10188 - UCS: Death Star

[chipbee]

I'd give at least even odds that the Shanghai Disneyland sells counterfeit lego sets.  I wouldn't be all that surprised if they sold the fakes right there in the Lego brand store.  Everyone, everywhere loves Star Wars.  But especially with their economy headed toward what's shaping up to be a hard landing, I wonder how many Chinese will love (enough to pay a premium) REAL Star Wars...

everyone wants the real stuff if they can affort it, and right now many chinese can afford authentic stuff. How else do you explain surge in sales of authentic luxury goods like LV and Chanel to the chinese?

The chinese are willing to spend good money for their kids, and they sure are not going to risk toy safety. Many chinese families are spending a lot more on their kids than the average american or european family.

[chipbee]

Are you sure about this?  I've considered the theory before (with this, and other sets) that Lego would be concerned with reducing part numbers, improving efficiency, etc... but in fact - with each new set - they are constantly introducing new part numbers. Just look at any new set (even medium-small sets) and you'll find 3 or 4 (or more) new unique parts... many of which could have been substituted with more common parts, but weren't.  In fact, the Death Star, for having almost 4000 parts actually has very few rare parts (outside of the minifigs)... probably because it has been around so long that it's parts have been adopted into many other sets.

By rare parts i don't mean it in the traditional AFOL way, which is rarity of the part used across all lego sets ever produced. Rare part in this context means the inventory level at the moment across all lego warehouses.

there is a physical limit on number of parts the company can inventorised at any one time. Once they run out of a certain part, they will either have to decide to EOL the affected sets, modify the set slightly or to dig up the mold and replenish the stock.

Before pulling out the mold, the company needs to weigh the impact on production of other parts that affects the production of other sets.

In  the product cycle, i think the company always try to make the required parts for the existing sets in big batches, as this is more efficient since setting up molds is not a trivia task. No point making small batches just for 10188.

[Kenxxx]

Soooo... your saying the guys at the factory said, "We're down to our last dozen or so black chair pieces for the Death Star conference room... let's just retire it so we don't have to run those again."  ???  I don't think so.  (And of course, I'm exaggerating a bit)... but even if it were 50 or 100 part numbers that they were "low" on, I don't think this would factor in to whether they continue the life of the product. I've worked for many manufacturing companies, many years as a process engineer in injection molding.  It doesn't take that long to set a mold; especially for a company that does it hundreds of times a day.  Stock on hand (of 2 or 3 cent plastic parts) will not determine the retirement date of a million-dollar-baby like 10188.  Sales, Marketing, and other departments will determine the EOL of the Death Star, it's the production department's job to have the parts there when they want them... or grind the leftovers up when they don't want them anymore.

Edited October 7, 2015 by Kenxxx

[chipbee]

Soooo... your saying the guys at the factory said, "We're down to our last dozen or so black chair pieces for the Death Star conference room... let's just retire it so we don't have to run those again."  ???  I don't think so.  (And of course, I'm exaggerating a bit)... but even if it were 50 or 100 part numbers that they were "low" on, I don't think this would factor in to whether they continue the life of the product. I've worked for many manufacturing companies, many years as a process engineer in injection molding.  It doesn't take that long to set a mold; especially for a company that does it hundreds of times a day.  Stock on hand (of 2 or 3 cent plastic parts) will not determine the retirement date of a million-dollar-baby like 10188.  Sales, Marketing, and other departments will determine the EOL of the Death Star, it's the production department's job to have the parts there when they want them... or grind the leftovers up when they don't want them anymore.

read my post carefully. I did not say it is a cost issue. It is about impact on production of other sets. Once an old set has runs out of certain parts, it will always be a management decision on whether to continue producing the required parts vs diverting production capacity to make other sets that can potentially make more money.

You need to look at this issue from a management angle, and not purely from a process engineer level.

[KShine]

Soooo... your saying the guys at the factory said, "We're down to our last dozen or so black chair pieces for the Death Star conference room... let's just retire it so we don't have to run those again."  ???  I don't think so.  (And of course, I'm exaggerating a bit)... but even if it were 50 or 100 part numbers that they were "low" on, I don't think this would factor in to whether they continue the life of the product. I've worked for many manufacturing companies, many years as a process engineer in injection molding.  It doesn't take that long to set a mold; especially for a company that does it hundreds of times a day.  Stock on hand (of 2 or 3 cent plastic parts) will not determine the retirement date of a million-dollar-baby like 10188.  Sales, Marketing, and other departments will determine the EOL of the Death Star, it's the production department's job to have the parts there when they want them... or grind the leftovers up when they don't want them anymore.

I don't know about that - LEGO apparently doesn't have the time to proof read their boxes (as the EU Advent Calendars have shown).

[gregpj]

I don't know about that - LEGO apparently doesn't have the time to proof read their boxes (as the EU Advent Calendars have shown).

