10188 - UCS: Death Star

[brickolodon]

look, this graph speaks for itself...close to 38% got none. another 38% just 1 or 2

 

 

Edited December 10, 2015 by brickolodon

[Loghamel]

I don't have any, but plan to get at least two.  I figure 2 out of 3 kids will love Star Wars, so I'd like to be able to give each of my kids one a few years down the road without skimping on their college savings to get them.

[Alpinemaps]

I will own up to not having any sealed.  I have one that was missing about 100 pieces (I've pretty much taken care of that) and all the minis.  I'm good sitting this one out, and letting the rest of you deal with it.

I have no doubt you all will be successful, and that you will see good returns on this set.  I have no doubt, now that's it's reaching this status, that things are looking up.  It just doesn't fit in with my own personal investment strategy.

[legone3]

1 hour ago, brickolodon said:

look, this graph speaks for itself...close to 38% got none. another 38% just 1 or 2

 

 

If this is representative of all BP members, we are in big trouble.

Roughly 250,000 Death Stars have been bought for investment?
 

Edited December 10, 2015 by legone3

[mudcatsfan]

36 minutes ago, legone3 said:

If this is representative of all BP members, we are in big trouble.

Roughly 250,000 Death Stars have been bought for investment?
 

I'm trying to figure how you came to this number. I'm seeing roughly 1900 based on the folks who replied. 

avg	respondants	sum
0	225	0
1.5	224	336
3.5	52	182
7	37	259
12.5	14	175
18	6	108
23	2	46
39	20	780
	580	1886

 

And yes these numbers are old so they might be higher, OR they might be lower considering the DS spiked up to 600 in July and many may have sold the ones they bought for 270-350 over the years.

Further, i think the folks with Death Stars were likely to respond. so if you're trying to extrapolate the 580 who did respond (and only about 360 actually had one) out to the total number of brickpickers i think that would very much OVERstate how many are out there.

Even if you did, and i see 12000 brickfolios exist, so that's 20 times the number of respondents. So even if you multiplied 1886 by 20 that's 39,000 death stars. And again to me, it seems like the respondents were more likely to HAVE death stars, than the folks who didn't bother to click.

Is there a better number than 12000 brickfolios to base the numbers on? How did you get 250k?

Edited December 10, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[Guest brickcrazyhouse]

[Ed Mack]

I think there probably is.  Just2Good obviously has some major connections within LEGO and has too much consistent insider information to be ignored.  The question is whether or not the new Death Star will have an huge effect on the 10188's appreciation.  Personally, I don't think it will because of the new movie characters and scenes.  If it is a set similar to the 10143 but finished, the 10188 could explode.  Even another play set could be much, much different.  The 10188 is a classic.  It will be missed.

Exactly. 

 

The new DS will have Kylo Ren, Rey, Poe and more. Will be cool as ****, but no old school characters probably.

No Luke, no Darth, no Imperial Guards. 

 

Im all in 10188

I would think the new Death Star would be based on the up and coming Rogue One movie which stars Felicity Jones, Mads Mikkelsen and Forest Whitaker. We are not sure if a new Death Star is in this movie at all. Regardless, the new version should be substantially different than this one.

[Val-E]

More than ever with this set, timing will be important. A number of sellers will be happy to move theirs on ASAP whilst others will want to sit it out mid or long term. There will also be the resellers that missed out who are scrambling to make a decent number. It´s interesting that a number of sales were concentrated on EU ebay the days before the retiring soon and sold out tags were put on it so some people had an idea it was coming.

[Frank Brickowski]

9 hours ago, legone3 said:

But kids nowadays don't watch the original trilogy. 

 

Sorry but true especially for folks who grew up with CGI imagery: Those OT movies are just somewhat lame in terms of FX as well as authentic acting from today's standards. Last time I had a brief look at one OT movie I was shocked about how outdated everything looked. Can't imagine that young folks appreciate that very much.

Edited December 10, 2015 by rfish

[Locutus001]

28 minutes ago, rfish said:

Sorry but true especially for folks who grew up with CGI imagery: Those OT movies are just somewhat lame in terms of FX as well as authentic acting from today's standards. Last time I had a brief look at one OT movie I was shocked about how outdated everything looked. Can't imagine that young folks appreciate that very much.

Eh... are you talking about kids or young adults? ^.^

Kids care more about the general idea than about the special effects. I'm not saying your totally wrong but I disagree to a certain degree.

