jaisonline Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 The original poster Asked about sets. Plus the item needs to have had (or have a) retail price. Many promo sets and polybags are free with a specified purchase. Quote
Darth_Raichu Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 The original poster Asked about sets. Plus the item needs to have had (or have a) retail price. Many promo sets and polybags are free with a specified purchase. In that case, I will amend my answer by saying any set retiring starting 2014 forward will take 5+ years to get to 5x MSRP and my BS meter just cannot predict that far ahead Quote
fantomas007 Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 My opinion: the biggest chance to high percentage rise (5xRRP and more) have small sets - because if something has offcial price for example EUR 10, it is easy for many people to pay 60 or 70 for it. But it is hard to pay 5 x EUR 400 for SSD - it is EUR 2000 ! It is a price for UCS falcon, which is more iconic and from the age without many investors. Thatswhy my favorite is RI, which can reach EUR 100 - even now it is on 2xRRP. Other favorites: TH - it can reach very fast 2-3x RRP (faster than other sets, since it disappeared suddenly), but then the rise will be slow...but it is a hot favorite for 5xRRP (I agree with reasons from first page). The factor of sudden EOL is very strong + it is part of extremly popular modular serie! HH - very hot favorit - it has some advantages from TH - it contains original figures + it is EXTREMLY original - such similar set will never come back again! You can easy build a modular same or similar to TH, but not HH. The factor of presence of original figs is very important when we are talking about favorites to 5xRRP - because it limits possibilities to build such set from bricks bought from th bricklink. Strong results are expected also from VW (not 5xRRP, but 3xRRP is real), Fire Brigade, Tower Bridge. I dont believe to these candidates from this discussion: R2D2 - i dont believe to this set at all. It looks like duplo building, dont have figs, can be easy rebuild from bricklink. Tumbler - also I dont believe to this set as a favorite to extrem rise after EOL. Batman and other heroes sets are very limited to American market, since comics heroes are not so popular in Europe. In our shops are sets with batman, iron man, etc selling very poor. Also this set is very expensive (I cannot imagine how can somebody pay EUR 1000 for it). Several years ago there was much more iconic set - batmobile - but the rise of the price was very slow. Quote
trekgate502 Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 From the US Standpoint I cannot disagree more about R2 and the Tumbler. But that is the US and Europe is different. Also I find it interesting so many people love the VW T1 on both sides of the pond. On eBay it is a slow mover. I priced mine with free shipping below MSRP as I wanted out and into some other things I like better. It took a month for mine to sell even below MSRP during the Christmas season. Quote
Ciglione Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 My opinion: the biggest chance to high percentage rise (5xRRP and more) have small sets - because if something has offcial price for example EUR 10, it is easy for many people to pay 60 or 70 for it. But it is hard to pay 5 x EUR 400 for SSD - it is EUR 2000 ! It is a price for UCS falcon, which is more iconic and from the age without many investors. Thatswhy my favorite is RI, which can reach EUR 100 - even now it is on 2xRRP. Other favorites: TH - it can reach very fast 2-3x RRP (faster than other sets, since it disappeared suddenly), but then the rise will be slow...but it is a hot favorite for 5xRRP (I agree with reasons from first page). The factor of sudden EOL is very strong + it is part of extremly popular modular serie! HH - very hot favorit - it has some advantages from TH - it contains original figures + it is EXTREMLY original - such similar set will never come back again! You can easy build a modular same or similar to TH, but not HH. The factor of presence of original figs is very important when we are talking about favorites to 5xRRP - because it limits possibilities to build such set from bricks bought from th bricklink. Strong results are expected also from VW (not 5xRRP, but 3xRRP is real), Fire Brigade, Tower Bridge. I dont believe to these candidates from this discussion: R2D2 - i dont believe to this set at all. It looks like duplo building, dont have figs, can be easy