10247 - Ferris Wheel

[bricketycricket]

Yeah I don't envision the build being particularly amazing, but the display value will make up for that.

For those who are more familiar with power functions than I, is it necessary to use a battery box to power something like this? Or is there an AC adapter for the motor? I don't really want to constantly waste batteries on something like this.

[jaisonline]

just like i thought with the fairgrounds mixer, i just wish lego would include soundbricks with these carnival sets.

[fuzzy_bricks]

Yeah I don't envision the build being particularly amazing, but the display value will make up for that.

For those who are more familiar with power functions than I, is it necessary to use a battery box to power something like this? Or is there an AC adapter for the motor? I don't really want to constantly waste batteries on something like this.

​There is a rechargeable battery box, it runs about $50.  If you're handy you could wire it up to an AC adapter.

http://shop.lego.com/en-US/LEGO-Power-Functions-Rechargeable-Battery-Box-8878

[jaisonline]

with PF, you need to use the battery box.  it isn't like 9v train tracks...

i've been using the PF battery box with my 41999 and it's surprisingly good with battery life.  just buy rechargeable AAs.

Yeah I don't envision the build being particularly amazing, but the display value will make up for that.

For those who are more familiar with power functions than I, is it necessary to use a battery box to power something like this? Or is there an AC adapter for the motor? I don't really want to constantly waste batteries on something like this.

​

[DenJ91]

Ok my initial feelings just by looking at the Ad picture was not great, but after watching the designer video, I'm LOVING this set!!! Clear winner here.  $200 price point is much better too. 

[Ed Mack]

 

​

​I'm just not seeing the same value. It's got the same number of pieces as the PR and is $40 more expensive. The minifigs are quite generic, and apart from the new head, could be put together from BL for very little. Those new trans clear hinges aren't going to be in great demand, similar trans clear hinges sell on BL for peanuts, even ones that are relatively rare. It's a non-licensed set too. It's not a bad price, but it's no steal.

I just can't see 99% of AFOLS being into this years down the line, unless I'm the 1%. Not every adult is into carnivals. Not this side of the pond anyway. Also, having built 4957 Ferris Wheel a while back, I can tell you this is gonna be one seriously repetitive build. 8 supporting struts, 24 spokes, 2 rims made up of 48 of the same little sections, 12 gondolas... zzzzzz.

I'm just playing devil's advocate here and sharing my thoughts on it. If people like it that's great, but it's not for me. Even leaving rarity aside, it doesn't have the wow factor of the GC at all. I think I'd be lucky to double my money on these after 2 years post EOL, which wouldn't be bad, but there's better investments out there for me. Used prices will keep NISB prices modest too I think. I don't think it will be a costly set to bricklink once it retires, as there's lots of multiples of the same pieces in there. I can also see it being heavily hoarded by less savvy investors hoping for GC type returns. I hope I'm wrong, because I love sets that make me money.

I agree with a lot of your points.  The question I have is how much will an AFOL pay for this in the future?  It is a rather basic design, even some could argue childish.  It is a fair value and cute and creative, but will the AFOLs of the world shell out big dollars for a set that is not in the same league as the Grand Carousel, Taj, Mahal, Eiffel Tower, any Modular or UCS STAR WARS set?  

Edited April 30, 2015 by Ed Mack

[Darth_Raichu]

just like i thought with the fairgrounds mixer, i just wish lego would include soundbricks with these carnival sets.

​How about a smell brick ? One push and it releases the smell of kettle corn and cotton candy, with a hint of hays and goats  

[jaisonline]

​How about a smell brick ? One push and it releases the smell of kettle corn and cotton candy, with a hint of hays and goats  

​

actually, great idea.  maybe add some air freshener elements or even scratch and smell stickers

 

i do wish it had lights...  well, we can add them since it uses PFs

[tractorboy]

I agree with a lot of your points.  The question I have is how much will an AFOL pay for this in the future?  It is a rather basic design, even some could argue childish.  It is a fair value and cute and creative, but will the AFOLs of the world shell out big dollars for a set that is not in the same league as the Grand Carousel, Taj, Mahal, Eiffel Tower, any Modular or UCS STAR WARS set?  

​That's what I would be thinking too. It may not be a spectacular winner, and there will probably still be money to be made if Lego doesn't give it a long production life.

But looking at the real big winners in recent times...they all have one of two things in common.

1. They exist outside of the Lego universe (so a licensed theme/model or a real world building).

2. Rarity.

I can't think of any big winners which don't have at least one of those factors. This set has neither. Unless Lego gives it a short run and it catches investors out (like the TH), but I'd say that's unlikely as I'm sure it will sell quite well.

[mauro23]

​That's what I would be thinking too. It may not be a spectacular winner, and there will probably still be money to be made if Lego doesn't give it a long production life.

