10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Frank Brickowski]

6 minutes ago, Quacs said:

No issue with this - it's a perfectly reasonable question, and if we're being fair there's precedent for tastes changing over time.  Boxing, horse racing and baseball, the three most popular sports in the US 100 years ago, are nowhere near as popular today as they were back then.

(Off-topic) Another statement I probably won't win any friends with, but Baseball and Soccer for me are two of the all-time most boring sports to watch. I just don't understand why they are so popular - which is one reason I stopped trying to understand other hypes as well, like Star Wars or whatever. Having a directly opposite opinion than over 1 billion soccer fans in the world and an additonal "I dont know how many millions" SW fans... but I dont complain, not being part of the majority is fun on its own.

[Fcbarcelona101]

20 minutes ago, Quacs said:

I would be shocked if Lego has even made 250,000 DS in total since the set was released.  An 8 year run means they would have produced 31,250 sets per year.  That doesn't jive with estimates of how many of each set they produced, especially for a large set.  And Lego has only ramped up production in the years since it's release, so production estimates based on data provided in the last couple of years are bound to be higher than previous year production runs.

I did a blog article 1-2 years ago (can't seem to find it on the site now) where I estimated that Lego produced 20,000 copies of an average sized Lego set (I think that's the number).  The estimate utilized the number of bricks they produced (published in their annual report), and the number of sets they released in that same year as data points.  Given these published benchmarks, There's very little chance TLG has even made 250,000 DS' in the entire run of DS.

No issue with this - it's a perfectly reasonable question, and if we're being fair there's precedent for tastes changing over time.  Boxing, horse racing and baseball, the three most popular sports in the US 100 years ago, are nowhere near as popular today as they were back then.

Here you go:

 

http://community.brickpicker.com/blog/community-lego-blogs/ever-wonder-how-many-lego-sets-tlc-makes-in-a-year/

[Val-E]

And Will Ferrell. There, we have outraged America.

[Quacs]

6 minutes ago, Fcbarcelona101 said:

Here you go:

 

http://community.brickpicker.com/blog/community-lego-blogs/ever-wonder-how-many-lego-sets-tlc-makes-in-a-year/

Looks like the 20,000 estimate was for a large set (41999 LE Crawler), not for the average set.  That said, My logic still holds...

[Guest]

13 hours ago, trekgate502 said:

I could be wrong and I know I am a lopsided Star Wars nerd though not approaching the level of knowledge of the expert jaisonline or anywhere close (said genuinely)

but the level of disbelief I am seeing in the death star, the isd, the at at, and so many other things on this site is breath taking

yeah at at terrible perform it goes out of stock, could buy at toys r us for 85 bucks with discounts and it is almost 200 on amazon

the death star a few months ago went out of stock on amazon and went to 600 bucks almost instantly and hovered for a while, yet someday when it really is gone it may approach 1.5 x MSRP ?

either there are a lot of people putting down lego investing because they want sellers to go away or I live on another planet called Halfus Fullus while others live on Completus Emptius

Today is the day to celebrate the Death Star imo it deserves respect and admiration

(note this is just my personal feelings on the topic by all means debate, discuss and throw out my beliefs, that is what this site is for, I just want to note that I am genuinely taken aback by the posts)

Carry on with the bashing

Not all people have the same opinions. Not sure where the confusion or being so taken aback by this fact comes from. If we don't agree with you, what do you care? Less competition for you after all!

[legone3]

48 minutes ago, Quacs said:

Looks like the 20,000 estimate was for a large set (41999 LE Crawler), not for the average set.  That said, My logic still holds...

41999 was extremely limited. Very short availability time, only from Lego (?).

Sets like the "normal" Crawler 9398 was available for 2 years, everywhere. I suspect 9398's volume is 10 times higher.

And Death Star's volume is probably 20 times that of 9398.

Edited December 10, 2015 by legone3

[mudcatsfan]

1 hour ago, legone3 said:

How I came up with the number 250,000 DS hoarded:

- Multiply the number of poll respondents for each quantity range with the average quantity of the range. For example: "10-15 sets: 20 people", so we have 20x(10+15)/2=260 sets. Add those numbers up for all quantity ranges, we have 1740 sets (among 580 respondents).

- We have 50,000 members, so if the poll is representative of all members, we have about 150,000 sets owned by all members.

- Assuming that BP is extremely successful and 60% of Lego investors are members, so all iin all investors over the world are hoarding 150,000x100/60 = 250,000 sets.

A quarter million Death Stars.

 

1 hour ago, KShine said:

 

I assume that the 250,000 number was based on the percentage of each quantity x 50,000 BP's.

As I have mentioned, stats/polls/graphs can be tremendously deceiving and misleading.

I would say the number is actually even higher than the 250K.

 

 

1 hour ago, Quacs said:

I would be shocked if Lego has even made 250,000 DS in total since the set was released.  An 8 year run means they would have produced 31,250 sets per year.  That doesn't jive with estimates of how many of each set they produced, especially for a large set.  And Lego has only ramped up production in the years since it's release, so production estimates based on data provided in the last couple of years are bound to be higher than previous year production runs.