rebuild from bricklink. Tumbler - also I dont believe to this set as a favorite to extrem rise after EOL. Batman and other heroes sets are very limited to American market, since comics heroes are not so popular in Europe. In our shops are sets with batman, iron man, etc selling very poor. Also this set is very expensive (I cannot imagine how can somebody pay EUR 1000 for it). Several years ago there was much more iconic set - batmobile - but the rise of the price was very slow. I agree with you fully except for the R2 and Super Heroes. R2 will do good. Just it has not yet fully disappeared from the shops. Super Heroes's popularity is on the rise in Europe. Especially after the Dark Knight Trilogy. We are flooded with new super heroes movies and series which are all very good. I believe it is better to stock up on those sets despite the fakes from China. Quote
Ciglione Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 From the US Standpoint I cannot disagree more about R2 and the Tumbler. But that is the US and Europe is different. Also I find it interesting so many people love the VW T1 on both sides of the pond. On eBay it is a slow mover. I priced mine with free shipping below MSRP as I wanted out and into some other things I like better. It took a month for mine to sell even below MSRP during the Christmas season. All depends on how long T1 will remain in production. Future prospects will shrink with every day this set stays unretired. Quote
Neosphinx Posted January 3, 2015 Posted January 3, 2015 I dont believe to these candidates from this discussion: R2D2 - i dont believe to this set at all. It looks like duplo building, dont have figs, can be easy rebuild from bricklink. Tumbler - also I dont believe to this set as a favorite to extrem rise after EOL. Batman and other heroes sets are very limited to American market, since comics heroes are not so popular in Europe. In our shops are sets with batman, iron man, etc selling very poor. Also this set is very expensive (I cannot imagine how can somebody pay EUR 1000 for it). Several years ago there was much more iconic set - batmobile - but the rise of the price was very slow. Batman has always been popular in Belgium. Superman less. Iron Man gained great popularity due to the good movies. Avengers and other superheroes are less known but I wouldn't let superheroes sets pass as investment if I were you. Some popular movies still coming out and it will sell for profit, no doubt in my mind about it. Quote
Lego-Alex Posted January 3, 2015 Posted January 3, 2015 Did the T1 becomes a high ebay price, if it will retired next days? Quote
Yellowtot Posted January 3, 2015 Posted January 3, 2015 5 x RRP is a tough nut to crack nowadays, but going off say the sets which retired in the last 12 months, I'd say (thinking outside the box) the Mine has a possibility, Golden dragon will most likely I mean it's already more than double RRP, TH due to the fact it caught everyone off guard, RI is kinda a given and maybe the first being so cheap and so easy to hit 5 x RRP compared to larger sets and wait for it......... friends rehearsal stage I know it's not technically gone yet but it basically is and I have great faith in this set. Best indicators will be next Jan when people who can't wait that long for some sort of return, have unloaded their sets and we can witness the aftermath on eBay/Amazon. This is all going off the UK/EU market. Quote
Neosphinx Posted January 3, 2015 Posted January 3, 2015 5 x RRP is a tough nut to crack nowadays, but going off say the sets which retired in the last 12 months, I'd say (thinking outside the box) the Mine has a possibility, Golden dragon will most likely I mean it's already more than double RRP, TH due to the fact it caught everyone off guard, RI is kinda a given and maybe the first being so cheap and so easy to hit 5 x RRP compared to larger sets and wait for it......... friends rehearsal stage I know it's not technically gone yet but it basically is and I have great faith in this set. Best indicators will be next Jan when people who can't wait that long for some sort of return, have unloaded their sets and we can witness the aftermath on eBay/Amazon. This is all going off the UK/EU market. You mean 4204-1 going 69.99 Quote
Val-E Posted January 3, 2015 Posted January 3, 2015 Maybe not, but 3 times RRP is a given - same as TH. Both are selling for double or near double RRP while being on sale at Lego Shop. When the retired label comes out prepare for take off. Quote
