10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Jeff Mack]

Here was today's update on EU Inventory for the Death Star.  They are moving, wonder how long it will take to get it to 0

[Miami Bomb Squad]

People are going to be surprise by how fast this hits $1000. 

[micbelt]

What is with people assuming that just because a newer version of a set comes out, the retired version will automatically be secind fiddle? How many people would rather have the old batcave over 6860? How about the death star 2 over 10188? Investors seem to be overlooking the power of the lego brand and the enthusiam new fans have for collecting, especially when they first get into it. I mean,  just look at me. I just started collecting and investing in december and I have spent a ton on sets for myself. Also, there is not a finite group of people these will be sold to. There are new lego fans made everyday.

[tacsniper]

What is with people assuming that just because a newer version of a set comes out, the retired version will automatically be secind fiddle? How many people would rather have the old batcave over 6860? How about the death star 2 over 10188? Investors seem to be overlooking the power of the lego brand and the enthusiam new fans have for collecting, especially when they first get into it. I mean,  just look at me. I just started collecting and investing in december and I have spent a ton on sets for myself. Also, there is not a finite group of people these will be sold to. There are new lego fans made everyday.

Agree. Not everyone likes all the new stuff. There will always be someone who will prefer the previous generation stuff.

[dcdfan]

People are going to be surprise by how fast this hits $1000. 

I'm not sure it can before SSD, though...Am I wrong?

[tractorboy]

So are we saying a re-make wouldn't be an issue now? It would be great if it didn't, but I think that's some pretty wishful thinking. Some people might prefer to pay a premium for the older version, but many won't. And that will have an effect on gains.

[asharerin]

So are we saying a re-make wouldn't be an issue now? It would be great if it didn't, but I think that's some pretty wishful thinking. Some people might prefer to pay a premium for the older version, but many won't. And that will have an effect on gains.

I think it really depends on how closely the new design is to 10188. If it is a close rehash with updated build techniques, updated minifigs, power functions ready but a close replica with most of the same scenes then it will have a profound effect on the resale value of 10188. If the new playset depicts all different scenes then I think there will still be a good market for 10188 as collectors will want both.

I can't imagine the new star wars flagship model will be anything less than spectacular tho no matter what direction they take.

[trekgate502]

Not true.  Not even close.

hmmm

[micbelt]

So are we saying a re-make wouldn't be an issue now? It would be great if it didn't, but I think that's some pretty wishful thinking. Some people might prefer to pay a premium for the older version, but many won't. And that will have an effect on gains.

I am not saying it won't matter, but there is a difference with saying it might have an affect and people acting like a new DS means doom and gloom for 10188.

[dcdfan]

No matter what happens this will be very interesting...

[Ciglione]

No matter what happens this will be very interesting...

Interesting indeed... if you own 10 DS's that will be roughly about 4k... Interesting indeed. 

[Frank Brickowski]

Not true.  Not even close.

Maybe all the real DS hoarders just don't set up a Brickfolio...

[redcell]

So are we saying a re-make wouldn't be an issue now? It would be great if it didn't, but I think that's some pretty wishful thinking. Some people might prefer to pay a premium for the older version, but many won't. And that will have an effect on gains.

Yes. Any new DS won't be the Lego equivalent of Gus Van Sants remake of Psycho (i.e., a brick by brick remake). It will be something different...maybe better, maybe not, but definitely different. After all, it's not like 10188 affected the price of the original UCS DS.

[Vinetu]

Guys, don't shoot the messenger, I am watching this one from the sidelines and am seriously wishing you fantastic profits. I just raised what I believe to be legit concerns, you are at total liberty to dismiss them as worthless babbling. But, IF the sequel is similar & not to far off in the future, value can take a hit. That and the fact that hoarded quantities by this crowd far outweigh the mainstream market (well-off parents who want to please their children for Xmas). Enthusiasts market (i.e. people who wanted it, could afford it and didn't pick it up in last 7 years)? I seriously think emazers could see to them :p

[GhostDad]

What is with people assuming that just because a newer version of a set comes out, the retired version will automatically be secind fiddle? How many people would rather have the old batcave over 6860? How about the death star 2 over 10188? Investors seem to be overlooking the power of the lego brand and the enthusiam new fans have for collecting, especially when they first get into it. I mean,  just look at me. I just started collecting and investing in december and I have spent a ton on sets for myself. Also, there is not a finite group of people these will be sold to. There are new lego fans made everyday.