I did a blog article 1-2 years ago (can't seem to find it on the site now) where I estimated that Lego produced 20,000 copies of an average sized Lego set (I think that's the number).  The estimate utilized the number of bricks they produced (published in their annual report), and the number of sets they released in that same year as data points.  Given these published benchmarks, There's very little chance TLG has even made 250,000 DS' in the entire run of DS.

No issue with this - it's a perfectly reasonable question, and if we're being fair there's precedent for tastes changing over time.  Boxing, horse racing and baseball, the three most popular sports in the US 100 years ago, are nowhere near as popular today as they were back then.

Ok, so the difference in my estimate and the 250k is whether the poll is representative of the overall brickpicker population.

I think folks who contribute to the poll are much more likely to have actually bought a death star than those that have not. Therefore i think the %'s are way overstated.

It's the vocal minority responding. I agree there are also likely folks that have never stepped foot in here, or have a warehouse and don't advertise it. But i suspect that is rare.

I chose to minimize the effect by only multiplying by the number of brickfolios (16k) whereas you went with brickpickers 50k. 

I think even using the number of brickfolios is too much of a factor due to my previous notes about those who respond and those that don't.

Interesting ideas though, i really appreciate people trying to use actual numbers!!

[Ciglione]

Maybe... when DS is officially retired and no where to be found. Ed, Jeff or Stephen can enlighten us by revealing some inside information about this set. 

[jaisonline]

Maybe... when DS is officially retired and no where to be found. Ed, Jeff or Stephen can enlighten us by revealing some inside information about this set. 

What insider info do you want to know?

[Val-E]

The ratio of hoarded DS to Constitution Trains, of course!

[stephen_rockefeller]

13 hours ago, trekgate502 said:

I could be wrong and I know I am a lopsided Star Wars nerd though not approaching the level of knowledge of the expert jaisonline or anywhere close (said genuinely)

but the level of disbelief I am seeing in the death star, the isd, the at at, and so many other things on this site is breath taking

yeah at at terrible perform it goes out of stock, could buy at toys r us for 85 bucks with discounts and it is almost 200 on amazon

the death star a few months ago went out of stock on amazon and went to 600 bucks almost instantly and hovered for a while, yet someday when it really is gone it may approach 1.5 x MSRP ?

either there are a lot of people putting down lego investing because they want sellers to go away or I live on another planet called Halfus Fullus while others live on Completus Emptius

Today is the day to celebrate the Death Star imo it deserves respect and admiration

(note this is just my personal feelings on the topic by all means debate, discuss and throw out my beliefs, that is what this site is for, I just want to note that I am genuinely taken aback by the posts)

Carry on with the bashing

Were you a theatre major in College? Its not that serious bro lol and  hardly "breathe taking"

[Ciglione]

6 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

What insider info do you want to know?

The average quantity of DS in the brickfolio's or something. Just to give us an idea.

[mudcatsfan]

9 minutes ago, Ciglione said:

Maybe... when DS is officially retired and no where to be found. Ed, Jeff or Stephen can enlighten us by revealing some inside information about this set. 

That's a GREAT idea. Seconded !

[Val-E]

No need to. Just look at the "What I bought today" thread over the past day, multiply by the number of days since DS launch and then by the population of Florida, square route by Tuesday and add 10 188 for margin of error. Simple. And don´t use your VIP points during double VIP.

[TheGallows]

I believe ED said he bought another one just yesterday. #jussayin

[stephen_rockefeller]

Means nothing.........Ed buys EVERYTHING!!!! Just saying

[trekgate502]

1 hour ago, MarxMarvelous said:

Not all people have the same opinions. Not sure where the confusion or being so taken aback by this fact comes from. If we don't agree with you, what do you care? Less competition for you after all!

 

50 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Were you a theatre major in College? Its not that serious bro lol and  hardly "breathe taking"

I was not a theater major in college but I did play one on tv ... Well each person can have their own opinion so to me breath taking it is .... Of course third time shame on me ....  I shall stop with my disbelief in people opinions on the set and other sets .... like McDonald's and Carl Sagan there are billions and billions and billions of the death star produced .... Everyone have so many there is a world wide glut coming ...   with new plastic conversion to oil equipment the death star will produce unprecedented levels of oil for years to come ....  I guess I should have realized for investments that after there was a hate crowd for R2 came a hate crowd for the Town Hall (or the other way around if I have timing reversed)... now a hate crowd for the death star .... I shall not stand in the way everyone please continue .... excuse me I will be buying some more death star's to add to the billions while the melting party commences

 

 

Edited December 10, 2015 by trekgate502

[Guest]

There is absolutely NOTHING scientific or even close about this poll. Basing investment strategies for a $400 set based on this poll is asinine.

