10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[Ed Mack]

For those that think that SSD will fly off of ebay at $650 a pop in a couple of months, I think you are wrong.  I am a new Lego collector( less than a month).  So far I have not been able to get an SSD at retail, but I have managed to get 5 GE, 5 TB, and 5 VW.  I have had opportunities to get an SSD for $499 at Target.com and passed on it.  

 

I just think it is going to be a long while before lots of SSD's that are being snarfed up now will actually SELL for $650.  I mean after all, who is going to buy them for that price.  Certainly those that have bought a large inventory at $399 or less aren't going to.  It will be the NEW collector/investor of the future.  I can tell you this, if I didn't get one now, I certainly won't get one in the future (or may buy used ).  It will be much easier to sell sets of GE for $250-$350 than it will to sell SSD for $650 to $850.  A lot of new collectors will be able to afford $350 more than they will $650 - $800.  Just my 2 cents worth.  I would rather have 10 GE's than 4 SSD's which is the same  $ investested (or close enough).

 

Lastly,Anyone willing to trade me an SSD for 2 GE's and $100 or visa versa?

People who are STAR WARS fans and came out of the Dark Ages with some cash to burn will buy these sets.  I did years ago and others will after me.  I have made money on every high end set I paid top dollar for.  I want a set because I want it.  Price is not a factor many times.  I paid $900 for one of my 10179s.  Was that a good deal then?  How about now?

[fatboycarney]

People who are STAR WARS fans and came out of the Dark Ages with some cash to burn will buy these sets. I did years ago and others will after me and I have made money on every high end set I paid top dollar for. I want a set because I want it. Price is not a factor many times. I paid $900 for one of my 10179s. Was that a good deal then? How about now?

I will give you 1000 right now Ed so it must have been a good deal

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[Ed Mack]

I will give you 1000 right now Ed so it must have been a good deal

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There are many cases in which smart investors buy at high prices.  Don't underestimate the AFOL with some extra cash.  They will spend it on all types of sets they wanted years previously, but missed the opportunity. 

[No More Monkeys]

For those that think that SSD will fly off of ebay at $650 a pop in a couple of months, I think you are wrong.  I am a new Lego collector( less than a month).  So far I have not been able to get an SSD at retail, but I have managed to get 5 GE, 5 TB, and 5 VW.  I have had opportunities to get an SSD for $499 at Target.com and passed on it.  

 

I just think it is going to be a long while before lots of SSD's that are being snarfed up now will actually SELL for $650.  I mean after all, who is going to buy them for that price.  Certainly those that have bought a large inventory at $399 or less aren't going to.  It will be the NEW collector/investor of the future.  I can tell you this, if I didn't get one now, I certainly won't get one in the future (or may buy used ).  It will be much easier to sell sets of GE for $250-$350 than it will to sell SSD for $650 to $850.  A lot of new collectors will be able to afford $350 more than they will $650 - $800.  Just my 2 cents worth.  I would rather have 10 GE's than 4 SSD's which is the same  $ investested (or close enough).

 

Lastly,Anyone willing to trade me an SSD for 2 GE's and $100 or visa versa?

Must be scammers then: http://www.ebay.com/itm/181443146224

[neocacher]

I think part of the reason investors held back at buying the SSD for $500 at Target is because of the thought that there would be more opportunities to buy it for $400 later.  More to the point, people believed it would come back in stock at LEGO Shop at Home.  It's crazy what the mind will do once you realize that you cannot readily buy something anymore.  I know as a buyer, if I know a set is gone, I often feel the urge to buy even if I had no interest in the set beforehand.  All of a sudden, you start realizing just how special a set really is.  As a seller, the set is worth much more than $650 to me.  I don't need the cash, so I will not be compelled to sell any of mine for quite a while.  I was busy with work the last month and missed out on buying more, otherwise I would have many more than I currently have (about 16 or so)...

 

Maybe, but if I passed it up at $500 on Target I am unlikely to pay $600-$1000 for it in the future to OPEN and build. I have also watched youtube videos, when builders said the set was nice, but not really worth the money.  For me, I think it is not that good looking of a model when it is completed.  Kinda boring to me.  I like the looks of the other expensive sets much better.  

 

That all being said, If I can pick one up for $399 now, I still would buy one.

