazon alone not counting eBay, brick link, and people who don't even have it listed yet. 

I think while people might not have hoarded it recently, just the length of time people have had to buy this thing makes the supply ASTRONOMICAL compared to almost any other set in Lego history.  That further increases the # of used sets as well, further decreasing demand for people willing to buy a used set to build.  This set will rise over time, but it will be the slowest burner for a large set in Lego History given the of used and new sets out in the wild. 

Everyone kept calling out on the Tumbler as the most hoarded set of all time, but in terms of sheer volume 10188 should win out easily.  While the Tumbler was eaten alive by hoarders in the last month of it's life span, it was only available for 15-16 months.  Lego can only churn out so many $200 dollar sets in that time.  The Tumbler is already holding around 330-335 on Amazon, after 2 months of retirement.  That's $130 over it's RRP.  10188 is holding at 540 on Amazon.  That's $140 over it's RRP.  The Tumbler has been retired for a couple months less, and was heralded as THE MOST HOARDED SET OF ALL TIME, based on BP forums.  In terms of sheer number of sets sold to hoard per unit time it was.  However, volume-wise I am betting that 10188 has the most number sets in reseller hands from a volume standpoint AND the most number of sets in an actual built form as well for a large/exclusive set.  Both of which will make it difficult to climb over the next several years. 

 

Hey there Rimmit. Thank you for the very interesting historical perspective. I certainly wasn't in the game in 2008 so it's very interesting to hear about how folks jumped from clone tanks to the Star. 

Well I fully agree with your point about the mini figure value diminishment and the sheer amount of time that was available, if you check out the long running  poll at the top of this thread you'll notice not many people claim to own this set.

You can also check the poll Link in my signature file which was created after Europe announced the set was retired. It was still available in the US. This means the US had a head start on purchasing this set knowing for a fact it was retired. Even with that knowledge very few people seem to have the set in great numbers.

Then consider that the people coming to this forum and reading this thread and then actually taking the time to post would most likely be Death Star owners.

With all that considered and seeing how few Death Stars claim to be owned I can't imagine this it is very hoarded as one might think. Likely due to its enormous size extreme cost and amount of time you would have had to have held it you still on one at this point.

It's also entirely possible that people have not clicked on the polls to brag about how many death stars they own, but I find it usually goes the other direction.  A few loud voices on the internet tend to create the perception of widespread ownership.

I don't claim to know anything for a fact and I certainly don't know whether a remake is coming or not, but I do think this set is less hoarded than commonly perceived.

[iahawks550]

I don't think this set is WIDELY hoarded at all. But I think those that have hoarded it, have enormous numbers of them and will control the market. 99% of those on this site are relatively small time investors who didn't dump $10,000 into this set to own 25-40 (depending on buy-in price).

That being said, a person can "flip" this set right now on Ebay and make a minimum of 10% profit without even trying.

[Rimmit]

19 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

Hey there Rimmit. Thank you for the very interesting historical perspective. I certainly wasn't in the game in 2008 so it's very interesting to hear about how folks jumped from clone tanks to the Star. 

Well I fully agree with your point about the mini figure value diminishment and the sheer amount of time that was available, if you check out the long running  poll at the top of this thread you'll notice not many people claim to own this set.

You can also check the poll Link in my signature file which was created after Europe announced the set was retired. It was still available in the US. This means the US had a head start on purchasing this set knowing for a fact it was retired. Even with that knowledge very few people seem to have the set in great numbers.

Then consider that the people coming to this forum and reading this thread and then actually taking the time to post would most likely be Death Star owners.

With all that considered and seeing how few Death Stars claim to be owned I can't imagine this it is very hoarded as one might think. Likely due to its enormous size extreme cost and amount of time you would have had to have held it you still on one at this point.

It's also entirely possible that people have not clicked on the polls to brag about how many death stars they own, but I find it usually goes the other direction.  A few loud voices on the internet tend to create the perception of widespread ownership.

I don't claim to know anything for a fact and I certainly don't know whether a remake is coming or not, but I do think this set is less hoarded than commonly perceived.

Thanks.  I find everything that has happened in Lego from 2008-2016 quite intriguing.  So much has changed in just 8 years.  Lego has gone from a sure fire bet, to something that requires strategy akin to the stockmarket.  It really is intriguing, and I am learning a lot fast about the changes in the market since I did this last. 

