10188 - UCS: Death Star

[lawnboy1001]

Thanks everyone, I looked over the second seal on that side a little more closely and it looked a little questionable; so i went with the blow dryer approach.  Boxes 1-4 inside looked like they had good seals.  I think I'll just keep this one for my personal collection anyways (also, I need to invest in a good scale!).

[Grynn]

Disclaimer: I have no horse in this race, being too late to the game to stock up early and not enough capital to go nuts on this set in the last year or two, so for those and many reasons people have already stated, I avoided it for investment. I did grab one in a perfect box this spring for myself before it was too late.

 

I think this initial spike (which may happen more than once in the next few months, if the death star is only "mostly dead" at this point) is truly the only predictable growth for this set, other than growth in general. Why?

The apparent EOL timing is like NOTHING we have seen before:

- 7 full years in production, essentially unheard of... 

- Substantially into the "popular" era of Lego investing, where an exponentially greater number of people are pouncing on it at the seemingly most opportune time...

- A few months prior to the massive hype for Star Wars in general, meaning not only extra interest but extra product competing for the consumer's dollar...

- and an unknown time period prior to the "remake", should such rumors prove true.

 

I suppose one can look at almost every set as a unique situation, but as the post-10179 "Top Dog" in Star Wars, if not all of Lego, everything is magnified here. Let's face it, this is kind of a big deal. So, a little analyzing and comparison from Brickset using these numbers makes me think:

 

Death Star (1.25)

7647 people have the set

6136 people want the set

In production 7 years

$400 US

 

Millenium Falcon (0.4)

2749 HAVE

6924 WANT

Produced 2.5 years, EOL over 5 years

$500 US

 

Super Star Destroyer (0.84)

4045 HAVE

4822 WANT

Produced nearly 3 years, EOL about 1 year

$400 US

 

R2-D2 (1.93)

5769

2990

Produced 2.5 years, EOL less than 1

$180 US

 

Ewok Village (0.84)

3773 have

4488 want

In production nearly 2 years

$250 US

 

Red 5 (1.25)

4108

3276

In production 2+ years

$200 US

 

Sandcrawler (0.67)

2634

3927

In Production 1+ years

$300 US

 

Slave I (0.72)

2552

3544

In production less than 1 year

$200 US

 

Tower Bridge (1.84)

5696 have

3092 want

In production nearly 5 years

$240 US

 

Fire Brigade (2.29)

10206 have

4453 want

Produced 4 years, EOL for 2

$150 US

 

Grand Emporium (2.64)

11545

4379

Produced 4.5 years, EOL nearly 1

$150 US

 

Pet Shop (2.76)

11117

4032

In production 4+ years

$150 US

 

Palace Cinema (2.22)

8826

3983

In production 2+ years

$150 US

 

Town Hall (1.89)

8294

4378

Produced 2.5 years, EOL nearly 1

$200 US

 

T1 VW Camper Van (3.81)

9071 have

2379 want

In production nearly 4 years

$120 US

 

 

1. More people WANT this set than any other listed except 10179 - significantly more than SSD (#2), nearly twice as many as EV (#3) and TH (#4), over twice as many as R2 and TB,  No doubt the price point is the major factor here, especially considering the production life. If all those people couldn't afford it in the last 7 years, why would they pay a (major) premium in the next 3? There are valid answers to this question, but think about it. With the increased awareness of post-availability value spikes, how many of those people are biting the bullet and getting one now before prices supposedly skyrocket? How many "unaware" future customers do not use Brickset?

2. There ARE a lot of people who OWN this set already - nearly 3x as many as 10179, 2x SSD, more than R2 and TB, nearly as many as TH, but not nearly as many as FB/GE/PS. How many owners have extras to sell in the coming months / years? How many investors check the box on Brickset?

3. Overall interest (HAVE + WANT) is nearly that of FB/GE/PS, more than T1/TB/R2, way more than SSD. Clearly this stat isn't a main factor in terms of investment value.

4. The ratio (HAVE / WANT) is basically half that of FB/GE/PS and much less than R2/TH. This is a very good sign in theory, but going back to the price point, how many of those unfulfilled wishes will come true? And how many will forget / modify their dream once the new set comes out? That ratio will obviously increase as time goes on, and it is already well above (worse than) SSD, which is performing worse than R2/TH so far. However, long-retired UCS sets with even better ratios have not done well as investments, so do these numbers really mean anything?

