Buying Schedule

[Raykong]

This month I will surpass 600 sets in all. Here are some photos...

I am so envious of the space some people have! thanks for sharing the pics

[newbie77]

 

This month I will surpass 600 sets in all. Here are some photos...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

great collection.

 

i am sure you have shelves hidden from these

 

just like fellow BP'ers has suggested some shelves or better stacking will help you keep those boxes in mint condition.

 

we all learn from each other so i hope that posting picture did get you some good suggestions.

[lego rules]

 

This month I will surpass 600 sets in all. Here are some photos...

 

 

 

 

 

Only one fire brigade?

 

[KShine]

I must say that the multitude of Mini-Mazers out there is concerning.

 

So many buyers, buying such high quantities of just a few select sets that don't really sell in very high quantities sounds like trouble.

[justapilgrim]

xmen set with sentinel, wolverine storm and magneto mini figs

I think the sentinel is underwhelming, but could be a while for another storm and magneto

[redcell]

I must say that the multitude of Mini-Mazers out there is concerning.

 

So many buyers, buying such high quantities of just a few select sets that don't really sell in very high quantities sounds like trouble.

 

Indeed.  It's always good to keep in mind the disclaimer "past performance does not guarantee future success."  The unfortunate fact that many here will find out in the not too distant future is that the performance of sets currently on the secondary market post-EOL does not provide any indicator of what the currently-available sets will do post-EOL.  Although the secondary market demand for Lego sets is robust, it is not bottomless and prices tend to stagnate when a set is held in large quantities by a large number of sellers.  Everyone who is dreaming of future returns on par with the current performance of exclusives that have already retired should expect much slimmer margins in the future simply because there is a substantially greater amount of capital being allocated to modulars than there has been in the past.    

Edited October 11, 2014 by Pacific493

[newbie77]

Indeed.  It's always good to keep in mind the disclaimer "past performance does not guarantee future success."  The unfortunate fact that many here will find out in the not too distant future is that the performance of sets currently on the secondary market post-EOL does not provide any indicator of what the currently-available sets will do post-EOL.  Although the secondary market demand for Lego sets is robust, it is not bottomless and prices tend to stagnate when a set is held in large quantities by a large number of sellers.  Everyone who is dreaming of future returns on par with the current performance of FB or GE should expect much slimmer margins in the future simply because there is a substantially greater amount of capital being allocated to modulars than there has been in the past.    

well articulated.

[redcell]

I will only accumulate 30-50 of the 10 sets I choose annually. Thus, I will never have 100 of a single set, only a maximum of 50.  As I ramp up 300-500 sets annually, I will at some point come into the cycle of selling those that have hit the targeted ROI. I think I can pretty easily sustain the sale of 300-500 sets annually.

 

I'm curious whether you have experience selling sets at the price points that you are targeting. 

[LegoManiacc]

^he did say he's aiming for 30% annual returns, I think that's pretty realistic. I do certainly agree with a lot of your points you've expressed though...downward margins will continue!

[redcell]

If he's shooting for 30% margins, that's a somewhat realistic goal.  However, I question the wisdom in laying out one's strategy so clearly on this website.  I know that there are others that do so, but all such posts are based on the assumption that the secondary market is deep enough to absorb all of the sets that will be stockpiled by those who copy that strategy while leaving enough room for the original poster to continue executing on the strategy.  Personally, I wouldn't be (and am not) so upfront about what I'm doing because, although it is certainly neighborly and considerate, it does little but foster additional competition, which ultimately undermines the viability of the strategy.  

[newbie77]

it might be possible to get 30% annual return under certain circumstances for some of the sets "for smaller numbers" (star has to align perfectly for this) but i doubt it can be doable in "large number of same set i.e. 50".

 

if you look @ the sales of FB (as an example) http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=10197-1

from feb till august its average of 90 sets/month only. i can pretty much say without doubt that recent numbers are going to pull in this average to be lower.

 

even having 50sets of FB that's like approx. 1/24 of annual sales @ ebay i.e. you are controlling more than 5% of the sales of an item in a year.  its going to be hard to get 30% annual return under those conditions. to elaborate more

 

FB was introduced in 2009; bulk of its return came after/near retirement.

