chipbee Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 The LEGO company is the largest toy maker in the world. There is still a lot of untapped fans not only in the US but around the world who might your stuff in the future. I have bought current market value for Green Grocer, Market Street, etc. There will be other adults like me who may want to buy HH, TH, SSD, or even an 6862 etc in the future and have the money to do so when they get hit with the Lego collecting bug! Of course back to the current question, I like limited productions sets like the Mars Rover going for 5X in the future as they were not available at the mass retailers like Walmart, Target, etc I agree. China consumers has yet to join in the fun. These chinese are serious serial speculators; they can even hoard salt and garlic. Quote
biniou Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 (edited) (...) it would be fun to speculate which of these sets will see the fastest price appreciation to the 5x RRP level. Ouch... x5 RRP is very unlikely for any set from these days, because there are so much much more investors in 2014 compared to 2006... So if we consider the recently retired sets (or "sold out" sets which may not come back) hmmm maybe the Research Institute I would say, for all the reasons we all know. And because it's way more easy and quick for a $20 set to reach $100 compared to a $200 set to reach $1000... WUT ??? It's back ? nevermind... I can imagine the SSD getting the X3 RRP badge but that's it. I don't see the the HH reach x5 RRP. I think it will top at x4 RRP (in about 5-6 years). Maybe the TH... but it will take a lot of time, something like 7 or 8 years... Edited December 3, 2014 by biniou Quote
Neosphinx Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 Based on people visiting my home. The Haunted House. It is the most popular set and even though the TH disapeared quickly, many people were 'stunned' that the HH went and didn't come back for halloween. It is part of a series, but you don't need the rest of the series to display it. Quote
Ciglione Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 (edited) If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be... the Tumbler Why? 1. Not easy to hoard 2. High pricepoint 3. Batman 4. Iconic and legendary vehicle 5. do I need to continue? Furthermore I think TH and HH will do good. SSD (wish I bought more!) is already doing good. Outsiders: ToO, R2-D2 and AA Just my 0.02 Edited December 3, 2014 by Ciglione Quote
Grynn Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 (edited) I think TH has the best chance, according to Economics 101. HH is an easy second - it's hard to predict how the demand stacks up vs. TH in the long run. Unlikely: SSD - it'll get there, but not nearly as fast as 10179 R2 - popular enough, but also fairly healthy supply-wise ToO - if it's gone now, maybe. otherwise, nope AA - might make it one day, never before the top of the list Tumbler - um, not retired. If it was, then sure. and the super dark-horses: HE - It's a train. A train no one wants... until it's gone... SOH - No one has any. See TH and HE comments. And, on the completely outside chance that Santa's Workshop doesn't come back again, it rockets to the top of the list... Edited December 3, 2014 by Grynn Quote
tractorboy Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 Yeah, I suspect it would take so long for any big set to hit 5xRRP these days, that it might make more sense to sell at 3xRRP and reinvest. But I'm still fairly new to this, so I don't know really. I'll probably keep one of my THs and SSDs indefinitely, just to have a stupidly expensive set in my collection, which would be nice. Quote
biniou Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be... the Tumbler Why? 1. Not easy to hoard 2. High pricepoint 3. Batman 4. Iconic and legendary vehicle 5. do I need to continue? Yes but what if it's no more exclusive in 2015, and becomes widely available (toys'r us and co.) for the next 3 years ? That's my biggest fear about this set (ok, "fear" is not the right word...). Quote
tractorboy Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 I think the Tumbler will do great, because irregardless of all the other stuff, bottom line is that it's just a fantastic Lego set. Quote
Ciglione Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 Yes but what if it's no more exclusive in 2015, and becomes widely available (toys'r us and co.) for the next 3 years ? That's my biggest fear about this set (ok, "fear" is not the right word...). It is all about timing... buy one every once in a while. Especially if there will be a sale. This will be a winner. Regardless its shelf life. Quote
glucapg Posted December 3, 2014 Posted December 3, 2014 Remember that Ed said that tumbler will be the best Sent from my XT1052 using Brickpicker mobile app Quote
