10188 - UCS: Death Star

[jaisonline]

11 minutes ago, Follows Closely said:

You overstate the reliability of this sites brickfolio. I don't know a single big time investor that keeps a brickfolio up to date. The small guys sure, but if you have 50K, 100K, 200K+ in Lego you don't have time or the need to update a brickfolio. I would be confident stating that the brickfolio more closely represents the small investor, which will not be hording 10188 like the big boys.

Some big time investors do keep  their brickfolio pretty much current.  These folks just don't advertise it. 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

5 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

Some big time investors do keep  their brickfolio pretty much current.  These folks just don't advertise it. 

The two biggest investors I know who literally have warehouses and 40ft containers with 10,000s of sets are not members of any LEGO forum. One guy I know in particular sells massive job lots of CITY sets on eBay and he often gets his stock at -75% or more and he's currently sitting on over 300x R2-D2 and 200x SSDs that he said he got for -50%. If only I had the nuts to rob the place!

Emazers, is that your bother (told me his name is George) that lives in Hampshire, UK?

Believe me guys, we are SMALL FRY !!!

[legoray01]

In for number 3.  I had number three during the sold out run of the summer but it was shipped from target.  I held it for ninety days then returned it as it was slightly damaged during shipping.

Used $115 in points, $210 from a City Lot I sold yesterday  $20 from a target cube.  $65 from cashing in my change jar and $20 in my pocket to put me over the top.    Lego store guy (We all now their reliability) says end of the year they will be gone.    At $400 a pop I don't have capital for a lot but when they are gone these will be $550 overnight (As history has shown us). target was out last night, Wal-Mart is out today.  I don't think they exist in the wild like they did when it went to sold out in the summer.  The warning shot has been fired and I don't think there will be a reprieve this time.  When it goes Sold Out it will be done.  (IMHO) 

[conceptmachine]

When it's all said and done, what do you really have to loose?  I loose 10k everyday the stock market drops 50 points.  I may loose $800. For 15 of these.  I don't mind!

Pessimism runs deep in many.

Edited December 11, 2015 by conceptmachine

[Sozial]

45 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

The two biggest investors I know who literally have warehouses and 40ft containers with 10,000s of sets are not members of any LEGO forum. One guy I know in particular sells massive job lots of CITY sets on eBay and he often gets his stock at -75% or more and he's currently sitting on over 300x R2-D2 and 200x SSDs that he said he got for -50%. If only I had the nuts to rob the place!

Emazers, is that your bother (told me his name is George) that lives in Hampshire, UK?

Believe me guys, we are SMALL FRY !!!

The only question is how he got R2D2 and SSD for 50% off. I mean up to 40% if you are really lucky with exclusives but 50% just seems like a lie to me.

[jerryherb]

1 minute ago, Sozial said:

The only question is how he got R2D2 and SSD for 50% off. I mean up to 40% if you are really lucky with exclusives but 50% just seems like a lie to me.

containers full of R2's fall of trucks everyday

[Yinchuan]

42 minutes ago, legoray01 said:

In for number 3.  I had number three during the sold out run of the summer but it was shipped from target.  I held it for ninety days then returned it as it was slightly damaged during shipping.

Used $115 in points, $210 from a City Lot I sold yesterday  $20 from a target cube.  $65 from cashing in my change jar and $20 in my pocket to put me over the top.    Lego store guy (We all now their reliability) says end of the year they will be gone.    At $400 a pop I don't have capital for a lot but when they are gone these will be $550 overnight (As history has shown us). target was out last night, Wal-Mart is out today.  I don't think they exist in the wild like they did when it went to sold out in the summer.  The warning shot has been fired and I don't think there will be a reprieve this time.  When it goes Sold Out it will be done.  (IMHO) 

So assuming an immediate jump to $550, after fees and shipping, this would mostly be the break even point, which is good to know that you can quickly recoup your investment.

BUT, the problem is those that bought in at a discount (and I am sure there are many) would allow for a lower listing price to reach their break-even. I don't doubt that there are many investors that have the connections to buy in at 40% or more off of MSRP. I would bet that many could list under $500 and still pull a profit where most who bought in at MSRP will be waiting a long time to be able to have their higher list price noticed by buyers. 

[Miami Bomb Squad]

2 hours ago, jaisonline said:

 

you are braver than me to throw more cash at 10188 with the uncertainly around it and so many other sets to buy

Uncertainty = Opportunity 
Always has and Always will.  

[trekgate502]

my my

we all like things to be guaranteed don't we

nothing is guaranteed well except passbook savings I suppose

[newbie77]

46 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

When it's all said and done, what do you really have to loose?  I loose 10k everyday the stock market drops 50 points.  I may loose $800. For 15 of these.  I don't mind!

