10188 - UCS: Death Star

[Val-E]

Yup, supply pretty much limited to a few B+M toyshops here too.

[glucapg]

LEGO Shop at Home EU sold 44 Death Stars in the last 24 hours. 284 to go.

And it's sold out @ amazon and Galeria Kaufhof, another major German retailer. The only major retailer that still has it "available now" is TRU (limit: 1).

Where have you seen the 10188 stock at LEGO Shop at Home? Thanks

[TigerG]

It has been sold out on Amazon Germany for weeks if not months - only been available from secondary retailers on there since it went out of stock on LEGO Shop at Home in May.

[TheGallows]

Just ordered my first from eu shop at home and will prob order one more next week.

Expensive month for me, 10 red5's, 3 AT_AT's, 3 ISD and 3 SS

Just hope EV doesn't go too soon or I'm buggered.

[Kenxxx]

I think it's a nobrainer if you want one for your personal collection to buy one now.  You more than likely won't get a set mint in a box at RRP again once they go.

Where i'd be hesitant is spending a lot of funds investing in them.  ... hype the hype train on all things exclusives, but a simple review of sales data on this site shows that many of these don't sell that quickly at those higher prices, and when people are sitting on 50 of them it's going to take them a WHILE to move them.  When you have hundreds of people sitting on more than 30 or more of these, and then 1000's of people sitting on 2 to 5 of them, it's going to be a very competitive waiting game, which you have to commit to if you are going to play. 

The SSD for example moves about 40 to 50 units a month on ebay.  That's about 480 a year that will sell on ebay at the MSRP value, which goes from 700 to 750 currently.  Selling one of these will net you anywhere from 150 to 250 over the 399.99 retail (depending on your buy-in) once you include selling/shipping fees.  ...Anyone that runs out and buys 10 of these on credit is playing a dangerous game that is probably not worth it.  Paying in cash.. then go for it, but realize your money is going to be tied up for a while..  It's not as pie in the sky as some claim.  ...

I think this is great advice.  Mudcatsfan also put out some good points that same day regarding sell price vs. take home profit.  I love the Death Star. It launched a few weeks before my son was born.  He got one for Christmas when he was five, and that will probably live in our memories as the most magical Christmas ever.  The little guy built it at least ten hours per day for five days in a row. And of course, for all the right "investor reasons" I love this set even more. But I only have 2 in my inventory.  Could have gotten ten more in the last couple days, but decided against it.  I would pretty much have had to get these at $427 (with tax). If I can sell one for $550 on ebay (or $565 on Amazon)... with fees, shipping and insurance, I might make $10 if I'm lucky.  Price will have to hit $635 on ebay before I can even make 20%.

And with so many of these being stored for so many years (and so many sold in the past week)... I just think it is going to be a long, long term investment. I hope I'm wrong.  I hope it goes to $1000 by this time next year, and I'll be kicking myself.  But just want to repeat (to the newer investors) some of the good advice I've seen here on this site... If you're thinking about "going all in" on the DS... think carefully about your rate of return, and your time horizon.

[gregpj]

I think it's a nobrainer if you want one for your personal collection to buy one now.  You more than likely won't get a set mint in a box at RRP again once they go.

Where i'd be hesitant is spending a lot of funds investing in them.  Yeah, some love to hype the hype train on all things exclusives, but a simple review of sales data on this site shows that many of these don't sell that quickly at those higher prices, and when people are sitting on 50 of them it's going to take them a WHILE to move them.  When you have hundreds of people sitting on more than 30 or more of these, and then 1000's of people sitting on 2 to 5 of them, it's going to be a very competitive waiting game, which you have to commit to if you are going to play. 

