10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[trekgate502]

"I felt a great disturbance in the Supply vs. Demand curve, as if 26 eBay buyers suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."

Are you calling Lego Corp is Emperor Palpatine? Are they saying Do It, Do It, Do It to put down the eBayer's?

I hope not. :)

[waddamon]

Folks, you're missing my point. That was not a prediction of value. The median return for the theme can be applied as a benchmark of expectation. The value at you're end game will depend on when you exit the trade. This is one of the.most iconic of the theme. This set went to $600 in 2 months, that is around 50%. Compound average rate is exactly that. If you annualize the ror you can arrive at a mean rate of return. Nothing is straight line, ever. There would b no reaso to expect a deviation

[cladner]

I figured it would at least be back with some scraps after filling the Backorders. My order status from double VIP has not flipped to in process as of yet and I hope they fill these orders first. I think the limit was 2 then now it is back to 5. Not sure if they were trying to limit the amount of VIP points you could rack up or if they just want to blow them OOS now, wishful thinking

Interesting thing is Emazers told me 100% guarantee that these would be back while Brickshow inside source said they were done.

exactly. the force is strong with Emazers, you should know that dark lord of TRU manager jedi mindtricks.

 

you will override this 20% off code.

i will overirde this 20% off code.

you will accept this made up number as $10 off 50.

i will accept this made up number as $10 off 50.

you will ignore hot price status.

i will ignore hot price status.

 

thank you come again.

thank you come again.

[mudcatsfan]

I am probably repeating someone, but I would think that with Lego being the size they are now, adding a plant in China, and having way too many active sets to have them all in stores as it stands with lots more on the way, they could have a strategy to keep SSD & GE available online from Lego and/or other retails for a significant time.  They have the shelf space in Amazon's Indiana Jones Style warehouse, they could just keep keeping all the big ones alive but online only.  I doubt it will happen, hope it will not happen, but I would think it is not impossible to have a strategy change on offering them via online only for an extended time.

 

I could see this happening Any set you want from here on out available online.............that would end this little investing hobby, but it would be AWESOME as a lego fan.

[trekgate502]

Of course this set could stay around for the next 3 movies for 6 years , along with a re-release of the UCS Millenium Falcon.

If that happened that would stir things up a bit, not in a good way...

[asharerin]

take this with a grain of salt. I spoke to my local lego employee when he sold out of the SSD asking if they were retired or just sold out.  He said only sold out and that the Death star would retire this year before the SSD.  The SSD did come back in stock but then again I never trust what they say.

 

It would make sense to retire a large SW playset to make way for a new large playset.

[hannibal]

Here is another thought....

in 2015 a new movie will be released. In the new movie more battleships will be made and there will be at least 1-2 big bad boys similar to the SSD!

 

Then in the nxt 3-5 years, the sequential movies will contribute with more bad ass sets similar to the 10221.

 

Which means, with the next 3 movies to come, there will be at least 2-3 great new iconical space ships to bear the badge of UCS, together with the "normal" star wars ships all of that being designed in the stidios as we speak.

 

Hence, it makes no sence to have the Sand Crawler, perhaps the Slave and SSD in the next 1-2 years all on the shelves, as they'll be on the way of the new ships. I believe LEGO will be keen to release as soon as possible Lego versions of all the brand new spaceships starting with Episode 7. It would make no sence to the kids seeing all these WOW space ships on the movie and not being able to buy them from the lego shop!

 

Back to 10221...it's long overdue for retirement and I don't see it being available for the next Christmas guys...

 

I have 2 on display, 1 at work and 1 at home. Then more in boxes...

[Ed Mack]

It would make sense to retire a large SW playset to make way for a new large playset.

I thought that new large play set was the Sandcrawler and the old one it was replacing was the SSD. Four UCS sets out at one time is unheard of, but maybe that is the trend with the new movies next year.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[jaisonline]

I thought that new large play set was the Sandcrawler and the old one it was replacing was the SSD. Four UCS sets out at one time is unheard of, but maybe that is the trend with the new movies next year.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

 

 

happy holiday weekend everyone.

 

maybe asharerin meant a more traditional playset like ewok village and jabba's palace.

 

personally i think cloud city might be the last original trilogy playset lego would consider...if it all.  everything else would prob be from the new movies.

[waddamon]

Always remember that there is nothing like the original in movie, toy or collectible form. 10221 will be a sure winner. Lego has created a great opportunity for investors, as well as they had to get stock back to fill the orders. These big sets are very much like buying an ounce of gold. Once you have it you can ignore the price, because it kust does not matter. These are not sets to flip, because you do not know the future. What i mean by this is had we had perfect.knowledge of production and that the shortfall in inventory at ALL retailers was not an issue you could have sold to then buy back in later. The reality is that if we knew that info the marlet would generally know despite a few suckers. In that case the price would not have spiked to $600.00. Invest wisely, onlu what you do not need and you will be fine. Now that i can get more i will. When the price spiked to 600 it made me realize i was under invested. Now i have a chance to rectify that.