6 minutes ago, trekgate502 said:

 

I was not a theater major in college but I did play one on tv ... Well each person can have their own opinion so to me breath taking it is .... Of course third time shame on me ....  I shall stop with my disbelief in people opinions on the set and other sets .... like McDonald's and Carl Sagan there are billions and billions and billions of the death star produced .... Everyone have so many there is a world wide glut coming ...   with new plastic conversion to oil equipment the death star will produce unprecedented levels of oil for years to come ....  I guess I should have realized for investments that after there was a hate crowd for R2 came a hate crowd for the Town Hall ... now a hate crowd for the death star .... I shall not stand in the way everyone please continue .... excuse me I will be buying some more death star's to add to the billions while the melting party commences

 

 

Not every set is TH or R2.... In fact, thousands of thousands of sets are not TH and R2

[trekgate502]

6 hours ago, Ed Mack said:

I would think the new Death Star would be based on the up and coming Rogue One movie which stars Felicity Jones, Mads Mikkelsen and Forest Whitaker. We are not sure if a new Death Star is in this movie at all. Regardless, the new version should be substantially different than this one.

Ed you are using logic to combat hysteria.  You should know better !

[trekgate502]

13 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

There is absolutely NOTHING scientific or even close about this poll. Basing investment strategies for a $400 set based on this poll is asinine.

Not every set is TH or R2.... In fact, thousands of thousands of sets are not TH and R2

my investment in 10188 has absolutely nothing to do with the poll.  I could care less what the poll says.

none of my investments are driven off of polls.

so you mean unlike TH and R2 that there are sets on here that are highly praised as must buy sets instead of being trashed by many ?

I'll stick with my decisions on TH, R2 and DS and avoid polls

[Hansomebricks]

Everyone here does know the New Death Star is in the movie poster and there is quite a bit of information out about it already. Also from my understanding it's called "Starkiller Base" and not Death Star.

[exciter1]

The only pole you should gauge your strategies on.

[zskid00]

5 minutes ago, trekgate502 said:

I'll stick with my decisions on TH, R2 and DS and avoid polls

What about Red 5?  And don't worry I have my fair share of that one but LEGO did us no favors by continuing production so far into this year.  

I'm not here to bash the Death Star (heck I have 6 of them myself) but people have their reasons for not hopping on the DS train which is now finally leaving the station.  Not everyone has $400 to invest in a set for the long-term and many probably believe there are better places to put your money.  For example, would you rather have 4 AT-ATs or 1 DS at this point?  Trek, I know the answer for you is probably both, but some people have to go one route or the other and with the DS being so long in the tooth with a possible remake on the horizon I can see why they are skeptical.  It's nothing to take personally though.

[c666187]

5 hours ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Why wouldn't they look awful? The year was 1978.

Episode IV was released May 25, 1977.   Sorry, my inner-nerd is showing again!   

[trekgate502]

50 minutes ago, zskid00 said:

What about Red 5?  And don't worry I have my fair share of that one but LEGO did us no favors by continuing production so far into this year.  

I'm not here to bash the Death Star (heck I have 6 of them myself) but people have their reasons for not hopping on the DS train which is now finally leaving the station.  Not everyone has $400 to invest in a set for the long-term and many probably believe there are better places to put your money.  For example, would you rather have 4 AT-ATs or 1 DS at this point?  Trek, I know the answer for you is probably both, but some people have to go one route or the other and with the DS being so long in the tooth with a possible remake on the horizon I can see why they are skeptical.  It's nothing to take personally though.

hey zskid well said.  seriously.  I think all of your points are valid.

in your 4 AT AT or 1 DS yes I would want both if I could.

that being said if I could only choose one it would probably be for short term flip 4 AT AT and for long term hold 1 DS depending on my strategy

I think your point is very valid too on people's investment.  I never think people should put more into Lego than what they would do as an investment that they would be comfortable with and able to manage like the stock market.

I do think that one's excitement and opinion over a set value long term does not have to be tied to how many they buy.

For instance I have been watching the UCS MF with great excitement and admiration but I have not owned any.  I could have bought several in the $2,500 a piece range at the time but I was not able to afford at that time so I did not.  I have regret.

People's decision to choose to invest in a set personally based on financial conditions and having admiration for sets that they do not choose to invest can be compatible ideas though it never seems to be discussed that way.

Everyone should make their own decision.  It just was a surprise to me that so many people are negative to one of the best Star Wars sets of all times in my opinion.  If a new death star comes out that is the same size, bigger, and better, near the same price point, is even more detailed, and includes young Luke, Leia, and such then yes this set will take a proverbial bath on long term appreciation but I think I can get out without too much loss.  There is risk.  If the new set comes out and it is the Star Killer base and has absolutely nothing to do with this Death Star than this will be gold.  I am choosing to think the later but I could be wrong. And as with Red Five I was wrong.  Though my boys are standing by for the eventual call and I could get out about even on them right now anyways.

Appreciate your well written post.