Pessimism runs deep in many.

i believe there is a big difference between "loose" and "lose"

loose: not firmly or tightly fixed in place; detached or able to be detached.

lose: be deprived of or cease to have or retain (something).

 

 

Edited December 11, 2015 by newbie77

[Hansomebricks]

49 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

When it's all said and done, what do you really have to loose?  I loose 10k everyday the stock market drops 50 points.  I may loose $800. For 15 of these.  I don't mind!

Pessimism runs deep in many.

Well for starters, you lose the ability to spell lose. 

[waddamon]

1 hour ago, Follows Closely said:

You overstate the reliability of this sites brickfolio. I don't know a single big time investor that keeps a brickfolio up to date. The small guys sure, but if you have 50K, 100K, 200K+ in Lego you don't have time or the need to update a brickfolio. I would be confident stating that the brickfolio more closely represents the small investor, which will not be hording 10188 like the big boys.

HI, I do, keep mine updated religiously as well as my other records.  To make money you have to know what your money is doing.  So now you know one "big" investor that does.  I also don't consider myself big.

[legoray01]

10 minutes ago, Yinchuan said:

So assuming an immediate jump to $550, after fees and shipping, this would mostly be the break even point, which is good to know that you can quickly recoup your investment.

BUT, the problem is those that bought in at a discount (and I am sure there are many) would allow for a lower listing price to reach their break-even. I don't doubt that there are many investors that have the connections to buy in at 40% or more off of MSRP. I would bet that many could list under $500 and still pull a profit where most who bought in at MSRP will be waiting a long time to be able to have their higher list price noticed by buyers. 

Fair, there may have been discounts out there to be had by folks who can swing deals.    Wish I had a few  SSDs at MSRP.  But three 10188's represents 3% of my Lego portfolio.  It is a question of diversification and scarcity.  Lego is telling you they are going to make this set scarce.  The writing is on the wall.  Each has to make their own decision.  My strategy has always called for three of these to be stocked for me.  Once it is gone and it hits $550 or so I have at least an option for break even.  My strategy also doesn't call for a quick flip.  I am buying now with the idea of divesting in four or five years.  I am not going to make money quick Flipping these but following my Buy and hold strategy I am confident I am not losing money on these either.  For those who bought years ago - great.   They even bought at a discount.  Great.  I did not, I bought other sets and have sold those at a profit over the last few years.  Net effect - I'm still good when it comes to the use of capital - Those $230 in sets I sold yesterday cost me $140  - I netted out $90 in profits on those which I used to buy into a set that is going to be a solid performer. 

This year  I have turned over over 10% of my collection.  Some were long term holds and others were quick flips.  Part of the plan.  I am used to selling old and reallocating the money into what I believe is a good investment at the time.  I believe having a few 10188s is a good investment and I am happily placing my money there.  Trust me, I have winners and losers in my collection so I have made this choice numerous times in my investing career. 

Your point is valid and I am not debating that.  The question I had to ask myself - how many Death Stars do I want to have in four years?  The answer for me is 3 at $400 a piece or 1 if I can sell the other two and pay for the third one free and clear.  There are others who are in different situations and they get to make that call for themselves.  Personally, I am good with my strategy because it works for me.  My advice - if you have zero - get one - now as it will cost you more when it is gone.  IF you have one already well than you have to review your investment strategy and your ability to take on a long term high ticket hold.  There is no formula for success except one that each individual finds on their own for themselves.  My opinion and I am living by that opinion.    Buying today is not the ticket to QFLL profits.  I don't see that on the horizon. 

[mfortunek]

12 minutes ago, legoray01 said:

Fair, there may have been discounts out there to be had by folks who can swing deals.    Wish I had a few  SSDs at MSRP.  But three 10188's represents 3% of my Lego portfolio.  It is a question of diversification and scarcity.  Lego is telling you they are going to make this set scarce.  The writing is on the wall.  Each has to make their own decision.  My strategy has always called for three of these to be stocked for me.  Once it is gone and it hits $550 or so I have at least an option for break even.  My strategy also doesn't call for a quick flip.  I am buying now with the idea of divesting in four or five years.  I am not going to make money quick Flipping these but following my Buy and hold strategy I am confident I am not losing money on these either.  For those who bought years ago - great.   They even bought at a discount.  Great.  I did not, I bought other sets and have sold those at a profit over the last few years.  Net effect - I'm still good when it comes to the use of capital - Those $230 in sets I sold yesterday cost me $140  - I netted out $90 in profits on those which I used to buy into a set that is going to be a solid performer. 

