10188 - UCS: Death Star

[redghostx]

I guess it will go out of stock here also (canada), but I can't imagine that lego would let the DS run out ahead of the movie, so i expect a full restock before the movie. Of course alot of factors could change this, like a NEW DS model just ahead of the movie. 

 

You're absolutely right that Lego would never let this end before the new movie arrives just like Lego would never allow the Haunted House to sell out before Halloween 2014... Oh wait. They did exactly that!

Some people were speculating the same about the SSD last year and resorted to F5 magic to get any last stragglers. If you want a DS, get it now, just in case.

Edited July 17, 2015 by redghostx

[gregpj]

I guess it will go out of stock here also (canada), but I can't imagine that lego would let the DS run out ahead of the movie, so i expect a full restock before the movie. Of course alot of factors could change this, like a NEW DS model just ahead of the movie. 

 

What is a "full restock"? A full production run could be 250 units or 10000 units. These sets are massive and are one per factory carton .. it's unlikely LEGO will product thousands upon thousands at a time. Even if it were as large as 10,000 units, spread across the world that's not a whole lot to go around when you consider how many places do sell it.

There was 9 months between the old MF and the new MF (availability at retail) - I think slightly more for the X-Wing. If LEGO is intending to release a new DS, it's not in their best interest to release them weeks apart. New movie due in 5 months... doesn't leave a lot of time to clear old stock of a typical set. I know this set isn't typical but highly doubt LEGO is going to adjust production runs and business workflow for a single set. They are more likely to treat all products the same.

Edited July 17, 2015 by gregpj

[gbg108]

I don't think Lego is executing any Machiavellian plans to manipulate resellers / investors.  They are too busy engaged in their business, trying to increase the desirability of their product for more and more consumers around the world.  That's what makes a global company more profit... when you can get everyone to need your product they way they need, say, water... that's the way you make more profit.  Playing some short term game to milk resellers for an extra million or two is short-sighted, and I think they're smart enough to know that.

In fact, I might propose that having the DS retire this summer (either now, or after one more batch hits the market and sells out quickly), might make them a LOT more money than the plan you suggest.  As the new movie hype ramps up prior to Christmas, moms and dads might notice the recent disappearance of 10188, see the $500 - $600 price tag on Amazon and ebay... used prices at $300 or $400... and say, "Wow. Look at all the crap toys I bought my kid last year that are worthless now.  Even used Legos are worth good money... I'm buying more Lego for Christmas this year.  In fact... maybe I'll get 2 each of the new Star Wars sets and save one in the attic."  If Lego could get a new "10179 story" out of the DS, many more resellers would be created, many more moms and dads would feel better about buying Lego... it would be a great thing for TLG.

To be clear, I don't believe TLG would milk EOL out of malice or contempt for resellers. More likely it would accomplish two goals:

1) Lots of profit at EOL. Sales that you would have received over the next year, you get them upfront. 

2) More importantly, feed the secondary market so there is plenty of stock and Lego fans around the world will be able to continue buying the set near MSRP for at least a couple years. After all if you flood the reseller market, many who by on credit will need to flip those sets within a year or two and with all the competition the price will stay lower.

So I see nothing Machiavellian about it, just making money while letting the resellers take on inventory cost and the risk while TLG moves on to a new product.  All the while keeping post retirement prices closer to MSRP for a little longer. Win-win for TLG and their end customers if you ask me.

Also I think everything you said in your second paragraph will happen either way. As long as Lego remains popular the price of these sets will inevitably rise because there is no new supply. It may just start taking longer than it has in the past.

[redcell]

You're absolutely right that Lego would never let this end before the new movie arrives just like Lego would never allow the Haunted House to sell out before Halloween 2014... Oh wait. They did exactly that!

Some people were speculating the same about the SSD last year and resorted to F5 magic to get any last stragglers. If you want a DS, get it now, just in case.

People here have a bad habit of analyzing everything from their own perspective and experience, and, as a result, come up with all sorts of scenarios of what is going to happen that are completely divorced from the reality of corporate decision making, production schedules, and distribution networks that you're dealing with when you're a company as large as TLG.    

[Guest ph4tb0i]

People here have a bad habit of analyzing everything from their own perspective and experience, and, as a result, come up with all sorts of scenarios of what is going to happen that are completely divorced from the reality of corporate decision making, production schedules, and distribution networks that you're dealing with when you're a company as large as TLG.    

I wonder if it's deliberate sometimes though to discourage lurkers from pouring in as well.  

 

[gbg108]

People here have a bad habit of analyzing everything from their own perspective and experience, and, as a result, come up with all sorts of scenarios of what is going to happen that are completely divorced from the reality of corporate decision making, production schedules, and distribution networks that you're dealing with when you're a company as large as TLG.    

This is a very good point. It's easy to forget that TLG is a huge company and most large companies aren't making decisions at these micro levels.

But there's so much time time between buying and selling...if we don't speculate about the market what do we talk about?

[dcdfan]

It's so silly that people believe Lego is conducting business to mess with resellers...They're running a business. They didn't become number one concentrating on the minutia...

[emonster]

Well... any company that is as successful as Lego, has to concentrate on the "minutia". At close to 12,000 employees, I'm pretty sure there are hundreds of people looking at details while there are are also dozens looking at the large picture.

[jerryherb]

to be fair, this site is all about speculation so lets speculate. all conspiracy theories and rebuttals welcome. its fun to see people getting way too serious and stock of major retailers wiped out in minutes on a slightest whiff of BS.

[Brian Briggs]

To be clear, I don't believe TLG would milk EOL out of malice or contempt for resellers. More likely it would accomplish two goals:

1) Lots of profit at EOL. Sales that you would have received over the next year, you get them upfront. 