[Frank Brickowski]

5 minutes ago, Locutus001 said:

Eh... are you talking about kids or young adults? ^.^

Kids care more about the general idea than about the special effects. I'm not saying your totally wrong but I disagree to a certain degree.

OK, then let's say kids from today might watch the OT movies but however they look awful for modern standards.

[stephen_rockefeller]

13 minutes ago, rfish said:

OK, then let's say kids from today might watch the OT movies but however they look awful for modern standards.

Why wouldn't they look awful? The year was 1978.

[Locutus001]

17 minutes ago, rfish said:

OK, then let's say kids from today might watch the OT movies but however they look awful for modern standards.

Let's say: You think they look awful for modern standards.

I'd rather say they look "funny". Still I'd prefer OT to Ep I-III. The most magic does not happen thanks to newer technique but because of a good story. They could have/should have done a more solid story for OT but that's true for 99% of all movies.

In the end the magic happens inside of your head (as with books), so no need for fancy effects, although they are nice to look at. But I've seen movies where these effects have been nothing more than that. Not only is that boring (after a while) but also it actually is "stress".

Anyhow, I'm sure Star Wars will get an update with Ep VII ;-) Probably not but only maybe! it'll be better than OT. Some of the best storytelling and also movie scences "sadly" happens in video games as filler sequences.

Edited December 10, 2015 by Locutus001

[HandyHand]

Raising my hand as one of the Brickpickers here who does not have any 10188 DS. 

And while most people in this topic have been very positive and enthusiastic about this set, there are a few reasons why I personally didn't feel the urge/need to get this set myself. I could give a lengthy explanation, but I think the bottom line is that it doesn't fit with my personal investment strategy. And I am really forcing myself to stick with the investment strategy I agreed upon with myself when I started buying Lego sets only a few months ago. 

I do wish everyone here who owns 1 or more DS for investment a good ROI and good luck choosing the right time to sell it.  

[Frank Brickowski]

1 hour ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Why wouldn't they look awful? The year was 1978.

What I was trying to say: When they look awful, it is no fun watching them. This goes at least for me and supposedly also for kids growing older wondering why they should spend their money on Lego sets based on movies that are no fun to watch. They might rather turn to the new trilogy and figures. Can't imagine that the OT Death Star could be more popular with the next generation than the new Death Star - that is why I do not share the 100% enthusiasm about OT DS's growth potential.

[jaisonline]

10188 is one of Lego's iconic sets.  I recommend owning at least 1 regardless whether you build it or not.  Remember the initial jump in secondary market price when we thought it was gone 6 months ago?  Expect the same price "spike".

i would just be awfully careful watching for any indictation of reseller market saturation, decreased demand and refresh news.  Then it's probably time to unload.  

 

Note : I do think many, many of these purchased since 2013 haven't been opened.

[stephen_rockefeller]

The OG OT was pretty bad but I just watched the remastered ones are they aren't that bad. I know they caught alot of flack for remastering but they had to. They were pretty bad, but kids will never see those ones I dont think.

[jaisonline]

5 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

The OG OT was pretty bad but I just watched the remastered ones are they aren't that bad. I know they caught alot of flack for remastering but they had to. They were pretty bad, but kids will never see those ones I dont think.

Exactly.  The blu-Ray and digital editions look like they were made in the early 2000s.  They have aged pretty well.

[Quacs]

24 minutes ago, rfish said:

What I was trying to say: When they look awful, it is no fun watching them. This goes at least for me and supposedly also for kids growing older wondering why they should spend their money on Lego sets based on movies that are no fun to watch. They might rather turn to the new trilogy and figures. Can't imagine that the OT Death Star could be more popular with the next generation than the new Death Star - that is why I do not share the 100% enthusiasm about OT DS's growth potential.

Much of kids' reactions to products and media directly reflect what they see from their parents.  If Mom and Dad like watching a certain football team, they will naturally begin to follow that same sports team even if they don't understand the game.  Same holds true for movies and Star Wars, and there are a WHOLE LOT of parents who like Star Wars.

I would agree more with your premise if Star Wars were a new movie struggling for acceptance in modern culture, but it's not.  It's already one of the most valuable franchises on earth with nearly forty years of time spent cultivating fans, with or without cheesy graphics.

