iahawks550 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Also, hate to say it, but most nerdy LEGO fans are probably nerdy Star Wars fans, and nerdy LOTR fans. There is reasoning how TLG picks their partners. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The point I was trying to make is, I personally do not like to narrow my target audience (aka buyers) to a small group inside a ''small'' group of LEGO collectors..... I am fully aware that SSD is not aimed for me.... but when I look through the eyes of a seller I always try to aim for ''investments'' (in this case LEGO sets) that have as least possible variables when it comes to potential sale.... For example: for an ''average'' LEGO set (lets take Helm's Deep) to sell, following criteria in a buyer must be met: - Must be a LEGO fan and collector/builder - Must be a LOTR fan (or atleast Castle fan - Must have enough cash - Must want this particular set - Must have enough room to store/display it (thats debatable) (I shortened the requirements could go on for a while) With each criteria met my buyer base goes smaller and smaller.... Now with SSD I make it even smaller, because the price points goes even further and the set size goes even larger..... Its all about selling logic here..... (i am not saying they will not be sold) but for me with a set like SSD and even DS (or MF if you want) you eventually put yourself in a position (as a seller) where a minority (a percent of LEGO collectors (if at all)) can make prices jump or fall easier due to each individual buyer having more affect on a price (passively) considering I assume you all want to sell them eventually. Now the Crawler, some people yelled on this exact same forum(s) that Crawler will be a 1000$ set by the end of this year..... we are halfway(and more) there Crawler is not..... Now ''you'' say its because the other model is available.... but the other model is the other model..... the 20.000 version has a different market of LEGO enthuisiasts than the regular version (whatever is the number of the set) and yet it seems the market it was aimed upon, is stale or prefers the cheaper and ''worse'' version? Now dont get me wrong I could buy SSD and I did not want to due to my entirely different investing strategy and I did not miss the boat, I can still buy 2x for 345 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysbricks Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 As they say, size matters. Bigger is better. Knocking this set because it is big is the silliest thing I've ever read on these forums. Apparently you missed the comments on TLG tracking your local MAC address and why you should apply billion dollar investing strategies to thousand dollar lego speculating, both by Emes Will Hunting. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The point I was trying to make is, I personally do not like to narrow my target audience (aka buyers) to a small group inside a ''small'' group of LEGO collectors..... I am fully aware that SSD is not aimed for me.... but when I look through the eyes of a seller I always try to aim for ''investments'' (in this case LEGO sets) that have as least possible variables when it comes to potential sale.... For example: for an ''average'' LEGO set (lets take Helm's Deep) to sell, following criteria in a buyer must be met: - Must be a LEGO fan and collector/builder - Must be a LOTR fan (or atleast Castle fan - Must have enough cash - Must want this particular set - Must have enough room to store/display it (thats debatable) (I shortened the requirements could go on for a while) With each criteria met my buyer base goes smaller and smaller.... Now with SSD I make it even smaller, because the price points goes even further and the set size goes even larger..... Its all about selling logic here..... (i am not saying they will not be sold) but for me with a set like SSD and even DS (or MF if you want) you eventually put yourself in a position (as a seller) where a minority (a percent of LEGO collectors (if at all)) can make prices jump or fall easier due to each individual buyer having more affect on a price (passively) considering I assume you all want to sell them eventually. Now the Crawler, some people yelled on this exact same forum(s) that Crawler will be a 1000$ set by the end of this year..... we are halfway(and more) there Crawler is not..... Now ''you'' say its because the other model is available.... but the other model is the other model..... the 20.000 version has a different market of LEGO enthuisiasts than the regular version (whatever is the number of the set) and yet it seems the market it was aimed upon, is stale or prefers the cheaper and ''worse'' version? Now dont get me wrong I could buy SSD and I did not want to due to my entirely different investing strategy and I did not miss the boat, I can still buy 2x for 345 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
