10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Ed Mack]

.... That's if there is a new box.

[Ciglione]

There is very little chance that this set would have retired this close to the new movie. A case could have been made earlier in the year when we saw shortages, but at this point... What would be the point of retiring it? The new box will only stimulate sales once again and keep this set quite popular till another large Death Star version takes its place. I think it's time for people to look at the hundreds of other potential sets out there as collectibles instead of the same few dozen. LEGO can't keep them all in production.

Ed, which other sets? The T1? PS? 

Let's face it. The sets that become a success are becoming less and less. Either they have long production run or they are prematurely hoarded upon release. The ones that are not massively hoarded and become winners are being remade within a year. 

[Locutus001]

Ed, which other sets? The T1? PS? 

Let's face it. The sets that become a success are becoming less and less. Either they have long production run or they are prematurely hoarded upon release. The ones that are not massively hoarded and become winners are being remade within a year. 

within a year ... or less! ;-)

[Ed Mack]

Ed, which other sets? The T1? PS? 

Let's face it. The sets that become a success are becoming less and less. Either they have long production run or they are prematurely hoarded upon release. The ones that are not massively hoarded and become winners are being remade within a year. 

When I was writing our book, it forced me to look at ALL of the themes. The sets discussed on this site are obvious choices and low hanging fruit, but there are dozens of high quality, under the radar themes and sets that will be solid to strong collectibles in the future...and will not be remade.

[glucapg]

Let's try to guess which are those sets......

[Val-E]

Let's try to guess which are those sets......

Kingdoms Joust, obviously!

[cissi]

I think Ed meant Friends.

[Val-E]

How many investors will have gone in deeper than they would have liked on this set in the last few months? If the new box is confirmed and a further life extension occurs, it is going to tie up quite lot of capital - cut losses and sell now while it is TOOS?

[dcdfan]

Obviously, Elves...

[dcdfan]

How many investors will have gone in deeper than they would have liked on this set in the last few months? If the new box is confirmed and a further life extension occurs, it is going to tie up quite lot of capital - cut losses and sell now while it is TOOS?

I have & have had no desire to touch this set for quite some time...

Here I am:

 

Edited October 4, 2015 by dcdfan

[glucapg]

Kingdoms Joust, obviously!

OF course

[KShine]

When I was writing our book, it forced me to look at ALL of the themes. The sets discussed on this site are obvious choices and low hanging fruit, but there are dozens of high quality, under the radar themes and sets that will be solid to strong collectibles in the future...and will not be remade.

 

Yes, we need to all start buying/hoarding the short lived themes that no one wanted - that will end well.

[Ed Mack]

Yes, we need to all start buying/hoarding the short lived themes that no one wanted - that will end well.

It has worked and will work for some people who buy the right sets.  The one thing that helps in this new marketplace with extended production runs is that there are more sets to choose than ever, about 700 different LEGO sets/items annually.  This is up from 400-500 LEGO sets/items being released annually 5 or 10 years ago.  Many of these sets are ignored, but are viable investments.  On a personal note, I just cannot buy all the sets I want to because of the sheer amount of sets to pick from, so I know there are opportunities I will miss out on.

[Guest ph4tb0i]

It has worked and will work for some people who buy the right sets.  The one thing that helps in this new marketplace with extended production runs is that there are more sets to choose than ever, about 700 different LEGO sets/items annually.  This is up from 400-500 LEGO sets/items being released annually 5 or 10 years ago.  Many of these sets are ignored, but are viable investments.  On a personal note, I just cannot buy all the sets I want to because of the sheer amount of sets to pick from, so I know there are opportunities I will miss out on.

Ditto on this. I went from wanting to collect a lot of city sets in addition to the trains/modulars to just forgetting about any city set unless it has a bus or a tram. 

[BrickLegacy]

Who knows, maybe the original box will be worth more?  Kind of like owning the original version of the film without Lucas screwing with the CGI.  This screams new SVP of Marketing trying to make an immediate splash with some silly marketing scheme.  I mostly kid, but maybe, just maybe that expert logo w/ Disney will turn off collectors. 

But seriously, an expert logo on everything?  C'mon LEGO, don't you have more important things to spend your time on like designing a new Winter set this year?