There's something to this.  New MTT is much worse than old MTT.  New Sail Barge is much worse than old Sail Barge.  New Batcave is awful next to old Batcave.  And so on.  On the other hand, 75055 definitely hurt 6211, and there are other examples along those lines as well.  What DS really has going for it is that it was released and priced in a different era.  If 10188 came out tomorrow, it would be MSRP $499, guaranteed.  So there's a little cushion built in right there.  It would also be truly unprecedented for anything close to a remake of the original DS to be released the very next year after retirement.  Generally there is a much, much longer period between remakes of UCS SW sets.  In any case, I bought all my DS's last year, before this ridiculous rumor came out (bigger, better, updated, autographed by Harrison Ford, all for the same price), so it was completely non-actionable for me (except that I didn't buy any more DS this year; 17 is quite enough I think, though emazers and perhaps waddamon would disagree).

Yes. Any new DS won't be the Lego equivalent of Gus Van Sants remake of Psycho (i.e., a brick by brick remake). It will be something different...maybe better, maybe not, but definitely different. After all, it's not like 10188 affected the price of the original UCS DS.

Playing Devil's advocate for a moment here, I'll point out those were two entirely different Death Stars (just ask Luke).

[waddamon]

I don't disagree. If I had more space, I would have added more. Emazers advice to me has been sound, so I went for 30. I would be at 36 but traded a few off last year when is went out of stock and prices spiked.

[botchy123]

I don't disagree. If I had more space, I would have added more. Emazers advice to me has been sound, so I went for 30. I would be at 36 but traded a few off last year when is went out of stock and prices spiked.

Just curious, what timeframe do you imagine keeping them for?

[redcell]

Playing Devil's advocate for a moment here, I'll point out those were two entirely different Death Stars (just ask Luke).

Exactly...I'm not sure why anyone would think that -- at that price point -- TLG would release a new DS in the near future that is close enough in design to 10188 to hinder the price appreciation of 10188 on the secondary market.  Chances are that any new DS will be exactly that...a new DS set.   

[Ed Mack]

hmmm

The 10188 isn't even in the Top 10.  

[Kenxxx]

I was just going back in this thread... trying to catch up on the history.  It's interesting there was an EOL scare right about this time last year (starts around page 24 or 25? of this thread).  10188 went TOOS at LEGO Shop at Home, disappeared from the major retailers in mid July 2014. Target raised the price... this thread caught on fire... then started shipping again in late August.

[dcdfan]

Someone asked earlier if the shipping carton matters...someone just sold one in the shipping carton for $599.99 on eBay...

[Ciglione]

This business starts to look more and more like the real stock market. When there are rumours or signs of a take-over or merge of companies prices spike!

If this all turns out to be false alarm this person who sold for $600 is a real lego broker. Respect!

[botchy123]

This business starts to look more and more like the real stock market. When there are rumours or signs of a take-over or merge of companies prices spike!

If this all turns out to be false alarm this person who sold for $600 is a real lego broker. Respect!

It is exactly like that but more difficult to sell  

[stephen_rockefeller]

Yes. Any new DS won't be the Lego equivalent of Gus Van Sants remake of Psycho (i.e., a brick by brick remake). It will be something different...maybe better, maybe not, but definitely different. After all, it's not like 10188 affected the price of the original UCS DS.

How do you know the 10188 HASN'T had an affect on the 10143????

Someone asked earlier if the shipping carton matters...someone just sold one in the shipping carton for $599.99 on eBay...

its hard to decipher legit ebay sales from non legit sales though, that's the problem.

 

[GhostDad]

I was just going back in this thread... trying to catch up on the history.  It's interesting there was an EOL scare right about this time last year (starts around page 24 or 25? of this thread).  10188 went TOOS at LEGO Shop at Home, disappeared from the major retailers in mid July 2014. Target raised the price... this thread caught on fire... then started shipping again in late August.

Technically, no.  10188 never went Toos last year.  It went 'out of stock, will ship whenever'.  That status is fairly common, even with new releases, and still allows orders to be placed.  The set did go for several months only available at LEGO Shop at Home, and only as a backorder.  Combined with the limit drop to 2, I took this as evidence of retirement.  Others did as well, but the set eventually came back.  Note that PS and T1 behaved in exactly the same way last summer - fall.

Since I'm currently using one stack of DS's as a TV stand and another as a packing table for sets that actually retire and get sold, I'll miss these when I finally get around to selling them.  Mentally, I've been thinking of my DS's as IRA funds.  Which is to say, they're untouchable until I turn 59.5, at which point even the super duper new DS ought to be long retired, and the colonists on Alpha Centauri will pay a hefty premium for antique plastic toys from the early 2000's.

Edited July 19, 2015 by GhostDad