diablo2112 Posted January 12, 2015 Posted January 12, 2015 (edited) My sleeper pick: Birds (21301). Great little set, $45 MSRP. I can easily see this going to $200+, or higher if a series-2 gets released. Theme is very much AFOL, and future AFOL fans will want this, very much. It's been an instant sell-out at the stores, and stock is low. For the very reasons that many here overlook it, that gives it that much more of a chance to be non-hoarded and hence rare upon EOL. Edited January 12, 2015 by diablo2112 3 Quote
Frahugo Posted January 31, 2015 Posted January 31, 2015 I agree with Diablo2112. 21301 is a great set. I'm tempted to buy a few of them, like I did with the Rover. Fun to build, great display value. Quote
fixerdrew02 Posted February 4, 2015 Posted February 4, 2015 What about 75060 Slave 1 when it retires? Awesome looking set, UCS, and who doesn't love a little Boba? Maybe not x5, but I'd be happy with x3 MSRP. 1 Quote
Parisbrix Posted March 4, 2015 Posted March 4, 2015 What about Robie House? How will that do in your opinion? Quote
montreid Posted March 26, 2015 Posted March 26, 2015 Research Institute. Nearly got there on the first go around. With the second series to be approved and released and probably standardized into Lego group as the vingettes vs minifig series. .... x5 is easily striking distance. Plus storing RI is a lot easier than it was for Taj and Ult MF. -- sold my last ones in 2014--Taj was best large set ROI. Quote
redeemed763 Posted March 26, 2015 Posted March 26, 2015 I remember 5-10 years ago when sets would consistently hit 2x MSRP immediately after EOL, not it takes quite a while for many sets to do this. I think that putting 5x MSRP on the radar for a large exclusive set is a poor strategy these days. Looking at some of the star performers of the past 4 years, this isn't a realistic thing to shoot for.... 10210 Imperial Flagship is at 3.9x MSRP 10194 Emerald Night is at 4.3x MSRP 10212 Imperial Shuttle is at 2.3x MSRP 10222 Winter Village Post office is at 3x MSRP These are all sets that could be trending at well over 5x MSRP if they retired a few years before they did. However, seeing how they have retired 2-3 years ago and investment has grown even more popular since then, I would expect the returns going forward to be even slimmer. Right now, I am hoping for sets to hit 2x their MSRP if I was able to get them decently discounted, that way, I can hope to get roughly the MSRP of straight profit back, but this is a hard nut to crack across the board. Quote
Crustybeaver Posted March 26, 2015 Posted March 26, 2015 Super Star Destroyer, I can see this thing hitting the big time. Quote
Val-E Posted March 26, 2015 Posted March 26, 2015 (edited) Chi Lion Temple is already at more than 3xMSRP if German EBay data on the BP database is to be believed. I believe it is the only set officially retired in the last 6 months to have done that after retiring. Edited March 26, 2015 by valenciaeric Quote
Mjtruncale Posted May 17, 2015 Posted May 17, 2015 I'd say the Red Five X-Wing... Although not retired it's coming close.maybe even the millennium falcon, especially with the new movie coming out.I noticed the Wizard Battle, small little set has already hit 300% in a year.How long are you all keeping the Rover? Think it'll go up any more?Just curious, do most of ya'll just invest, or build and invest? Quote
Andrey Voronkov Posted June 1, 2015 Posted June 1, 2015 So, the guess about Town Hall was correct, right? It s more than 5 RRP now.What s about the MAERSK ship? It s retiring soon.http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Maersk-Line-Triple-E-10241?fromListing=listing Quote
dcdfan Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 So, the guess about Town Hall was correct, right? It s more than 5 RRP now.Welcome to Brickpickers. Town Hall was $199.99, so where are you seeing it @ $1 K? 1 Quote
Grolim Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 How about:http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=41500-114.5 times retail ain't bad for a 2014 releaseThere are at least 6 other sets from 2014 that have a current market value of over 5 times their retail price. I don't think any of them have been mentioned so far. Dem sleepers... Quote
Ciglione Posted June 2, 2015 Posted June 2, 2015 Welcome to Brickpickers. Town Hall was $199.99, so where are you seeing it @ $1 K?In a crystal ball. It will be near that price around Xmas!#70503Yes! Love this set! Sets like this are becoming scarcer and scarcer. Unfortunately. Quote
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