Guest davewager78 Posted December 9, 2014 Posted December 9, 2014 I don't think any set of note I.e. Large set with high MRSP will hit 5x within any timescale that an investor should be holding it for. Better in my eyes to sell for 2x or 3x and have the cash to buy the next soon-to-retire sets, to sell them at 2x to 3x. I'd rather hit 2x in 3 cycles than keep the same money tied in for one cycle hoping for 5x. After all, it's about making the most money possible, right, not clinging on to a set forever. Plus I would say the more a set's value goes up, the worse the financial heartache if the box gets damaged, or it gets lost in transit Quote
Ciglione Posted December 9, 2014 Posted December 9, 2014 I don't think any set of note I.e. Large set with high MRSP will hit 5x within any timescale that an investor should be holding it for. Better in my eyes to sell for 2x or 3x and have the cash to buy the next soon-to-retire sets, to sell them at 2x to 3x. I'd rather hit 2x in 3 cycles than keep the same money tied in for one cycle hoping for 5x. After all, it's about making the most money possible, right, not clinging on to a set forever. Plus I would say the more a set's value goes up, the worse the financial heartache if the box gets damaged, or it gets lost in transit Makes sense what you write. Also the market for such high-priced sets will be thin. Quote
Guest davewager78 Posted December 9, 2014 Posted December 9, 2014 My view is that we should consider the price-time curve. This begins at time = 0, with the set at MRSP. While the set is in production, the only deviations should be a drop in price at a sale event, or a peak at an event such as Xmas. At EOL, the curve spikes upwards quite quickly, but is likely to begin to plateau in gradient after. The part of the curve I want to ride is either: (a) the time between just before EOL and the point approaching plateau OR ( the time between the last sale event (i.e. Item available at below MRSP), and the same plateau as above Continuing to hold items once they are in the slower growth phase years beyond EOL isn't part of my strategy. Perhaps I'm drifting off topic... Quote
Cashmoney-0 Posted December 27, 2014 Posted December 27, 2014 If there is one set that will reach 5 x RRP it will be... the Tumbler Why? 1. Not easy to hoard 2. High pricepoint 3. Batman 4. Iconic and legendary vehicle 5. do I need to continue? Furthermore I think TH and HH will do good. SSD (wish I bought more!) is already doing good. Outsiders: ToO, R2-D2 and AA Just my What has been the lowest price you guys have seen on the tumbler? Quote
justapilgrim Posted December 27, 2014 Posted December 27, 2014 Martian manhunter polybag Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-N910A using Brickpicker mobile app Quote
Guest brickcrazyhouse Posted December 28, 2014 Posted December 28, 2014 (edited) Mixels Series 1 was waiting for you to mention these gems Edited December 28, 2014 by brickcrazyhouse Quote
Lego-Alex Posted December 28, 2014 Posted December 28, 2014 I think - Town Hall - Research Institute - DeLorean - Fallingwater - probably Sidney Opera (Architecture) Quote
Guest davewager78 Posted January 1, 2015 Posted January 1, 2015 As a counter point, which sets have previously hit 5x RRP? Taj Mahal? UCS MF? Mainly interested in high price exclusives as answers. I don't think there are enough to justify the theory that there are going to be many more. As i've said before, waiting until 5x RRP seems an odd strategy to me anyway Quote
jaisonline Posted January 1, 2015 Posted January 1, 2015 As a counter point, which sets have previously hit 5x RRP? Taj Mahal? UCS MF? Mainly interested in high price exclusives as answers. I don't think there are enough to justify the theory that there are going to be many more. As i've said before, waiting until 5x RRP seems an odd strategy to me anyway Many in the past. Going from pretty much all the Batman 1 sets to many exclusives to The Zombies. I think in the modern day of Lego investing, 3x MSRP might be the new goal to achieve. I see only a couple of sets that have 5x potential and it could a while. Town Hall, RI (again) and , Haunted House (depending on the Scooby Doo version), If the Ghostbusters set retired early, I think that would hit $200 because of the popularity and upcoming movie. 1 Quote
Lego-Alex Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 I have 3 Town Hall (new, original sealed), is this a good investment for selling in one or two years? Quote
steelmelt Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 5X MSRP is a lot, I think maybe a $20 architecture set has the highest potential to meet that. But more likely it will be a set that flys under the radar. The sets that are hoarded will never reach 5x MSRP. There are way too many TH and FB out there for them to reach 5x MSRP anytime soon. Quote
Ciglione Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 I have 3 Town Hall (new, original sealed), is this a good investment for selling in one or two years? No... these are bad investments... but I will take them of your hands for RRP. So you can invest the money in something better. Just kidding... these are one of the best investments of 2014 in my book. Keep them for a rainy day. 2 Quote
Darth_Raichu Posted January 2, 2015 Posted January 2, 2015 Darth Revan polybag Assuming MSRP $5 (standard polybag price), it could be sold for $35 easy Quote
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