Architecture - general discussion

[donbee]

@fossilrock
That's what I was wondering.
I don't know when these sets "retired" exactly. Before my time. It's only recently that I've found Barnes and BAM empty of these sets. So I feel like it's finally sold out, and will finally start appreciating. If that is the case, then we should be able to figure out if prices/sales were low because lack of demand or because of over supply.

I'm hoping for over supply, so we'll see an increase in demand and price in the next six months.

But yeah, the imperial hotel has really dampened my enthusiasm with the potential of this line. I'd still rather buy a $50 architecture set at 20%+ off than a $50 SW at 50% or $50 SH at 55+%
But $100 or more set...

[fossilrock]

Last years Architecture retirees are all mostly busts (Brandenberg, Imperial Hotel, VS, UN Building, Space Needle, Pisa, etc).  While those might hit 2x, and some are close, or over, I don't see many of those going to 3x.  Many of them are actually money losers, once you add in fees.  

I also don't see IH following in Fallingwaters footsteps, or the VS to all the sudden grow like Farnsworth House did....   

Last years retirees have some better more iconic landmarks like the White House, and Big Ben, and while I think both are good to have in your lego portfolio, I don't think either will live up to the potential of how things were in this theme 2 to 4 years ago.  Those days are gone.  The rehashes combined with them moving towards the skyline theme has sort of taken the sails out of this theme.  

Personally, I was a big architecture fan, and at one point had all the sets up to the skyline theme.  It was the move towards the skyline series that has sort of whacked the sails for me.  I just don't find those sets very interesting and they seem like "mini builds" that you would get in an advent calendar, or like one of those polybags, and they throw a few of those together to make a set.  They just feel out of place.  So, once they started going down that road, that was the point where I decided enough was enough with this theme and i'm no longer going to be a completionist.  I'll buy a few of them here and there when it's something interesting..  The US Capitol building is one such example, but those are now few and far between.

[Val-E]

Supply and demand rules. A niche theme that everyone has bought into gets killed in a heartbeat and only the few sets that have crossover demand can hope to appreciate nicely.

We can even see that the value of older sets has stagnated or ticked downwards - Guggenheim and BK 1.0, little Sydney and Fallingwater are examples. Only the super rare non remade yet sets are still holding value.

 

[mauro23]

Even 21021 felt from 900 to around 650 Euro....

Edited March 21, 2017 by mauro23

[Pseudoty]

Good posts @fossilrock I stockpiled UN, something about those trans blue elements got me. Almost all were purchased from BN for $36 or less with a few from lego store during clearance and promo. I was planning to sell at 3x MSRP but over a year after retirement this set still hasn't hit 1.5 MSRP and you see a few BPers posting they are still finding them on the shelves at BN. 

Interesting thing this set and this line has not been affected by counterfeiting. 

[jaisonline]

2 hours ago, mauro23 said:

Even 21021 felt from 900 to around 650 Euro....

For those who might not know, 21012 is Marina Bay Sands.

Why do you think the value fell?

[Val-E]

1 hour ago, jaisonline said:

For those who might not know, 21012 is Marina Bay Sands.

Why do you think the value fell?

Something to do with Trump or Brexit or bubble?

[Seal Cutter]

1 hour ago, jaisonline said:

For those who might not know, 21012 is Marina Bay Sands.

Why do you think the value fell?

21021

[TANV]

8 hours ago, fossilrock said:

Last years Architecture retirees are all mostly busts (Brandenberg, Imperial Hotel, VS, UN Building, Space Needle, Pisa, etc).  While those might hit 2x, and some are close, or over, I don't see many of those going to 3x.  Many of them are actually money losers, once you add in fees.  

I also don't see IH following in Fallingwaters footsteps, or the VS to all the sudden grow like Farnsworth House did....   

Last years retirees have some better more iconic landmarks like the White House, and Big Ben, and while I think both are good to have in your lego portfolio, I don't think either will live up to the potential of how things were in this theme 2 to 4 years ago.  Those days are gone.  The rehashes combined with them moving towards the skyline theme has sort of taken the sails out of this theme.  

