Ideas #009: 21301 - Birds

[ED-209]

Well it's not 'told you so' time yet.

If you search around, it can still be found at a reasonable price before the prices climb.

Where I live, it's virtually disappeared. Unlike what I said earlier, I did manage to buy one last copy at retail price.

[Val-E]

If you look at some posts, more than a few established investors seem still to be living in 2009. It´s no longer necessarily the best or safest policy to stock up in huge amounts on all large exclusives, especially modulars. IDEAS is the top performing range but it is still a risky business as you go in too deep on a stinker like Exo and you´ll be regretting it for a long time.

Lego seems to have become a lot more capricious with its retirement schedules and while Exclusives seem to be paying the price, it means there are lot of great opportunities with sets that were culled before their prime.

Birds appears to have slipped through the net, maybe because it had no licence, no minifigs and seemed to be appear to a minority of weirdos yet few paid attention to how many units it moved this spring/summer. These days, if the horde snubs a set, it is worth a look as at least you won´t be up against 500 other resellers cutting each others´s throats to sell off their stock when they realise there is not enough demand for their stock.

BTW, how many NISB  MK2 cranes have sold on Ebay since it retired compared with before - and at what price? And how many unsold listings are there? How many haven´t even listed theirs yet as their buy-in was too high?

[Val-E]

7 minutes ago, ED-209 said:

Well it's not 'told you so' time yet.

If you search around, it can still be found at a reasonable price before the prices climb.

Where I live, it's virtually disappeared. Unlike what I said earlier, I did manage to buy one last copy at retail price.

In most of Europe, Birds was a lego shop exclusive so our only hope is to get one on ebay or similar. Some French seller had them at 55 or nearest offer until they realised it had retired so there may always be a few misinformed resellers who unload them on the cheap but otherwise the price is only going one way.

[dcdfan]

2 hours ago, Haay said:

Funny how the nay-sayers of this set here get disproved so quickly. And silly me for not having bought more Birds sets. I had a good feeling about this set from the start, and I didn't act upon it. Just bought one because I was still new to Lego investing last September and figuring out what works and what doesn't. Kept an eye on it, and all signs were in the green that this would be a good investment!

I would not have guessed you went light, based on your profile pic...

[HandyHand]

This is on the Dutch Marktplaats website. The few open offers now are asking for €75 or more and offers are coming in close already:

[Locutus001]

12 hours ago, fondkick said:

Ok, he say i works fine forHH or SSD but we are sitting with our SC and EEE (like it's not a great investment) ... i didn't understand well his sentence?

Ok, he say i works fine forHH or SSD but we are sitting with our SC and EEE (like it's not a great investment) ... i didn't understand well his sentence?

Hey, I'm sitting on 3x SC that I'd love to sell... probably won't get out of this with more than 10-20€ profit.

Last time I checked EEE on ebay.de (germany) it wasn't the biggest hit. Personally I didn't invest in this one and maybe my data is obsolete. I had the feeling that selling it in Germany was difficult. If that's not the case then I'll take back EEE ;-)

 

12 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

The only issue I have with the Delorean is that I was out of my mind not to get more than one! What could be wrong with a set that has tripled in value in less than a year?

I have been meaning issues of the Set itself (the design really is improveable...)

 

Independent of EOL. Not after EOL issues. Not few people have been arguing that the set itself doesn't really look impressive and that they wonder about the post-EOL value. I bought my own copy and after building it have been a little bit disappointed. I'm not at all disappointed with the post-EOL performance and am still mad that I didn't buy more ;-) But I wouldn't say that everybody was 100% positive about this set performing as well as it is doing after EOL.

 

12 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

BTW, to get back on topic - look how much people are asking for the signed designer editon of Birds on Ebay UK. I wonder if anyone is actually buying them, though.

Who knows ;-) But I like the pace of this set.

[diablo2112]

14 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

If you look at some posts, more than a few established investors seem still to be living in 2009. It´s no longer necessarily the best or safest policy to stock up in huge amounts on all large exclusives, especially modulars. IDEAS is the top performing range but it is still a risky business as you go in too deep on a stinker like Exo and you´ll be regretting it for a long time.

Lego seems to have become a lot more capricious with its retirement schedules and while Exclusives seem to be paying the price, it means there are lot of great opportunities with sets that were culled before their prime.

