10249 - Winter Toy Shop

[Miami Bomb Squad]

I think somehow, someway, somewhat;  this rehash of the Toy Shop has to do with the absent of Availability of Santa's Workshop & in conjunction with the poor performance of the Winter Village Market.
 

Edited August 19, 2015 by Miami Bomb Squad

[Darth_Raichu]

well we all survived the below I think we can survive this

the lesson 

learn how to adapt

 

I did not have a single 7191 so I "survived" the price drop after 10240 was released.    I won't have that trick in my bag anymore if anything in my storage gets a rehash 3-4 years from now 

[jay4e]

A few thoughts as a newer investor:

1. I don't want to over-correct based on this one incident, but I'm thinking of readjusting my long term strategy on non-licensed theme sets. With the obvious exception of Star Wars, I think most licensed sets aren't coming back. And if they do, it's because Hollywood is making a prequel/sequel/rehash years down the line (they always do). In many cases it bodes well for the originals. I think highly sought after licensed sets will be the safer way to go for long-term. Regardless, even with the non-licensed themes, it seems there's still plenty of money to be made with the right strategy. A lot of people aren't patient enough to wait years for a rehash. The Disney Vault Movie setup is a perfect example of this. The lineup for release is regular and set years in advance, yet people are willing to pay triple or quadruple for a movie that's still a few years away. Take advantage of the consumer impatience.

2. Lego seems to be phoning it in with a few sets/lineups lately. Is anyone impressed with the Jurassic World theme as far as design and quality? I'm not. It will be interesting to see if they're just spread too thin with other projects or something else is going on.

3. As someone who was in the dark ages when the original toy shop was released... cool, I want this set. It will sell well this year. And it's just that simple for Lego.

I agree.  I would not yet assume it is the norm for this kind of short term reissue.  They certainly have reissued sets, including "UCS" sets.  But this short of a time span, on a theme that really did not need a reissue.  Too me this just sounds like they did not have the time to do a full design, so decided to just rehash an existing design.  With all the new sets being release, I really think they just do not have enough designers to get these sets done properly.  So rather than release a poorly designed WV set, they decided to update the orignal.

Further it is likely the looked at sales number, and see WV selling 10-100x what it was when this set was available.  thus maybe there are that many WV fans that would like a second chance at it.

[mfortunek]

A few thoughts as a newer investor:

1. I don't want to over-correct based on this one incident, but I'm thinking of readjusting my long term strategy on non-licensed theme sets. With the obvious exception of Star Wars, I think most licensed sets aren't coming back. And if they do, it's because Hollywood is making a prequel/sequel/rehash years down the line (they always do). In many cases it bodes well for the originals. I think highly sought after licensed sets will be the safer way to go for long-term. Regardless, even with the non-licensed themes, it seems there's still plenty of money to be made with the right strategy. A lot of people aren't patient enough to wait years for a rehash. The Disney Vault Movie setup is a perfect example of this. The lineup for release is regular and set years in advance, yet people are willing to pay triple or quadruple for a movie that's still a few years away. Take advantage of the consumer impatience.

2. Lego seems to be phoning it in with a few sets/lineups lately. Is anyone impressed with the Jurassic World theme as far as design and quality? I'm not. It will be interesting to see if they're just spread too thin with other projects or something else is going on.

3. As someone who was in the dark ages when the original toy shop was released... cool, I want this set. It will sell well this year. And it's just that simple for Lego.

re #2, TLG did just yesterday release the Temple of Airjitzu, which is incredibly well designed and original for Lego. A 2000+ piece exclusive from a line we've never seen an exclusive for before. And it is cool as all hell. 

Sadly that has been completely lost in this whole hoopla over the new Toy Shop. I'm not saying the re-release of a retired winter village set doesn't deserve a lot of noise on the forums, but I guess I am just saying there are fun, positive things going on with Lego right now, too...

 

[trekgate502]

I think the issue I am trying to convey is that the entire Lego community did not implode and go away over the new X Wing
It will not implode and go away over this

More difficult for us ? possibly depending on your strategy before this occurred

More profitable for Lego ? absolutely

Timmy just woke up and is excited he can now afford that set that he wants that was released when he was too young and now he can get it at an affordable price.