[legopocalypse]

you'll regret not picking up as many as you could for $399-$499

[No More Monkeys]

Maybe, but if I passed it up at $500 on Target I am unlikely to pay $600-$1000 for it in the future to OPEN and build. I have also watched youtube videos, when builders said the set was nice, but not really worth the money.  For me, I think it is not that good looking of a model when it is completed.  Kinda boring to me.  I like the looks of the other expensive sets much better.  

 

That all being said, If I can pick one up for $399 now, I still would buy one.

Why on earth anyone buys death star II after market? It's even more boring than ssd. And falls apart easily. Yet there we are...

[fatboycarney]

There are many cases in which smart investors buy at high prices. Don't underestimate the AFOL with some extra cash. They will spend it on all types of sets they wanted years previously, but missed the opportunity.

this is actually something I am trying to do to diversify. Looking at retired sets that I feel are rare and will appreciate substantially

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[pins79]

Maybe, but if I passed it up at $500 on Target I am unlikely to pay $600-$1000 for it in the future to OPEN and build. I have also watched youtube videos, when builders said the set was nice, but not really worth the money.  For me, I think it is not that good looking of a model when it is completed.  Kinda boring to me.  I like the looks of the other expensive sets much better.  

 

That all being said, If I can pick one up for $399 now, I still would buy one.

Yes, YOU are unlikely to spend $600-1000 for it, but a more hardcore Star Wars LEGO collector who must have this set may find those prices acceptable.  As a collector myself, I have paid 3-4x retail price for an item on many occasions.  It may take 3-5 years, but as long as you are not in a hurry to sell, this set will appreciate...maybe not to the extent of a MF, but I don't see why this set can't get to $1000.   That's only 2.5X retail.  Even if prices get to $1000, I probably would still not want to sell my stash at that price point.  That's probably just the hoarder in me though...

[marcandre]

For those that think that SSD will fly off of ebay at $650 a pop in a couple of months, I think you are wrong.  I am a new Lego collector( less than a month).  So far I have not been able to get an SSD at retail, but I have managed to get 5 GE, 5 TB, and 5 VW.  I have had opportunities to get an SSD for $499 at Target.com and passed on it.  

 

I just think it is going to be a long while before lots of SSD's that are being snarfed up now will actually SELL for $650.  I mean after all, who is going to buy them for that price.  Certainly those that have bought a large inventory at $399 or less aren't going to.  It will be the NEW collector/investor of the future.  I can tell you this, if I didn't get one now, I certainly won't get one in the future (or may buy used ).  It will be much easier to sell sets of GE for $250-$350 than it will to sell SSD for $650 to $850.  A lot of new collectors will be able to afford $350 more than they will $650 - $800.  Just my 2 cents worth.  I would rather have 10 GE's than 4 SSD's which is the same  $ investested (or close enough).

 

Lastly,Anyone willing to trade me an SSD for 2 GE's and $100 or visa versa?

 

 

I sold one on Monday for $650. They are getting that now.

[neocacher]

There have been 80 SSD's sold on Ebay in the last 29 days.  Approximately 10 of them were under $450, some under $400 early in June.  34 have sold for over $600 with the first one over $600 being sold on  June 12, and so far the top price being $675 (1 of them) including shipping.  The other 26 have been in the midrange of $450 to $600 mostly before June 20th.  So that makes approximately an average 2 per day sold right now in the $600 - $675 range.  As the price gets higher, fewer will sell per day.  From what I guess reading on this forum,  there are several thousand that forum member have bought for investment.   There are currently 29 SSD's on ebay for sale, with the lowest Buy it now at $645 w/ free shipping. Yesterday only one sold, at auction, for $560.

 

It is my prediction that there will be a group of investors that panic and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of SSD's still being sold between $500 and $600, some of the sellers just hoping to get there money back for the next several months.  At $500 there is no profit obviously after fees.

 

Regardless, it WILL be interesting to see what happens by Christmas time.

 

Meanwhile, we need to gear up for the next retired!

[neocacher]

you'll regret not picking up as many as you could for $399-$499

 

First of all, I got into the game too late, as I am a new collector, less than a month.  I missed the window. But, because I have limited cash to spend and I was picking up GE's and VW, and TB instead, so I am in the game at least.    But like I said earlier , I wouldn't mind having one at $399.

[johnwray]

Maybe, but if I passed it up at $500 on Target I am unlikely to pay $600-$1000 for it in the future to OPEN and build. I have also watched youtube videos, when builders said the set was nice, but not really worth the money.  For me, I think it is not that good looking of a model when it is completed.  Kinda boring to me.  I like the looks of the other expensive sets much better.  