Or with the Wall-E set with the bad batch of hinge pieces..

@Kenxxx and @chipbee... Frankly I think you're both right here... In a perfect world, the people on the floor responsible for making parts are communicating stock levels to the other teams that are looking at sales numbers. When they account for all the sets they are trying to produce, what projected and/or actual sales are, they'll give priority to sets likely based on some corporate secret formula and *BAM* new LEGO sets.

OR As it seems in LEGO's case, their communication is dirt poor between them and thus shortages of LEGO sets happen regularly.

[stephen_rockefeller]

Or maybe there isn't a shortage at all and Lego is just limiting what they put out.

[trekgate502]

Or maybe there isn't a shortage at all and Lego is just limiting what they put out.

I agree just look at the weekend the new Scooby Doo line came out

Scarcity in my city and online but then changed to piles of it everywhere

Lego is learning from Nintendo

[gregpj]

Or maybe there isn't a shortage at all and Lego is just limiting what they put out.

I honestly believe that the demand for LEGO is so high right now that I think they're prioritizing what they believe will sell... Death Star (like the other big SW sets that seem to be going in and out of stock) is a set that if you really want, you'll wait for it to come back. If they don't produce the baseline City and Creator sets today, people aren't going to bother with them and those "basic" sets are still LEGO's bread and butter offerings that get young kids and families hooked on LEGO.

The fact is we have no idea how many Death Star sets have been sold and how many more LEGO think they can sell which will ultimately drive production.

[Darth_Raichu]

Or maybe there isn't a shortage at all and Lego is just limiting what they put out.

This is nothing new. They have done so in the past

[chipbee]

While we are here fretting about 10188 new box design, has anyone seen a photo of the new design box after quite a few days? Or is this all a hoax?

[trekgate502]

This is nothing new. They have done so in the past

Think of it this way in my opinion

Nintendo for a long time which I really like had a product no one wanted

Make a halfway decent product and short it everywhere and people want what they can not have

Now there are Amiibo's everywhere but hey lets short the new ones still

Lego watches takes a product that everyone wants (Lego) and starts intentionally shorting it everywhere and people go insane (be it for manufacturing or for marketing or any reason)

Want to keep record sales of Jurassic World going ? Do not release it regularly and have it stock out immediately ... It can be the Gold Mario of Lego

Voila

LOL

[Ed Mack]

While we are here fretting about 10188 new box design, has anyone seen a photo of the new design box after quite a few days? Or is this all a hoax?

I have been wondering this myself.  There are millions of LEGO fans throughout the world and one guy saw a box?  

[Black_towr]

Think of it this way in my opinion

Nintendo for a long time which I really like had a product no one wanted

Make a halfway decent product and short it everywhere and people want what they can not have

Now there are Amiibo's everywhere but hey lets short the new ones still

Lego watches takes a product that everyone wants (Lego) and starts intentionally shorting it everywhere and people go insane (be it for manufacturing or for marketing or any reason)

Want to keep record sales of Jurassic World going ? Do not release it regularly and have it stock out immediately ... It can be the Gold Mario of Lego

Voila

LOL

This doesn't sound that absurd. 

[Ed Mack]

This doesn't sound that absurd. 

Not at all.  Companies play with inventories and stock levels all the time.  Go ask someone looking to buy a Harley Davidson motorcycle.  What better and easier way to give an impression of a "must have" or "super popular" item?  Just release the item in limited amounts and have a bunch of yahoos on a LEGO investing site talk about it all day long.

[Darth_Raichu]

I have been wondering this myself.  There are millions of LEGO fans throughout the world and one guy saw a box?  

I blame the BP members for not buying 10188 fast enough, preventing the stores from putting the new boxes on the shelves

[Darth_Raichu]

Think of it this way in my opinion

Nintendo for a long time which I really like had a product no one wanted

Make a halfway decent product and short it everywhere and people want what they can not have

Now there are Amiibo's everywhere but hey lets short the new ones still

Lego watches takes a product that everyone wants (Lego) and starts intentionally shorting it everywhere and people go insane (be it for manufacturing or for marketing or any reason)

Want to keep record sales of Jurassic World going ? Do not release it regularly and have it stock out immediately ... It can be the Gold Mario of Lego

Voila

LOL

Sorry Trek, Nintendo did not come up with that strategy, a certain brand of shoes has been doing that for a while now

[gregpj]

Nike has been 'at the top' of the shoe game for a while. Only the top shoes produced in limited amounts create that "it's rare, I want it." Nintendo was forced for years to play catch up... Amiibo's are everywhere, just not the rarest models. Nintendo and Nike make it obvious which items are rare right out of the gate.

What are LEGO's rarest collectible sets? The most expensive ones like 10188? Jurassic World? Scooby Doo? Ideas? LEGO doesn't make it so obvious.