Birds appears to have slipped through the net, maybe because it had no licence, no minifigs and seemed to be appear to a minority of weirdos yet few paid attention to how many units it moved this spring/summer. These days, if the horde snubs a set, it is worth a look as at least you won´t be up against 500 other resellers cutting each others´s throats to sell off their stock when they realise there is not enough demand for their stock.

BTW, how many NISB  MK2 cranes have sold on Ebay since it retired compared with before - and at what price? And how many unsold listings are there? How many haven´t even listed theirs yet as their buy-in was too high?

Some great insights here and fantastic insights for new investors.  Regarding Birds - for US-based investors - this really was the ideal acquisition last Spring during the $5 off $25 and stacked 10%-off Thursdays at TRU.  $44 MSRP became a $35 purchase, and that's how I acquired most of the sets in my inventory.   It was well established that the IDEAs themed sets almost always had less than 12-month lives as well, and indeed, we see that now for this set.  For those paying attention (in the US), this set wasn't much risk, was acquired at great discount from MSRP, and all early clues were that it would see price appreciation on EOL.  As Eric says, its not 2009 anymore and you have to work to find your Lego investments today.  

To answer an obvious follow-on question, I don't really see a similar set available today.  I'm less enthusiastic on Wall-E here, as I don't see it with as much AFOL appeal as Birds.  Ecto-1, maybe.   My dark horse candidate is Ferris Wheel (and possibly Mixer), especially if we see a third set in this theme next Spring.  Mixer has flown under the investor radar, but the Ferris Wheel certainly won't.  We'll see how these develop.

[HandyHand]

14 hours ago, Locutus001 said:

Hey, I'm sitting on 3x SC that I'd love to sell... probably won't get out of this with more than 10-20€ profit.

One of my personal criteria for choosing which sets to buy as investment is: would I like to build it myself should it not increase in value post EOL ? 

A set I wouldn't want to have myself is a set I won't buy, regardless if people on this forum are highly positive about it as an investment. 

If I'm not certain about a future appreciation of a set I'll buy just one and just see how it will go. In the case of Birds, that was my initial thought about buying one of them. Especially since I had just started as a new LEGO investor and was (and still am) still wet behind the ears.  I could have bought a few more of the Birds set over the past weeks, but there were so many other interesting sets I could invest my money in as well, so I let Birds slip into Retired status while having only one of them.

Regarding Sopwith Camel: I bought 2 of them from fellow Brickpicker mauro through his eBay auction, at a price including shipping that's barely above (Dutch) MSRP. Since they had already retired before I came out of my dark age, I couldn't get it below MSRP anyway. Looking forward to some day building one SC for myself, but not in a hurry.  

[Locutus001]

24 minutes ago, Haay said:

One of my personal criteria for choosing which sets to buy as investment is: would I like to build it myself should it not increase in value post EOL ? 

A set I wouldn't want to have myself is a set I won't buy, regardless if people on this forum are highly positive about it as an investment. 

If I'm not certain about a future appreciation of a set I'll buy just one and just see how it will go. In the case of Birds, that was my initial thought about buying one of them. Especially since I had just started as a new LEGO investor and was (and still am) still wet behind the ears.  I could have bought a few more of the Birds set over the past weeks, but there were so many other interesting sets I could invest my money in as well, so I let Birds slip into Retired status while having only one of them.

Regarding Sopwith Camel: I bought 2 of them from fellow Brickpicker mauro through his eBay auction, at a price including shipping that's barely above (Dutch) MSRP. Since they had already retired before I came out of my dark age, I couldn't get it below MSRP anyway. Looking forward to some day building one SC for myself, but not in a hurry.  

That's exactly what I'm doing as well. Just with Soptwith Camel I didn't... c'est la vie.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Haay said:

One of my personal criteria for choosing which sets to buy as investment is: would I like to build it myself should it not increase in value post EOL ? 

A set I wouldn't want to have myself is a set I won't buy, regardless if people on this forum are highly positive about it as an investment. 

 

That makes sense except I wouldn't want to build 10+ of these in any scenario...

[HandyHand]

43 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

That makes sense except I wouldn't want to build 10+ of these in any scenario...

Of course! Any set I have multiples of are sets where I'd want to build one for myself, and am confident enough they will increase in value in the future post EOL. The "would like to build myself" is a watershed selection criteria for me whether I'd buy into a set or not.

