10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Bold-Arrow]

I surrender.  I had three and now I have two.  The one I got during the July "It's Sold Out" dance from target had damage from shipping.  I held on to it for ninety days to see what would happen.  This thing is still here and kicking.  I decided to return it as it was damaged and see how the future goes.  If target now has a restock and the Lego store employee says they expect more (which he said yesterday) I am pulling back on my bet while I can cash out for even money.  I still have two in great shape.

P.S. the Target store said they were going to salvage it for damage so look for it on-line or at your local Salvation Army because that is where it is going. 

P.S.S My gut tells me there are more opportunities to buy this in the future (But I don't understand Lego's sales strategy on this thing at all.) 

P.S.S.S.  If the right opportunity to buy a third one shows up in the future and the box is mint I will buy more but knowing I was holding a damaged box just drove me nuts.  If the box was perfect this would not have been returned. 

too much pissing .

[zobel0022]

Available at Target, Amazon, and Toys R Us right now

[Wildemar]

Hmm...

(LEGO Shop at Home EU without "We are making more.")

[Ciglione]

Who in their right mind would still buy this set? I believe everyone who wanted this set for their own collection or multiples as investment has their fair share. This will never have the same gains as SSD has. 

 

[Ed Mack]

Who in their right mind would still buy this set? I believe everyone who wanted this set for their own collection or multiples as investment has their fair share. This will never have the same gains as SSD has. 

 

Long term, you might be 100% wrong.

[waddamon]

Who in their right mind would still buy this set? I believe everyone who wanted this set for their own collection or multiples as investment has their fair share. This will never have the same gains as SSD has. 

 

Because you talked to "everyone". Interesting statement. Sell and move on, no more need to discuss. This set confounds everyone.

[Ciglione]

Long term, you might be 100% wrong.

Define Long term.

[botchy123]

Who in their right mind would still buy this set? I believe everyone who wanted this set for their own collection or multiples as investment has their fair share. This will never have the same gains as SSD has. 

 

You have to be crazy to succeed in this game

[dcdfan]

Define Long term.

Eternity...

[labfreak7]

I returned one of my three to target. I saw them printing a red sticker. I'm sure it will make someone's day to see a Death Star at a reduced price.

[Crustybeaver]

Define Long term.

Longer than short term

[dcdfan]

Available @ Amazon again/still?...

[Val-E]

Hmm...

(LEGO Shop at Home EU without "We are making more.")

A small step nearer to being done!

[Val-E]

Hmm...

(LEGO Shop at Home EU without "We are making more.")

Coud they please put check back In February? That would be enough for me to QF mine....

Edited October 16, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Ed Mack]

Define Long term.

More than 6 months on this site.  LOL.  Here's the thing, with LEGO now in the business of possibly reissuing sets and releasing new versions of sets, there is a chance, however small, that the SSD gets remade at some point.  It will most likely be in some new STAR WARS movie at some point.   The 10188 is a one and done set.  The only question is when it will be done.  The next STAR WARS movie will have a Death Star, but with all new characters and scenes.  Future movies...the same.  There won't be a repeat of the trash compactor scene or whatever from A New Hope, so no need to produce the same set.  There will be other versions of the Death Star that will be released I'm sure, which will only attract new buyers to the old one.  Is it a long shot...yes.  My money would be on the SSD, but I am still bullish on the 10188 if you have the patience and pockets to acquire them.

[Guest]

My patience and pockets have limits. And DS breaks them both

[Ed Mack]

My patience and pockets have limits. And DS breaks them both

Yes...I understand.  There are many other opportunities out there.  

[Follows Closely]

My patience and pockets have limits. And DS breaks them both

^ This is the case for a lot of investors. 

[Ciglione]

More than 6 months on this site.  LOL.  Here's the thing, with LEGO now in the business of possibly reissuing sets and releasing new versions of sets, there is a chance, however small, that the SSD gets remade at some point.  It will most likely be in some new STAR WARS movie at some point.   The 10188 is a one and done set.  The only question is when it will be done.  The next STAR WARS movie will have a Death Star, but with all new characters and scenes.  Future movies...the same.  There won't be a repeat of the trash compactor scene or whatever from A New Hope, so no need to produce the same set.  There will be other versions of the Death Star that will be released I'm sure, which will only attract new buyers to the old one.  Is it a long shot...yes.  My money would be on the SSD, but I am still bullish on the 10188 if you have the patience and pockets to acquire them.