[legone3]

How I came up with the number 250,000 DS hoarded:

- Multiply the number of poll respondents for each quantity range with the average quantity of the range. For example: "10-15 sets: 20 people", so we have 20x(10+15)/2=260 sets. Add those numbers up for all quantity ranges, we have 1740 sets (among 580 respondents).

- We have 50,000 members, so if the poll is representative of all members, we have about 150,000 sets owned by all members.

- Assuming that BP is extremely successful and 60% of Lego investors are members, so all iin all investors over the world are hoarding 150,000x100/60 = 250,000 sets.

A quarter million Death Stars.

[Kenxxx]

I'm usually not much for the "conspiracy theories"... you know... Big Lego is cleverly manipulating the market... etc. But I do wonder: there's been lots of speculation here that Lego is not reaching the sales goals for the year, thus, they're extending promos, and extra discounts to boost sales here at year end.  Could it be that they added the "Retiring Soon" tag to the DS because they know they can count on us for another couple million $ in sales here in the next few weeks?

[KShine]

7 hours ago, legone3 said:

If this is representative of all BP members, we are in big trouble.

Roughly 250,000 Death Stars have been bought for investment?
 

 

7 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

I'm trying to figure how you came to this number. I'm seeing roughly 1900 based on the folks who replied. 

Is there a better number than 12000 brickfolios to base the numbers on? How did you get 250k?

I assume that the 250,000 number was based on the percentage of each quantity x 50,000 BP's.

As I have mentioned, stats/polls/graphs can be tremendously deceiving and misleading.

I would say the number is actually even higher than the 250K.

 

[Frank Brickowski]

11 minutes ago, Quacs said:

Much of kids' reactions to products and media directly reflect what they see from their parents.  If Mom and Dad like watching a certain football team, they will naturally begin to follow that same sports team even if they don't understand the game.  Same holds true for movies and Star Wars, and there are a WHOLE LOT of parents who like Star Wars.

I would agree more with your premise if Star Wars were a new movie struggling for acceptance in modern culture, but it's not.  It's already one of the most valuable franchises on earth with nearly forty years of time spent cultivating fans, with or without cheesy graphics.

It happens to me every now and then that I wonder what all the SW hype is really about. I know I'm not the majority, whatever, I don't care. As long as people throw their hard-earned money in the direction of the overpriced EOL sets I offer them, it doesnt matter if or not I understand them.

[Quacs]

13 minutes ago, KShine said:

I assume that the 250,000 number was based on the percentage of each quantity x 50,000 BP's.

As I have mentioned, stats/polls/graphs can be tremendously deceiving and misleading.

I would say the number is actually even higher than the 250K.

I would be shocked if Lego has even made 250,000 DS in total since the set was released.  An 8 year run means they would have produced 31,250 sets per year.  That doesn't jive with estimates of how many of each set they produced, especially for a large set.  And Lego has only ramped up production in the years since it's release, so production estimates based on data provided in the last couple of years are bound to be higher than previous year production runs.

I did a blog article 1-2 years ago (can't seem to find it on the site now) where I estimated that Lego produced 20,000 copies of an average sized Lego set (I think that's the number).  The estimate utilized the number of bricks they produced (published in their annual report), and the number of sets they released in that same year as data points.  Given these published benchmarks, There's very little chance TLG has even made 250,000 DS' in the entire run of DS.

17 minutes ago, rfish said:

It happens to me every now and then that I wonder what all the SW hype is really about. I know I'm not the majority, whatever, I don't care. As long as people throw their hard-earned money in the direction of the overpriced EOL sets I offer them, it doesnt matter if or not I understand them.

No issue with this - it's a perfectly reasonable question, and if we're being fair there's precedent for tastes changing over time.  Boxing, horse racing and baseball, the three most popular sports in the US 100 years ago, are nowhere near as popular today as they were back then.

[thoroakenfelder]

36 minutes ago, Kenxxx said:

I'm usually not much for the "conspiracy theories"... you know... Big Lego is cleverly manipulating the market... etc. But I do wonder: there's been lots of speculation here that Lego is not reaching the sales goals for the year, thus, they're extending promos, and extra discounts to boost sales here at year end.  Could it be that they added the "Retiring Soon" tag to the DS because they know they can count on us for another couple million $ in sales here in the next few weeks?

If true, they wouldn't be canceling so many orders based on previous purchase.