[brickelements]

Jet.com is carries this set 21301 for retail.

https://jet.com/product/LEGO-Ideas-Birds-Blue-Jay-Hummingbird-and-Robin-Set/e2c2cd7f12c448359e1d1d0390b9929b

 

Use scarymommy2015 if you are a new customer to get a 20% discount...combined with adding up to six into your cart for additional savings.

Pretax is $34.78 each for these (208.68 for 6)

[diablo2112]

30 minutes ago, brickelements said:

Jet.com is carries this set 21301 for retail.

https://jet.com/product/LEGO-Ideas-Birds-Blue-Jay-Hummingbird-and-Robin-Set/e2c2cd7f12c448359e1d1d0390b9929b

 

Use scarymommy2015 if you are a new customer to get a 20% discount...combined with adding up to six into your cart for additional savings.

Pretax is $34.78 each for these (208.68 for 6)

*poof*

[Hayttees]

Right now set is breaking 75£ in UK. No bad for set without minifigures and licence.

[diablo2112]

6 hours ago, Hayttees said:

Right now set is breaking 75£ in UK. No bad for set without minifigures and licence.

eBay sales of this set in the last week have been at the 80£ price point, not including shipping.  Add in the typical 11£ shipping, and this set is has sellers willing to pay over 90£ for acquisition.

If you acquired at $35 in the US (my buy-in for about 50 sets), that 90£ translates to $140 dollars at current exchange rates.  That's 4x acquisition cost less than a month after EOL.   Not bad at all, and early predictions of this possibly becoming a 5x set don't seem unreasonable now. (yeah, I know US/UK logistics, etc.   Just wait, you'll see)

Edited December 13, 2015 by diablo2112

[mauro23]

It would make sense to get 50 of them from USA to Europe (also with shipping and duties) but the question is who has 50 of them and is willing to sell them at $40...

Edited December 13, 2015 by mauro23

[Seal Cutter]

Yeah, anyone in the US who wants to sell me ~50 units of this set for ~$40 each is more than welcome to PM me, and we can do a deal. Cash waiting...

[Seal Cutter]

I think i missed the boat on this set if nobody wants to sell me some cheaply. Unfortunately it fell outside the category that others speak of "would i like to build it myself?". In this day & age brick built birds don't get me excited, unfortunately.

[JeffProbst]

I'm a small time trader, but I went early with these and am happy with my stash (all RRP but what can you do).

My father is a bird-watcher and the first set that I purchased went straight to him. We built it together and he has it set up in his study at the moment. This set might have a wider appeal than most and the box is beautiful. 

[HandyHand]

1 hour ago, JeffProbst said:

I'm a small time trader, but I went early with these and am happy with my stash (all RRP but what can you do).

My father is a bird-watcher and the first set that I purchased went straight to him. We built it together and he has it set up in his study at the moment. This set might have a wider appeal than most and the box is beautiful. 

I think you're right. This set has display value especially with the non-Lego crowd who happen to be bird-lovers! The box is really attractive and presentable as a gift. 

Why oh why did I only buy one Birds set and didn't buy more of them...  

[CNH1974]

3 hours ago, JeffProbst said:

I'm a small time trader, but I went early with these and am happy with my stash (all RRP but what can you do).

My father is a bird-watcher and the first set that I purchased went straight to him. We built it together and he has it set up in his study at the moment. This set might have a wider appeal than most and the box is beautiful. 

When ebay is trading at or above RRP, then buying at RRP is no bad thing.

For example RRP is the cheapest way to get the Pet Shop in the UK at the moment.

[HandyHand]

7 minutes ago, CNH1974 said:

When ebay is trading at or above RRP, then buying at RRP is no bad thing.

For example RRP is the cheapest way to get the Pet Shop in the UK at the moment.

The Birds set has never even been sold below MSRP in The Netherlands. So buying at MSRP was, for this set, the best and only solution.

[CNH1974]

5 minutes ago, Haay said:

The Birds set has never even been sold below MSRP in The Netherlands. So buying at MSRP was, for this set, the best and only solution.

Same in the UK. 

But you do effectively get 5% off with points.

[Val-E]

Only one below 2xRRP on EU ebay. When Mauro is done flipping his 400 units the price will surely rise more

Edited December 18, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Ciglione]

6 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

Only one below 2xRRP on EU ebay. When Mauro is done flipping his 400 units the price will surely rise more

I believe Mauro did not take the flipping class at the Brickpicker Academy.