10188 - UCS: Death Star

[brickolodon]

I see Sold Out in US...OK...back to fishing, literally...

[dcdfan]

I find it funny how there is not even a listing of the Death Star in the EU Inventory update for today, but yet it is in stock in all these different EU regions.  Very odd!

Maybe Lego uses HP...

[Ciglione]

This was my main point in all of this.  The hoard mentality has grown to such an extent it's actually effecting Legos production runs/retirements/stock issues.

Even considering a couple of years ago, it seemed the reselling community was small enough that even when something whiffed of retirement stocks would still last a while.  But now, there has been such a boon, that resellers are actually making ripples in what Lego decides to do with production runs.  I mean if something goes out of stock on one site, boom, within hours every other retailer is being dried up.

Look, it's still fair, because people 'assumed' that 10188 was retired.  Just because something is sold out doesn't really mean a whole lot, especially with trends lately.  So you resellers have no one to blame but yourselves on this.  I was convinced myself this was going to come back.  I think this set will still be around for a while honestly.

With regards to me not saying the statement if it was for sure retired, is silly because it's still all based on assumption.

In regards to retirement, I have a gut feeling, that nothing is really going to be retiring this year.  Maybe early next year possibly, but I doubt at the moment.  I think all these retiring rumors are all the fault of resellers constantly panicking and buying up inventory the moment it's available and causing all these constant status changes on SAH.

I agree with the first part.

 

It would be fair if you would have posted the comment yesterday. That is what I am saying. Not after the fact. that is too easy.

 

I posted this thought yesterday as well. Or was it this morning? I do not remember. But if this becomes true. That no exclusives will retire this year. It will make the panic buying and F5 mentallity more understandable as a strategy.

[waddamon]

All I Care about is USA stock. Sold out still. Europe always has a screwy retirement system. Newbies around here ignore the fluff, this set is way long in the tooth. If you want them in your stock, do it now. If not move on. Too much back and forth on here, all the evidence must be looked at together in context. I wish I could find a few more in stock.

[Ciglione]

This was my main point in all of this.  The hoard mentality has grown to such an extent it's actually effecting Legos production runs/retirements/stock issues.

Even considering a couple of years ago, it seemed the reselling community was small enough that even when something whiffed of retirement stocks would still last a while.  But now, there has been such a boon, that resellers are actually making ripples in what Lego decides to do with production runs.  I mean if something goes out of stock on one site, boom, within hours every other retailer is being dried up.

Look, it's still fair, because people 'assumed' that 10188 was retired.  Just because something is sold out doesn't really mean a whole lot, especially with trends lately.  So you resellers have no one to blame but yourselves on this.  I was convinced myself this was going to come back.  I think this set will still be around for a while honestly.

With regards to me not saying the statement if it was for sure retired, is silly because it's still all based on assumption.

In regards to retirement, I have a gut feeling, that nothing is really going to be retiring this year.  Maybe early next year possibly, but I doubt at the moment.  I think all these retiring rumors are all the fault of resellers constantly panicking and buying up inventory the moment it's available and causing all these constant status changes on SAH.

I agree with you about the hoard mentallity influencing Lego.

 

However, I think it is not fair to make that statement after the fact. If you would have posted it yesterday would be much better.

 

I also posted this yesterday. Or was it this morning? I do not remember. Smaller and non-exclusive sets will generally have a shorter shelf-life. Exclusives will be arounf for a longer period of time. My 0.02.

[jerryherb]

"Were making more so buy it as its the last batch" is what I see. This thing is done by years end UNLESS license is renewed this time by Disney, not Lucas

[citymorgue]

Look, I see your point on saying something after the fact.  I'm not the most prolific poster.  I tend to stay behind the weeds and just read things and take everything in.  I know I'm not the only one that does this.  I like to observe things, and mentally, it's always been there for me that it just seemed like it was a fluke that this set was going to retire now. Either way, it still does blow my mind with the life the DS has.

I'm a through and through collector first.  I have some sealed things, but 95% are just polybags.  Every other set with the exception of like 2, are opened and displayed, so I honestly don't have any skin in the game with regards to this set.  I have my DS bought, built, and displayed.  I could care less anymore if this set retires now, or 10 years from now.

