Minecraft 2014

[cladner]

So new sets are coming out in August with basically similar price points and piece counts as The Cave, Crafting box, The Farm and The Ender Dragon.  

Sort of uncharted territory but i have started accumulating a small stash of the cave and crafting box.  for some reason i expect these to go first though its hard to say when that might be.  

Its hard to believe they wouldn't last more than a year but also not sure they are going to expand the theme with 4 new sets and not chop one of the first wave.

[Jules_K]

I can't see retailers replenishing the 2014 sets once the new ones hit the shelves, at least not all of them anyway. The problem is I assume these sets are great sellers, so I really don't know which way lego is going to go with the 2014 sets.

[basler]

So, which of those 2014er sets is your investment favorite?

[cladner]

So, which of those 2014er sets is your investment favorite?

I think all the 2014 sets are going to fare well.

My personal ranking of the sets for investments are as follows:

#1 The Cave- enormously popular set.  Lead off set for the minifigure theme.  I just saw a kid walking out of walmart with one today. These are almost never on shelves.   I always take note when I see actual end users buying stuff.  On sale right now at 25% off at many retailers, use GC and rewards to boost your discount.  I have 50 The Caves and would love to have another 50.  I am optimistic giving the continuing growth of minecraft that this set will get to $75-80 within 15 months of EOL and possibly even quicker than that just because of inherent demand. Because of competition at this price point with the new set, part me thinks this is done soon.  still, The Cave is so popular its almost stupid to kill it too quick. i think when the first wave does get retired, this will be one of the first to disappear.

#2 Crafting Box - 8 different builds.  great reviews @ shop at home.  seems like it will be a must have and the type of set that people might want multiple copies of post EOL.  see this easily getting to $100-120 within a year of EOL.  i try to have 1 of these for every 4-5 caves.  Not sure that this one is going anywhere anytime soon - price point is unique and seems like it could be around for another year my gut tells me.

#3 The Mine - flagship largest set.  hard to know how well it will do but if it retires early 2.5x MSRP is not an unreasonable goal but I would have at least 15 Caves for everyone 1 Mine.  this one has mediocre demand because of its price and is in stock everywhere even with discounts.  i don't think this one is going anywhere anytime soon.  no replacement on the horizon.

#4 #5The Farm and The First Night - both of these sets are about equal in my mind - I would have 1 of each for every 5 caves I have.  I'm not sure which of these will get the axe but there are similar piece count/price point sets in the 2015 wave coming out so wouldn't be shocked that these get the axe.  probably these will have slightly better medium term performance compared to the Mine, especially if the Mine lingers.

3-5 are about the same prospects to me - they will do well post EOL.

#6 Ender Dragon - this is the real standout loser of the series.  you could still get this set all throughout the holiday season last year at msrp.  its been discounted throughout its life and still is a sales loser if you look at the brickpicker stats.  I would not touch this set for anything more than $35-40.  you can take the contrarian play but past performance and demand predicts this will be the loser of the first wave.  your better off putting your money in more Caves than this set.

 

Edited July 25, 2015 by cladner

[Quacs]

I think all the 2014 sets are going to fare well.

My personal ranking of the sets for investments are as follows:

#1 The Cave- enormously popular set.  Lead off set for the minifigure theme.  I just saw a kid walking out of walmart with one today. These are almost never on shelves.   I always take note when I see actual end users buying stuff.  On sale right now at 25% off at many retailers, use GC and rewards to boost your discount.  I have 50 The Caves and would love to have another 50.  I am optimistic giving the continuing growth of minecraft that this set will get to $75-80 within 15 months of EOL and possibly even quicker than that just because of inherent demand. Because of competition at this price point with the new set, part me thinks this is done soon.  still, The Cave is so popular its almost stupid to kill it too quick. i think when the first wave does get retired, this will be one of the first to disappear.