Short sighted ? Not in Timmy's eyes and not in Lego either

I really want to own a 10179.  I had one a short drive away new sealed for 2500 bucks not too long ago and I passed.  very bad decision.  It has taken off and am not able to get one at this time and it is the one set as a new mint sealed I want the most.  Would I like to have 10179 released again for me ? yes I would  If I had a stack of 10179's I would be gearing to sell them all by this Christmas and I would have already planned that before this happened

In 5 years will I have any of my R2 D2 or 10240 inventory left ? no but I would not have before this happened either

yes exciter I am excited about 10240 lol

my point is I am not saying we have to like it but it is a fact so we have to adapt.  I am still in it.  Hope you will be to.

 

[P_R_Rice]

re #2, TLG did just yesterday release the Temple of Airjitzu, which is incredibly well designed and original for Lego. A 2000+ piece exclusive from a line we've never seen an exclusive for before. And it is cool as all hell. 

 

 

Very true... which is why I'm wondering if they're just spread too thin. Miscommunication happens all the time at companies. Especially ones growing like Lego. I work in IT for a large marketing/data firm that is growing like a weed. The account people are constantly promising the client things that we don't have the bandwidth to produce. They don't ask the people producing the product whether it's feasible, they're just worried about making that next sale. 

"You promised them what? And by when?".

The account people/business leads may have promised too much with their business partners with Jurassic World, Scooby Doo, Star Wars, and so on. It jives with what we're seeing with the "check back in X months" messages appearing on LEGO Shop at Home.

Edited August 19, 2015 by P_R_Rice

[dcdfan]

I think the issue I am trying to convey is that the entire Lego community did not implode and go away over the new X Wing
It will not implode and go away over this

More difficult for us ? possibly depending on your strategy before this occurred

More profitable for Lego ? absolutely

Timmy just woke up and is excited he can now afford that set that he wants that was released when he was too young and now he can get it at an affordable price.

Short sighted ? Not in Timmy's eyes and not in Lego either

I really want to own a 10179.  I had one a short drive away new sealed for 2500 bucks not too long ago and I passed.  very bad decision.  It has taken off and am not able to get one at this time and it is the one set as a new mint sealed I want the most.  Would I like to have 10179 released again for me ? yes I would  If I had a stack of 10179's I would be gearing to sell them all by this Christmas and I would have already planned that before this happened

In 5 years will I have any of my R2 D2 or 10240 inventory left ? no but I would not have before this happened either

yes exciter I am excited about 10240 lol

my point is I am not saying we have to like it but it is a fact so we have to adapt.  I am still in it.  Hope you will be to.

 

If people start feeling that they can just wait for the re-release of R2, that won't help drive the price up...Thus making Lego in the the long term, less desirable...

Edited August 19, 2015 by dcdfan

[biking_tiger]

I think the issue I am trying to convey is that the entire Lego community did not implode and go away over the new X Wing
It will not implode and go away over this

More difficult for us ? possibly depending on your strategy before this occurred

More profitable for Lego ? absolutely

Timmy just woke up and is excited he can now afford that set that he wants that was released when he was too young and now he can get it at an affordable price.

Short sighted ? Not in Timmy's eyes and not in Lego either

I really want to own a 10179.  I had one a short drive away new sealed for 2500 bucks not too long ago and I passed.  very bad decision.  It has taken off and am not able to get one at this time and it is the one set as a new mint sealed I want the most.  Would I like to have 10179 released again for me ? yes I would  If I had a stack of 10179's I would be gearing to sell them all by this Christmas and I would have already planned that before this happened

In 5 years will I have any of my R2 D2 or 10240 inventory left ? no but I would not have before this happened either

yes exciter I am excited about 10240 lol

my point is I am not saying we have to like it but it is a fact so we have to adapt.  I am still in it.  Hope you will be to.

 

Ditto. At least most of it (I never had that shot at 10179).