[hannibal]

I thought that new large play set was the Sandcrawler and the old one it was replacing was the SSD. Four UCS sets out at one time is unheard of, but maybe that is the trend with the new movies next year.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpick

 

Perhaps I wasn't clear enough due to the fact english isn't my primarily language.

 

I do think the Sand Crawler replaces the SSD, but my point is that in 2-3 years time, there will be brand new ships from the movies which we haven't even seen yet. Some of them will be made immediately into Lego. Hence, having Sand Crawler, SSD, DS or whatever from the current ones and more UCS from those we haven't even seen makes no sense. My logic is that if there is a set who lives long enough to meet the new era of Star Wars ships on the shelves..that would be Sand Crawler.

[naf]

happy holiday weekend everyone.

 

maybe asharerin meant a more traditional playset like ewok village and jabba's palace.

 

personally i think cloud city might be the last original trilogy playset lego would consider...if it all.  everything else would prob be from the new movies.

 

If the new movies flop, they'll move back to original trilogy sets.  Even if they don't flop, the fan base for the OT is too large to completely abandon.  This is especially true with UCS, I think the only non-OT UCS set were the Naboo and Jedi Starfighters?

[Ed Mack]

I really didn't want to complicate things.  My point was that having 4 UCS sets out at the same time hasn't happened to my knowledge, so I'm assuming one will go very soon.  But my second point was that with the new movies coming out, maybe LEGO wants to keep 4 UCS sets on the shelves, so that would override my first point.  LOL.  Now I'm confused.  

[asharerin]

Soon to be 5 sets with the Slave 1. And 6 sets if the rumors are true. I think you stumbled upon the answer you were looking for. The days of stocking all sets available on shelves are over. It would be interesting to see out of the exclusives the ratio of online sales vs physical store sales. My local Lego store has not had GE on the shelf in years but it is still very much available to purchase and sells very well. I don't know of any other retailer in the USA besides TRU NY that even sells exclusives on the shelf (barring online returns). I don't see why storing multiple exclusive sets in a warehouse with unlimited online shelf space would be an issue. I would also expect a $399 flagship set to get 5 years of love. Personally I have not purchased an exclusive instore since BF 2011 when 10210 and 10194 sales stacked with the scratchy card.

 

Put it another way if they retire the SSD then what is going to fill out the $399 price point? I think we will get our answer May 2016.

[Alpinemaps]

SSD is now available on Lego.com, limit of 5.

[No More Monkeys]

SSD is now available on Lego.com, limit of 5.

You missed entire day of lovely discussion about that... :-)

[Alpinemaps]

You missed entire day of lovely discussion about that... :-)

Really? Oops! I was offline for most of the day, other than figuring out I could BOGO Rapunzel polybags yesterday. About as opposite as you can get. Lol

[No More Monkeys]

I am probably repeating someone, but I would think that with Lego being the size they are now, adding a plant in China, and having way too many active sets to have them all in stores as it stands with lots more on the way, they could have a strategy to keep SSD & GE available online from Lego and/or other retails for a significant time. They have the shelf space in Amazon's Indiana Jones Style warehouse, they could just keep keeping all the big ones alive but online only. I doubt it will happen, hope it will not happen, but I would think it is not impossible to have a strategy change on offering them via online only for an extended time.

What's your guess - why didn't they keep Fire Brigade same way you think they might keep GE and SSD?

[Alpinemaps]

Duplicate.

[Ed Mack]

Soon to be 5 sets with the Slave 1. And 6 sets if the rumors are true. I think you stumbled upon the answer you were looking for. The days of stocking all sets available on shelves are over. It would be interesting to see out of the exclusives the ratio of online sales vs physical store sales. My local Lego store has not had GE on the shelf in years but it is still very much available to purchase and sells very well. I don't know of any other retailer in the USA besides TRU NY that even sells exclusives on the shelf (barring online returns). I don't see why storing multiple exclusive sets in a warehouse with unlimited online shelf space would be an issue. I would also expect a $399 flagship set to get 5 years of love. Personally I have not purchased an exclusive instore since BF 2011 when 10210 and 10194 sales stacked with the scratchy card.

 

Put it another way if they retire the SSD then what is going to fill out the $399 price point? I think we will get our answer May 2016.

It looks like we are heading into uncharted territory regardless.  Past history dictates that the SSD would be retiring soon, but all bets are off with these new movies being released.  If I was in charge of LEGO, I wouldn't retire the UCS sets right now.  Even non-STAR WARS exclusives are getting longer production runs.  Why should LEGO stop producing a popular set?  Answer is...they probably won't.

[johnwray]

 

 if 10030 can't hit $2k after 7 or 8 years, i doubt 10221 can even with the higher retail tag.