 

That all being said, If I can pick one up for $399 now, I still would buy one.

 

Quoted from an article on cognitive biases:

 

Projection Bias

As individuals trapped inside our own minds 24/7, it's often difficult for us to project outside the bounds of our own consciousness and preferences. We tend to assume that most people think just like us

[Mathew]

The thing that the SSD has going for it is it's size.  I don't foresee Lego releasing anything as big anytime soon with the possible exception of a UCS Millennium Falcon re-hash.  However, one must see it in person to really appreciate it.  I've only seen it on display once at a Lego store.  I was impressed by it, but at the time I couldn't justify spending $400.  Of course now that it's OOS my desire for it has increased.  That may partially be the reason that we're seeing the initial spike in price.  I think it will level out to $800 or so for awhile.  It's not as popular ship as the Falcon.

[Alpinemaps]

Don't underestimate the AFOL with some extra cash.

I read that in Darth Vader' voice.

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[Ed Mack]

There have been 80 SSD's sold on Ebay in the last 29 days. Approximately 10 of them were under $450, some under $400 early in June. 34 have sold for over $600 with the first one over $600 being sold on June 12, and so far the top price being $675 (1 of them) including shipping. The other 26 have been in the midrange of $450 to $600 mostly before June 20th. So that makes approximately an average 2 per day sold right now in the $600 - $675 range. As the price gets higher, fewer will sell per day. From what I guess reading on this forum, there are several thousand that forum member have bought for investment. There are currently 29 SSD's on ebay for sale, with the lowest Buy it now at $645 w/ free shipping. Yesterday only one sold, at auction, for $560.

It is my prediction that there will be a group of investors that panic and I wouldn't be surprised to see a lot of SSD's still being sold between $500 and $600, some of the sellers just hoping to get there money back for the next several months. At $500 there is no profit obviously after fees.

Regardless, it WILL be interesting to see what happens by Christmas time.

Meanwhile, we need to gear up for the next retired!

What you fail to realize is many of these current sellers bought when the set sold for $300. Selling now at $600 is a nice profit regardless. Everyone picks a point at which to sell. The real question is what will the set be worth next XMAS....2015? The new movies will be released then. It's just my opinion, but it would be foolish to sell before November 2015.

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[33Lego]

Quoted from an article on cognitive biases:

 

Projection Bias

As individuals trapped inside our own minds 24/7, it's often difficult for us to project outside the bounds of our own consciousness and preferences. We tend to assume that most people think just like us

[BrickLegacy]

About three months ago I shared neocacher's thoughts. Why would I spend $400 on a huge set that would be difficult to display? Plus, it's never going to retire so I can wait it out.

Then Ed was so gracious to warn us to buy one during the 2x VIP event or regret it later. I hesitated at first and it went out of stock from shop at home. Then I panicked, thinking "What have I done?!" With retirement imminent, I was doomed to pay 1.5x retail for this, and if I waited any longer, even more.

Then it came back in stock and I bought one for my personal collection. It went out of stock again. Everything was backordered. I realized at this point what the mentality is of a Star Wars AFOL for I am one of them. They must and will have this set. So bought a second with no promotions other than 1x VIP.

When Amazon had them in stock with no tax in my state, I pounced on the opportunity. I won't disclose how many I have but it's more than 2 and less than emazers.

I've also passed up on 6 GEs recently mostly because I couldn't haul them home from vacation. My patience proved fortuitous when Amazon had the SSD in stock yesterday. I'll take two SSDs with no tax over 5 GEs plus tax right now.

P.S. My SSDs shipped today.

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[No More Monkeys]

About three months ago I shared neocacher's thoughts. Why would I spend $400 on a huge set that would be difficult to display? Plus, it's never going to retire so I can wait it out.

Then Ed was so gracious to warn us to buy one during the 2x VIP event or regret it later. I hesitated at first and it went out of stock from shop at home. Then I panicked, thinking "What have I done?!" With retirement imminent, I was doomed to pay 1.5x retail for this, and if I waited any longer, even more.

Then it came back in stock and I bought one for my personal collection. It went out of stock again. Everything was backordered. I realized at this point what the mentality is of a Star Wars AFOL for I am one of them. They must and will have this set. So bought a second with no promotions other than 1x VIP.

When Amazon had them in stock with no tax in my state, I pounced on the opportunity. I won't disclose how many I have but it's more than 2 and less than emazers.

