10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[sroster]

$309?  Buy 2 get 1?  Man, I thought I did well buying one when it was double VIP. 

[hannibal]

$309?  Buy 2 get 1?  Man, I thought I did well buying one when it was double VIP. 

 

...with such great deals it is no brainer why some people sell on ebay items so cheap. its sooooo unfair to the EU/UK sellers its actually outrageous!

[MarleyMoose]

Back to call for availability.

[MillerTime]

...with such great deals it is no brainer why some people sell on ebay items so cheap. its sooooo unfair to the EU/UK sellers its actually outrageous!

 

Blame free markets and lower taxes for a more competitive economy in the US

[NJHitmen]

Back to call for availability.

Aaaaand back to sold out.

They're totally messing with us.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[mudcatsfan]

Aaaaand back to sold out.

They're totally messing with us.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

or more likely this is exactly how an inventory system works when it goes from thousands available to just a handful available.

[stephen_rockefeller]

or more likely this is exactly how an inventory system works when it goes from thousands available to just a handful available.

Exactly.....the exact opposite of the TRU system.

[beartrapper]

At some point I'll pick one of these up. I hope.

[NJHitmen]

or more likely this is exactly how an inventory system works when it goes from thousands available to just a handful available.

To be clear, no, I don't actually think someone's sitting there randomly changing the availability status message purely to screw with our heads. Apologies if that wasn't clear.

So, of course, what we're seeing is how their system handles an item that's gone to very low inventory levels.

I'd posit that the way the system is handling the situation is broken. It certainly isn't how most major retailers' systems are supposed to operate*. Sure, items can jump in and out of stock, but typically there isn't this much flux. Moreover, I've called in three times just after a change to "call for availability" and I've been given the same message each time: there simply aren't any in stock.

* I speak (err, type) from some level of experience here...my company has our own inventory management system, which I helped throw together. It's a totally different commodity (PM me for details if you really want to know, just be advised it isn't all that interesting), but same idea: we need to present somewhat accurate inventory info to our customers, frequently on items that are stocked in very small numbers (single digits). We looked at a number of products (including some that support major online retailers) so I have some sense of what's out there. Whatever Lego's using, it's either fundamentally broken, badly configured, or (most likely) being fed bad info, i.e. their warehouses report phantom stock, which triggers the "call for availability" message.

Sorry for the long post, this kind of stuff is actually interesting to me and I tend to blather on about it when triggered.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[mudcatsfan]

To be clear, no, I don't actually think someone's sitting there randomly changing the availability status message purely to screw with our heads. Apologies if that wasn't clear.

So, of course, what we're seeing is how their system handles an item that's gone to very low inventory levels.

I'd posit that the way the system is handling the situation is broken. It certainly isn't how most major retailers' systems are supposed to operate*. Sure, items can jump in and out of stock, but typically there isn't this much flux. Moreover, I've called in three times just after a change to "call for availability" and I've been given the same message each time: there simply aren't any in stock.

* I speak (err, type) from some level of experience here...my company has our own inventory management system, which I helped throw together. It's a totally different commodity (PM me for details if you really want to know, just be advised it isn't all that interesting), but same idea: we need to present somewhat accurate inventory info to our customers, frequently on items that are stocked in very small numbers (single digits). We looked at a number of products (including some that support major online retailers) so I have some sense of what's out there. Whatever Lego's using, it's either fundamentally broken, badly configured, or (most likely) being fed bad info, i.e. their warehouses report phantom stock, which triggers the "call for availability" message.

Sorry for the long post, this kind of stuff is actually interesting to me and I tend to blather on about it when triggered.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

no problem at all. I've seen so many posts saying that Lego is 'screwing' with us that it and like you were serious.

As to your note about the system being triggered by Phantom stock. I think there are plenty of legit issues that could make a system behave like this. There's failed payments, mistyped 3 digit CC codes, billing addresses not matching, etc that could take the final batch of items and throw them into a temporary state of. .. we're not sure if these are really sold or not.

It might take cs reps several attempts to call customers and untangle all these issues. Some are true failed payments and the item becomes available, some get resolved.

All of this happens all the time but is hidden by the 100's in inventory.

This is just my theory of what we're seeing.

[NJHitmen]

no problem at all. I've seen so many posts saying that Lego is 'screwing' with us that it and like you were serious.

As to your note about the system being triggered by Phantom stock. I think there are plenty of legit issues that could make a system behave like this. There's failed payments, mistyped 3 digit CC codes, billing addresses not matching, etc that could take the final batch of items and throw them into a temporary state of. .. we're not sure if these are really sold or not.

It might take cs reps several attempts to call customers and untangle all these issues. Some are true failed payments and the item becomes available, some get resolved.

All of this happens all the time but is hidden by the 100's in inventory.

This is just my theory of what we're seeing.

 

Just re: the bolded - yes, absolutely. All inventory management systems have to contend with issues like that; frequently payment processing hurdles or errors lead directly to "limbo" stock (units that may or may not actually be available). I'd add shipping mishaps (refused/undeliverable packages) and damaged/defective product as other potential sources.