Personally, I was a big architecture fan, and at one point had all the sets up to the skyline theme.  It was the move towards the skyline series that has sort of whacked the sails for me.  I just don't find those sets very interesting and they seem like "mini builds" that you would get in an advent calendar, or like one of those polybags, and they throw a few of those together to make a set.  They just feel out of place.  So, once they started going down that road, that was the point where I decided enough was enough with this theme and i'm no longer going to be a completionist.  I'll buy a few of them here and there when it's something interesting..  The US Capitol building is one such example, but those are now few and far between.

My personal take on the Architecture line is that they're more akin to the slow growth index funds of the LEGO family.  They're often at a higher price point per brick than most other sets and are exceptionally ubiquitous and steady in their gains.  Now, the scale of the gains may be small comparable to the other types of LEGO sets but growth tends to be steady and fairly conservative.  Some of the funds may not reap as much returns as intended and furthermore, may have some slight losses (21011 Brandenburg Gate) but in terms of growth, I believe the Architecture series remains above average OVERALL.

You definitely have some winners in the line that have high returns such as 21022 Lincoln Memorial and 21006 White House already in the line.  There are some further exceptional models and potential winners such as the 21030 US Capitol, 21019 Eiffel Tower, and the upcoming 21036 Arc de Triomphe in my opinion.

I remain ambivalent about the Skyline series at the moment. If there's a winner from the first wave of it, I think it might be 21028 New York City since I feel it offers more bang for your buck, especially with Freedom Tower and the Empire State Building. 

[mauro23]

To declare 21022 Lincoln Memorial as a winner is pretty brave... In Germany it is a looser set....

[Val-E]

10 minutes ago, mauro23 said:

To declare 21022 Lincoln Memorial as a winner is pretty brave... In Germany it is a looser set....

Regional differences between North America and Europe. See IH v VS, SSN vs Pisa  etc

[zskid00]

Those discounted Lincoln Memorials and Trevi Fountains that I picked up in November and December are looking good to me right now.

[Achilles]

Something else - These sets used to be somewhat "rare", in that they were found in select locations - such as SAH, LEGO Stores, the bookstores, etc. Since TRU/Walmart and other places have carried them, they have been able to be found at decent discounts MUCH easier, which of course impacts the collecting/resale value as you don't need to abuse B&N coupons to get them at 30/40% off anymore. 

Like most things, I suspect the top value will be lower, the wait will be more, but there is still value to be had.

These sets can be a hassle to get used, and in general, aren't going to get rehashed and remade every 2-3 years like the licensed sets.

I personally think it's way way way too early to worry about prices of things like Villa Savoye and Trevi. 

 

 

[jaisonline]

42 minutes ago, Seal Cutter said:

21021

i know.  

i think the poster meant MBS though based on what he typed, "Even 21021 felt from 900 to around 650 Euro...."

[fossilrock]

40 minutes ago, TANV said:

My personal take on the Architecture line is that they're more akin to the slow growth index funds of the LEGO family.  They're often at a higher price point per brick than most other sets and are exceptionally ubiquitous and steady in their gains.  Now, the scale of the gains may be small comparable to the other types of LEGO sets but growth tends to be steady and fairly conservative.  Some of the funds may not reap as much returns as intended and furthermore, may have some slight losses (21011 Brandenburg Gate) but in terms of growth, I believe the Architecture series remains above average OVERALL.

You definitely have some winners in the line that have high returns such as 21022 Lincoln Memorial and 21006 White House already in the line.  There are some further exceptional models and potential winners such as the 21030 US Capitol, 21019 Eiffel Tower, and the upcoming 21036 Arc de Triomphe in my opinion.

I remain ambivalent about the Skyline series at the moment. If there's a winner from the first wave of it, I think it might be 21028 New York City since I feel it offers more bang for your buck, especially with Freedom Tower and the Empire State Building. 

The other thing about the Architecture theme is that they don't sell as fast as other themes especially when they are already 3x or more and sit at higher prices.  Other themes are much more fluid.. I could move 12 At-At's over 300 before i'll move one Fallingwater at that price.  Jurassic World and Scooby are two other more fluid themes it seems.

