Friends - general discussion

[Ed Mack]

I found some interesting trends in the Jan data.

Set # Description 1 month 6 months retail

9468 Vamp castle -33.27 -16.95 -15.47

9467 Ghost Train -15.18 -30.12 -22.55

9466 Crazy sci &mon; -8.67 -23.32 -10.24

3185 Riding camp 13.42 32.39

3315 O's Hou -3.9 -4.44 -1.49

3189 Heart Stab 13.05 -7.28

I know this is a very small and select data set and things will probably change once we get close to EOL, but wow, that is a lot of negative growth for Monster Fighters.

Full disclosure; I picked up one 9468 and one 3185 at the recent TRU BOGO 50% off sale.

Heavy discounts.

[Rich B]

In most cases, not always, Lego sets that are still readily available typically decrease in value after the holiday season is over. Now is the time to buy Lego. Later in the year fall/holiday season is the time to sell. This isn't the case for all Lego sets, but seeing big drops in value with non-EOL sets post holidays is normal. Just be patient and wait for the sets you've invested in to EOL. Then the fun will begin Now on another note, Lego sets that EOL'd just before the holidays or right after the holidays, well those sets should/will typically increase from here on out until they level off. That is assuming one picks good investments, as poor investments may decrease in value.

[Snowcrash]

Can't go by the data as long as the set is available on B&M shelves in stores across the land as well as all major online vendors (often at steep discount). Once the set retires I'm guessing the price tracker more accurately reflects a sets value.

[Ed Mack]

Most normal LEGO themes don't appreciate before EOL...

[LabRat76]

Thanks for the comments, makes perfect sense that most sets will normally not increase in value until after EOL. I learn something every day on this site!

[SlickP]

Many of the MF sets were on clearance at Walmart after Xmas.

[Sauromosis]

Friends is a huge success. My girls ran around the house all weekend carrying the minifigs and animals and we went to TRU and the lady stocking the shelves said they wanted to do a big Friends end-cap but didn't have enough product because it's always selling.

Wave one sets like the Dog Show and Horse Trailer are already selling at a good markup.

[Sauromosis]

Emma's Car is appreciating nicely, but the only polybag I see in stores is the beach one. Which ones will be the best CAGR performers?

[Veegs]

What stores are these in? These Friends polybags have done pretty well so far and I'd like to grab some/any!

[Sauromosis]

Toys r us was where I saw the beach ones.

[Huskers1236]

What do you guys think about the new Friends Polys with the animals? I saw some at Shopko the other night but had no idea if these were rare or supposed to leave shelves quickly.

[emes]

Any of these are winners if you can get them at the right price. 30103 and 30105 have recently been at WalMart for $2.50, together they sell for ~$17. 30106 if you can find it is at Target for $1.19. With the red card slightly less expensive... The TRU BOGO works out for the two that I see there (desk and beach), but in my case the average price per bag comes out to $4.05. There's still room for profit, but not as much.

[Legodog]

What do you guys think about the new Friends Polys with the animals? I saw some at Shopko the other night but had no idea if these were rare or supposed to leave shelves quickly.

The one with the cat, turtle and squirrel are all on the LEGO Shop at Home retiring soon list. One of the last friends polybags to go EOL is now selling for $32 on eBay if that is any indication.

[CNH1974]

Found this in the Times Business section today. http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/business/industries/consumer/article3695210.ece You will have to subscribe to read the full article - or buy today's paper in the next 4 hours (writing at 19:55). Basically it says Lego cannot keep up with demand for the "for girls" theme; Friends as demand keeps outstripping supply. And then goes on to speak about the general finacial results which Ed's just posted into this forum as well. So... Doubling of production bad news for us or will the 'high demand' keep returns high for this theme? I genuinely do not know, it is not a theme i have followed I do not even know if any of its sets have gone EOL yet?

[Sauromosis]

I know that Dog Show and Butterfly House have gone EOL, and sell at a good markup. Horse Trailer will be gone soon I think given how hard it is to find. And the little poly bags, 5 of them, I don't see anywhere. The article seems to state that they have had to double production already and are selling out so maybe this won't affect us much but it would make the earliest sets the ones to own. That TRU exclusive Summer Riding Camp keeps begging me to buy it.

[Sauromosis]

I found five 30107's - Birthday Party at TRU. I think kids will like the balloons in it.

[emazers]

The Toys R Us and Lego Friends 3185 Summer Riding Camp is the set to get and the Toys R Us sale ends Saturday. The sale comes to like $87.00 each. This will be a great investment set I got 8 more today, Total 16 for the week.

[nolanfan34]

I found two random 30108s yesterday in Target, in the regular Friends aisle. Only ones I could find. I did notice that in the Easter section, although it was empty now, they had a slot for more Ice Cream Stand sets. Must be coming soon.

[nolanfan34]

Seems good purely since more demand = demand for the retired sets. emazers alone has me convinced on Summer Riding Camp, the biggest piece set of a line seems to never go wrong.

[Darth Lego]

High demand and low supply= Good for investors. High demand and double the supply= Not so good for investors. That's generally how I look at news like this.

[nolanfan34]

High demand and low supply= Good for investors.

High demand and double the supply= Not so good for investors.

That's generally how I look at news like this.

Remember though that double the supply does not necessarily equal lowering the high demand. If more and more girls get into the line, they could double the supply, still have high demand, and now you have a broader addressable market for the older stuff. That is my thought at least.

[redeemed763]

This theme is taking off with a lot of popularity, this means that more little girls are getting the sets which means there will also be a larger customer base down the road, I think its a great thing personally, Lego has not been able to keep these sets in stock. I want as many parents and kids loving this theme because of the sets they already have and lining up to buy more at our prices. Friends is the most popular girls theme to date and as such, will likely perform better than any of the prior themes as well.

[Legodog]

The Toys R Us and Lego Friends 3185 Summer Riding Camp is the set to get and the Toys R Us sale ends Saturday. The sale comes to like $87.00 each. This will be a great investment set I got 8 more today, Total 16 for the week.

Where did you find so many of these? Every TRU I go to has 1 in stock if I'm lucky.

[Anakinisvader]

Remember though that double the supply does not necessarily equal lowering the high demand. If more and more girls get into the line, they could double the supply, still have high demand, and now you have a broader addressable market for the older stuff. That is my thought at least.

I have to agree with Darth Lego here. The more supply that is in the marketplace will squelch demand in the aftermarket. If everyone has the ones they want because there is such an abundance of supply in the retail market, there will be no one left to buy in the aftermarket. This may help the stuff that is EOL now but will not help the newer stuff coming out.

[Veegs]

I've been preaching first wave of Friends for weeks, people! Get your hands on the Jan. 2011 sets (use Brickpicker to see them all) first (if you can find them) and then move on the the spring/summer sets. If they really are doubling production, I'd stay away from the newest sets. Perhaps not forever, but certainly until the effects of increased production are seen in the marketplace. For now, Dog Show, Beauty Salon, Emma's Design Studio, Andrea's Stage and the two biggest sets (Olivia's House and the Riding Camp) are buys, at least in my opinion. Which means not much according to my wife!