 

(Stick that in your ventilation shaft and smoke it)

 

[dcdfan]

Disclaimer: I have no horse in this race, being too late to the game to stock up early and not enough capital to go nuts on this set in the last year or two, so for those and many reasons people have already stated, I avoided it for investment. I did grab one in a perfect box this spring for myself before it was too late.

 

I think this initial spike (which may happen more than once in the next few months, if the death star is only "mostly dead" at this point) is truly the only predictable growth for this set, other than growth in general. Why?

The apparent EOL timing is like NOTHING we have seen before:

- 7 full years in production, essentially unheard of... 

- Substantially into the "popular" era of Lego investing, where an exponentially greater number of people are pouncing on it at the seemingly most opportune time...

- A few months prior to the massive hype for Star Wars in general, meaning not only extra interest but extra product competing for the consumer's dollar...

- and an unknown time period prior to the "remake", should such rumors prove true.

 

I suppose one can look at almost every set as a unique situation, but as the post-10179 "Top Dog" in Star Wars, if not all of Lego, everything is magnified here. Let's face it, this is kind of a big deal. So, a little analyzing and comparison from Brickset using these numbers makes me think:

 

Death Star (1.25)

7647 people have the set

6136 people want the set

In production 7 years

$400 US

 

Millenium Falcon (0.4)

2749 HAVE

6924 WANT

Produced 2.5 years, EOL over 5 years

$500 US

 

Super Star Destroyer (0.84)

4045 HAVE

4822 WANT

Produced nearly 3 years, EOL about 1 year

$400 US

 

R2-D2 (1.93)

5769

2990

Produced 2.5 years, EOL less than 1

$180 US

 

Ewok Village (0.84)

3773 have

4488 want

In production nearly 2 years

$250 US

 

Red 5 (1.25)

4108

3276

In production 2+ years

$200 US

 

Sandcrawler (0.67)

2634

3927

In Production 1+ years

$300 US

 

Slave I (0.72)

2552

3544

In production less than 1 year

$200 US

 

Tower Bridge (1.84)

5696 have

3092 want

In production nearly 5 years

$240 US

 

Fire Brigade (2.29)

10206 have

4453 want

Produced 4 years, EOL for 2

$150 US

 

Grand Emporium (2.64)

11545

4379

Produced 4.5 years, EOL nearly 1

$150 US

 

Pet Shop (2.76)

11117

4032

In production 4+ years

$150 US

 

Palace Cinema (2.22)

8826

3983

In production 2+ years

$150 US

 

Town Hall (1.89)

8294

4378

Produced 2.5 years, EOL nearly 1

$200 US

 

T1 VW Camper Van (3.81)

9071 have

2379 want

In production nearly 4 years

$120 US

 

 

1. More people WANT this set than any other listed except 10179 - significantly more than SSD (#2), nearly twice as many as EV (#3) and TH (#4), over twice as many as R2 and TB,  No doubt the price point is the major factor here, especially considering the production life. If all those people couldn't afford it in the last 7 years, why would they pay a (major) premium in the next 3? There are valid answers to this question, but think about it. With the increased awareness of post-availability value spikes, how many of those people are biting the bullet and getting one now before prices supposedly skyrocket? How many "unaware" future customers do not use Brickset?

2. There ARE a lot of people who OWN this set already - nearly 3x as many as 10179, 2x SSD, more than R2 and TB, nearly as many as TH, but not nearly as many as FB/GE/PS. How many owners have extras to sell in the coming months / years? How many investors check the box on Brickset?

3. Overall interest (HAVE + WANT) is nearly that of FB/GE/PS, more than T1/TB/R2, way more than SSD. Clearly this stat isn't a main factor in terms of investment value.

4. The ratio (HAVE / WANT) is basically half that of FB/GE/PS and much less than R2/TH. This is a very good sign in theory, but going back to the price point, how many of those unfulfilled wishes will come true? And how many will forget / modify their dream once the new set comes out? That ratio will obviously increase as time goes on, and it is already well above (worse than) SSD, which is performing worse than R2/TH so far. However, long-retired UCS sets with even better ratios have not done well as investments, so do these numbers really mean anything?