comicblast Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Bumpity-Bump Why on earth would we need another thread about the SSD? I have enough trouble keeping up with the dozens of emails that I get from threads about the GE, SSD, DS, VW, SC, etc. I'm going to go crazy if I "have to" subscribe to another thread. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naf Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The point I was trying to make is, I personally do not like to narrow my target audience (aka buyers) to a small group inside a ''small'' group of LEGO collectors..... I am fully aware that SSD is not aimed for me.... but when I look through the eyes of a seller I always try to aim for ''investments'' (in this case LEGO sets) that have as least possible variables when it comes to potential sale.... For example: for an ''average'' LEGO set (lets take Helm's Deep) to sell, following criteria in a buyer must be met: - Must be a LEGO fan and collector/builder - Must be a LOTR fan (or atleast Castle fan - Must have enough cash - Must want this particular set - Must have enough room to store/display it (thats debatable) (I shortened the requirements could go on for a while) With each criteria met my buyer base goes smaller and smaller.... Now with SSD I make it even smaller, because the price points goes even further and the set size goes even larger..... Its all about selling logic here..... (i am not saying they will not be sold) but for me with a set like SSD and even DS (or MF if you want) you eventually put yourself in a position (as a seller) where a minority (a percent of LEGO collectors (if at all)) can make prices jump or fall easier due to each individual buyer having more affect on a price (passively) considering I assume you all want to sell them eventually. I really don't understand what you're trying to say here, you can make this "argument" against any set: - Must be a LEGO fan and collector/builder - Must be a city/space/lotr/star wars/castle fan etc etc etc - Must have enough cash - Must want this particular set - Must have enough room to store/display it (thats debatable) Saying this is the reason the SSD will not do well doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Of course only a subset of all Lego buyers will like a particular set, some Lego fans don't like certain themes and love others. By this logic we should dump all of our VW T1 campers because 100% of Lego buyers aren't VW or camper fans? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No More Monkeys Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Why on earth would we need another thread about the SSD? I have enough trouble keeping up with the dozens of emails that I get from threads about the GE, SSD, DS, VW, SC, etc. I'm going to go crazy if I "have to" subscribe to another thread. Well, this one was already there here. And it would be on topic for investment value discussion. Whoever does not care about investment value argument does not have to follow it. "News on 10221" thread is getting too diluted with non-rumors... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alcarin Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I really don't understand what you're trying to say here, you can make this "argument" against any set: - Must be a LEGO fan and collector/builder - Must be a city/space/lotr/star wars/castle fan etc etc etc - Must have enough cash - Must want this particular set - Must have enough room to store/display it (thats debatable) Saying this is the reason the SSD will not do well doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Of course only a subset of all Lego buyers will like a particular set, some Lego fans don't like certain themes and love others. By this logic we should dump all of our VW T1 campers because 100% of Lego buyers aren't VW or camper fans? No I am saying a tad different.... it means that out of all LEGO investors there are so many (whatever the actual number is) Star Wars (LEGO) fans and out of all Star wars LEGO fans there are again only a percantage who can afford and display it..... so thats a third lowering compared to only 2 for many other sets..... I am not saying thats the reason it will do bad... Can you point where i said that please? Stop putting words into my mouth(keyboard) Crawler and SSD...Apples and Oranges. You cannot compare the two. The Crawler hasn't even been retired a year and it still has appreciated nicely. Come back to me in 3 years and make your case. The SSD is heading for the perfect investment storm with the new movies coming out. If you can wait 2 years, the SSD will reward investors big time. I am still really anxious to see that 1000$ Crawler by x-mas 2014 by some Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hannibal Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just for the sake of argument why SSD is a bad ass and will make huge profit.... I used to work for one of the most premium sports car manufacturers in the world. I remember seeing figures that the average customer of ours, already owns 8-10 super duper expensive cars in his garage. So...do you guys (nay-sayers) think the very high end premium companies should be worried where their customers are storing their cars/vehicles? Oh no!!! Mr. Whoever already has 10 cars in his garage, please stop making cars cause the poor dude has no where to store them! Instead...those chaps come back again and spend another half a million on a new car just because they like their ride in a different colour... Seriously guys...grow up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChristopherJB Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just for the sake of argument why SSD is a bad ass and will make huge profit.... I