Our school librarian shared a simple rule about the "age" of the collection a few years ago. Books--even library books--shouldn't stay on the shelf forever. It's the same with retired Lego sets in my garage. They are worth nothing until converted to cash. It's the same with Beanie Babies or baseball cards or comic books, pork bellies, stocks... 

If someone is going to wait to buy a "new" UCS R2 because "just maybe there'll be a new release," he/she wasn't going to pay a premium in the first place.

I'm all in. Lego isn't going anywhere and one re-release doesn't change the whole game.

[Darth_Raichu]

If people start feeling that they can just wait for the re-release of R2, that won't help drive the price up...

Heh, I still could not believe LEGO chose to retire the UCS version of most iconic & beloved droid in SW history just before movie VII   Perhaps the re-hash of TS was due to the WV designers being pulled to work on better version of UCS R2 ?  

 

Obligatory disclaimer: I have no idea what LEGO is or is not planning 

[Chrno]

I am 100% confident we will @ least be able to buy from LEGO Shop at Home.

It is advertised in the official Lego catalogue, so it will be available at all retailers.

Page 29

[BrickLegacy]

I have a difficult time feeling sorry for someone that held onto a stack of 10199s.  Why not sell, free up space, and invest in something else?  So many opportunities to reinvest over the past 2 years.

I'm with trek.  I'm not planning on holding onto a pile of anything long-term (4+ years).  I might keep one for myself and one for my son, but the rest will be sold when I feel confident the market has peeked.  That can be impossible to predict, but that's part of the game.  At some point you have to realize the profit and move on.

Shame on LEGO for not innovating, though.  They should be embarrassed.  

[Miami Bomb Squad]

They're also retiring the UCS Xwing before the Movie. Both are Iconic.  
Hmmmmmmmmmmmm?

 

 

 

Edited August 19, 2015 by Miami Bomb Squad

[Sauromosis]

I am wondering if this is somehow related to "Force Awakens."  We have seen Lego have supply issues all year and I wonder how many designers and other resources they have had to shift over to Star Wars.  Maybe the "Winter" team has been compromised, resulting in a disappointing re-issue.  

Another lazy thing Lego did recently was changing the Tower Bridge box art and making more of those.  Perhaps they said "We just don't have time for a new, giant historical landmark set, let's just do a Tower Bridge re-issue."

Disney is force choking Lego.

[hepcatpunk]

I am wondering if this is somehow related to "Force Awakens."  We have seen Lego have supply issues all year and I wonder how many designers and other resources they have had to shift over to Star Wars.  Maybe the "Winter" team has been compromised, resulting in a disappointing re-issue.  

Another lazy thing Lego did recently was changing the Tower Bridge box art and making more of those.  Perhaps they said "We just don't have time for a new, giant historical landmark set, let's just do a Tower Bridge re-issue."

Disney is force choking Lego.

But the new X-Wing is pretty similar to the old, color change notwithstanding.  The MF is not that different.  TIE not that different.  You or I could have probably designed those.

[Sauromosis]

You are referring to September release sets before the movie even comes out.  I'm guessing there will be more to come.

And I'm not just talking about designers, but production machines and the workers in the factories.

[wsuskee]

Just be smart with what you hold long term and im sure you should be fine.  I am happy that my family gets to add this to the WV collection for a decent price.  Still kicking myself for spending so much more money on baseball cards than Lego when I was younger.  My mother would always keep track of what I spent my money on.  From 6 until about 16 I spent close to 7,000 grand on sports cards and just under a grand on Lego.  I collected cards from the late 80's to the late 90's and during that time they overproduced everything making them worth next to nothing.  I sold the entire lot of cards close to 100,000 of them for 500 bucks and I felt I did good considering what I had.  The Lego on the other hand went for more than twice what I paid and I got a lot of play out of those things.