The SSD for example moves about 40 to 50 units a month on ebay.  That's about 480 a year that will sell on ebay at the MSRP value, which goes from 700 to 750 currently.  Selling one of these will net you anywhere from 150 to 250 over the 399.99 retail (depending on your buy-in) once you include selling/shipping fees.  HOWEVER, if you bought this on credit at a interest rate of 10.9 or so (like many might do) and was sitting on it for 18 months, paying about 50 a month on it, that eats away about 70.00 of those profits in interest on just one set during that 18 month interval.  So be cautious.  Anyone that runs out and buys 10 of these on credit is playing a dangerous game that is probably not worth it.  Paying in cash.. then go for it, but realize your money is going to be tied up for a while..  It's not as pie in the sky as some claim.  If you are impatient, then don't let your impulses control you. 

I missed this post but would like to "debate" a couple things... Don't forget that many people here sell on Amazon and Bricklink too. We don't know what rate things truly move there but they are a big fish for moving secondary market items. I also have had decent success selling some of these exclusives/higher priced items locally. There are a few savvy buyers who know to look local to save on shipping and other hassle.

So let's say we conservatively say that the potential for sales is probably closer to 3x what eBay alone sells - that comes in at 1440 units. We also haven't hit the peak of the Star Wars frenzy - what could that do to sales?

Also, my highest interest "loan" right now is 5% on a car. I have a line of credit at less than 4%. If people are paying 10.9%, I think they're doing it wrong. I agree with you that cash is king, but if you have low interest rates on other debts, it's not too hard to beat them with some LEGO investments. I sold some 10212 shuttles I bought right after retirement for about a 15% yearly return (I don't know what the right term is... I held for 2 years, sold for 30% more than I paid). That easily beat all my other loans even after taxes and all that. (and yes I know I sold too early, but they were to a couple friends so I didn't mind)

I agree with you it's not all pie in the sky, but it's not all doom and gloom either.

[longshot]

Quick question, I visited my local LEGO store and picked up a DS yesterday. I had the clerk open the factory box so I could inspect the box inside. 3 boxes later I found one that was minty. All the others the exterior box was perfect with no dents or obvious signs that the contents would be damaged. So my question is as both a collector and investor....... Does opening the factory box effect value when you go to resell and if you don't and the buyer opens it to find its damaged could that ruin your reputation of selling what you believed to be a pristine set?

Thanx guys

[dcdfan]

Quick question, I visited my local LEGO store and picked up a DS yesterday. I had the clerk open the factory box so I could inspect the box inside. 3 boxes later I found one that was minty. All the others the exterior box was perfect with no dents or obvious signs that the contents would be damaged. So my question is as both a collector and investor....... Does opening the factory box effect value when you go to resell and if you don't and the buyer opens it to find its damaged could that ruin your reputation of selling what you believed to be a pristine set?

Thanx guys

It absolutely affects the selling price, just check eBay...

[hepcatpunk]

Are you referring to the outer shipping box (the brown cardboard one), or the actual product box (the red and black one)?  Opening the outer shipping box shouldn't have any effect.  Busting the seals on the actual product box could,  and likely would, have an effect.

[gbg108]

Pretty sure he means the shipping box. It's a qood question I hadn't considered. I'm curious what other more experienced sellers say as well.

Seems like having it sealed in the shipping box might be interesting to some buyers as it'd be more rare but also probably easier to get scammed that way. Personally, if I was buying 3rd party I would want to see the box art and seals to make sure I'm getting what I'm paying for. 

 

[dcdfan]

Are you referring to the outer shipping box (the brown cardboard one), or the actual product box (the red and black one)?  Opening the outer shipping box shouldn't have any effect.  Busting the seals on the actual product box could,  and likely would, have an effect.

I was referring to the product box but if you search for example 10179 still sealed in the outer shipping box does seem to command more money...

[longshot]

Yes, I mean the brown shipping box. Im a collector as well as a novice investor and know better then to break the seals on something I intend for re-sale. I tend to be very picky on the box condition and unfortunately have missed out on a few sets because I couldn't find a box without any damage. When reselling how important is the box condition? Now Im not talking about major creases or dents but more of the occasional rub or scratch, maybe small dings in the packaging face etc.

Thanx

[dcdfan]

Pretty sure he means the shipping box. It's a qood question I hadn't considered. I'm curious what other more experienced sellers say as well.