LEGO didn't get to be the biggest toy maker in the world by limiting sales... they did it by selling product. But they don't tell anyone which product it was that got them there. Nintendo and Nike are publicly traded companies.. they pretty much have to tell the world which products got them there by disclosing sales #s. Games get old and boring... shoes wear out... LEGO lasts a life time. Nintendo and Nike are trying to "replace" products in the market place. LEGO is trying to "add" to products in the market place. They have to be different.

I'm not saying they don't play the game, what I'm saying is that I don't believe it's as integral to their business plan as other companies.

[Alpinemaps]

Or maybe there isn't a shortage at all and Lego is just limiting what they put out.

I agree.  I may not operate at Lego's level, but my eBay sales seem to "go faster" when I create a false sense of scarcity.  There's a certain amount of power I have as a seller when my listing says that I've sold 5 units, and I'm down to my "last one!"  Most of my listings are always down to my "last one."

While we are here fretting about 10188 new box design, has anyone seen a photo of the new design box after quite a few days? Or is this all a hoax?

It was the Montreal store that supposedly had them.  I haven't called them.  I haven't seen anyone else mention that they have either.

I have been wondering this myself.  There are millions of LEGO fans throughout the world and one guy saw a box?  

Yep.  lol

[trekgate502]

Nike has been 'at the top' of the shoe game for a while. Only the top shoes produced in limited amounts create that "it's rare, I want it." Nintendo was forced for years to play catch up... Amiibo's are everywhere, just not the rarest models. Nintendo and Nike make it obvious which items are rare right out of the gate.

What are LEGO's rarest collectible sets? The most expensive ones like 10188? Jurassic World? Scooby Doo? Ideas? LEGO doesn't make it so obvious.

LEGO didn't get to be the biggest toy maker in the world by limiting sales... they did it by selling product. But they don't tell anyone which product it was that got them there. Nintendo and Nike are publicly traded companies.. they pretty much have to tell the world which products got them there by disclosing sales #s. Games get old and boring... shoes wear out... LEGO lasts a life time. Nintendo and Nike are trying to "replace" products in the market place. LEGO is trying to "add" to products in the market place. They have to be different.

I'm not saying they don't play the game, what I'm saying is that I don't believe it's as integral to their business plan as other companies.

I do not disagree with what you are saying.

Lego can do whatever Lego wants to do and does not have to care about anything.

That being said if you think about it seriously, for example, I am a humongous Jurassic fan.  Huge. I bought the video game on release day on vacation and took my console to play it and get the free gamestop exclusive 30320 poly (ha)

When I first saw the sets announced I was highly disappointed.  Why not more bigger better.

Think I was not the only one.  People on here were saying why did they not keep the dino line and rename it it was better (if I remember some comments correctly).

If Lego put fifty million copies of Jurassic World on every shelf in America and you saw so many copies and boxes you wanted to throw up It would lose the appeal much faster.

But completely short it, make it rare, make it a great investment (again for whatever reason) and hey wow that is Gold I want one.

It worked for me.

They can not do their entire portfolio of products that way but doing that to Jurassic World would keep the hype up and add to the mystery and desire of buying Lego.

Or else they could just do something like re release a winter toy shop set and we know no one would care lol

[mudcatsfan]

It was the Montreal store that supposedly had them.  I haven't called them.  I haven't seen anyone else mention that they have either.

Yep.  lol

The box change probably just says Les Étoile de la mort

 

Edited October 7, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[Battrax]

I agree.  I may not operate at Lego's level, but my eBay sales seem to "go faster" when I create a false sense of scarcity.  There's a certain amount of power I have as a seller when my listing says that I've sold 5 units, and I'm down to my "last one!"  Most of my listings are always down to my "last one."

It was the Montreal store that supposedly had them.  I haven't called them.  I haven't seen anyone else mention that they have either.

Yep.  lol

As a disclaimer, while I came close to pulling the trigger on one of these when it started temporarily disappearing a few weeks ago, I don't own a 10188.

Now, as I don't have any sort of skin in the DS game, I don''t see any reason why a set that took so much development, has so many pieces and that sells so well for so many years should be discontinued unless the market shifts dramatically where other sets that require every bit of manufacturing capacity or resources are much more profitable. If I were a manager in TLG that has this as part of the product lines for which I were responsible, it would be very low in my priority list to do any change which would require retooling, changes to the inventory nevermind removal from sales channels. I'd speculate, as I am not privy to the actual financials, that as the development costs for this have been in most likelyhood recouped, it is just an issue for making enough for the market.

 

[Val-E]

As a disclaimer, while I came close to pulling the trigger on one of these when it started temporarily disappearing a few weeks ago, I don't own a 10188.