#2 Crafting Box - 8 different builds.  great reviews @ shop at home.  seems like it will be a must have and the type of set that people might want multiple copies of post EOL.  see this easily getting to $100-120 within a year of EOL.  i try to have 1 of these for every 4-5 caves.  Not sure that this one is going anywhere anytime soon - price point is unique and seems like it could be around for another year my gut tells me.

#3 The Mine - flagship largest set.  hard to know how well it will do but if it retires early 2.5x MSRP is not an unreasonable goal but I would have at least 15 Caves for everyone 1 Mine.  this one has mediocre demand because of its price and is in stock everywhere even with discounts.  i don't think this one is going anywhere anytime soon.  no replacement on the horizon.

#4 #5The Farm and The First Night - both of these sets are about equal in my mind - I would have 1 of each for every 5 caves I have.  I'm not sure which of these will get the axe but there are similar piece count/price point sets in the 2015 wave coming out so wouldn't be shocked that these get the axe.  probably these will have slightly better medium term performance compared to the Mine, especially if the Mine lingers.

3-5 are about the same prospects to me - they will do well post EOL.

#6 Ender Dragon - this is the real standout loser of the series.  you could still get this set all throughout the holiday season last year at msrp.  its been discounted throughout its life and still is a sales loser if you look at the brickpicker stats.  I would not touch this set for anything more than $35-40.  you can take the contrarian play but past performance and demand predicts this will be the loser of the first wave.  your better off putting your money in more Caves than this set.

 

Interesting - I've noticed the Ender Dragon has been a great set to part out.  Every part sells well and at high prices.  Diamond armor Steve, the dragon and the landscape are especially fast sellers for very good money.

[basler]

Good summary, thanks! 

[Jules_K]

Rumours are of a 3rd wave of sets to be released in 2016. I think this can only mean good things for the 1st wave, which are more than likely going to be retiring in the next 3 months.

[justapilgrim]

They are probably already retired. Meaning not making any more, just waiting for current stock to dry up

[Brickerbrack]

I am starting to collect some of the first wave of Minecraft sets now that they can be found for a discount.  Hoping these will do well long term.

[cladner]

Minecraft Crafting Box is SOLD OUT at  USA LEGO Shop at Home  - the second set from this theme to retire.

I think this set is also a Black Friday special at Target so this will be perfect timing to load up.

Edited November 22, 2016 by cladner

[cladner]

First Night and The Farm have finally gone to Call 2 check @ US LEGO Shop at Home

Edited December 18, 2016 by cladner

[Phil B]

1 minute ago, cladner said:

First Night and The Farm have finally gone to Call 2 check @ US LEGO Shop at Home

Meanwhile, 21118 The Mine has come down to the last 20 sellers on US EBay, and prices have breached $170 shipped. Yay!

[iahawks550]

I forgot I had a stack of 21118 from the B&N blowout. Funny thing is, I had serious buyers remorse at 50% on those. Glad I was too lazy to return them.

[cladner]

I know everyone got them for 50% off, but 1.54x MSRP this point post EOL is disappointing. yeah - its 3x the buyin which is an easy double your money post fees and shipping.  I use MSRP as the benchmark to judge a sets performance.  by that benchmark, Mine is meh.  Everyone and their brother has or had a few of these in their closet after Target, Walmart, BN cleared them which has hindered performance .  I think there is robust demand for this set and that once supply is really knocked down and the seller's market begins it could get to $250 pretty quickly.

[Phil B]

2 minutes ago, cladner said:

I know everyone got them for 50% off, but 1.54x MSRP this point post EOL is disappointing. yeah - its 3x the buyin which is an easy double your money post fees and shipping.  I use MSRP as the benchmark to judge a sets performance.  by that benchmark, Mine is meh.  Everyone and their brother has or had a few of these in their closet after Target, Walmart, BN cleared them which has hindered performance .  I think there is robust demand for this set and that once supply is really knocked down and the seller's market begins it could get to $250 pretty quickly.

If Europe is anything to go by, 21118 is selling for close to 200 EUR already there, so you might be right (I sure hope you are, still have some left ).