[redcell]

This was my main point in all of this.  The hoard mentality has grown to such an extent it's actually effecting Legos production runs/retirements/stock issues.

Even considering a couple of years ago, it seemed the reselling community was small enough that even when something whiffed of retirement stocks would still last a while.  But now, there has been such a boon, that resellers are actually making ripples in what Lego decides to do with production runs.  I mean if something goes out of stock on one site, boom, within hours every other retailer is being dried up.

 

And your evidence for this is...what?   

[citymorgue]

Have you not noticed how retailers will dry up within hours now across the board?  Target, walmart, amazon, SAH, etc.  Just 2 years ago, when I first got back into the game, even if something was rumored to be retiring, it was still easy to get at retail if need be, but now I freak out personally if through circumstances there's a set I hadn't been able to get at retail for a while, and then gets soaked up within an hour.  And even Ed has alluded to the fact that people have exploded in the reselling community.

It doesn't really take a rocket scientist in my opinion.  It's just been my careful observations over the last couple of years. It's actually interesting to see how the reselling trend is growing.  Especially the talks of bubbles.

Edited July 23, 2015 by citymorgue

[Ed Mack]

All I Care about is USA stock. Sold out still. Europe always has a screwy retirement system. Newbies around here ignore the fluff, this set is way long in the tooth. If you want them in your stock, do it now. If not move on. Too much back and forth on here, all the evidence must be looked at together in context. I wish I could find a few more in stock.

Yes, this is how I feel. We all know LEGO's system of tracking inventory is a little off at times and Sold Out can mean OOS or retired, but pay attention to the big picture. All these sets we have been discussing the last few days could be on the path to retirement, thus the reason why these sets showed up as Sold Out. There could still be another production run, but it also could indicate sets you need to focus on in the next 6 months. Glitch or not, these particular sets seem to have a lot in common.

[Ciglione]

 

 

Fair enough.

[fossilrock]

I can honestly see lego prolonging exclusives and the larger sets, simply because they are money makers, and in the end it makes sense.  Those don't require the sheer amount of  distribution like your average run of smaller sets.  So, they can continue to produce another 5000 death stars, ship them out to their channels, then they slowly phase out, then rinse and repeat.  Until they finally bring on the new Death Star next year, and then of course it will retire, but a new one will be out that will probably be 80% close to the original, just like the new MF, and new X-wing (ohhh they changed the colors from white to black, my bad). 

So, i'm going to continue with the "I think the Death Star is a mediocre investment" mantra.  I know i've annoyed enough people already saying that, but that's been my gut feeling all along.   I don't even think this set topped 600 yet on amazon or ebay, and if this comes back, it will be back to 500 in no time flat, making it pointless as an investment until it does retire, and so if people aren't willing to commit to death stars for at least 4 to 5 years to make some decent returns, then don't buy it, and definitely always question the hoard/herd mentality that can permeate on this site.

[asharerin]

Have you not noticed how retailers will dry up within hours now across the board?  Target, walmart, amazon, SAH, etc.  Just 2 years ago, when I first got back into the game, even if something was rumored to be retiring, it was still easy to get at retail if need be, but now I freak out personally if through circumstances there's a set I hadn't been able to get at retail for a while, and then gets soaked up within an hour.  And even Ed has alluded to the fact that people have exploded in the reselling community.

It doesn't really take a rocket scientist in my opinion.  It's just been my careful observations over the last couple of years. It's actually interesting to see how the reselling trend is growing.  Especially the talks of bubbles.

This is certainly the trend. Reselling online is exploding across the board. Another new trend that those who hold for the long term may wish to consider is big brands reaching out to the large ecommerce platforms and asking sales be restricted to authorised resellers. Amazon and ebay do comply with these requests. In the USA you have the right to resell any item you own, but the ecommerce platforms also have the right not to allow you to sell on their site if they do require you to be an authorised reseller of the product. I am not saying I have any info Lego is interested in doing this but more and more big brands are moving in this way to protect their brand from the ever growing reselling community. Something to consider.