Seems like having it sealed in the shipping box might be interesting to some buyers as it'd be more rare but also probably easier to get scammed that way. Personally, if I was buying 3rd party I would want to see the box art and seals to make sure I'm getting what I'm paying for. 

 

I agree with this. If you have tons of money, you probably haven't opened the outer boxes. I have opened the outer boxes...

[fossilrock]

I missed this post but would like to "debate" a couple things... Don't forget that many people here sell on Amazon and Bricklink too. We don't know what rate things truly move there but they are a big fish for moving secondary market items. I also have had decent success selling some of these exclusives/higher priced items locally. There are a few savvy buyers who know to look local to save on shipping and other hassle.

So let's say we conservatively say that the potential for sales is probably closer to 3x what eBay alone sells - that comes in at 1440 units. We also haven't hit the peak of the Star Wars frenzy - what could that do to sales?

Also, my highest interest "loan" right now is 5% on a car. I have a line of credit at less than 4%. If people are paying 10.9%, I think they're doing it wrong. I agree with you that cash is king, but if you have low interest rates on other debts, it's not too hard to beat them with some LEGO investments. I sold some 10212 shuttles I bought right after retirement for about a 15% yearly return (I don't know what the right term is... I held for 2 years, sold for 30% more than I paid). That easily beat all my other loans even after taxes and all that. (and yes I know I sold too early, but they were to a couple friends so I didn't mind)

I agree with you it's not all pie in the sky, but it's not all doom and gloom either.

I'm just going by statistics.  I have seen where the average interest rate for consumers in the States is around 15%.  The lower end is around 11%. I think a good % of people use personal credit cards when they invest instead of using cash, and that's tough to really know for sure but it seems like that is the case here.  Granted, there are quite a few here that seem to be vested into a reselling business, and use lines of credit that they use for the business of reselling, and so yes that is common too. 

I'm not a big fish, by any means and only buy about 5 to 10 sets a month, and my wife and I budget it in our paychecks.  About 2 to 3 of those sets are personal and go to my son and I to build.  We only have about 200 investment sets spread over many themes and sets, and roughly 70% of those sets are retired.  So, i'm not a big time fish, and have no plans to be.   But from my experience while there's definitely money to be made in the collectibles and toy market, it's not always as easy money as some here promote.  I know of no full time resellers in my town, unless you want to include the comic book/hobby shop guy.  At best, and to most of us this is a hobby, and a subsidiary investment strategy to make some side cash.

Regardless, just on this thread, we could probably go back through and add up about 100 death stars that went by a handful of posters over a few days time strictly for investment purposes.  This site represents probably a small subset of people that did the same thing around the planet over the last few days..  So there were more than likely a few thousand death stars that moved over the last few days.  Those thousands will take a while to move in the reseller market.

I truly believe ebay beats amazon and bricklink in the amount of sales that move in the reseller after market, because the prices tend to be slightly cheaper on ebay.  Many times you will see sets sitting on amazon for about 20% higher than what people are buying on ebay and they can sit there for a WHILE.  So, I think it's safe to assume ebay is where most sets are sold.  Ebay also gives a pretty good insight into what is moving, the sales rate, and at the price point people are willing to pay for it.  Amazon and craigslist and bricklink don't provide that data, but all 3 of those sites combined more than likely dont have ebay's sales numbers, but yes they do count and should factor in to the total, but i'd say that number would be double, and not 3x.  So, with that said, it's going to take a long time to move those death stars (many years actually).  Statistics on this very site show that these higher end exclusives going at prime rates don't sell as quickly as the "easy money" mentality that festers here  tends to promote.  Many times these higher end exclusives only move about 20 to 30 a month.  So, as time moves on, and more and more people hoard them, the investment curve on exclusives is going to take much longer to pan out.  It's going to get interesting, in my opinion when you consider the amount of MIB sets that are being held for reselling.  Everyone makes it seem like they are in the black, when a majority are probably in the red when they truly weigh their spending vs sales rate data. To rookies that come on this site, they should definitely consider and weigh this information before buying into the hype.  And yes, selling 1 SSD today will basically pay for 2 that you might have bought.  But if you are sitting on 10 to 20 of them, you are technically still in the red, instead of the black and if it takes 5 years to move those 20, maybe dumping that money in a 401k would have been a better choice, but just not as fun..  These are things to definitely weigh, before one throws 8 DS's in a cart and hits the buy button, because just remember, you aren't the only one doing it with the same goal in mind.

