10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Guest TabbyBoy]

13 hours ago, darkhorseoflego said:

Already selling for a 10% increase here in the UK which isn't bad...

A loss then when you take into account eBay and PayPal fees ;-)

[jerryherb]

my BMs had 20+ each last week so definitely go there first. i already got my stale fill of these SOBs

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I still refuse to take the bait with this over-produced, over-hoarded and butt-ugly "Dolls House" for boys. I still think that R5 will be a better choice % wise.

[stephen_rockefeller]

10 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

A loss then when you take into account eBay and PayPal fees ;-)

Are you assuming everyone paid RRP? I sure hope not.

[Sprocket77]

7 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I thinking as a Brit where this set is rarely discounted.

Smyths had it 20% off in September

[Sauromosis]

Not enough Miley...

[Yinchuan]

40 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Are you assuming everyone paid RRP? I sure hope not.

This. When I think about all y'all clipping Gramma's coupons x8 years, I would never be able to compete price-wise for years if ever. I'll buy the new one!

[conceptmachine]

The new one doesn't stop me from tossing a couple more on the pile.  If it was a 100% copy of the current,  minus minifigs, I'd still get it. 

Edited December 11, 2015 by conceptmachine

[jaisonline]

11 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

The new one doesn't stop me from tossing a couple more on the pile.  If it was a 100% copy of the current,  minus minifigs, I'd still get it. 

 

you are braver than me to throw more cash at 10188 with the uncertainly around it and so many other sets to buy

[conceptmachine]

I didn't get well off financially by doing what everyone else does.

[Yinchuan]

12 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

The new one doesn't stop me from tossing a couple more on the pile.  If it was a 100% copy of the current,  minus minifigs, I'd still get it. 

I have a 7965 MF you can buy to fly around it if you would like!

[jaisonline]

11 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

I didn't get well off financially by doing what everyone else does.

i totally understand your thought process but this is different.  the extra long production run, the stash every reseller has, a possible refresh in the works, the size and weight of the 10188 box (storage and shipping to think about), the 'dated' look of the minifigs which are a strong selling point of this set and a direct refresh means a cheaper option for people who want to buy a doll-house-like death star

[No More Monkeys]

1 hour ago, sauromosis said:

Not enough Miley...

Someone had to think of the children. ..

[mudcatsfan]

9 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

  .......... the stash every reseller has.......

I fully agree with your other points, but this one.

The stash every reseller has, except 77% of respondents to the most popular discussion topic, on the most popular lego investing site who have between 0-2 ?

There are only 2 people in the world who have any clue how hoarded (or not) this thing is. I feel like they've dropped hints over the years that we'd all be surprised how few of these are in reseller hands. This thing is NOT easily hoardable due to the size, weight, expense, perception of imortality etc. 

It's like common sense. Everyone assumes everyone else has some, but if you check, they probably don't.

 

 

[marcandre]

6 minutes ago, No More Monkeys said:

Someone had to think of the children. ..

[Darth_Raichu]

11 minutes ago, No More Monkeys said:

Someone had to think of the children. ..

 

8 minutes ago, marcandre said:

 

Too easy but this is Friday....

 

[conceptmachine]

I agree with that assessment!  Though all legos have their place in time.  Will it be a big money maker?  Probably not, I'm OK with that.

[jaisonline]

13 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

I fully agree with your other points, but this one.

The stash every reseller has, except 77% of respondents to the most popular discussion topic, on the most popular lego investing site who have between 0-2 ?

There are only 2 people in the world who have any clue how hoarded (or not) this thing is. I feel like they've dropped hints over the years that we'd all be surprised how few of these are in reseller hands. This thing is NOT easily hoardable due to the size, weight, expense, perception of imortality etc. 

It's like common sense. Everyone assumes everyone else has some, but if you check, they probably don't.

 

good point. poor choice of a 1 key word on my part.  should have typed," the stash some resellers have".

for every reseller that has 2, there are some with 4. for those with 4, some have 10 and so on.  some folks have been buying 2+ 10188  annually since it was introduced. 

regardless, i do think my other points are just as important because at the end of the day, buyer demand is the #1 thing that counts.all those other points all influence demand among other i didn't type.