But looking at the real big winners in recent times...they all have one of two things in common.

1. They exist outside of the Lego universe (so a licensed theme/model or a real world building).

2. Rarity.

I can't think of any big winners which don't have at least one of those factors. This set has neither. Unless Lego gives it a short run and it catches investors out (like the TH), but I'd say that's unlikely as I'm sure it will sell quite well.

This would mean end of good investments for nearly every set...

And I disagree, HH has also no one of these factors...

Edited April 30, 2015 by mauro23

[diablo2112]

​That's what I would be thinking too. It may not be a spectacular winner, and there will probably still be money to be made if Lego doesn't give it a long production life.

But looking at the real big winners in recent times...they all have one of two things in common.

1. They exist outside of the Lego universe (so a licensed theme/model or a real world building).

2. Rarity.

I can't think of any big winners which don't have at least one of those factors. This set has neither. Unless Lego gives it a short run and it catches investors out (like the TH), but I'd say that's unlikely as I'm sure it will sell quite well.

​The 3 biggest winners of the sets to go EOL in the last 12 months have been GE, HH, and TH.  After this, you have Mixels (and before you SSD me, that set hasn't doubled in value; all the previous one have. Only TH arguably meets the "rarity" criteria, but certainly not "rarity" by CC or GG standards, and GE and HH violate both your rules, as most certainly do Mixel Series 1, they were everywhere and wholly invented inside the Lego Universe.  I think there's a completely different dynamic, and that's collectability, set design, and perceived appeal.   If a design is particularly appealing or good + that set is part of a collected series or theme, that's the recipe for doing "quite well" IMHO.  Exhibit A: Modulars.  Or, to be a bit more broad, basically any Lego exclusive.

Edited April 30, 2015 by diablo2112

[tractorboy]

This would mean end of good investments for nearly every set...

​Sets that don't have either of those things have never been big winners. The modulars would be the closest, as they're part of a collectable theme. But it's the rare modulars that do really well. There will still be plenty of investment opportunities in licensed sets and models of real world buildings or landmarks IMHO.

[LegoEdison]

now we need to define what is consider winner .... LOL

i like this set and i think double the value 1 year after EOL is winner. 

[mattyman]

​The 3 biggest winners of the sets to go EOL in the last 12 months have been GE, HH, and TH.  (and before you SSD me, that set hasn't doubled in value; all the previous one have; well, Mixels 1 I suppose...). Only TH arguably meets the "rarity" criteria, but certainly not "rarity" by CC or GG standards, and GE and HH violate both your rules.  I think there's a completely different dynamic, and that's collectability, set design, and perceived appeal to AFOL.   If a design is particularly appealing or good + that set is part of a collected series or theme, that's the recipe for doing "quite well" IMHO.  Exhibit A: Modulars.  Or, to be a bit more broad, basically any Lego exclusive.

Agree. Ferris wheels do exist in a world outside Lego. They are basic by design in their nature. There are far worse designed Ferris wheels in the real world. It is a classic fairground ride and can see the appeal to all. I can't see how else they could improve it to be fair. 

[diablo2112]

​Sets that don't have either of those things have never been big winners. The modulars would be the closest, as they're part of a collectable theme. But it's the rare modulars that do really well. There will still be plenty of investment opportunities in licensed sets and models of real world buildings or landmarks IMHO.

​I don't see this, not at all.  I can think of TONS of sets that have done spectacularly well that were both common and inside the Lego universe.  examples: recent Technic flagships, nearly any train, every single modular that's gone EOL, Mixels, series minifigs, Haunted House, etc.

[tractorboy]

now we need to define what is consider winner .... LOL

i like this set and i think double the value 1 year after EOL is winner. 

​Yeah me too. I'll take that all day long. But there's winners and there's 'big' winners lol. Maybe the era of really big winners is just over for now.

I think maybe 2 years post EOL for double RRP on this one. I guess it will depend on the length of the production run and the level of hoarding.

[Val-E]

As I mentioned before, I think we need to give the theme time to develop and see where they take it from here. Right now, the collectibility element is missing but we could have said that about the first winter set too. When there is a full funfair (dodgems, rolller coaster) it will be a lot clearer.

[diablo2112]

​Yeah me too. I'll take that all day long. But there's winners and there's 'big' winners lol. Maybe the era of really big winners is just over for now.

I think maybe 2 years post EOL for double RRP on this one. I guess it will depend on the length of the production run and the level of hoarding.

​We're not predicting blind with Ferris Wheel post EOL.  We have recent data on large exclusives that are well hoarded.  GE doubled in value roughly 7 months after EOL; HH doubled in value almost immediately, call it 2 month.  TH - priced higher at $200, and hence a poor seller - went early, and has tripled in value after 6 month.   All of these were in the hoarders sights in the modern "well invested" era.   Given all this, I would place a very good bet that FW easily doubles in the first year post EOL, probably sooner.  Assuming it doesn't pull a TB/DS lifetime.