I've also passed up on 6 GEs recently mostly because I couldn't haul them home from vacation. My patience proved fortuitous when Amazon had the SSD in stock yesterday. I'll take two SSDs with no tax over 5 GEs plus tax right now.

P.S. My SSDs shipped today.

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Speaking of SSDs from amazon. Ordered 2. They shipped one. The other one is in "not yet shipped", I.e. the initial state. Interesting...

[redghostx]

I would like to comment on the people asking "why will someone pay $650 for a set"

 

On top of other answers (collectors, AFOLs):

White collar people who have vast amounts of disposable income, particularly those with kids.  I have family that drop money on toys for their 10-15 year old boys just because the kids want it.  It is a foreign concept to me to spend $500 on a toy for children but there are people out there who will want this for whatever personal reason and won't hesitate paying top dollar for it because it is the ONLY set like this.

 

There is something about this set that screams profit to me and I look forward to holding them for some time to maximize the returns (and then hopefully buy a used one to build)

[Mathew]

What are the odds that not just Amazon is getting a last shipment?  What about Lego Stores?  Isn't it possible that it will show back up on shelves for one last hurrah?  When do Lego stores typically receive a shipment and restock the shelves?

[No More Monkeys]

What are the odds that not just Amazon is getting a last shipment?  What about Lego Stores?  Isn't it possible that it will show back up on shelves for one last hurrah?  When do Lego stores typically receive a shipment and restock the shelves?

They would probably have status at "TOOS" then. "Sold out" means that they still contemplating another run, but I don't think they have anything left from 19R4-20R4 run (which was what they used to fill backorders, and had some availability for few days)

[waddamon]

Just so people get some perspective I have been hunting for a mint sealed black monarch castle, blacks seas barracuda and carri ean clipper. So far no luck on a sealed pristine copy. I am willing to pay 4 figures for the monarch castle and barracuda. None to be had. Look up the tetail prices of those sets. An investor must be able to detach their investment opportunity from their own biased limited understanding. Bugatti contibues to sell multi million dollar cars because rich folks want them, plain amd simple. Same thing goes here. True collectors in many cases that have resources ignore price for what they want, and to not think so as an investor on this side of the trade is ignorance. The highest demand sets are the biggest always have been. That is also why i am putting money on tower bridge. To each his own though. I am glad people are not as invested in this as it would seem, makes a better long term opportunity.

[allen9917]

For those that think that SSD will fly off of ebay at $650 a pop in a couple of months, I think you are wrong.  I am a new Lego collector( less than a month).  So far I have not been able to get an SSD at retail, but I have managed to get 5 GE, 5 TB, and 5 VW.  I have had opportunities to get an SSD for $499 at Target.com and passed on it.  

 

I just think it is going to be a long while before lots of SSD's that are being snarfed up now will actually SELL for $650.  I mean after all, who is going to buy them for that price.  Certainly those that have bought a large inventory at $399 or less aren't going to.  It will be the NEW collector/investor of the future.  I can tell you this, if I didn't get one now, I certainly won't get one in the future (or may buy used ).  It will be much easier to sell sets of GE for $250-$350 than it will to sell SSD for $650 to $850.  A lot of new collectors will be able to afford $350 more than they will $650 - $800.  Just my 2 cents worth.  I would rather have 10 GE's than 4 SSD's which is the same  $ investested (or close enough).

 

Lastly,Anyone willing to trade me an SSD for 2 GE's and $100 or visa versa?

Dude, it's already selling for $650. There may be fewer people willing to pay top dollars for ssd, but let me tell you there are also way less people invested in ssd than GE. I myself am more comfortable dealing with GE than ssd, but the ssd price jump after oos is impressive. I'm holding my couple and not selling until close to 1k.

[neocacher]

Dude, it's already selling for $650. There may be fewer people willing to pay top dollars for ssd, but let me tell you there are also way less people invested in ssd than GE. I myself am more comfortable dealing with GE than ssd, but the ssd price jump after oos is impressive. I'm holding my couple and not selling until close to 1k.

 

For me to INVEST now at $650 is not practical.  It would be harder to double my money than if I bought $650 (It would have to get to $1300)  worth of another set at current retail that is close to retirement such as GE or TB or VW and have it double.  I really don't want the set for myself to build at that price. Yes, I missed the opportunity of a cheap SSD, but that is because I just started collecting less than a month ago.  Haven't had the timing to find one at $399.