10249 - Winter Toy Shop

[chipbee]

This reissue is not good news. That is a given. Just how bad it is won't be known until another set is reissued...if it ever is. But it is keeping everyone guessing...right? Maybe that's the point. Mix it up. Change retirement order. Reissue an old set once in awhile. Or maybe it's just about a lack of ideas for the Winter sets, which is a lame excuse, so there is some other motive I'm sure. Chaos.

Agree thatthis bad move by the company is going to create a lot of doubts with lego investors. This will yield short term gain and long term pain for the company, very short sighted for a dannish private firm. I hope there is sufficient pressure from top executives to stop such short sightedness.

[Fcbarcelona101]

Agree thatthis bad move by the company is going to create a lot of doubts with lego investors. This will yield short term gain and long term pain for the company, very short sighted for a dannish private firm. I hope there is sufficient pressure from top executives to stop such short sightedness.

Bad move from our point of view. Not necessarily bad for the company.

[chipbee]

 

Bad move from our point of view. Not necessarily bad for the company.

it is definitely bad for the company if lego investors decided to no longer buy up EOL sets, then the product turnover cycle will stretch out and the brand loses a lot of word of mouth free advertising. There are more than enough collectibles in the world to draw away AFOL attention. The company better listen to their best customers and not treat us like pariah.

[Fcbarcelona101]

it is definitely bad for the company if lego investors decided to no longer buy up EOL sets, then the product turnover cycle will stretch out and the brand loses a lot of word of mouth free advertising. There are more than enough collectibles in the world to draw away AFOL attention. The company better listen to their best customers and not treat us like pariah.

I think it will be very hard for people who invest in LEGO not to continue doing it just because a handful of sets might be refreshed every now and then. 

[KShine]

I think it will be very hard for people who invest in LEGO not to continue doing it just because a handful of sets might be refreshed every now and then. 

This goes beyond the investors - I am also concerned about my customers being left to feel like stupid idiots who just got screwed (seemingly by me).

Yes, we make money, and yes, the prices can get ridiculous - but at least (until now) we could honestly state to a buyer of high prices sets, that even though they are expensive, if the set continues to be taken care of (and loved), the price will likely continue to increase.

Once the high priced collectors start associating their purchases with the negative feeling of getting screwed - many will likely stop. 

[chipbee]

 

I think it will be very hard for people who invest in LEGO not to continue doing it just because a handful of sets might be refreshed every now and then. 

as both an lego investor and collector, i am already cutting back on my investment as a precaution. Before this blatant re-issue, i may buy 5 sets of an exclusive set as investment. Now i am cutting down to 4, just in case. Another re-issue and i will likely reduce further down to 2 set for investment or totally get out of this trade. It is hard work keeping track of stock and selling sets, and it has to be worthwhile.

A re-issue raises doubts on wisdom of lego executives. I do not want to be caught with huge inventory of lego toys if the company executives show their propensity to make quick bucks at the expense of brand protection. Actually the first warning sign is the decision to manufacture in China. The re-issue of winter toy shop is strike 2.

Fyi i sold my last WV toy shop set last year.

Edited August 25, 2015 by chipbee

[tdw]

This is the 2nd recent reissue.  The Technic race truck 8041 was reissued this year as 42041.

[biking_tiger]

 

I think it will be very hard for people who invest in LEGO not to continue doing it just because a handful of sets might be refreshed every now and then. 

As it should be. 

Once the high priced collectors start associating their purchases with the negative feeling of getting screwed - many will likely stop. 

Very true as well, but we likely have some time before we get there.

[montreid]

As I said before to rehash groundhog style:

Lego Group probably decided to end the line after Village Market and a 1/2 ass runon Santa Workshop; but somewhere in that line, decided to reverse but found themselves stuck with little time to throw together something--hence the fast refresh/reprint of old molds.