Edited April 30, 2015 by diablo2112

[tractorboy]

​The 3 biggest winners of the sets to go EOL in the last 12 months have been GE, HH, and TH.  After this, you have Mixels (and before you SSD me, that set hasn't doubled in value; all the previous one have. Only TH arguably meets the "rarity" criteria, but certainly not "rarity" by CC or GG standards, and GE and HH violate both your rules, as most certainly do Mixel Series 1, they were everywhere and wholly invented inside the Lego Universe.  I think there's a completely different dynamic, and that's collectability, set design, and perceived appeal.   If a design is particularly appealing or good + that set is part of a collected series or theme, that's the recipe for doing "quite well" IMHO.  Exhibit A: Modulars.  Or, to be a bit more broad, basically any Lego exclusive.

​GE hasn't even hit double RRP in Europe yet. TH is rare, like you say. HH is a good shout though, maybe an exception to the rule.

I agree about set design too. And being part of a collectable theme helps.

[Quacs]

The two best investment aspects of this set are its size and that it appears to be the second installment of a new carnival subtheme.  I think when people start to see this set built at Lego Stores, they are going to be pleasantly surprised and enticed by the sheer size of it.  Many of the complaints I am hearing now are the same that were voiced when the Sea Cow was first announced.  Then people started seeing its size in real life and many changed their tunes.  I would urge everyone to withhold judgment until it's seen in person.

[tractorboy]

​I don't see this, not at all.  I can think of TONS of sets that have done spectacularly well that were both common and inside the Lego universe.  examples: recent Technic flagships, nearly any train, every single modular that's gone EOL, Mixels, series minifigs, Haunted House, etc.

​Spectacularly well? Ed mentioned sets like the Taj, GC, Eiffel Tower, big UCS SW sets. That's the level I was getting at. Sure there have been sets that have made good money, like the modulars. But only the rare ones have brought really big gains on that level. Yes, things like the flagship Technic sets and some trains do well, but we're not talking $1000 here. What's been the biggest winner in trains? Emerald Night, a rare set and based on a real train. And that can be had for around €380.

Edited April 30, 2015 by tractorboy

[diablo2112]

​Spectacularly well? Ed mentioned sets like the Taj, GC, Eiffel Tower, big UCS SW sets. That's the level I was getting at. Sure there have been sets that have made good money, like the modulars. But only the rare ones have brought really big gains on that level. Yes, things like the flagship Technic sets and some trains do well, but we're not talking $1000 here. What's been the biggest winner in trains? Emerald Night, a rare set and based on a real train.

​I agree with you, none of these sets have done MF/Taj/GC spectacular.  And none of them will.  That was a different era.  We're in the investor/hoarder age of Lego now.  I'll be happy with 2x to 3x returns on well-selected sets.  That's the game today, which sets will bring those returns.   With the singular exception of TH and its unusual situation, the day that exclusives reach 5x RRP is over.   And given this, FW is an excellent new addition.  It has all the hallmarks of being another very-good 3x set 18 months post EOL.

[Ed Mack]

​Spectacularly well? Ed mentioned sets like the Taj, GC, Eiffel Tower, big UCS SW sets. That's the level I was getting at. Sure there have been sets that have made good money, like the modulars. But only the rare ones have brought really big gains on that level. Yes, things like the flagship Technic sets and some trains do well, but we're not talking $1000 here. What's been the biggest winner in trains? Emerald Night, a rare set and based on a real train.

​The only reason I mentioned the larger Creator and Advanced Model sets is because some people are kinda including the Ferris Wheel in that class.  It is a very nice set that will surely be a very solid investment.  Home run?  I don't know about that.  Maybe a triple.  

[redghostx]

How about:

 

Everyone is right or everyone is wrong but EVERYONE can enjoy what looks like a beautiful display piece instead of debating whether this will make you 2.5x or 3x your investment.  It looks like a winner and we can all profit from it in the future and that's what matters.

[tractorboy]

​I agree with you, none of these sets have done MF/Taj/GC spectacular.  And none of them will.  That was a different era.  We're in the investor/hoarder age of Lego now.  I'll be happy with 2x to 3x returns on well-selected sets.  That's the game today, which sets will bring those returns.   With the singular exception of TH and its unusual situation, the day that exclusives reach 5x RRP is over.   And given this, FW is an excellent new addition.  It has all the hallmarks of being another very-good 3x set 18 months post EOL.

​That's pretty much all I was saying. The age of those really big winners is probably passed. I'm happy with x2 or x3 gains too, and there's plenty of those to be had with some smart investments. Maybe we'll get lucky and still have the occasional TH or HH too. I don't think this set will be one of those though.

Edited April 30, 2015 by tractorboy