This year  I have turned over over 10% of my collection.  Some were long term holds and others were quick flips.  Part of the plan.  I am used to selling old and reallocating the money into what I believe is a good investment at the time.  I believe having a few 10188s is a good investment and I am happily placing my money there.  Trust me, I have winners and losers in my collection so I have made this choice numerous times in my investing career. 

Your point is valid and I am not debating that.  The question I had to ask myself - how many Death Stars do I want to have in four years?  The answer for me is 3 at $400 a piece or 1 if I can sell the other two and pay for the third one free and clear.  There are others who are in different situations and they get to make that call for themselves.  Personally, I am good with my strategy because it works for me.  My advice - if you have zero - get one - now as it will cost you more when it is gone.  IF you have one already well than you have to review your investment strategy and your ability to take on a long term high ticket hold.  There is no formula for success except one that each individual finds on their own for themselves.  My opinion and I am living by that opinion.    Buying today is not the ticket to QFLL profits.  I don't see that on the horizon. 

Great post.

Have a plan.

Know what you're about.

Do YOUR thing.

Smart fella.

[biking_tiger]

15 minutes ago, mfortunek said:

Great post.

Have a plan.

Know what you're about.

Do YOUR thing.

Smart fella.

Do you count panicking and buying more than my credit card can hold in a month with hopes to flip for big profits and then return all these sets to TRU when it doesn't pan out a plan? 

(In other words, every successful investor should have a plan.)

Edited December 11, 2015 by biking_tiger

[Average Guy]

4 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

I still refuse to take the bait with this over-produced, over-hoarded and butt-ugly "Dolls House" for boys. I still think that R5 will be a better choice % wise.

agreed. I don't own a single copy and never want 1.

[jaisonline]

10188 is a great set to own if you are even a seldom lego builder.   let's not forgot that.  regardless of profits, lego sets are meant to be built.

[gbg108]

12 minutes ago, Average Guy said:

agreed. I don't own a single copy and never want 1.

I'm confused why people with no faith in this set even bother to read/post in this thread? I certainly understand the skeptics who are still on the fence trying to decide what to do, but the people that think this set is a total loser, why even open this thread? I mean, do whatever you want but it seems like a strange use of time...

Edited December 11, 2015 by gbg108

[Yinchuan]

34 minutes ago, mfortunek said:

Great post.

Have a plan.

Know what you're about.

Do YOUR thing.

Smart fella.

Agreed. Excellent post!

[jerryherb]

2 minutes ago, gbg108 said:

I'm confused why people with no faith in this set even bother to read/post in this thread? I certainly understand the skeptics who are still on the fence trying to decide what to do, but the people that think this set is a total loser, why even open this thread? I mean, do whatever you want but it seems like a strange use of time...

its called "work" in these parts

[Emodular]

6 minutes ago, gbg108 said:

I'm confused why people with no faith in this set even bother to read/post in this thread? I certainly understand the skeptics who are still on the fence trying to decide what to do, but the people that think this set is a total loser, why even open this thread? I mean, do whatever you want but it seems like a strange use of time...

they're trying to convince themselves....

[gbg108]

12 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

10188 is a great set to own if you are even a seldom lego builder.   let's not forgot that.  regardless of profits, lego sets are meant to be built.

I've never built it but I have one stashed away for my 3 year old son in ~7 years. 2022 should be a great Christmas! (Unless it turns out he doesn't like Lego in which case Christmas is canceled)

[botchy123]

6 minutes ago, gbg108 said:

I've never built it but I have one stashed away for my 3 year old son in ~7 years. 2022 should be a great Christmas! (Unless it turns out he doesn't like Lego in which case Christmas is canceled)

Pop the seals now, it wont be so painful 

[KShine]

26 minutes ago, gbg108 said:

I'm confused why people with no faith in this set even bother to read/post in this thread? I certainly understand the skeptics who are still on the fence trying to decide what to do, but the people that think this set is a total loser, why even open this thread? I mean, do whatever you want but it seems like a strange use of time...

I suspect that it would be for the same reason responses/debates regarding your post might go on for many pages.

Most posts are repetitive nonsense (not all, but most). I am pretty certain that if we ran an auto post program recycling random posts from over the years - most people wouldn't even notice.

Edited December 11, 2015 by KShine

[gbg108]

5 minutes ago, botchy123 said:

Pop the seals now, it wont be so painful 

Don't I know it! This is why my TH is still in the box. But I'm wiser now. Now I buy most of my personal builds from AWD so I don't have to face that crossroads again