Yes, i just played the devils advocate, and leave no apologies or regrets.

[tonysbricks]

I am behind 200 posts. Can someone post the cliff notes version since this thing started going OOS?

[Darth_Raichu]

I am behind 200 posts. Can someone post the cliff notes version since this thing started going OOS?

[ISO8T0]

sure.

• It's sold out.
• If you don't own one you'll have to spend 10%-15% over msrp.
• Since newer investors are dealing with veteran investors who have been stock piling for past 8 yrs roi will be longer for new investors ($280 buy in vs $399 etc)
• oh and what Darth_Raichu said.

feel free add to list anyone.

[legoray01]

Got my second one from Target today.  As I feared - box damage.  Enough to go through the shipping box and put a hole in the main box right where the death ray shoots out of the saucer.  Dam'n.  Oh, well - even with a damaged box I have one pristine box and one damaged.  All seals look in act so I guess I am just going to live with it.  I am a box snob today but this is one case where box snobbery will have take a back seat to ownership. 

[lawnboy1001]

 

• Since newer investors are dealing with veteran investors who have been stock piling for past 8 yrs roi will be longer for new investors ($280 buy in vs $399 etc)

I would argue the opposite in most cases due to time value of money and storage space.  Take a veteran who purchased at $280 about 5 years ago, he would only be better off if his required rate of return is less than about 8%.  However, that isn't to say that people with a buy in price of $280 only 1 or 2 years ago aren't in a better position than new investors.

[ISO8T0]

I would argue the opposite in most cases due to time value of money and storage space.  Take a veteran who purchased at $280 about 5 years ago, he would only be better off if his required rate of return is less than about 8%.  However, that isn't to say that people with a buy in price of $280 only 1 or 2 years ago aren't in a better position than new investors.

True. If someone was having to pay for a storage unit to store their investments then that would affect their ROI long term.

My point which was far too Cliff noted, was to compare the buy ins of newer investors vs older investors and the time in which it would take to achieve similar profits.

[tonysbricks]

Also keep in mind inflation is ~10% over the last 7 years. If you paid $400 7 years ago you actually paid $440 today.

[trekgate502]

I am not worried.

Carry on.

[nolanfan34]

I'm saving my one extra to trade later on Brick Classifieds. :-)

[Ciglione]

Some people want to make things more complicated than it already is. Stop talking this high-level finance BS.

All I know is that in Europe banks are starting to charge you holding fees and negative interest for money you put on your account. That is a serious reason for me to invest in plastic bricks. Stop about inflation. Cause most investments we have till now have been inflation proof. Some even out-perform inflation. If you would say that all sets with the same piece count are exactly the same you would be right. But we do not put a value on a legoset due to its weight of plastic. It is the scarcity, design, and license that puts in a bigger factor. I am happy with my DS's which I bought at a very nice discount. Even if I bought them 1 year ago. So less money is stuck in them.

If you needed to rent a storage space and pay for it. Please do you accounting. But for me that is too ambitious. I use the space I have. The space I pay for no matter if and how I use it. Another factor for me is HOBBY. A hobby that makes me money. Nothing more nothing less.  

Edited July 16, 2015 by Ciglione

[redcell]

I'm just going by statistics.  I have seen where the average interest rate for consumers in the States is around 15%.  The lower end is around 11%. I think a good % of people use personal credit cards when they invest instead of using cash, and that's tough to really know for sure but it seems like that is the case here.  Granted, there are quite a few here that seem to be vested into a reselling business, and use lines of credit that they use for the business of reselling, and so yes that is common too. 
 

If you're organized about your debt, you can easily get financing for an annual interest rate of between 2% - 6.5%.