10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Roy vd M.]

2 hours ago, torville1976 said:

Having read previous posts, I think it will be highly unlikely that sets will attract the kind of costs that the UCS Millenium Falcon now commands. If I can keep my 4 year old, lego-addicted son from breaking the DS then perhaps I can pass it on to him when, in 15 years he may have a rather valuable set on his hands.

I have a 10240 RED 5 X Wing which I haven't opened yet.

Should I as I love building these things having just rekindled a hobby I left alone for over twenty five years or is it more prudent to keep it in storage?

Finally, I have read rumours of a new UCS Falcon being released. Any thoughts?

 

@future value of Death Star 10188: for sure it won't become as valuable as the UCS Millennium Falcon. That was a more expensive item to begin with and many fewer sets were sold. Many fewer Lego investors were around then. Finally it's one of the best performing Lego sets of all time, so it would only be a coincidence if DS topped that. Opinions on how DS will appreciate over time vary and nobody can tell you the future. Read this thread to get to know many opinions, in order to be able to fine tune your own. 

Edit: the build or store-question I had read wrong, I thought you were still deliberating whether to open the 10188 box. Please read the below answer in that context. 

@build or store: I can't answer that for you. After having fine-tuned your opinion as mentioned, it's up to you to decide what to do. If you'll build it, keep every single thing you'll find in the box. Don't even throw away the plastic bags. Don't fold the box. This way when you'll try to sell it later on, a collector can see you're a as serious as he is and in his mind all bricks incl. spares are most probably there. To keep the set in best condition, consider dismantling it after a few weeks, when you've lost interest. That way it won't become dusty, parts / minifigures won't get lost and there will be a minimum of discoloring (especially applicable if your house isn't smoke-free). Also, consider not applying the stickers. 

@new UCS Millennium Falcon: these rumours are discussed in this thread. If you'll read the last, say, 10 pages you'll be up to date. Until now it's not clear what the set will look like. If it is going to be an UCS it will probably be the size of Disney Epcot's Spaceship Earth as there's talk going on the newly to be designed UCS sets will be playable sets and preferably minifigure-scale. If however the prospect of a billion pieces UCS set will seem disadvantageous for TLG, it will probably either issue a Death Star similar to 10188 (updated fashion / build techniques) or a UCS version of the first Death Star in the way they did the second Death Star, 10143. Or they will just think of something smarter than the above three options. Many questions have arisen, many have been answered by "I think that" or "I reckon". For example, why would TLG issue a new Death Star set now that the focus is expected to be on the new Star Wars film? (Educated) guesses and answers are, as mentioned, to be found in this very thread. 

Edited January 6, 2016 by Roy vd M.

[rcdb1984]

Spoiler

you would think after 3 death stars they should give up by now

 

[inversion]

LEGO returns are only good if you buy at retirement. This also a thing those stupid articles don't tell you. Wonder how people will evaluate their returns on DS in light of this, specifically if you bought in years ago.

Edited January 7, 2016 by inversion

[stephen_rockefeller]

HmmmmmmmI bought in years ago and do not consider it a bad investment......to each his/her own I guess. 

[inversion]

24 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

HmmmmmmmI bought in years ago and do not consider it a bad investment......to each his/her own I guess. 

To compare it with any form of investment you have to compare it with returns over the same interval, say a year. 

If T is the length of your holding period in years, then you can get yearly return R:

R=(price_sold/price_bought)^(1/T)-1

Say DS doubles in 2 years from now and you sell it then.

• If T=2, because you bought it now, then R=0.41, e.g. 41% yearly return.
• If T=4 because you bought it 2 years ago then R=0.19, e.g. 19%

So it matters a lot. You could have made profitable trades with the money that was invested in DS. The realized average returns of lots of people who held it for long will be quite low compared to some other sets with less CAGR, but shorter holding period.

Edited January 7, 2016 by inversion

[stephen_rockefeller]

That's all good but I look at in much simpler terms because I am a little dumb. I buy something for X hold then sell for 2-3 times X = good investment.

[jaisonline]

32 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

That's all good but I look at in much simpler terms because I am a little dumb. I buy something for X hold then sell for 2-3 times X = good investment.

Sounds solid to me.

[Mos_Eisley]

37 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

That's all good but I look at in much simpler terms because I am a little dumb. I buy something for X hold then sell for 2-3 times X = good investment.

I'm with you. I think there's far too many graphs, charts and analyzing for something that's pretty straightforward. 

[waydog]

Instead of investing in the death star, you could have also invested in something that may have lost money and thus make that whole formula work in your favor too.  There are always variables anyone can throw into an investing formula to make their argument make a lot of sense but there is always 100 sides to each investment coin.  The most valuable commodity alive is still time and these formulas can surely waste that tremendously.