[gbg108]

This is certainly the trend. Reselling online is exploding across the board. Another new trend that those who hold for the long term may wish to consider is big brands reaching out to the large ecommerce platforms and asking sales be restricted to authorised resellers. Amazon and ebay do comply with these requests. In the USA you have the right to resell any item you own, but the ecommerce platforms also have the right not to allow you to sell on their site if they do require you to be an authorised reseller of the product. I am not saying I have any info Lego is interested in doing this but more and more big brands are moving in this way to protect their brand from the ever growing reselling community. Something to consider.

It's an interesting point and I can certainly understand why TLG wouldn't want current sets listed on eBay or Amazon market place but I don't see why they would want to prevent retired products from being listed. Having older sets grow in value helps justify a $200+ MSRP for a box of plastic and give lego fans access to sets no longer produced.

So I would see that more an issue for QFLL than long term.

[fossilrock]

This is certainly the trend. Reselling online is exploding across the board. Another new trend that those who hold for the long term may wish to consider is big brands reaching out to the large ecommerce platforms and asking sales be restricted to authorised resellers. Amazon and ebay do comply with these requests. In the USA you have the right to resell any item you own, but the ecommerce platforms also have the right not to allow you to sell on their site if they do require you to be an authorised reseller of the product. I am not saying I have any info Lego is interested in doing this but more and more big brands are moving in this way to protect their brand from the ever growing reselling community. Something to consider.

If that happens, other sites will be spurred off and take advantage and fill the niche.  Ebay's bread and butter has always been that it's like a big yard sale, so I don't see them necessarily agreeing with that.  I could see Amazon heading that way though. 

Personally, there's one niche site that I want to see happen in the collectors market, and that's a serious trading site that minimizes the risk of the two parties involved.  I know the baseball card market has a few of these sites, and the coin market has some very basic sites.   This is one niche that hasn't occurred very heavily in lego, and bricklink dabbles in it, but it's not that solid.  And I want to see a place fill that niche.  Not all investments are strictly for selling.  Sometimes trading is just as advantageous, especially for those of us that not only invest, but also collect.  Simply put, it would be nice where you can make an agreed upon trade between two parties, and a middle man is involved or there is a better way to make sure a trade is completed and made without much risk of just blindly sending approximately a thousand dollar set, hoping that the other guy might do the same.  I'd like to see where you ship it to them to where content is verified and then reshipped to the agreed parties.  For those of us that collect other things other than legos, really the only big outlet to possibly do this is big trade shows.  It would be nice to do this online too. The trade page here is nice, but I could see it growing, if the mods want it too.  This could be a nice niche to fill in the lego collectibles market.
 

[asharerin]

If that happens, other sites will be spurred off and take advantage and fill the niche.  Ebay's bread and butter has always been that it's like a big yard sale, so I don't see them necessarily agreeing with that.  I could see Amazon heading that way though. 

I just wanted to make the point that the selling side is changing just as fast as the buying side. 2 years ago if you would have told people that Lego would be banning people from buying their products they would have laughed at you. If you are expecting to unload a large volume of items in a few years and suddenly find out the brand is restricted and you cannot list as "new" because you are not an authorised reseller it could be an eye opener if you don;t have a backup plan.

[zskid00]

So nothing has changed in the US, which is all I care about honestly.  We know there can be stark differences between the US and EU availability and secondary markets.  Do people forget what happened last year?  Look at all of the exclusives that sold out during the year and then retired - SSD, GE, TH, SC, HE, HH, R2-D2, and AA.  Some of those had their status change several times from backorder to in stock to sold out to in stock to sold out then eventually to retired product.  They popped up on Amazon sometimes months after they sold out from LEGO but they sure didn't last long.  They are all doing just fine now.  

More exclusives will be sold out and effectively retired this year.  You can take that to the bank.  LEGO can't keep making all of their current sets while adding new exclusives monthly and launching massive waves of retail sets across all of their themes.  Some things have to go when it's time.