[TANV]

Just now, fossilrock said:

The other thing about the Architecture theme is that they don't sell as fast as other themes especially when they are already 3x or more and sit at higher prices.  Other themes are much more fluid.. I could move 12 At-At's over 300 before i'll move one Fallingwater at that price.  Jurassic World and Scooby are two other more fluid themes it seems.

Oh, I agree with you about market fluidity. The Architecture line is much more conservative in terms of both growth and returns.  But I still will stand by my assessment that it remains a slow and steady winner.  

[pat_teeth_hurt]

Look at Lincoln Memorial.  Seems to have doubled only a few months after retirement.  As long as Lego continues to pull the plug early on some (early as in retire before other earlier sets retire), there is still the opportunity.  Lincoln Memorial is performing like Sungnyemun immediately after retirement.

Good luck finding those though.  I missed out on Lincoln Memorial.

Studio was interesting because that doubled quickly when people thought Lego was retiring those sets and it was not available.  But it's still going and it'll be interesting to see how that performs once it retires.  I'm not too optimistic on that one, but I'm surprised how well Fallingwater, Rockefeller, Gugenheim, etc are doing even though those were available for many years and heavily discounted. 

But then, United Nations doesn't seem to be performing too well so that takes me back to the limited opportunity of finding those sets that retire earlier than expected to find the larger returns.  Else, the returns are not as high as in the past for those that complete it's normal cycle.

 

[Guest TabbyBoy]

2 hours ago, mauro23 said:

To declare 21022 Lincoln Memorial as a winner is pretty brave... In Germany it is a looser set....

How can it be a loser if it's still available in the UK at some retailers? However, I paid no more than £16 each for mine ;-)

"Proper" retirement takes many months if retailers still have stock so that's probably why it's not doing as well as expected.

There are a lot more players in the game now so we can expect dismal performance from most sets if bought at RRP.

[Guest TabbyBoy]

8 minutes ago, pat_teeth_hurt said:

Look at Lincoln Memorial.  Seems to have doubled only a few months after retirement.  As long as Lego continues to pull the plug early on some (early as in retire before other earlier sets retire), there is still the opportunity.  Lincoln Memorial is performing like Sungnyemun immediately after retirement.

Good luck finding those though.  I missed out on Lincoln Memorial.

Studio was interesting because that doubled quickly when people thought Lego was retiring those sets and it was not available.  But it's still going and it'll be interesting to see how that performs once it retires.  I'm not too optimistic on that one, but I'm surprised how well Fallingwater, Rockefeller, Gugenheim, etc are doing even though those were available for many years and heavily discounted. 

But then, United Nations doesn't seem to be performing too well so that takes me back to the limited opportunity of finding those sets that retire earlier than expected to find the larger returns.  Else, the returns are not as high as in the past for those that complete it's normal cycle.

 

I have high hopes for LM especially when paired with the WH. I remember that Architecture Studio wasn't available in the UK until it retired in the US!

[Phil B]

7 minutes ago, TabbyBoy said:

I have high hopes for LM especially when paired with the WH. I remember that Architecture Studio wasn't available in the UK until it retired in the US!

What are you talking about?

[Guest TabbyBoy]

1 minute ago, Phil B said:

What are you talking about?

I can't remember when, but I'm 99.99% sure that this did bite the dust at one point (or became long-term unavailable) before it came to the UK. I certainly recall you guys having kittens over it for at least a year before it was a twinkle in the eye at LEGO UK.

[Pseudoty]

Architecture Studio had a limited first run production because of issues with the included book. 

There was an error on page 85 that was fixed in the "Second edition"

 

Edited March 21, 2017 by Pseudoty

[Val-E]

Very interesting interview with a TLG Architecture designer. Some clues about possible future releases and also important to know that next year will be tenth anniversary year so perhaps there will be some sort of special set.

https://brickset.com/article/29331

 

[Pseudoty]

Thanks @Val-E great read. 

Like you big take away is 10th anniversary set. Also liked "stickers are good for kids" and neat to learn that the Arch designers can not create new elements. 

[Val-E]

Yeah, it was good to get confirmation about stuff we speculated about. I also take away the confirmation that there are going to be more remakes coming. Maybe not hold onto those Fallingwaters or ESB´s for too long.