 

[KShine]

It has worked and will work for some people who buy the right sets.  The one thing that helps in this new marketplace with extended production runs is that there are more sets to choose than ever, about 700 different LEGO sets/items annually.  This is up from 400-500 LEGO sets/items being released annually 5 or 10 years ago.  Many of these sets are ignored, but are viable investments.  On a personal note, I just cannot buy all the sets I want to because of the sheer amount of sets to pick from, so I know there are opportunities I will miss out on.

Ditto on this. I went from wanting to collect a lot of city sets in addition to the trains/modulars to just forgetting about any city set unless it has a bus or a tram. 

More sets to choose from is not a good thing - ph4's comment is an example of how having more options available limits the selling potential of a set.

[Val-E]

I guess it is turning towards a flipping market.

[redcell]

When I was writing our book, it forced me to look at ALL of the themes. The sets discussed on this site are obvious choices and low hanging fruit, but there are dozens of high quality, under the radar themes and sets that will be solid to strong collectibles in the future...and will not be remade.

This is so true. I make a substantial amount of my profit each year on sets that are rarely if ever discussed here. I still buy and sell the big ones too, but there are far higher margins to be made on smaller sets.

[dcdfan]

 

This is so true. I make a substantial amount of my profit each year on sets that are rarely if ever discussed here. I still buy and sell the big ones too, but there are far higher margins to be made on smaller sets.

Absolutely. Agree 100%. Just 'cause we're not discussing it doesn't mean it's not happening...

[Ed Mack]

 

More sets to choose from is not a good thing - ph4's comment is an example of how having more options available limits the selling potential of a set.

It's a good thing for some.  I really don't want to sound like a broken record, but if a person chooses wisely, that set will appreciate in a lot of market conditions.  We all know that the days of no brain buying are over.  Even sets that were once considered guaranteed winners can become losers if they are reissued or have extended production runs.  Today's LEGO secondary market success is more about shortages/short term flipping and finding those sets that the horde ignores for long term investing.  There are still many opportunities for those with the eye to pick winners out of sets that were ignored for a long time.

[Yinchuan]

How many investors will have gone in deeper than they would have liked on this set in the last few months? If the new box is confirmed and a further life extension occurs, it is going to tie up quite lot of capital - cut losses and sell now while it is TOOS?

Given that these continue to be available at retail (on and off), is there a market out there willing to pay enough that you either break even or make a small profit on your stock?

[Mathew]

Lego gave you guys a hint with "...we're making more..." yet a lot still don't get it.  The Death Star is a flagship set.  With the new movies coming out that are directly tied to the original trilogy it would be nuts for them to just quit making it.  I am surprised that they haven't updated it with new box art and minifigs however.  Maybe that's what they are now doing.  But as long as it sells briskly I don't see it going anywhere for awhile.  Of course if the new movies under perform at the box-office and Star Wars fatigue sets in (I'm already feeling it) they could retire it before the end of 2016...

[fossilrock]

Lego gave you guys a hint with "...we're making more..." yet a lot still don't get it.  The Death Star is a flagship set.  With the new movies coming out that are directly tied to the original trilogy it would be nuts for them to just quit making it.  I am surprised that they haven't updated it with new box art and minifigs however.  Maybe that's what they are now doing.  But as long as it sells briskly I don't see it going anywhere for awhile.  Of course if the new movies under perform at the box-office and Star Wars fatigue sets in (I'm already feeling it) they could retire it before the end of 2016...

You can go back to page 80 and see it all go down.  There's everything from intense optimism, intense concerns about investment, and everything in between.  Granted, it's only been 2 and a half months since it went to sold out status, but this is one of those sets many thought were a big risk to begin with because it was bound to be remade for exactly the reasons you stated. 

And yes, I think Star Wars fatigue could hit.  Maybe not after Force Awakens, but it could start around Rogue One and that's when things could begin to turn south for investing in SW lego sets.

[trekgate502]

harrumph

Is this the death star channel or the debbie downer channel ?

by all means if it is that bad for you everyone should get out

or talk about how bad it is to encourage everyone else to get out

while secretly doubling down

ps thanks for the reminder it is almost time to start listing my 75030 and what not

 

Edited October 5, 2015 by trekgate502

[BrickLegacy]

Let's liven up this thread a bit.

10240 Sold Out