 

That said, most such systems are able to mitigate these factors (with varying levels of success). Many build in a temporary virtual warehouse. This can be implemented in a number of different ways, but it basically serves as an intermediate step between "in stock" and "out of stock"...inventory only moves from the first state to the second after the transaction has been fully completed/closed. Moving in the other direction requires triggering some other reliable flag, like physical receipt by a warehouse, before the items are actually put back into available inventory.

 

Inventory management systems typically also give you the option to simply set a minimum flag. For example, product X only shows as "in stock" if inventory shows 10 or more units. Lego uses this feature, obviously, but I think the minimum they set is simply too low. It may well be qty 1, which is why we see these status changes so frequently. There's no good reason for that (imo), especially on a high-demand product. It's one thing if you're trying to sell, say, an expensive piece of server hardware that takes up a lot of space. You want to move that thing ASAP if it shows up on your warehouse floor, so you might intentionally choose to have your inventory flag show as available (or "call for availability") even if just one appears to be available. But the SSD? I get that Lego wants to move as much product as they possibly can, but they're ultimately going to sell any SSDs they can produce. The "false positives" aren't really helping anyone, and just irritate the customers that call repeatedly whenever the flag changes.

 

Again, I could ramble on incessantly but I'll cut myself off here.

[Simon_GM]

Alright here is my request: Whenever this set does retire, us brickpickers own the second hand market. So can we all just agree to jack up our prices to like 2,500$?!

[waddamon]

Works for me, $2500 is a good price.  Amazon is approaching 700 and ebay is right at 600.  Once it is officially gone I think it will be 800-900 by Christmas maybe more.

[stephen_rockefeller]

Works for me, $2500 is a good price. Amazon is approaching 700 and ebay is right at 600. Once it is officially gone I think it will be 800-900 by Christmas maybe more.

What are you basing your thoughts on that this set will more than double right after retirement? Seems like extreme wish wishful thinking. I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic.

[marcandre]

Alright here is my request: Whenever this set does retire, us brickpickers own the second hand market. So can we all just agree to jack up our prices to like 2,500$?!

 

Brickpickers are a very small segment of second hand sellers. 

[johnwray]

The joke's on you guys. I'm setting my prices at $2499.

[Simon_GM]

The joke's on you guys. I'm setting my prices at $2499.

LOL

[Bold-Arrow]

What are you basing your thoughts on that this set will more than double right after retirement? Seems like extreme wish wishful thinking. I'm not trying to be negative, just realistic.

I can see 800 on amazon by Christmas provided it doesn't come back in large quantities. Amazon charges higher fees than eBay so the "real" value would obviously be lower . Probably around $650 after fees would be my guess .

[Anakinisvader]

Blame free markets and lower taxes for a more competitive economy in the US

Not for long.

[DoNotInsertIntoMouth]

Yeah its not getting that high that quick. Its high right now because people are panic buying the set. But once  its actually gone I think it will stall some where along the way. Why?

 

Well a lot of investors will try to get rid of some of them at a distant clip to free up space. You are talking about a mammoth amount of space.

 

I don't think this set will ever get past 1200$ and even that is reaching.

[@rtisan]

Yeah its not getting that high that quick. Its high right now because people are panic buying the set. But once  its actually gone I think it will stall some where along the way. Why?

 

Well a lot of investors will try to get rid of some of them at a distant clip to free up space. You are talking about a mammoth amount of space.

 

I don't think this set will ever get past 1200$ and even that is reaching.

That seems like a more realistic take. Even $1500 ceiling, but anyone thinking this will be a another UCS Falcon is wrong. If Lego never again makes an SSD, maybe in 10 years you`de see higher prices, but not in the shorter term (under 5 years). $1500 is more than the max if I were to guess, and even that is overly generous. Even a triple to $1200 would be very impressive.

[stephen_rockefeller]

Yeah even back in the hay day of Lego investing I can't think of a set that doubled right after retirement. EOL fever doesn't lend itself to rational thinking sometimes :)

[waddamon]

It is about 700 right now on amazon. A double is 800 not really that far away. Prices for in demand sets that are 4 years old or more are quite high. Just do the math for the theme and years, good enough for me. Anyone selling this set at 700 IS LACKING A PLAN.

[Ed Mack]

If this set is indeed done within the next several weeks, you will see this set skyrocket.    Basically, it will confirm that LEGO does indeed retire important sets and with the new STAR WARS movies coming out, there will be huge interest in this set.  One has to wonder if investing $500-$700 right now for a MISB set is a wise decision.  I would say yes, especially if the set hits $1500, which it is quite capable of doing.  

[Ed Mack]

It is about 700 right now on amazon. A double is 800 not really that far away. Prices for in demand sets that are 4 years old or more are quite high. Just do the math for the theme and years, good enough for me. Anyone selling this set at 700 IS LACKING A PLAN.

...and a brain as well.