brickelements Posted October 8, 2014 Share Posted October 8, 2014 Howdy folks, I have been recently strapped for capital as many opportunities have come recently. Keep the info below to myself or share? Hmm. It is not gospel and it is only what I intend to do as I try to get more structure in my acquisitions. Here goes for some of the bigger sets. Feel free to comment, add your own, etc Past history in this series has shown me this is its second holiday season and if this line-up remains consistent it will the last time to buy this at retail. 10211 GE - Probably EOL 10214 Tower Bridge - still perplexed on this one. Have 4 would like at least 10...it is out of any other sets range I am trying to relate it too... Buy small amounts when 2x or 3x VIP points. 10218 Petshop - Wait till mid winter. If GE is indeed retiring I cannot see this disappearing at the exact same time. 10220 T1 Camper - I have already started to accumulate with 2x VIP and poly bag. Makes this set cheap. not sure what set to relate this too either as far as EOL goes. 10223 Joust (have 9) but I am afraid this will be a slow riser just like 10193. This is related to the previous castle theme just like MMV was when it was out. 10224 - OOS many places but I heard from a Lego employee the modular's will go in order, wink 10225 R2 - Start accumulate in late NOV 10226 Sopwith Camel Probably EOL 10227 B Wing EOL (EOL before R2) 10228 HH Probably EOL 10229 EOL 10230 EOL 10231 EOL 10232 Palace Cinema begin accumulating spring of 2016 unless something changes 10233 Horizon Express - Not sure on this one buy when discounts x2 VIP and polys are avail - treat this like a city train, Emerald Night or more like the Maersk train? 10234 Sydney Opera House one of my sleeper sets, higher price per piece but there are also a lot of larger pieces in this set. Look at how ordinary Taj Mahal was for types of pieces. This set is easily recognizable. I believe it will do well. Problem I have: will this follow Tower Bridge production time 4 years or more??? 10235 Winter Village Market - Buy as many as I can before the end of NOV. If I can pair with other discounts great. I take 10229 as an example...I waited on this one till this fall having only 1 on hand until recently...if this follows 10229's timeline it should be an easy 60-80% gain by next Christmas. That is well ahead on my normal annual appreciation rate. I can live with that. 10236 Ewok Village have zero...no idea on this one. 10237 Tower or Orthanc I should probably be accumulating this now. Have Zero. 10240 I will start buying this next May, hoping for a May 4th deal. 10241 Maersk 3x EEE will looking into it Feb- March 2015 10242 Mini Cooper - will this follow the T1 production timeline? If it does there is a lot time for this one. 10243 Parisian Restaurant One of my fav modulars (have 1) from a trade (thanks) will end up with 10+ on this one. No hurry though 10244 Mixer, not a lot of love for this set, had it included the Power Functions I would like it more...but I will be buying this one early summer 2015. Impressive when built, nice engineering when it is stored away. SLEEPER. 10245 Can't say enough about this set...buy now, buy more next year buy anytime there is any give away. (JMO) If it follows the "pattern" it may vanish late winter after Christmas but return late summer or next fall. Anyway other than other non-10xxx sets this has been fun to think about and post. Take it leave it, I am no authority on the matter. This is how I feel about the sets today. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justapilgrim Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 I'm still trying to figure out the next wolverine chopper that doubles quick and no one is stocking up on Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minicoopers11 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Here's my feelings on what and when to buy. I just deleted EOL stuff. 10214 Tower Bridge - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 10218 Petshop - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 10220 T1 Camper - buy up to your planned limit now. 10223 Joust - buy at least one. Avoiding investment here. I love Castle and Kingdoms, but it seems to just not get much love from aftermarket buyers. 10224 Town Hall - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next two years. 10225 R2 - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next two years. 10226 Sopwith Camel - buy up to your planned limit now. 10228 Haunted House - buy up to your planned limit now. 10232 Palace Cinema - wait to buy for at least one more year, then buy up to your planned limit over the next two years. 10233 Horizon Express - buy at least one. I would buy a modest amount for investment in 1 year. 10234 Sydney Opera House - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 10235 Winter Village Market - buy at least one. I'm passing on this one, gut feeling. 10236 Ewok Village have zero - buy at least one. Wait 1 more year then buy up to your planned limit over the next 2 years. 10237 Tower or Orthanc - buy up to your planned limit now. 10240 Red Five X-wing - buy at least one. I'm passing on this one as well, gut feeling. 10241 Maersk 3x EEE - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 10242 Mini Cooper - wait 1 year, then buy up to your planned limit over the next 1-2 years. 10243 Parisian Restaurant - wait 2 years, then buy up to your planned limit over the next 1-2 years. 10244 Mixer - buy at least one. Passing for investment. 10245 Santa's Workshop - buy at least one. Buy up to your planned limit over the next year. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickolodon Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Nice post, 5+ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speedpro50 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 As I have slowly matured as a LEGO investor, I plan to buy approximately 10 LEGO sets each year (most of them will be and are exclusives). These will be sets in which I have the most confidence will do well post-EOL. I have to keep in mind my two storage buildings (10'x15') and the somewhat limited space available, all the more so since I plan to hold these sets for 1-5 years before selling them. Of the 10 sets each year, I plan to acquire between 30-50 of each one. I will do this in various spurts throughout the year as I have the downtime to spend on research / buying. Certainly Q4 of each year will be one of those annual spurts. This will have me acquiring in the neighborhood of 400 sets annually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supergtp1 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 (edited) As I have slowly matured as a LEGO investor, I plan to buy approximately 10 LEGO sets each year (most of them will be and are exclusives). These will be sets in which I have the most confidence will do well post-EOL. I have to keep in mind my two storage buildings (10'x15') and the somewhat limited space available, all the more so since I plan to hold these sets for 1-5 years before selling them. Of the 10 sets each year, I plan to acquire between 30-50 of each one. I will do this in various spurts throughout the year as I have the downtime to spend on research / buying. Certainly Q4 of each year will be one of those annual spurts. This will have me acquiring in the neighborhood of 400 sets annually.whoa exclusives? Talking spending an easy $40,000-$60,000+! Edited October 9, 2014 by supergtp1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kenchu2000 Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 As I have slowly matured as a LEGO investor, I plan to buy approximately 10 LEGO sets each year (most of them will be and are exclusives). These will be sets in which I have the most confidence will do well post-EOL. I have to keep in mind my two storage buildings (10'x15') and the somewhat limited space available, all the more so since I plan to hold these sets for 1-5 years before selling them. Of the 10 sets each year, I plan to acquire between 30-50 of each one. I will do this in various spurts throughout the year as I have the downtime to spend on research / buying. Certainly Q4 of each year will be one of those annual spurts. This will have me acquiring in the neighborhood of 400 sets annually. Since you have that much funding to begin with, have you considered buying up a property as investment? I think it's more stable and less stressful. Just a thought. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emazers Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 One Exclusive I am not buying is the Joust, Mostly all the others will make you money. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 Since you have that much funding to begin with, have you considered buying up a property as investment? I think it's more stable and less stressful. Just a thought. ????? Where have you been for the last 6 years. Not meant in a negative way. Compare the 2008 retired exclusive sets through 2013 and then measure against an average commercial or residential space ro benchmark. Assuming no leverage of any kind. I could say which one wins, but I will keep that secret. Again no disrespect but LEGO investing is not a poor mans game. Real estate has its place that is for sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanky Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 As I have slowly matured as a LEGO investor, I plan to buy approximately 10 LEGO sets each year (most of them will be and are exclusives). These will be sets in which I have the most confidence will do well post-EOL. I have to keep in mind my two storage buildings (10'x15') and the somewhat limited space available, all the more so since I plan to hold these sets for 1-5 years before selling them. Of the 10 sets each year, I plan to acquire between 30-50 of each one. I will do this in various spurts throughout the year as I have the downtime to spend on research / buying. Certainly Q4 of each year will be one of those annual spurts. This will have me acquiring in the neighborhood of 400 sets annually. What is your unwind strategy? Looking at the BP data it appears that approximately 210 NIB Green Grocers were sold on eBay in the past year. If you had stockpiled 50 Green Grocers per year for two years while they were in-print, you would now be looking at unloading 100 sets. That quantity, if sold on eBay in a single year, would represent 50% of this year's total sales volume. You've done the math that tells you to acquire 400 sets per year. How many sets per year does the math say you will be selling in 2015? 2016? 2017? 2018? At some point it looks like you plan to sell 400 sets per year, are you prepared to market, sell, package, ship , and support that volume of product? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickolodon Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 ...just one per day, doable.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickolodon Posted October 9, 2014 Share Posted October 9, 2014 One Exclusive I am not buying is the Joust, Mostly all the others will make you money. I do not agree with this...already 150.00 @ebay....big ????? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emazers Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 You are better off Buying 5 Batman Ayslums then 8 Joust, you will make alot more money, In My case I will have 40 Batman Ayslum instead of 50 Joust, The Batman Ayslum will bring big money down the road. Ed 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sadowsk1 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 You knew a number was going to be thrown out there at some point. Brilliant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speedpro50 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Since you have that much funding to begin with, have you considered buying up a property as investment? I think it's more stable and less stressful. Just a thought. I do invest in commercial real estate as well. LEGO can produce much better returns if one is willing to put in the work. LEGO is also a bit more liquid than real estate. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speedpro50 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 What is your unwind strategy? Looking at the BP data it appears that approximately 210 NIB Green Grocers were sold on eBay in the past year. If you had stockpiled 50 Green Grocers per year for two years while they were in-print, you would now be looking at unloading 100 sets. That quantity, if sold on eBay in a single year, would represent 50% of this year's total sales volume. You've done the math that tells you to acquire 400 sets per year. How many sets per year does the math say you will be selling in 2015? 2016? 2017? 2018? At some point it looks like you plan to sell 400 sets per year, are you prepared to market, sell, package, ship , and support that volume of product? I will only accumulate 30-50 of the 10 sets I choose annually. Thus, I will never have 100 of a single set, only a maximum of 50. As I ramp up 300-500 sets annually, I will at some point come into the cycle of selling those that have hit the targeted ROI. I think I can pretty easily sustain the sale of 300-500 sets annually. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KShine Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I do invest in commercial real estate as well. LEGO can produce much better returns if one is willing to put in the work. LEGO is also a bit more liquid than real estate. Selling a LEGO set is easier than selling a house, but good luck trying to sell 200k worth of LEGO sets before you sell 1 house. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speedpro50 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Selling a LEGO set is easier than selling a house, but good luck trying to sell 200k worth of LEGO sets before you sell 1 house. I am not selling houses. I am diversifying my investment portfolio to include both real estate and LEGO however. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young_Gun21 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I am not selling houses. I am diversifying my investment portfolio to include both real estate and LEGO however.Portfolio of LEGO and real estate. That's a new combo. ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
newbie77 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I will only accumulate 30-50 of the 10 sets I choose annually. Thus, I will never have 100 of a single set, only a maximum of 50. As I ramp up 300-500 sets annually, I will at some point come into the cycle of selling those that have hit the targeted ROI. I think I can pretty easily sustain the sale of 300-500 sets annually. we have a saying in the BP'er... picture or else it didn't happen. when you have accumulated lets say 500 sets upload the image and we will all be admiring your collection. till then ..... I do not agree with this...already 150.00 @ebay....big ????? there must be a reason why some sets are still available when all the other contemporary are gone. either its a best seller or its a dog . so watch out .. it could have been the best seller with lot of demand like DS or it may also have a big sign saying "STAY AWAY OR ELSE YOU'LL LOSE YOUR SHIRT AND INNERWEAR" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
speedpro50 Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 we have a saying in the BP'er... picture or else it didn't happen. when you have accumulated lets say 500 sets upload the image and we will all be admiring your collection. till then ..... This month I will surpass 600 sets in all. Here are some photos... 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 Man I would get some edsals shelves if I was you. Wal-mart had a great deal on them not to long ago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scuttfarkas Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 At the least...invest in Cinder Blocks and 2X10s and get those bad boys off that concrete. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregpj Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 This month I will surpass 600 sets in all. Here are some photos... Looking good, but you didn't need to feed the trolls. I don't know why people are harping on you for sharing your strategy, but good on your for having one. Looks to me like you've made some excellent choices. Now, I must agree that you should either be putting those sets on shelves or at least using a criss-cross pattern from one layer to the next! Oh wait, I do know why they're trolling... because the internet makes everyone's hammer bigger. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Raykong Posted October 10, 2014 Share Posted October 10, 2014 I'm still trying to figure out the next wolverine chopper that doubles quick and no one is stocking up on xmen set with sentinel, wolverine storm and magneto mini figs Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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