Yes... this could go nicely up in value in about three years. But considering many people bought them maybe 4 years ago it really puts patience to the test. While earlier this week many peeps here were saying that if you were still holding the UCS MF you were practicing bad investing. And please do not try to convince me that DS will show the same growth rate as UCS MF. So I am wondering what is the way to go now. Long-term investing or not? It is all contradictive.

Hopefully you understand the point I am trying to make. 

[Ed Mack]

Yes... this could go nicely up in value in about three years. But considering many people bought them maybe 4 years ago it really puts patience to the test. While earlier this week many peeps here were saying that if you were still holding the UCS MF you were practicing bad investing. And please do not try to convince me that DS will show the same growth rate as UCS MF. So I am wondering what is the way to go now. Long-term investing or not? It is all contradictive.

Hopefully you understand the point I am trying to make. 

 I'm not trying to convince you of anything.  I gave you a possible scenario in which the 10188 could outperform the SSD.  Is it likely?  No, but it is growing more possible with each new UCS reissue.  As for performing like the 10179, holding onto the set will make you a hero or a zero.  I know many people who sold out at $1000-1200 and they were thrilled, so who is to argue with doubling or tripling your investment?  Remember one thing though, the 10179 sat around on Amazon for a long time after it retired on S@H and people weren't "POOFING" them.  They were even 20% off.  The 10188 might surprise you.

This new "retro" STAR WARS movie situation has been both a blessing and a curse for the UCS theme.

Edited October 16, 2015 by Ed Mack

[Ciglione]

 I'm not trying to convince you of anything.  I gave you a possible scenario in which the 10188 could outperform the SSD.  Is it likely?  No, but it is growing more possible with each new UCS reissue.  As for performing like the 10179, holding onto the set will make you a hero or a zero.  I know many people who sold out at $1000-1200 and they were thrilled, so who is to argue with doubling or tripling your investment?  Remember one thing though, the 10179 sat around on Amazon for a long time after it retired on LEGO Shop at Home and people weren't "POOFING" them.  They were even 20% off.  The 10188 might surprise you.

I understand what you are saying. But UCS MF was not available as long as DS. Production was limited. I hope you are right and DS will surprise everyone. I have three and I am keeping it at three. Cause I am sure it will take some time before this set becomes anything near to scarce. I agree that when it becomes scarce it will do very well. But how long do we have to wait for that to happen? Or will it skyrocket right away due to investors buying them from other resellers?

I know I am (maybe too) sceptical. But this set takes a big bite out of your budget. That is why being precautious is justified.

 

[Val-E]

I think that, in the past, a number of investors will have used shortages like the current one to offload them as they lost faith. This means it may not be as hoarded as one might imagine. There is a guy on ebay Germany selling them at more than 20% off, as an example.

The factors that will determine it´s short term growth are how long it stays unavailable and what shape or form the mooted new one has and what launch date. If we see another 7965 situation then I imagine a lot of people ditching theirs ASAP. If it is very different then a longer hold with better gains can be envisaged.

[TigerG]

Regarding the more than 20% off example on Ebay Germany: Not quite sure if one seller with a total feedback of 12, has been on ebay for a month, only sold small sets untils he decided to offload a whole lot of Death Stars this week (using the generic Lego picture to go with the auction) is a valid example of the current DS market value in Europe ....

Edited October 16, 2015 by TigerG

[Ciglione]

Regarding the more than 20% off example on Ebay Germany: Not quite sure if one seller with a total feedback of 12, has been on ebay for a month, only sold small sets untils he decided to offload a whole lot of Death Stars this week (using the generic Lego picture to go with the auction) is a valid example of the current DS market value in Europe ....

Hence, I do not even see this 20% off offer on ebay Germany. 

[TigerG]

It's in completed auctions: 

Same seller sold 1 tonight with 350 Euros starting price and offer accepted, another one on the 13th for 379 starting price and offer accepted, a third one in an auction that ended at 380 Euros on the 12th and two more for 379 on the 11th. 

For everybody that finds his offers attractive ...I think I got an offer for you, you can't refuse