And about this hoard mentality.  Certainly there is more competition now than there was just a few years ago, but there's still good money to be made if you do your homework and exhibit some patience that extends beyond your next credit card payment due date.  I wish the hoard would wipe out those EEEs and Exo Suits.  I have only a couple of each but they've had the dreaded "retiring soon" tag for months which seems like the kiss of death to resellers.  

Edited July 23, 2015 by zskid00

[Grynn]

I thought about this...

Probably the message that they will make more is not aimed at us investors and resellers. It is aimed at the ordinary customer who missed the boat. It is simply saying: "Do not go out and buy this product for inflated prices from reseller scum on ebay and/or other platforms. We are making more. Just be patient and do not panic".

edit: Also aimed at Darin.

Yeah one of the things I notice people don't do around here is consider the viewpoint of the average consumer / gift giver too much. I have no doubt the amount of hassle Lego got in terms of "I NEED to know if you are making more because those scum resellers have already jacked up the price to $600 and if it is retired, I have to go pay that now before it gets higher - why can't you just put a note on the website if you are making more??" calls was pretty intense.

I found it hilarious to see people suggesting, even in jest, that it was a "secret" note to resellers not to panic buy, rather than the exact opposite - a simple yet effective move against the QFLL that helps keep call-takers employed as well.

 

[Guest ph4tb0i]

Isn't Lego ranked in the top 2 of things that are sold on eBay collectibles (I think the first was baseball cards or something)? If they implement a reseller rule it would definitely kill them as well so I don't really see this happening any time soon (if at all). 

You're going to get businesses popping in and out and flipping Lego like those photocopy places at university selling contraband textbooks. hahaha

[Ciglione]

I just wanted to make the point that the selling side is changing just as fast as the buying side. 2 years ago if you would have told people that Lego would be banning people from buying their products they would have laughed at you. If you are expecting to unload a large volume of items in a few years and suddenly find out the brand is restricted and you cannot list as "new" because you are not an authorised reseller it could be an eye opener if you don;t have a backup plan.

True. 

That is why I am decreasing my stack instead of increasing. Cause if, heaven forbid, something drastically will change in the way we can sell it will be very difficult to get ridd of your stack. Offcourse people always find ways to evade these restrictions. But it also is about easy accessability for noob customers. Why are we getting the prices we are getting now? Cause many people are lazy and just go to ebay and amazon and buy our sets. They do not have the time or the energy to research the market. So if selling on well-known platforms as ebay and amazon gets restricted we can pack and go home.

[Guest ph4tb0i]

Relevant..

 

[gregpj]

I just wanted to make the point that the selling side is changing just as fast as the buying side. 2 years ago if you would have told people that Lego would be banning people from buying their products they would have laughed at you. If you are expecting to unload a large volume of items in a few years and suddenly find out the brand is restricted and you cannot list as "new" because you are not an authorised reseller it could be an eye opener if you don;t have a backup plan.

My backup plan is to build everything!

[botchy123]

This is certainly the trend. Reselling online is exploding across the board. Another new trend that those who hold for the long term may wish to consider is big brands reaching out to the large ecommerce platforms and asking sales be restricted to authorised resellers. Amazon and ebay do comply with these requests. In the USA you have the right to resell any item you own, but the ecommerce platforms also have the right not to allow you to sell on their site if they do require you to be an authorised reseller of the product. I am not saying I have any info Lego is interested in doing this but more and more big brands are moving in this way to protect their brand from the ever growing reselling community. Something to consider.

It really depends on how much Lego, Amazon & ebay want to lose in potential future revenue. At the end of the day i imagine lots of resellers buy Lego from authorised sellers, then pay pay commission to marketplaces and buy more Lego again from authorised resellers and repeat. At the end of the day people are just aiming to better themselves and earn a few pounds, dollars, yen & euro etc. Upsetting your best customers has never worked in business.

[jaisonline]

so you won't be doing mass returns this weekend?  i'm all ready with my 10188s. ha

 

My backup plan is to build everything!

 

[gregpj]

so you won't be doing mass returns this weekend?  i'll all ready with my 10188s. ha

 

 

Never returned a LEGO set in my life, not going to start now. I never bought any of my 10188's during this frenzy anyways.