[mudcatsfan]

6 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

good point. poor choice of a 1 key word on my part.  should have typed," the stash some resellers have".

for every reseller that has 2, there are some with 4. for those with 4, some have 10 and so on.  some folks have been buying 2+ 10188  annually since it was introduced. 

regardless, i do think my other points are just as important because at the end of the day, buyer demand is the #1 thing that counts.

agreed. And all your other points are why either 

a) the set won't be a huge success

b ) they scare enough resellers away to make the set a huge success

It will be fascinating to see which turns out to be true. I think b is the answer, but i haven't mortgaged my house on it  (12 sets deep).

[jaisonline]

5 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

agreed. And all your other points are why either 

a) the set won't be a huge success

b ) they scare enough resellers away to make the set a huge success

It will be fascinating to see which turns out to be true. I think b is the answer, but i haven't mortgaged my house on it  (12 sets deep).

a nice success if the upcoming set isn't too much of a refresh as we learned from this summer's 10188 Sold-out scare. the set quickly jumped to $550 or so

[darkhorseoflego]

If it jumps to a 1.5X price in the near future then stays there for years then that is still quite a lot of money that it has gone up by. Sets in the UK on eBay are now selling from around £330-£379, with most not including postage in that price. Not bad in my opinion. Awaiting my first and last Death Star which j ordered last night, hopefully coming tomorrow with express delivery.

[Yinchuan]

13 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

a nice success if the upcoming set isn't too much of a refresh as we learned from this summer's 10188 Sold-out scare. the set quickly jumped to $550 or so

Can you imagine if "we are making more" had not occurred, how much these would be commanding this holiday season? Unfortunate that Lego reversed course.

[mfortunek]

17 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

a nice success if the upcoming set isn't too much of a refresh as we learned from this summer's 10188 Sold-out scare. the set quickly jumped to $550 or so

It definitely did. And the horde saw that, then the horde got a "second chance" for about six months, the horde stocked up, and now the horde is expecting a repeat of what happened over the summer. 

Take Orthanc for example. It disappeared in mid-August and I personally believe it would be selling for $275-300 at the moment (in the U.S.) if it had stayed dead.  The scramble would have ensued and prices would have done well.  The problem is that it didn't stay dead. It was available at Target and Amazon pretty much every day for the past four months (including this morning!), giving everybody their "second chance" to stock up.  Same thing has happened with Red 5.  Lots and lots of second chancing.  And the prices for Orthanc and Red 5? $225-$250 ish.

Juxtapose that with HH and TH last year - they offered very few "second chance" opportunities. And look what happened.  

If DS had stayed dead in July, it would be crushing it right now.  Let's hope the "second chancing" effect didn't ruin that.

Edited December 11, 2015 by mfortunek

[thoroakenfelder]

36 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

I fully agree with your other points, but this one.

The stash every reseller has, except 77% of respondents to the most popular discussion topic, on the most popular lego investing site who have between 0-2 ?

There are only 2 people in the world who have any clue how hoarded (or not) this thing is. I feel like they've dropped hints over the years that we'd all be surprised how few of these are in reseller hands. This thing is NOT easily hoardable due to the size, weight, expense, perception of imortality etc. 

It's like common sense. Everyone assumes everyone else has some, but if you check, they probably don't.

 

 

What are the chances that initial response to the survey is no longer a valid marker due to time and changes in strategy or jumping on because of the previous sold out status? How long has the poll been active?

[Follows Closely]

47 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

...

There are only 2 people in the world who have any clue how hoarded (or not) this thing is. I feel like they've dropped hints over the years that we'd all be surprised how few of these are in reseller hands. ..

 

 

You overstate the reliability of this sites brickfolio. I don't know a single big time investor that keeps a brickfolio up to date. The small guys sure, but if you have 50K, 100K, 200K+ in Lego you don't have time or the need to update a brickfolio. I would be confident stating that the brickfolio more closely represents the small investor, which will not be hording 10188 like the big boys.

Edited December 11, 2015 by Follows Closely