 

10221 is going to outperform 10030 by a lot. There is only one Executor, but there are oodles of generic star destroyers in the imperial fleet. It's the difference between a clone trooper and Boba Fett. Which would you rather buy and show off if you're going to spend hundreds of dollars: a Star Destroyer? Or THE SUPER Star Destroyer?

 

Interesting thing is Emazers told me 100% guarantee that these would be back while Brickshow inside source said they were done.

 

 To be fair, he had a 50/50 chance of being right.   

[waddamon]

Fundamentals of business and operations management are a fact here. All widgets have a life cycle and the worst thing Lego could do is ignore this. A company never wants to much product. Old products at the end will cannibalize the sales of new products. They have to keep a carefful balance. Otherwise the consumer stops coming back for more. Never forget this. We are witnessing this now and i am not worried in the least. It is a great time to be buying the big stuff. Cycles may be extended but never forever. Consumers will lose interest. This is why the opera house is now available. Years ago there was nothing to replace the tower bridge. I have decided to stop at 30 each of ssd and ds and get 30 Tb rather than 20. Those older sets in the TB theme have serious growth as well.

[Ed Mack]

 

 

 

10221 is going to outperform 10030 by a lot. There is only one Executor, but there are oodles of generic star destroyers in the imperial fleet. It's the difference between a clone trooper and Boba Fett. Which would you rather buy and show off if you're going to spend hundreds of dollars: a Star Destroyer? Or THE SUPER Star Destroyer?

 

 

 To be fair, he had a 50/50 chance of being right.   

 

Problem is, in the world of LEGO, there are going to be a lot more 10221s in existence than 10030s.  

[ZULU]

Assume the worst case scenario for investors: TLG keeps all UCS sets live Online @ SaH. 

What is the advantage?

 

1. They get (marginally) more sales

2. They squeeze out resellers and take better control of the supply chain

 

What is the downside?

 

1. They squeeze out the resellers = their best clients 

2. They need more production capacity

3. They will need more inventory raising working capital

4. They will need to make sure the offer remains clear & attractive (too much product kills the sale)

 

Good business policy at TLG dictates they will not be able to keep all the UCS and modular stuff Online. It would be bad marketing and in the end less sales. 

But what they are testing is that saturation point. What is the Max amount of Modulars before there's a drop in sales growth? What is the max number of UCS sets before people shy away from the entire range as collecting them all is too expensive? 

 

There's history and proof that TLG needs to remain focused. Last time their offering went all over the place, the group went straight to bankrupcy. 

I would expect management to continue retire. Just not the most popular sets too soon. 

 

regards, J

[thehornedrat]

There were signs the SSD was not retired. The Summer catalogue being just the last one. 

There we signs it was EoL too...

>> TLG did a good test of the market nonetheless: the "power" of resellers is huge. 

 

How could they shift it back to themselves and their preferred sales network? Now that's a "Tru" & "Online" question. 

 

Personally I think the SSD will be retired FOR SURE when resellers have too much stock and nobody wants more. DS is already seen as a dog on this forum which will never retire. Maybe that the general sentiment and worse that will be needed before it goes. I'm not sure how the operation process works. How many factory lines TLG can support, how many different models they can assemble at the same time, how many different pieces thay can fabricate and mold. Thhttp://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?sID=323178&itemID=38260910at would be some secret sauce

 

Obviously SSD is a great set, so you need to hedge with a couple. I'm just unsure it's wise to have 25% of my stock in this.

The day the set will retire will be quite interesting. I'm not telling you my expectation date, because that's just "more noice" on the forum. What I do think is, just like with the Fire Brigade, it will allow for a better understanding of TLG's thought process. 

 

One can in fact wonder WHY they did retire that iconic set. Maybe because some HK nutcase has 1265 in stock????

see:

What about that? How come HK is such a hub? Any ideas anybody on this phenomenon?

 

Let's keep our fingers crossed the EoL keep approaching for all those favorite sets. 

 

Best regards

Did you also see how many Unimogs, Tower Bridges, Arkham Assylums, Maersk and HE trains, and Death Stars he got??? He even has 141 of the Lego House!!

Anyway, I'm right. I did say on page 23 its still in production till the end of the year, ergo, not EOL. So now let's see it will last past end of 2014.

 

Addit: looks like the Death Star is also available for US AND in Australia/Europe too! Interestingly enough after months of being OOS in at Myer (an upmarket retail chain store here in Australia) the SSD is also back in stock! So hopefully it won't be long until LEGO Shop at Home says it won't be available for us until July 2nd, other wise I may have to bite the bullet and preorder now, risking them sending me another DS2!! Or maybe just buy at Myer, foregoing the VIP points, at least there won't be any stuffup!!

 

http://www.myer.com.au/shop/mystore/construction-toys/lego-lego-2012-continued-108593830-195784930--1