2) More importantly, feed the secondary market so there is plenty of stock and Lego fans around the world will be able to continue buying the set near MSRP for at least a couple years. After all if you flood the reseller market, many who by on credit will need to flip those sets within a year or two and with all the competition the price will stay lower.

So I see nothing Machiavellian about it, just making money while letting the resellers take on inventory cost and the risk while TLG moves on to a new product.  All the while keeping post retirement prices closer to MSRP for a little longer. Win-win for TLG and their end customers if you ask me.

Also I think everything you said in your second paragraph will happen either way. As long as Lego remains popular the price of these sets will inevitably rise because there is no new supply. It may just start taking longer than it has in the past.

Concerning the part I put in bold text:

It's only the end-consumer who hesitated to buy the DS for 7 years who profits. Those who already have bought their DS have nothing to gain from a set which has its value stay close to RRP for years after EOL. Also, it's not like someone who will be willing to part with his money to purchase a DS in the future won't have other choices available to him from then current Lego sets.

[Sauromosis]

Concerning the part I put in bold text:

It's only the end-consumer who hesitated to buy the DS for 7 years who profits. Those who already have bought their DS have nothing to gain from a set which has its value stay close to RRP for years after EOL. Also, it's not like someone who will be willing to part with his money to purchase a DS in the future won't have other choices available to him from then current Lego sets.

Go check the prices for this item on ebay and amazon after just a hint of retirement.

[dcdfan]

Go check the prices for this item on ebay and amazon after just a hint of retirement.

very interesting indeed...

[mudcatsfan]

Go check the prices for this item on ebay and amazon after just a hint of retirement.

The shipping cost being hidden on non-prime 3rd party sellers is making the set appear cheaper than it really is. If you don't click through you think its available for 499.99, but it's really $560 and up already.

[Ed Mack]

I guess it will go out of stock here also (canada), but I can't imagine that lego would let the DS run out ahead of the movie, so i expect a full restock before the movie. Of course alot of factors could change this, like a NEW DS model just ahead of the movie. 

 

Just like the 10225 UCS R2-D2 I suppose...

[gbg108]

I guess it will go out of stock here also (canada), but I can't imagine that lego would let the DS run out ahead of the movie, so i expect a full restock before the movie. Of course alot of factors could change this, like a NEW DS model just ahead of the movie. 

 

If Lego is planning a "better" DS I absolutely think they will retire 10188 before the movie.

Obviously die-hards know all about 10188, most already own one. But if I'm a casual fan who just got back into Starwars after seeing the movie and I see 10188 on the shelf at my lego store...I'm thinking "wow, that's a ton of money. It's got outdated figures, but I love Starwars and I have to have a DS!". Now a month or two later they retire 10188 and come out with a better version with updated figures, ect. The casual fan that was on the fence but decided to drop $400 on 10188 feels cheated...he would have bought the better version. 

You can't sell high ticket items on hype and then quickly replace said high ticket item with a "better" version. So IMO if there is a new DS coming shortly after the new movie then 10188s days are numbered for sure. There may be small restocks but it won't be anywhere to be found when the movie comes out.

[pickleboy]

SHouldnt the poll just say "26+" rather than "26-50+"    

[GhostDad]

Just like the 10225 UCS R2-D2 I suppose...

I can take a hint.  15 x #10225 going up on eBay right now as a bulk lot.  I know one reseller who isn't going to get caught with his sets down when the new, improved UCS R2 rerelease comes out this Fall...

[Sandwraith]

Poofed from Walmart.ca, now not available online anywhere in Canada (to my knowledge). Surprised this one went so fast. Haven't seen anything poof that fast in Canada since the HH.

[Brian Briggs]

Go check the prices for this item on ebay and amazon after just a hint of retirement.

I don't see the connection between your statement and my response regarding a hypothetical situation where the price would stay flat after EOL because TLG would be able to shift a lot of units to stock the secondary market. My post was written poorly I guess.

It should have read more like this I guess:

"Concerning the part I put in bold text:

It's only the end-consumer who hesitated to buy the DS for 7 years who would profit in this case. Those who already would have bought their DS would have nothing to gain from a set which would have its value stay close to RRP for years after EOL. Also, it's not like someone who would be willing to part with his money to purchase a DS in the future wouldn't have other choices available to him from then current Lego sets."

 

Edited July 17, 2015 by Brian Briggs
Poorly written post

[Ed Mack]

I can take a hint.  15 x #10225 going up on eBay right now as a bulk lot.  I know one reseller who isn't going to get caught with his sets down when the new, improved UCS R2 rerelease comes out this Fall...

Yeah, the remote controlled Power Functions one with lights and sound bricks.

[GhostDad]

Yeah, the remote controlled Power Functions one with lights and sound bricks.

You jest (I hope), but that is what Lego should have done with 10225 in the first place.

[Ed Mack]

You jest (I hope), but that is what Lego should have done with 10225 in the first place.

Depends...Do you want me to give Trek a heart attack?  LOL

[33Lego]

so there is a new UCS R2D2 with PF and light bricks?

 

What's the MSRP, $500?

[trekgate502]

I can take a hint.  15 x #10225 going up on eBay right now as a bulk lot.  I know one reseller who isn't going to get caught with his sets down when the new, improved UCS R2 rerelease comes out this Fall...

I could say something but I won't. LOL.

Depends...Do you want me to give Trek a heart attack?  LOL

Coronary procedures underway. ROFL.

[GhostDad]

so there is a new UCS R2D2 with PF and light bricks?

 

What's the MSRP, $500?

That was my point a few months ago when the 'new improved DS rerelease' scare was in full effect.  I mean, a DS with a fully operational planet-destroying death ray (and if it doesn't have one, why remake the DS at all?) would have to retail for at least $1000.  Plus it would only be legal in Texas.