 

(Stick that in your ventilation shaft and smoke it)

 

I need more EV...

[Gonkalin]

Just talked to a Lego store manager. Called in to see if they had any in stock. He told me that it's not retiring and he has no idea why it says sold out. He said he is being told he will get shipments through the end of the year and another shipment is supposed to come in the next week or so to his store. 

Edited July 18, 2015 by Gonkalin

[Michalwroc]

Yeah I remember going to Legoland in Billund as a kid, that was around 20 years ago.. Enjoyed it so much and all the rides were just awesome, and that was so long ago.. Cant wait to visit this place again as an adult with my own kids..

sorry totally wrong topic, please delate Thanks:)

Edited July 18, 2015 by Michalwroc

[micbelt]

Has anyone here sold a 10188? If so, roughly how much did it cost to ship this bad boy NISB?

[iahawks550]

Depends how you are shipping it, where you are shipping to/from, and type of postage. Probably anywhere from $18-$35

[newbie77]

Depends how you are shipping it, where you are shipping to/from, and type of postage. Probably anywhere from $18-$35

from east coast to west.

insurance and DSR its going to cost around 41.13 { fed-ex ground/home shipping } or USPS/UPS will be close to that figure.  anywhere else will be less than that

[trekgate502]

Death Star pricing taking a bit of a nose dive.

Lowest at Amazon is 578.49.  Jinx!

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B002EEP3NO/ref=dp_olp_new?ie=UTF8&condition=new

[tacsniper]

Death Star pricing taking a bit of a nose dive.

Lowest at Amazon is 578.49.  Jinx!

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B002EEP3NO/ref=dp_olp_new?ie=UTF8&condition=new

I am seeing $799 on .ca side ... even then why are we looking at it? Shouldnt we at least aim to double our money after fees/shipping?

Edited July 19, 2015 by tacsniper

[GhostDad]

I am seeing $799 on .ca side ... even then why are we looking at it? Shouldnt we at least aim to double our money after fees/shipping?

I'm just looking to break even.  It would still beat EDB...

[trekgate502]

I am seeing $799 on .ca side ... even then why are we looking at it? Shouldnt we at least aim to double our money after fees/shipping?

im not looking to sell just amused by all those saying what a non ucs ugly gray ball non to scale play set not adult oriented over rated pile of bricks without a nameplate it is.  Let see out of stock at 399.95 and to $578 in less than a weekl. Not bad for such a dog.

[pickleboy]

 

did you check the content of the set or weighed it? it may sound like a lot but if not 20%($80.00) is not going to make up for the difference if some major bag is missing in there. or just the manual for that matter. when you are selling this later for $800/$900 and someone returns for missing manual or whatever you are in the hook for 2Xshipping that alone would eat up that 20% break one got.

imagine the damage its going to do to your business if the buyer thought that you are the one who took out and tried to stiff him/her.

Mine was not actually a seal issue.  They slapped a label on the outside of the box and mailed it.  The entire box was taped up so it could not be opened and the box was in great condition...minus the label on it.  

[newbie77]

Death Star pricing taking a bit of a nose dive.

Lowest at Amazon is 578.49.  Jinx!

http://www.amazon.com/gp/offer-listing/B002EEP3NO/ref=dp_olp_new?ie=UTF8&condition=new

for $399.99+tax purchase price it has to reach at the very least the price of $580 which it did.

don't expect this to jump much higher at least for 1-2 month. there has to be decent demand to absorb the quick flippers. anyway if we look @ what happened to 10221 we do know that it has to be a while before this crosses 600 mark.

Mine was not actually a seal issue.  They slapped a label on the outside of the box and mailed it.  The entire box was taped up so it could not be opened and the box was in great condition...minus the label on it.  

and you are happy with 20% unless its for the personal build !

[dcdfan]

im not looking to sell just amused by all those saying what a non ucs ugly gray ball non to scale play set not adult oriented over rated pile of bricks without a nameplate it is.  Let see out of stock at 399.95 and to $578 in less than a weekl. Not bad for such a dog.

I don't recall anyone saying "ugly gray ball," "over rated pile of bricks" or "dog"...did I miss a couple posts?