used to work for one of the most premium sports car manufacturers in the world. I remember seeing figures that the average customer of ours, already owns 8-10 super duper expensive cars in his garage. So...do you guys (nay-sayers) think the very high end premium companies should be worried where their customers are storing their cars/vehicles? Oh no!!! Mr. Whoever already has 10 cars in his garage, please stop making cars cause the poor dude has no where to store them! Instead...those chaps come back again and spend another half a million on a new car just because they like their ride in a different colour... Seriously guys...grow up Hahah, that's a good one and I agree. I have a friend in Arizona and his house is so huge. So he has one 911 turbo and he also has another Porsche Carrera, go figure. He built 3 SSD and asked me if he can take all five of mine, if not, he said he will try to scour for one on eBay. I told him to go on eBay and clean out those who are selling at $650 so I can sell mine at a higher price. There are many people with big homes in America. It makes me feel as though those who are posting live in big cities with limited floor space. In America, we do have garages and gates properties. At least some of us do. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChristopherJB Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 The point I was trying to make is, I personally do not like to narrow my target audience (aka buyers) to a small group inside a ''small'' group of LEGO collectors..... I am fully aware that SSD is not aimed for me.... but when I look through the eyes of a seller I always try to aim for ''investments'' (in this case LEGO sets) that have as least possible variables when it comes to potential sale.... For example: for an ''average'' LEGO set (lets take Helm's Deep) to sell, following criteria in a buyer must be met: - Must be a LEGO fan and collector/builder - Must be a LOTR fan (or atleast Castle fan - Must have enough cash - Must want this particular set - Must have enough room to store/display it (thats debatable) (I shortened the requirements could go on for a while) With each criteria met my buyer base goes smaller and smaller.... Now with SSD I make it even smaller, because the price points goes even further and the set size goes even larger..... Its all about selling logic here..... (i am not saying they will not be sold) but for me with a set like SSD and even DS (or MF if you want) you eventually put yourself in a position (as a seller) where a minority (a percent of LEGO collectors (if at all)) can make prices jump or fall easier due to each individual buyer having more affect on a price (passively) considering I assume you all want to sell them eventually. Now the Crawler, some people yelled on this exact same forum(s) that Crawler will be a 1000$ set by the end of this year..... we are halfway(and more) there Crawler is not..... Now ''you'' say its because the other model is available.... but the other model is the other model..... the 20.000 version has a different market of LEGO enthuisiasts than the regular version (whatever is the number of the set) and yet it seems the market it was aimed upon, is stale or prefers the cheaper and ''worse'' version? Now dont get me wrong I could buy SSD and I did not want to due to my entirely different investing strategy and I did not miss the boat, I can still buy 2x for 345 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
33Lego Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Just for the sake of argument why SSD is a bad ass and will make huge profit.... I used to work for one of the most premium sports car manufacturers in the world. I remember seeing figures that the average customer of ours, already owns 8-10 super duper expensive cars in his garage. So...do you guys (nay-sayers) think the very high end premium companies should be worried where their customers are storing their cars/vehicles? Oh no!!! Mr. Whoever already has 10 cars in his garage, please stop making cars cause the poor dude has no where to store them! Instead...those chaps come back again and spend another half a million on a new car just because they like their ride in a different colour... Seriously guys...grow up This is so true. Think about the SF bay area start ups folks. I recall that when Facebook and Twitter and others went public; everyone working there became a millionaires. But, wait, SSD only has 1 color. Hmm, that would be a problem now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I am still really anxious to see that 1000$ Crawler by x-mas 2014 by some Why do you compare the two? They have nothing to do with one another. Completely different sets. Two different MSRPs. I know you like to play Devil's Advocate, but give it a break already. If the 41999 hits $500 by XMAS, would that be considered a great investment? The 41999 will eventually hit around $800 IMO, give or take, but it might take 3 or 4 years. If the SSD retires now, it will be $800 by XMAS. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChristopherJB Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Why do you compare the two? They have nothing to do with one another. Completely different sets. Two different MSRPs. I know you like to play Devil's Advocate, but give it a break already. If the 41999 hits $500 by XMAS, would that be considered a great investment? The 41999 will eventually hit around $800 IMO, give or take, but it might take 3 or 4 years. If the SSD retires now, it will be $800 by XMAS. $800 by Xmas an take that to the bank. That is highly possible. Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickelements Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Serious question for the investing astute here. Do you think there will be any premium attached to SSD's still in a sealed case (2)? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickelements Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Next question. MF 10179 had a cert of auth for the first run. SSD's do not (am I correct?). Any opinions on a premium attached to those sets with the early codes? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Serious question for the investing astute here. Do you think there will be any premium attached to SSD's still in a sealed case (2)? I'm no expert, but I don't see why it would. Most people buying these after EOL will want to build it I would think. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
emazers Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I have gotten a few sealed cases of the SSD, in the mail and at the Lego store, The first thing I do is open the box up and see the condition of the sets, even though the Lego Box is in good shape does not mean that the Sets are Mint, when I was getting Lego sets from Lego wholesale I opened plenty boxes that were mint but the Lego Sets were Smashed,Creases,etc. Even when I got about 5 cases of the SSD I opened the box right there and out of 10 sets 2 were damaged, but the Sealed case was mint. So I would never pay more for a sealed case of Lego's. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickelements Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Thanks for the replies. Any opinions on the early codes from year one of production? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Next question. MF 10179 had a cert of auth for the first run. SSD's do not (am I correct?). Any opinions on a premium attached to those sets with the early codes? No difference. All the SSDs are the same. The 10179 has a special badge on the box and letter inside to signify it was a first edition. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 I have gotten a few sealed cases of the SSD, in the mail and at the Lego store, The first thing I do is open the box up and see the condition of the sets, even though the Lego Box is in good shape does not mean that the Sets are Mint, when I was getting Lego sets from Lego wholesale I opened plenty boxes that were mint but the Lego Sets were Smashed,Creases,etc. Even when I got about 5 cases of the SSD I opened the box right there and out of 10 sets 2 were damaged, but the Sealed case was mint. So I would never pay more for a sealed case of Lego's. Yeah, I don't think I'd be comfortable selling a big set like this without checking the contents first. Then I just leave them in the boxes they come in, as I plan on shipping them in the same boxes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brickelements Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Ed, Thanks for the reply Dumb question then: No difference in what is included with the set. Get that. No cert etc. The why all the fuss recently within the forums on production codes? Just guestimate EOL? How many production runs? If it doesn't matter when it was produced why all the hubbub? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Ed, Thanks for the reply Dumb question then: No difference in what is included with the set. Get that. No cert etc. The why all the fuss recently within the forums on production codes? Just guestimate EOL? How many production runs? If it doesn't matter when it was produced why all the hubbub? Don't know really. Maybe hardcore collectors prefer early production runs, a bit like first pressing of music LPs or something. But I would think any serious collector will have bought one before EOL anyway, rather than pay a huge premium on an expensive retired set. If it's the same set with the same pieces though, I don't think the person buying it to build is really gonna care. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 Ed, Thanks for the reply Dumb question then: No difference in what is included with the set. Get that. No cert etc. The why all the fuss recently within the forums on production codes? Just guestimate EOL? How many production runs? If it doesn't matter when it was produced why all the hubbub? From my standpoint, the production codes are not that important. Others feel you can predict the future from studying the past. They figure if they can see a pattern forming with the various sets and when they were produced, we might be able to tell if there is another production run coming. I say you can't really know what LEGO will do. There is no difference in set values in reference to when they were made. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iahawks550 Posted June 30, 2014 Share Posted June 30, 2014 How many pages do you think this gets to before any legitimate news is posted? I'm thinking around page 115. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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