Now, as I don't have any sort of skin in the DS game, I don''t see any reason why a set that took so much development, has so many pieces and that sells so well for so many years should be discontinued unless the market shifts dramatically where other sets that require every bit of manufacturing capacity or resources are much more profitable. If I were a manager in TLG that has this as part of the product lines for which I were responsible, it would be very low in my priority list to do any change which would require retooling, changes to the inventory nevermind removal from sales channels. I'd speculate, as I am not privy to the actual financials, that as the development costs for this have been in most likelyhood recouped, it is just an issue for making enough for the market.

 

R and D has been more than amortized by now! Also, this set is the exception to the rule in terms of shelf life - if it weren´t for the price, there would be one in every household like a Dark Side of the Moon album....

By updating the packaging and the minifigs they could likely even sell multiple copies to the same collectors just like DSOH!

[gregpj]

I do not disagree with what you are saying.

Lego can do whatever Lego wants to do and does not have to care about anything.

That being said if you think about it seriously, for example, I am a humongous Jurassic fan.  Huge. I bought the video game on release day on vacation and took my console to play it and get the free gamestop exclusive 30320 poly (ha)

When I first saw the sets announced I was highly disappointed.  Why not more bigger better.

Think I was not the only one.  People on here were saying why did they not keep the dino line and rename it it was better (if I remember some comments correctly).

If Lego put fifty million copies of Jurassic World on every shelf in America and you saw so many copies and boxes you wanted to throw up It would lose the appeal much faster.

But completely short it, make it rare, make it a great investment (again for whatever reason) and hey wow that is Gold I want one.

It worked for me.

They can not do their entire portfolio of products that way but doing that to Jurassic World would keep the hype up and add to the mystery and desire of buying Lego.

Or else they could just do something like re release a winter toy shop set and we know no one would care lol

Limiting the release of an initial wave of sets obviously creates some demand and gauges the market desire for a set. A gigantic however is that Jurassic World sets are not their flagship sets... Gold Marios and some of those rare Air Jordans are FLAGSHIP sets. The Death Star is a FLAGSHIP set but it's also been out for 7 years? Is LEGO gauging market desire? I doubt it. Are they creating some perceived notion of rarity? For a seven year old set? Can't see it.

All I'm saying is that I believe a shortage for a set like the Death Star is for different reasons than for something like Indominus Rex Breakout. I'd even lump sets like Slave 1 and Sandcrawler into that category... they've been out for a while now, why would you create a perceived shortage NOW?

So my personal conclusion is simply that LEGO is doing many different things... but at the heart of it all is a business decision about what products can they bring to market that will sell and sell well. We play the game and so must they. That will ultimately drive production ... BUT production is a finite resource. They must balance things out to appeal to all segments of the market or one segment falters while another flourishes. That's not successful business. IMLTHO LEGO has been successful despite some obvious problems because they balance things fairly well.

PS JW wasn't bigger and better because it's not Star Wars. It's not Batman. It's not the Avengers. Those names have been around for years and years.... Jurassic Park is cool but it doesn't have the same fan base or life expectancy. And that's from a fan as well... maybe not as big as you, but a fan nonetheless.

(IMLTHO - In My Less Than Humble Opinion .. )

[trekgate502]

Limiting the release of an initial wave of sets obviously creates some demand and gauges the market desire for a set. A gigantic however is that Jurassic World sets are not their flagship sets... Gold Marios and some of those rare Air Jordans are FLAGSHIP sets. The Death Star is a FLAGSHIP set but it's also been out for 7 years? Is LEGO gauging market desire? I doubt it. Are they creating some perceived notion of rarity? For a seven year old set? Can't see it.

All I'm saying is that I believe a shortage for a set like the Death Star is for different reasons than for something like Indominus Rex Breakout. I'd even lump sets like Slave 1 and Sandcrawler into that category... they've been out for a while now, why would you create a perceived shortage NOW?

So my personal conclusion is simply that LEGO is doing many different things... but at the heart of it all is a business decision about what products can they bring to market that will sell and sell well. We play the game and so must they. That will ultimately drive production ... BUT production is a finite resource. They must balance things out to appeal to all segments of the market or one segment falters while another flourishes. That's not successful business. IMLTHO LEGO has been successful despite some obvious problems because they balance things fairly well.

PS JW wasn't bigger and better because it's not Star Wars. It's not Batman. It's not the Avengers. Those names have been around for years and years.... Jurassic Park is cool but it doesn't have the same fan base or life expectancy. And that's from a fan as well... maybe not as big as you, but a fan nonetheless.

(IMLTHO - In My Less Than Humble Opinion .. :P)

HA !

Sometimes a smart Jedi knows not to tangle with his opponent (and friend) too many times so I shall not dispute what thoust professes

And yes I have watched Jurassic World on iTunes every night since its release as background tv while I do paperwork  so I like it just a little