This probably with the worst case scenario for all groups--resellers, collectors, and kids as it robs the true fan of lego of another unique, different set.   Lego is just like Tyco and My Little Pony or any other Toy collectible -- 1st rule -- Don't repeat.    If you want to reissue something close make it different enough to satisfy all camps--toilet bowl wreaths are not enough!   Have no doubt, Lego SHOULD understand that investor/collectors are a significant part of their business model.  Let's see how well these sell this year.  

If lego were into fan responses:  As a collector; have the master builders come up with an alternate build for the set to make it whole -- I would buy another set in a heartbeat for my continued personal collection.   Needless to say, the investing portion of my budget will go other lines -- like Scooby 

[thegooch49]

I vote for a reverse reseller effect. Let's all vow to by zero of these, so there is excess inventory. If they don't sell, maybe will get the hint not to do this anymore. Or we learn that we are nothing but a small blip on legos radar (which I suspect).

[dcdfan]

I vote for a reverse reseller effect. Let's all vow to by zero of these, so there is excess inventory. If they don't sell, maybe will get the hint not to do this anymore. Or we learn that we are nothing but a small blip on legos radar (which I suspect).

I don't think you'll get any takers & I do not think this foolish act on Lego's behalf has anything to do with resellers at all...

[Ciglione]

I vote for a reverse reseller effect. Let's all vow to by zero of these, so there is excess inventory. If they don't sell, maybe will get the hint not to do this anymore. Or we learn that we are nothing but a small blip on legos radar (which I suspect).

I remember this commercial from a dutch insurance company. Which illustrates this. Watch!

 

[thegooch49]

I do not think this foolish act on Lego's behalf has anything to do with resellers at all...

I don't either. I think it's something closer to the comment made by montreid. 

I remember this commercial from a dutch insurance company. Which illustrates this. Watch!

Yeah, I think that's about right Ciglione. 

[trekgate502]

we are like a moth to the flame boys a moth to the flame

- lego space police

 

Edited August 25, 2015 by trekgate502

[Fcbarcelona101]

I know not everybody is like me, but I have bought some older editions of sets (to sell) that have then been re-released and have never thought of blaming the seller for the subsequent decrease in price of the older version.

[ZULU]

Hi,

I've been digesting this shocking news, reading the forums...

NO NEW WV set!!!

This is a very, very bad development. Truly shocking.

Why did TLG make this decision? Some guesses:

1. TLG listens to its customers.

Most people like to have all the VW sets. At current second hand prices (new or used), it became prohibitive for many. TLG is sensitive to customer feedback and adapts to it. Maybe by relesing this set, it also gambles the new customers are more important to make than satisfy 200% the old loyal ones! How about that?! When a company prefers the new before the loyal and largest clients, it's on the path for selfdestruction. The day they re-release CC, GG etc, I'm out of this game.

People can always build the older sets from their own brick collection. All the instructions are available online. Get those missing from bricks at Bricklink and build that toy shop without even having to buy it if you really want it. Lego is about building. One good reason for TLG to re-release this set, is that selling at 70E is more profitable than giving margin to "part outers". Fans since 2011 who haven't invested and only collected should be happy about this announcement. How large is this segment?

If they listen to customers like I think they do, send an E-mail to TLG customer service with the request of a new set. Complain about this situation! At least that's the first thing I did when I saw this announcement.

2. TLG wants to keep the second hand market under control, avoid having it spin into a bubble.

When a company starts to deflate its own second hand market, there's something very wrong with strategy. The second hand market of collectables makes any purchase of the new set more bearable. In the end, if you buy a Cinema Ticket, you pay for a memory. There nothing to recuperate. This kind of visual consumption means definitive capital destruction. Lego sets can be resold at the same price or higher whenever you'd like. It's in fact a free toy for any fan! Unless .... the second hand value drops. And this is what happened to this VW set. 

Now a wise person would remark that there's still a 3% upmark CAGR on MSRP. And that the drop of the original one is healthy as its price was out of control. (220E) So maybe TLG decided to purge a small bubble. Is it also uncomfortable with the 5000E value of MF? Or the 1500CC? 

3. Has TLG become lazy?

That almost seems unthinkable because it would be a capital sin for the richest toy company in the world. Stil I wonder: "Why have they decided to skip adding one new set to the line???" 