[mfortunek]

Just be smart with what you hold long term and im sure you should be fine.  I am happy that my family gets to add this to the WV collection for a decent price.  Still kicking myself for spending so much more money on baseball cards than Lego when I was younger.  My mother would always keep track of what I spent my money on.  From 6 until about 16 I spent close to 7,000 grand on sports cards and just under a grand on Lego.  I collected cards from the late 80's to the late 90's and during that time they overproduced everything making them worth next to nothing.  I sold the entire lot of cards close to 100,000 of them for 500 bucks and I felt I did good considering what I had.  The Lego on the other hand went for more than twice what I paid and I got a lot of play out of those things.

100% spot on - exact same situation for me! Except my mom was smart enough to keep all my Legos. She thought her grandkids might someday play with them. My five year old LOVES them.

And I would honest to god burn my entire 1987 Topps baseball card set on a winter night because I was too lazy to walk 11 feet outside for more firewood. 

I cherished that set. It isn't worth $10.

[ravenb99]

Don't worry there is an easy way to fix this re-issue nonsense

The QFLL'ers are gonna buy the crap out of this set so its so short supplied that it goes up and over the value of the original

take that LEGO

 

 

[Darth_Raichu]

Don't worry there is an easy way to fix this re-issue nonsense

The QFLL'ers are gonna buy the crap out of this set so its so short supplied that it goes up and over the value of the original

take that LEGO

 

 

In other words, business as usual

[ravenb99]

In other words, business as usual

lol you got me

[Darth_Raichu]

I have a difficult time feeling sorry for someone that held onto a stack of 10199s.  Why not sell, free up space, and invest in something else?  So many opportunities to reinvest over the past 2 years.

I'm with trek.  I'm not planning on holding onto a pile of anything long-term (4+ years).  I might keep one for myself and one for my son, but the rest will be sold when I feel confident the market has peeked.  That can be impossible to predict, but that's part of the game.  At some point you have to realize the profit and move on.

Shame on LEGO for not innovating, though.  They should be embarrassed.  

If you do not mind me asking, when did you sell your stack of 10199s?  Just curious, since even though this thing was retired in late 2011, it was still available well into 2012 (this was pre-hoard ).  This is also a seasonal set, so the window to sell it for optimal $ was / is pretty limited. 

[Frank Brickowski]

Is Santa's Workshop coming back this fall?  History says yes.  Anybody disagree?  

If it is coming back, would the smart person sell now and then re-up in a couple months for long term holding?

The smart investor would start stocking up on winter sets only in their second (normally meaning last) year.

Edited August 19, 2015 by rfish

[wceagles]

i liked these theories from another forum:

"a designer simply mis-interpreted an instruction from up above. It should have been re-release 10179, not 10199"

or a more realistic theory:

"TLG was (planning on) killing off the WV line after Santa's workshop last year and it was revealed (as per the designer video of 10245) that "the (santa's) workshop would be a great to complete your winter village layout." Due to overwhelming feedback to keep the line going they needed something to kick out in time for this year holiday season. The production time to develop a set was too long so they jumped on a high demand previous set and now we are getting the toy shop."

[dcdfan]

 

or a more realistic theory:

"TLG was (planning on) killing off the WV line after Santa's workshop last year and it was revealed (as per the designer video of 10245) that "the (santa's) workshop would be a great to complete your winter village layout." Due to overwhelming feedback to keep the line going they needed something to kick out in time for this year holiday season. The production time to develop a set was too long so they jumped on a high demand previous set and now we are getting the toy shop."

Well, I have a 2015 Exclusives List from someone's post somewhere (I don't recall & it starts with Jan: 75069 Slave 1 & goes to October: 10249 Winter Toy Shop. So, either they were planning on making a brand new item (with the same title) or they were already planning on re-releasing this. Still very strange...

There also was a title (that we've been waiting on info for) without a number...

Edited August 19, 2015 by dcdfan

[Val-E]

Well, I have a 2015 Exclusives List from someone's post somewhere (I don't recall & it starts with Jan: 75069 Slave 1 & goes to October: 10249 Winter Toy Shop. So, either they were planning on making a brand new item (with the same title) or they were already planning on re-releasing this. Still very strange...

You´re right, clued up people had enough time to move on their 10199´s. Same now with Burj Khalifa.