I think the point I tried to make, and did not make it well, was that because the set has been out for so long (It has been out well before the days of BP), is that this set more so than ANY other set, has a high potential to be hoarded by people not on BP.  Simply because the set existed well before the existence of BP.  Again, anecdotally, many people I knew weren't huge into Legovesting, most did it to earn a small amount of extra cash to fund various hobbies, buying lego's for the kids, etc.  These people do not participate in the brickpicker community.  These are "casual" investors.  These are people who aren't big into strategizing, looking at exact ROI's etc.  This set has a high potential for that because it was around for SOOO long. 

While polls can be helpful, they are just a small segment of a very large market.  Avoiding politics on here, but just look at the polls in relation to the current state of the presidential election.  Even scientific polls have a margin for error.  Sometimes enormous.

I just think there is a high potential for "stealth" investors for this set due to it's time on the market.  Combine that with the fact that for a $400 dollar set, it has 198 sellers on Amazon, and the most comparable recent item is SSD with only 56 sellers on US Amazon right now.  That it is a TALL mountain to climb for a $400 dollar set. As Val-E stated, it takes a lot of time to move a $550 dollar item vs items in the $100-150 range.  Eating through stock at $550 can be painful.  This will not move at the speed of Delorean.  (Although at 88mph, I am betting the DS despite it's mass, due to it's existence in space with minimal friction moves significantly faster.)

And while not considered "hoarding,"  the kids and adults who have bought and owned this set for play or display play a part as well, as they add to the overall supply whether it was their intent to sell it in the future or not.  These used sets typically will hit the market one way or another eventually. Sometimes through estates sales if it comes to that, but more often as kids and adults have life changes.  This further pushes the market down.

I do agree that the amount of "hoarding" is likely less than perceived, however, the number of owners is high.  Likely the highest of any set over $200 ever.

Edited March 20, 2016 by Rimmit

[BrickLegacy]

1 hour ago, exciter1 said:

This is just an inside BP joke.  Everyone knows it's the VW T1 Camper Van.

I already lost patience on the T1.  I can't imagine holding onto a pile of these huge DS boxes for years while they continue to produce them, regardless of discount or buy-in.  At some point you have to consider the opportunity cost of not investing in other sets, big or small. 

 

[Bold-Arrow]

1 minute ago, BrickLegacy said:

I already lost patience on the T1.  I can't imagine holding onto a pile of these huge DS boxes for years while they continue to produce them, regardless of discount or buy-in.  At some point you have to consider the opportunity cost of not investing in other sets, big or small. 

 

we don't do that here. u must be new 

[Alpinemaps]

T1 isn't a sub $100 set

[Guest]

The prices of big exclusives fall now and yet some still claim the after market is just the same as its always been. 

[KShine]

1 hour ago, MarxMarvelous said:

The prices of big exclusives fall now and yet some still claim the after market is just the same as its always been. 

That sounds like bubble talk, but isn't this really just an opportunity to buy more GOLD at discount prices!

[asharerin]

7 hours ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

I'm not so sure that this set is as hoarded as one might think. First the set is quite expensive at MSRP, secondly it is a HUGE box. Third no one was sure when or if it was going to retire. And lastly no one is sure of the impact (positive or negative) the new set will have on it. All these reasons may dissuade people from hoarding this set. I'm certain there are some who went all in but I don't think many have IMHO.

I wish that was true but the numbers do not lie. 201 sellers on Amazon is a very large amount. There is a huge number of these sets out there for resale.

 

1 hour ago, MarxMarvelous said:

The prices of big exclusives fall now and yet some still claim the after market is just the same as its always been. 

When Amazon FBA prices are lower than ebay prices for the same item you can be sure the market is very different from what it has always been.

 

[exciter1]

12 minutes ago, asharerin said:

When Amazon FBA prices are lower than ebay prices for the same item you can be sure the market is very different from what it has always been.

It's just the circle of life.  Prices were higher on EBay in 2001.

[shortyz]

We need to form something like OPEC and control the prices ourselves.

[JRandall]

I feel sorry for anyone trying to get into LEGO investing within the last 6 month with how much the numbers have swelled, I would not recommend it. DS may take 2-3 more years just to double if it can even do that because of the amount of them in the hands of buyers. There are dozens of new large volume re-sellers that have popped up in the last year also.   You might want to look at other popular toy lines.  In fact I purchased one other toy line that "seemed" not as popular when I started LEGO investing 2 years ago and gained an 800% return on a recent product I just sold, the others 400% and 600% respectively. We're talking sub $150 sets when bought that were sold for multiples of hundreds, more than one type in the last 2 years. I should have put most of my money in those products and I would have done far better.

[rcdb1984]

aka nerf guns

[Bold-Arrow]

Well there goes that... Off to the Funko Pop thread .. Oh wait .. Nvm