And here comes my personal biggest frustration (note: I hold 1 toy shop in the collection - not for sale): The best set to make with the family is a new Christmas set. This years' Christmas will feature NO PREPARATORY LEGO BUILD!!! What will I tell my kids?! "Sorry, we'll have to make our own snowmobile? Bring out the Medieval Market and add some white tiles on the roofs?"

Some traditions MUST be kept. My kids looked forward to this! Skipping a WV but adding the sooooooo outdated Scoobidoo licence, Ideas BBT (which is a boring set of minifigs), Elves sets (that resemble Playmobil)??? Terrible decisions. Terrible terrible. What is going on? TLG does too much first, and now TOO LITTLE????

4. TLG want to make life of resellers more difficult.

Clearly, stacking hundreds of expensive sets that have risen lots is a risky endeavour. Even my HH's and FB's seemed like a too large investment when I heard about the re-release.

At least it's a good test to see how many sets are hidden away. I was surprised to see that the toy shop of which only a few sets were sold on bricklink every month and stock shriveled below the 100 units suddenly showed 250 items in stock at half the price of the record sale the month before the news. With this move, clearly stocks will be released faster. And that's what TLG wants. Less hoarding. Less resale inventory. Faster release of sets. Long I thought resellers were allies to TLG. I'm not sure anymore. This release smells of a different game. I'm not going to fight the central bank of bricks. Time to take at least some chips off the table.

Conclusion: Personally the re-release is a mistake because it replaces the slot of a new set. If they would have decided to push 3 sets during Christmas (one re-release, one new and the one of last year), my conclusion wouldn't have been so harsh. We'll have to see how they move forward from here. If they start remaking lots of iconic sets, the impact could be far more dramatic. 

With this, I hope lots of similar feedback will find its way to TLG's so that we may get fantastic WV set next year and every year after!!! 

Best regards from a depressed Santa.

Edited August 26, 2015 by ZULU

[justapilgrim]

5. Money. They are in this to make money. This rerelease will make them money. Quit over thinking and go buy a changing seasons

[biking_tiger]

5. Money. They are in this to make money. This rerelease will make them money. Quit over thinking and go buy a changing seasons

Of course, and it is also in TLG's best interest to keep a healthy secondary market and keep any bubbles in check. I'd say:

5. Money. They are in this to make money and continue making as much money as possible for the foreseeable future.

A remake every now and then pricks the bubble without breaking it.

This story from NPR last spring about Magic: the Gathering helped me understand the impact of the secondary market on a toy/game. I think it has something to say about Lego going forward, in a way. Magic cards are a better comparison to Lego than sports cards (the dreaded sports card analogy) because they have play value and collectible value.

[lazuli16]

The reissue is probably our punishment for allowing Winter Village Market to sit on the shelf for so long.

[montreid]

Magic is a better premise, but it's still a role game like Bakugan.  Lego sets are separate entities with build value inherent within each unique set.  The series makes it a valuable overall commodity, and the lack of repeats makes it a collectible.  

Hallmark ornament series are the best comparison IMHO.  We build tree with our limited edition Hallmark ornaments every year and choose which ones gets to be on the tree that year.  There are a few we keep on display all year long on the shelves too.

Collectibles are just that.  Lego clearly has the legs for as a collectibles from standard hoarders like myself to AFOLs (also myself) that like to build sets/models all the time.  True to free market forces, if someone collects, someone will sell it--at the right price.

Now Lego understands Money and it's in the business of just that.  Sell sets.  Would selling a NEW original WV set sell more or less than a rehashed WV set?  If you have people already into the series, they should be buying the new set (along with reseller/investors).  If you want NEW blood into the series, a new set would do just that too.   I still believe the logical answer isn't Lego's desire to control the secondary market.  If so, it wouldn't do it with a single set like this.

More likely than not, corporate decided to continue the WV line after initially NOT choosing to continue it and that reversal occurred after production design times past and molds were too late to run for xmas---so they needed to pull an older off the shelf to satisfy the suits.

