75054 - AT-AT

[GhostDad]

9 hours ago, Ciglione said:

Xmas and Rogue One surely had its effect on supply. The price only grew a little bit. But I have good hopes for January. As most people will have viewed the new movie and Xmas envelopes are opened. 

My goal for 75054 AT-AT and 75055 ISD is to net 200 Euro each after fees. Almost there.

AT-AT supply is less than supply for ISD here on ebay Germany. And AT-AT is still slightly cheaper than ISD. But the difference is getting smaller each day passes.

This is where the possibility of a Lego AT-ACT concerns me.  People say it would be no substitute for the AT-AT, but if it's the new movie driving demand and people are scooping up AT-AT's because they see the AT-ACT's in the movie and the AT-AT is the closest thing out there, then a Lego AT-ACT would absolutely soak up the extra demand driven by Rogue One.

And of course, even the announcement of a Lego AT-ACT, or a leaked catalog pic or whatever, six months before the actual release date would be enough to drive extra AT-AT inventory onto the market and prices down, as happened with the announcement of the "new" Death Star.

[Val-E]

I´m figuring between now and May is the optimum time to get rid of this and ISD. Unfortunately a lot of people are on their second xmas of trying to sell their AT AT´s and haven´t managed it so there are a glut of them around.

ISD is pretty scarce and I´m down to my last one too. Doubt thes will make it to 250 euros after fees so there seems no point in taking risks with remakes. The Lepin one will do enough damage as is.

[fossilrock]

I've paired down my at-ats over the holiday season to where I now sit at 3.  I started with 11 as an investment last year, and i've followed the tide since last winter when they were at 2x almost instantly during retirement.  Over the last 12 months, I'd dump one here and there as the tide rose.  A month ago I thought this set would top at 300... now i'm pretty sure we will see it hit 350 by January.  The question then remains where it will go from there?  Judging from what has been posted on other threads, and even brickiest, i'm not sure they are making an AT-ACT.  That doesn't seem like it's in the plans.  400 on this one is a real possibility, but I do think after January it will come back down a little and could stagnate a little bit. This is one set that if we don't see it again by next year, 450ish is possible for next christmas.  It's really a tough one to gauge on when to let them go.  

The republic gunship was another one that has been very successful.  It's also topped 300 this holiday season...  I couldn't resist that price and blew my last ones of those out... But the AT-AT's are so tough to gauge, because each time you leave one go, you regret it a week later because the price jumps another 25.00... Either way, this is one of the more successful sets of the last year.  1 year after retirement and it's already 3 x if you were buying in the low 90s when these were on sale at that price consistently from mid septmeber - black friday of 2015. 

 

[GhostDad]

3 hours ago, fossilrock said:

I've paired down my at-ats over the holiday season to where I now sit at 3.  I started with 11 as an investment last year, and i've followed the tide since last winter when they were at 2x almost instantly during retirement.  Over the last 12 months, I'd dump one here and there as the tide rose.  A month ago I thought this set would top at 300... now i'm pretty sure we will see it hit 350 by January.  The question then remains where it will go from there?  Judging from what has been posted on other threads, and even brickiest, i'm not sure they are making an AT-ACT.  That doesn't seem like it's in the plans.  400 on this one is a real possibility, but I do think after January it will come back down a little and could stagnate a little bit. This is one set that if we don't see it again by next year, 450ish is possible for next christmas.  It's really a tough one to gauge on when to let them go.  

The republic gunship was another one that has been very successful.  It's also topped 300 this holiday season...  I couldn't resist that price and blew my last ones of those out... But the AT-AT's are so tough to gauge, because each time you leave one go, you regret it a week later because the price jumps another 25.00... Either way, this is one of the more successful sets of the last year.  1 year after retirement and it's already 3 x if you were buying in the low 90s when these were on sale at that price consistently from mid septmeber - black friday of 2015. 

 

Yeah, it's been like that for me.  Sell one, regret it later, sell another one at a higher price, regret that one too...

A couple years ago, I came up with a personal rule that basically says, "If a set rises fast off the blocks (retirement), hold it longer, 'cause it will likely keep rising".  And vice versa.  The 'vice versa' part (if a set rises slowly post-EOL, dump it quick, 'cause it's probably going nowhere), has stayed true for the most part.  The problem is, over the past year, several sets that initially rose rapidly have then slid back down.

Holding 10211, 10221, 10224, 10225, 10228, and 10937 for the past 12 months has netted you a loss.  All those sets doubled (or then some) very fast post-EOL and then got stuck.  10228 and 10937 have fallen sharply since then.  10937 actually hit $300 in a couple months after EOL, and then dropped down to $250.  That was long before the remake was announced.  And of course there hasn't been a remake of 10228, or any of the other sets I mention.  So I'm not really sure what to think any more.  There are ceilings that sets hit, even without a remake.