 

below would be what one have to make for their investment to acquire 30% annual return.

 

Jan 2009: $149.99

Jan 2010: $149.99 $194.99(jan 2009 investment)

Jan 2011: $149.99 $194.99(jan 2010 investment) $253.48(jan 2009 investment)

Jan 2012: $149.99 $194.99(jan 2011 investment) $253.48(jan 2010 investment) $329.53(jan 2009 investment)

Jan 2013: $149.99 $194.99(jan 2012 investment) $253.48(jan 2011 investment) $329.53(jan 2010 investment) $428.39(jan 2009 investment)

Jan 2014: $239.99 $194.99(jan 2013 investment) $253.48(jan 2012 investment) $329.53(jan 2011 investment) $428.39(jan 2010 investment) $556.90(jan 2009 investment)

 

now to net those numbers i have mentioned

for $194.99 you have to sell for $258

for $253.48 you have to sell for $321

for $329.53 you have to sell for $410

for $428.39 you have to sell for $527

for $556.90 you have to sell for $678

 

as demonstrated above there is very narrow window when its possible and how. but again I DONOT THINK it can be done for large quantity.

Edited October 11, 2014 by newbie77

[speedpro50]

I'm curious whether you have experience selling sets at the price points that you are targeting. 

 

Yes, this year's sales have exceeding my expectations.

[newbie77]

Yes, this year's sales have exceeding my expectations.

if you don't mind disclosing, how many sales have you completed in terms of exclusives. and namely,.

 

Haunted House

Fire Brigade

Town Hall

Grand Emporium

SSD

Edited October 11, 2014 by newbie77

[Guest TabbyBoy]

I have over 600 sets but, they're all in outer boxes from SaH or Amazon and nothing special to look at. However a colleague bought 99x HH before the limit was reduced to 5 and he has no other set - way to go!

My buying schedule up until now has been a disaster. If I could start again, I'd just buy one each of HH, PS, 3E, SC, VWC, TB every month from alternating sources.

I'm hoping that my big sets will raise enough in time for me to donate my 300+ worthless CITY sets to local schools and charities. I'd rather give them away than face a tight-arsed demanding buyer who expects a perfect diamonte gold plated box over a crap CITY set.

[Young_Gun21]

I have over 600 sets but, they're all in outer boxes from SaH or Amazon and nothing special to look at. However a colleague bought 99x HH before the limit was reduced to 5 and he has no other set - way to go!

My buying schedule up until now has been a disaster. If I could start again, I'd just buy one each of HH, PS, 3E, SC, VWC, TB every month from alternating sources.

I'm hoping that my big sets will raise enough in time for me to donate my 300+ worthless CITY sets to local schools and charities. I'd rather give them away than face a tight-arsed demanding buyer who expects a perfect diamonte gold plated box over a crap CITY set.

He chose the right set to buy 99 of. That's awesome.

[Alpinemaps]

My buying schedule up until now has been a disaster. If I could start again, I'd just buy one each of HH, PS, 3E, SC, VWC, TB every month from alternating sources.

 

 

So start over!

 

To a degree, that's what I'm doing.  I've been doing this for nearly two years now.  I've learned a lot, and I've got a *lot* more to learn.  But I made similar mistakes as you - buying sets that just will never appreciate to anywhere that I'd really rather be.  I've got a garage full of sets that are soaking up my money right now. 

 

I am gradually shift my focus from buying worthless city sets at 30% off (because they are on sale!), and really starting to understand where the better returns are in this game.  I don't think I'm going to "lose" money in this game; at least, not take a soaking.  I'm diversified enough to not have a bunch of money sunk into money losers.  That doesn't mean I may do any better than break even, but I'm not going to take a soaking.

 

So, I am gradually trying to liquidate a good portion of my investment, and get rid of the duds.  Free up some cash, so I can start investing much more wisely.  I hope a year from now, I will be one of those that will never feel the pain of a sudden "in/out of stock," because I'll be amassing what I need long before I have to worry about that.

 

Don't worry, you'll get there.  No need to donate.  Put the time in to selling the stuff, get some capital back, and shift your focus.