My plea again to Lego -- Give us an alternate build!  I will be happy to buy another set as a AFOL.   As an investor/reseller -- minimal funds are going to v2 --much more interesting sets this year to invest.

 

Edit:  one counter I'd like to offer --  How many Death Star 2 sets are sitting in everyone's shelves right now?  IF Lego decided to release that in 1-2 years with minor changes like changing the color of the lasers and giving an updated look to some mini's -- would that put a dent in the enthusiasm in buying up hoards of DS2 sets?   I put the secondary market is extremely deep on that set since people have thought it EOL every year for 3+ years and loaded up with each price drop.   Lego could easily 'manage' the secondary market, but to what end?  Unlike Magic, once a set retires, it doesn't diminish play portion of the build/play/love of the said activity -- Lego build.   A perfect example of Legos ability to refresh the same item x5 over without troubles -- AT-AT.   And collectors LOVE their 5+ different builds. 

Edited August 26, 2015 by montreid

[Brian Briggs]

Magic is a better premise, but it's still a role game like Bakugan.  Lego sets are separate entities with build value inherent within each unique set.  The series makes it a valuable overall commodity, and the lack of repeats makes it a collectible. 

Do you consider Magic a role-playing game? I'm really curious as in 15 years I never encountered anyone who played it that way. Flavor-wise the card decks are often all over the place. Raw card power and/or card interactions are generally more important than adhering to the flavor of a certain setting, especially when players construct their decks independently from each other.

Hallmark ornament series are the best comparison IMHO.  We build tree with our limited edition Hallmark ornaments every year and choose which ones gets to be on the tree that year.  There are a few we keep on display all year long on the shelves too.

In my opinion, the comparison to Magic is valid and very adequate. There are collectors in both hobbies while builders in Lego are more or less equivalent to players in Magic in that both are looking for entertainment-value. The value of Magic cards is a combination of play value (=demand from players) and rarity (=demand from collectors). Demand for Lego sets originates from collectors and builders. There are reprints for Magic and rereleases for Lego.

As for Magic, reprints didn't hurt the collectability and secondary market for cards. Reprints of cards are not uncommon and normally more or less distinguishable from former edtions of the same card (differences in artwork/layout). Depending on the desirability (=demand from collectors/players) of the card being reprinted, the price of older editions will either remain constant, go up (rare cases) or go down (most often the case, at least temporarily). This is what is happening with the Winter Village Toy Store right now. Prices are lowering as the appearance of the rerelease is very close to the original set.

The questions I'm asking myself are: Do Lego collectors collect different editions of basically the same set? If yes, then WVTS should be in demand from the collectors' side. What about the builders? Do they overall prefer the new improved version of the WVTS? This could hamper future price appreciation for 10199 and would favor the 10249 version in the long term.

[Ed Mack]

The Winter Village sets are overrated in my opinion. They are cute and collectible, but not big gainers for the most part. They have low ceilings long term. They are solid sets, but nothing really special. If LEGO wanted to shake up the secondary market, they would reissue the Cafe Corner or another iconic set, not some Technic set nobody cares about or a Winter themed set that only half the collectors care about.

[Fcbarcelona101]

The Winter Village sets are overrated in my opinion. They are cute and collectible, but not big gainers for the most part. They have low ceilings long term. They are solid sets, but nothing really special. If LEGO wanted to shake up the secondary market, they would reissue the Cafe Corner or another iconic set, not some Technic set nobody cares about or a Winter themed set that only half the collectors care about.

They are not huge winners, but at the same time they have usually been a pretty safe bet. Retirement for these has, so far, been pretty consistent at 2 years, unlike some of the other sets that have more variable shelf lives. 

[marcandre]

Live on LEGO Shop at Home

[jay4e]

Live on LEGO Shop at Home

available for "preorder".  has anyone seen these in store?  Usually LEGO Shop at Home has exclusives in warehouse ready to go during the VIP period.  

could just be new wording, or could be delayed.  will have to see how fast my order processes.

Edited September 16, 2015 by jay4e