I'm regretting selling my 75054's too fast this holiday season, and to a lesser extent my 75055's.  But I'm really glad I dumped most of my 10228 stash last Fall at ~$430, 10225 sets at $360, and so on, 'cause those have only come down, and sitting on all of them for an extra year only to tie up my funds and floor space for negative returns would have been pretty terrible.  For these newer sets, there's a lot of shadow inventory out there, folks just waiting for the price to plateau so they can back a truck up to an Amazon warehouse and dump their stash into the FBA market.  Ditto for eBay.  So for example, the number of 10228 sellers on eBay has actually risen as the price has come down.  Happened to 10240 as well.  It would be great if there were an online inventory tracker measuring the number of sets sitting in garages, basements, attics, and whatnot, but all we have is self-reported measures, and I have the feeling that the really big sellers don't bother updating the world on their changing stock levels.

[Furious_george]

2 x buy in plus fess , quick sale? I'm out every time.  I will win some and I will lose some.

[Ciglione]

Sold an AT-AT yesterday for 2x buy-in net.

Still 3x AT-AT's and 3x ISD's left. Enjoying the ride on these.

 

 

[Bold-Arrow]

Newbies holding back the price .. 

[cladner]

6 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Newbies holding back the price .. 

they too shall pass.  i have 6 left i will unload at $450 or the end of April - whichever comes first.

[landphieran]

2 hours ago, cladner said:

they too shall pass.  i have 6 left i will unload at $450 or the end of April - whichever comes first.

 

3 hours ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Newbies holding back the price .. 

Do you think people will be willing to pay that much? I can't see this breaking 400$ for at least another year.

[botchy123]

On 12/26/2016 at 0:24 PM, Ciglione said:

Sold an AT-AT yesterday for 2x buy-in net.

Still 3x AT-AT's and 3x ISD's left. Enjoying the ride on these.

 

 

Keep em 6 months. 

[smsklpl]

30 offers in Amazon US

[giannini78]

As Rogue One is clearly a stand alone movie, if they will make a ISD & an AT-ACT, it's going to be in the first 6 months of 2017 and with the Sandcrawler & EV now moving into retirement, that leaves space for two major big sets.

[fossilrock]

On 12/27/2016 at 0:38 PM, landphieran said:

 

Do you think people will be willing to pay that much? I can't see this breaking 400$ for at least another year.

I don't think it will hit that until November 2017... I've already been wrong about this set last year, as I thought it wouldn't top 300, but it did.  But, I just don't know how much juice is left to squeeze from this one.  I think very few are going to want to pay more than 400 for this, and I think as prices continue to rise they will sit for a while.  I noticed the 330 mark has sort of held it's ground for a few weeks now, so I don't know if it will go much higher now that the selling season is ending and once the gate is lifted allowing those that couldn't sell on the site during that last few months back in.  Last year I remember most sets dropping down a bit during that period, and then we had a slow spring/summer/fall swing.  I'd suspect the same will occur this year. 

I'm feeling comfortable about blowing quite a few At-At's out around the 300 mark this holiday season.  To me that's a win, considering I held many of those for practically less than a year.  Squeezing 400 out of the remainder will be a goal, but I just don't know if that will happen...

[mudcatsfan]

The current At-At pricing seems absurd when you can get the previous version with more figures and almost exactly the same build for less. There's several 8129 new & sealed,  buy it now for $305-310 on eBay. 

For only a little more you can get the motorized walking version.

Crazy.

[jaisonline]

2 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

The current At-At pricing seems absurd when you can get the previous version with more figures and almost exactly the same build for less. There's several 8129 new & sealed,  buy it now for $305-310 on eBay. 

For only a little more you can get the motorized walking version.

Crazy.

yup. i sold my 2 75054s because prices are getting bloated for a vehicle that has been remade many times.  i saw nothing special about this set compared to my motprized 10178 and 8129.

pic from eurobricks edited  by me.  note: 10178 isn't standing up straight so it appears shorter.

 

link for more details =

http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/search.cfm?searchterm=at-at&sort=set_pieces&order=desc

 

here's more at-at comparison pics. see the pic above to know which at-at is which lego set.

http://brickset.com/article/12296/review-75054-at-at

 

[waddamon]

Rule of profit is you haven't made jack until you sell.  So holding equals a zero return until sold.  If I had a hundred I could see waiting a bit, if I have 3, that is 75-100 dollars difference, who cares, you won, take your gains and move to the next.  The big sets have a strong trend line, despite a flat or small down year.  Hold the line on those knowing small risk of Lego remaking.  Seller count goes down, supply goes down, prices start moving up.  Patience and also not being too greedy, just a little.

[GhostDad]

7 hours ago, mudcatsfan said:

The current At-At pricing seems absurd when you can get the previous version with more figures and almost exactly the same build for less. There's several 8129 new & sealed,  buy it now for $305-310 on eBay. 

For only a little more you can get the motorized walking version.

Crazy.

Well, people are mixing up Amazon and eBay prices on this one.  On eBay, lowest MISB 75054's right now are $260 shipped.  So $305-$310 is considerably more.  On Amazon, 75054 seems to sell (if it sells) for ~$70 more than on eBay, which is weird.  For 75055, for example, there's almost no difference at all between the two sites.