[stephen_rockefeller]

I don't recall ever hearing anything like that.

[Vinetu]

I don't recall anyone saying "ugly gray ball," "over rated pile of bricks" or "dog"...did I miss a couple posts?

I referred to its investment potential as "a great pile of light bluish grey spare parts" at one point (well I still think that's what it'll be mid- to long term if TLG releases an updated product in 2016...), but I don't understand how anyone could call it ugly or an underdog. That's a set that pulled me out of my dark ages 5 years ago and there's a reason why it's been around longer than any other Lego set ever.

[trekgate502]

I don't recall anyone saying "ugly gray ball," "over rated pile of bricks" or "dog"...did I miss a couple posts?

I was referring to what I have heard it called

[KShine]

I referred to its investment potential as "a great pile of light bluish grey spare parts" at one point (well I still think that's what it'll be mid- to long term if TLG releases an updated product in 2016...), but I don't understand how anyone could call it ugly or an underdog. That's a set that pulled me out of my dark ages 5 years ago and there's a reason why it's been around longer than any other Lego set ever.

It appears that you might have underestimated just how much demand there would be for "a great pile of light bluish grey spare parts".

[dcdfan]

I was referring to what I have heard it called

Yes. I got that. I just didn't realize people had been using those terms to describe DS. I really had no idea. My apologies as it seems they had...

[Vinetu]

It appears that you might have underestimated just how much demand there would be for "a great pile of light bluish grey spare parts".

Oh I don't question there's demand. Whether or not there's 600+$ ready demand outside of our dysfunctional little family (that's going to persist once TLG launches an improved 4k+ pieces one...) is another matter

[tacsniper]

Oh I don't question there's demand. Whether or not there's 600+$ ready demand outside of our dysfunctional little family (that's going to persist once TLG launches an improved 4k+ pieces one...) is another matter

Wait till the SW hype to start in the fall when the big box stores flood consumer's brain with every wall covered with SW products

Edited July 19, 2015 by tacsniper

[Vinetu]

Wait till the SW hype to start in the fall when the big box stores flood consumer's brain with every wall covered with SW products

Oh, I don't contest that either It's going to be a hell of a hype. But first of all, DS is still largely available in Europe (it's literally everywhere from LEGO Shop at Home to major retailers), so I believe that any non-horde consumer will have ample time to get their own box at MSRP.  Even if retail stocks dry out by December (which I doubt personally) that would leave us with less than a year to bleed out resellers' stock of the most hoarded set of all times. Good luck selling that set once a "better, bigger" version with updated minifigs hit the shelves (and TLG wouldn't go long without its flagship product in the most hype-crazy SW year).

I simply can't rationally foresee more than 20-25% QF profit during the 1 year window of opportunity. And the sheer size of that set and shipping costs isn't making it worth my while for that kind of profits. I know that many people here believe they are holding a new MF or SSD and are dreaming of 1000+ selling prices on it, but this is, again IMHO, just wishful thinking. If anytime that happens, I won't have a problem saying "congrats, well done for you", but then again, as everything else, it's just risk/benefit ratio...

[Ed Mack]

Oh, I don't contest that either It's going to be a hell of a hype. But first of all, DS is still largely available in Europe (it's literally everywhere from LEGO Shop at Home to major retailers), so I believe that any non-horde consumer will have ample time to get their own box at MSRP.  Even if retail stocks dry out by December (which I doubt personally) that would leave us with less than a year to bleed out resellers' stock of the most hoarded set of all times. Good luck selling that set once a "better, bigger" version with updated minifigs hit the shelves (and TLG wouldn't go long without its flagship product in the most hype-crazy SW year).

I simply can't rationally foresee more than 20-25% QF profit during the 1 year window of opportunity. And the sheer size of that set and shipping costs isn't making it worth my while for that kind of profits. I know that many people here believe they are holding a new MF or SSD and are dreaming of 1000+ selling prices on it, but this is, again IMHO, just wishful thinking. If anytime that happens, I won't have a problem saying "congrats, well done for you", but then again, as everything else, it's just risk/benefit ratio...

Not true.  Not even close.

[dcdfan]

Not true.  Not even close.

agree 100%...