I can give 5 great reasons to invest in apple stock right now and 5 reasons not to.  As with everything , there will be an oppurtunity cost to every single decision ever.

Edited January 8, 2016 by waydog

[gregpj]

On 1/6/2016 at 11:32 AM, torville1976 said:

 If I can keep my 4 year old, lego-addicted son from breaking the DS then perhaps I can pass it on to him when, in 15 years he may have a rather valuable set on his hands.
 

I've posted these before, but this is what happens when you're three year old decides the DS should die...

This was all that was left "unscathed" ..

It reassembled in just a few hours with only 7 or 8 extra parts.

[Ciglione]

8 minutes ago, gregpj said:

I've posted these before, but this is what happens when you're three year old decides the DS should die...

This was all that was left "unscathed" ..

It reassembled in just a few hours with only 7 or 8 extra parts.

Your son or daughter did not get the memo? DS finally retired!

[torville1976]

18 minutes ago, gregpj said:

I've posted these before, but this is what happens when you're three year old decides the DS should die...

This was all that was left "unscathed" ..

It reassembled in just a few hours with only 7 or 8 extra parts.

Thankfully, I haven't had a traumatic experience like that. We've had the spring loaded and main guns being pulled off (the latter being dropped and turning into about a hundred separate pieces!) and that rather flimsy barricade continually having to be reattached but that is so far about it. We will have a play session this weekend to stem the desire to want to play unsupervised.

Edited January 8, 2016 by torville1976

[Littlek9b]

Took my 9 year old son 6 months to build DS...finished over Christmas...b/c his 2 little sisters demolished it about 3 times and mixed all the pieces in with elves sets. Not good for sibling bonding...

[stephen_rockefeller]

8 minutes ago, Littlek9b said:

Took my 9 year old son 6 months to build DS...finished over Christmas...b/c his 2 little sisters demolished it about 3 times and mixed all the pieces in with elves sets. Not good for sibling bonding...

Who would let their kids do such a thing

[Littlek9b]

Well I got really good at reassembling DS! Sadly that prompted me to open a pet shop over holidays. Now I'm hooked on modulars. Sigh... Keep eyeing palace cinema now.  Sorry for derailing thread...

[fossilrock]

1 hour ago, Littlek9b said:

Well I got really good at reassembling DS! Sadly that prompted me to open a pet shop over holidays. Now I'm hooked on modulars. Sigh... Keep eyeing palace cinema now.  Sorry for derailing thread...

Join the club.  Once you crack open a modular, you might as well have just gone to the dark side.  I actually find most of the modulars more fun to build than most of the star wars sets (minus some UCS sets)..

[Littlek9b]

Yep found dark side...maybe I'll MOC those  5 pet shops I'll never be able to sell. Had to buy ucs tie fighter for hubby over Christmas just so he couldn't harass me for opening the "investment" stash. 

[Val-E]

Cheapest BIN on euro Ebay now 670 euros. Seems to be rising faster than SSD.

[Alpinemaps]

An open box, but sealed inner boxes DS sold on Goodwill yesterday for $500

[Starkthunder]

19 minutes ago, Alpinemaps said:

An open box, but sealed inner boxes DS sold on Goodwill yesterday for $500

Curently 3 listed on shopgoodwill.

open box with sealed inner boxes @380 with 4 days to go

open box with sealed inner boxes @415  with 3 days to go

used @302 with 2 days to go

[legogregors]

7 minutes ago, Starkthunder said:

Curently 3 listed on shopgoodwill.

open box with sealed inner boxes @380 with 4 days to go

open box with sealed inner boxes @415  with 3 days to go

used @302 with 2 days to go

Could these be Target returns?  I saw goodwill mentioned as a possible landing spot for in store returns.

[chipbee]

On 08/01/2016 at 9:58 PM, fossilrock said:

Join the club.  Once you crack open a modular, you might as well have just gone to the dark side.  I actually find most of the modulars more fun to build than most of the star wars sets (minus some UCS sets)..

Haha, you are absolutely right. Any modular or star wars ucs sitting in home of a investor has a very high risk of being built, even though original intention is to sell the unopened set. And then it becomes an addiction. Speaking from personal experience.

[Deadfraggle]

23 minutes ago, chipbee said:

Haha, you are absolutely right. Any modular or star wars ucs sitting in home of a investor has a very high risk of being built, even though original intention is to sell the unopened set. And then it becomes an addiction. Speaking from personal experience.

Speak for yourself, my intention was to build them from the start. I do have investment copies though.

[Buchimuer]

I'm still thinking of build it....

[teruhata]

Friend of mine told me the Death Star was up in amazon at original price on Monday...only 2 left by the time he bought them..