I'm surprised Lego did not release an AT-ACT.  It would have been a guaranteed winner.  Makes me wonder if their licensing deal precluded that set, so Hasbro could sell (or try to sell) its giant AT-ACT toy.  At this point, the biggest near-term threat to 75054 would appear to be the possibility of a UCS AT-AT.  I think we know all the other non-UCS new sets up to next Fall.  Though you never know.  Lately Lego seems to have decided there should almost always be a Desert Skiff and Luke's Landspeeder set in production.

[HandyHand]

In The Netherlands on Marktplaats the AT-AT is outselling the ISD. NISB offers are €200 vs €180 respectively. There are also more offers for the ISD than the AT-AT. 

There are now even 2 offers for used (display only) AT-AT sets at €200. 

Since a remake at some time in the near future is a given as the AT-AT is a staple of the Lego Star Wars range, I have gradually sold my sets with nice but not outrageous profits. Down to my last one in stock which I will hold until the selling price reaches a plateau.

[mudcatsfan]

12 hours ago, GhostDad said:

Well, people are mixing up Amazon and eBay prices on this one.  On eBay, lowest MISB 75054's right now are $260 shipped.  So $305-$310 is considerably more.  On Amazon, 75054 seems to sell (if it sells) for ~$70 more than on eBay, which is weird.  For 75055, for example, there's almost no difference at all between the two sites.

I'm surprised Lego did not release an AT-ACT.  It would have been a guaranteed winner.  Makes me wonder if their licensing deal precluded that set, so Hasbro could sell (or try to sell) its giant AT-ACT toy.  At this point, the biggest near-term threat to 75054 would appear to be the possibility of a UCS AT-AT.  I think we know all the other non-UCS new sets up to next Fall.  Though you never know.  Lately Lego seems to have decided there should almost always be a Desert Skiff and Luke's Landspeeder set in production.

That's a fair point on noting the vast price discrepancy between ebay & amazon. However, i didn't look all that hard and found a bunch of the 8129 at $305, $310.

It just seems odd to me that the 75054 blew so far past that price on Amazon. It's likely due to customer ignorance of the previous At-At's existence. I suspect much of Amazon Lego purchasing benefits from customer ignorance of other options.

 I noted it only to show that the 75054 has yet another potential for down turn (or at least a plateau) in that 8129 is available, and so are two other AT-AT's. All are at least as nice, if not much better (the walking version), and now, all are in the same ballpark, price-wise. if you expect the 75054 to hit $400 and 450 (as i've seen people mention) then you better hope your customers dont find out about the previously released sets.

Edited January 3, 2017 by mudcatsfan

[asharerin]

7 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

It just seems odd to me that the 75054 blew so far past that price on Amazon. It's likely due to customer ignorance of the previous At-At's existence. I suspect much of Amazon Lego purchasing benefits from customer ignorance of other options.

Amazon buyers generally have higher incomes and value convenience and their time and are not primarily concerned with prices (they only discriminate based on  prices on the platform). Not every Amazon buyer is like this, but the vast majority of FBA members fit into this category. If you have more money than time, and Alexa, you simply don't care about ebay. There are also plenty of amazon sellers who will never understand the pool of customers they are marketing to and will drop prices below ebay prices - wait them out for the big profits.

[BrickLegacy]

I assume that SEO plays a role here. Someone goes to google and searches for lego atat and finds the first link to Amazon, clicks buy, done.

[exciter1]

I'm still selfishly holding onto 2 as I'm selling others, what to do, what to do?

[fossilrock]

36 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

I'm still selfishly holding onto 2 as I'm selling others, what to do, what to do?

I'd selfishly hold them a little longer!  2 is worth the gamble of 4 or 5x... Heck, just blow out the other set slackers at this point, and wait until next holiday season.  This set isn't a slacker, and I think we are safe from seeing another AT-AT this year, which means next year a 100 rise is a possibility...  I just think it won't go there until next holiday season, and that of course is dependent on a moderately stable economy..

[exciter1]

1 minute ago, fossilrock said:

I'd selfishly hold them a little longer!  2 is worth the gamble of 4 or 5x... Heck, just blow out the other set slackers at this point, and wait until next holiday season.  This set isn't a slacker, and I think we are safe from seeing another AT-AT this year, which means next year a 100 rise is a possibility...  I just think it won't go there until next holiday season, and that of course is dependent on a moderately stable economy..

Yep, these are builders.  It's just hard to justify holding these cycled sets longer term.

[fossilrock]

15 minutes ago, exciter1 said:

Yep, these are builders.  It's just hard to justify holding these cycled sets longer term.

Right now they are still cycling through the 2012 and 2013 sets.  Last year was droid escape (last done in 2012), and homing spider droid (2013)..  This year it's desert skiff (2012), landspeeder (2014), y-wing (2012) and a-wing (2013).  I'd say early into the holiday selling season (late october-early november) would be when i'd sell my last at-ats to get peak pricing, because i'd suspect if they do make another at-at it will be in the summer wave of 2018.  This year, that wave seems set, and the at-at isn't rumored to be in it.

Give it one more year and the Republic Gunship, Jabba's Sail Barge, ISD, and AT-AT are going to start back into the recycle cue.

Edited January 4, 2017 by fossilrock