[grabbitfast]

having no problems selling off my Ender Dragons at 100 per cent profit.

Has any one new ideas on upcoming retirements 21121,21122, etc.

[cladner]

The Cave is still at call to check now for a week US LEGO Shop at Home but amazon.com is finally OOS and 3rd party only . 

shockingly only 73 sellers. overall toys and games sales rank of 309 and overall building sets #19 but for most of the last 2 years has been the top rated licensed theme set only topped by yellow buckets and the occasional new release . 

lowest prime price is already 2x my buyin.  this thing will be $50 in no time at all.

 

Edited November 23, 2017 by cladner

[legopocalypse]

On 7/25/2015 at 2:29 PM, cladner said:

I think all the 2014 sets are going to fare well.

My personal ranking of the sets for investments are as follows:

#1 The Cave- enormously popular set.  Lead off set for the minifigure theme.  I just saw a kid walking out of walmart with one today. These are almost never on shelves.   I always take note when I see actual end users buying stuff.  On sale right now at 25% off at many retailers, use GC and rewards to boost your discount.  I have 50 The Caves and would love to have another 50.  I am optimistic giving the continuing growth of minecraft that this set will get to $75-80 within 15 months of EOL and possibly even quicker than that just because of inherent demand. Because of competition at this price point with the new set, part me thinks this is done soon.  still, The Cave is so popular its almost stupid to kill it too quick. i think when the first wave does get retired, this will be one of the first to disappear.

#2 Crafting Box - 8 different builds.  great reviews @ shop at home.  seems like it will be a must have and the type of set that people might want multiple copies of post EOL.  see this easily getting to $100-120 within a year of EOL.  i try to have 1 of these for every 4-5 caves.  Not sure that this one is going anywhere anytime soon - price point is unique and seems like it could be around for another year my gut tells me.

#3 The Mine - flagship largest set.  hard to know how well it will do but if it retires early 2.5x MSRP is not an unreasonable goal but I would have at least 15 Caves for everyone 1 Mine.  this one has mediocre demand because of its price and is in stock everywhere even with discounts.  i don't think this one is going anywhere anytime soon.  no replacement on the horizon.

#4 #5The Farm and The First Night - both of these sets are about equal in my mind - I would have 1 of each for every 5 caves I have.  I'm not sure which of these will get the axe but there are similar piece count/price point sets in the 2015 wave coming out so wouldn't be shocked that these get the axe.  probably these will have slightly better medium term performance compared to the Mine, especially if the Mine lingers.

3-5 are about the same prospects to me - they will do well post EOL.

#6 Ender Dragon - this is the real standout loser of the series.  you could still get this set all throughout the holiday season last year at msrp.  its been discounted throughout its life and still is a sales loser if you look at the brickpicker stats.  I would not touch this set for anything more than $35-40.  you can take the contrarian play but past performance and demand predicts this will be the loser of the first wave.  your better off putting your money in more Caves than this set.

 

Ender Dragon has been a great performer already 2x MSRP and most of us have 3x-4x our buy in with the sales it had on it. Glad I went deep on them.

Edited November 23, 2017 by legopocalypse

[cladner]

28 minutes ago, legopocalypse said:

Ender Dragon has been a great performer already 2x MSRP and most of us have 3x-4x our buy in with the sales it had on it. Glad I went deep on then.

yeah - that quote was from 2015.  i revised my opinion on the set but still have limited number of ender dragons with a $50 buyin wish I had more.  

i went bat-sc on the farm and cave and neither of those ended up retiring last year so i've been working on my dust collection.

Ender Dragon and First Night are both hitting 2x MSRP and the Mine is just about there too which bodes well for this theme.

it will be interesting to see how the other 2014 minecraft sets that had an extra year of production end up doingv - if they can catch up quickly or whether the extra year of production will lead to expected oversupply, as well as how the short-lived sets from 2017 will do.  very surprised there aren't 100+ sellers of the cave on amazon  but that might change soon.

 

Edited November 23, 2017 by cladner