10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[fredrick_louis]

The reason why the Maersk ship isn't talked about much in the forums is because the set just recently came out. Investors don't buy sets that are going to be available for another 3 years because that money can be spent in better sets that are closer to retirement. Same reason why we don't have pages and pages of every single brand spanking new set LEGO releases. In 2 years, you'll see more attention on the set.

I've been investing in Lego for a year only, but one of my friend who has been investing for years told me the last Maersk ship only lasted 6 month in US. The trains also did not last long right? So I think this one will have a shorter run than people think

[MartinP]

I've been investing in Lego for a year only, but one of my friend who has been investing for years told me the last Maersk ship only lasted 6 month in US. The trains also did not last long right? So I think this one will have a shorter run than people think

According to Brickset.com, the Maersk train lasted for about 1.5 years.

[Mos_Eisley]

I've been investing in Lego for a year only, but one of my friend who has been investing for years told me the last Maersk ship only lasted 6 month in US. The trains also did not last long right? So I think this one will have a shorter run than people think

This ship wont be around for a couple years, but it will be longer than 6 months.

[Mos_Eisley]

[jaisonline]

Just in case no one has done the math. 5 years after EOL the set will have returned an annual compound rate of return of 37.97% at a value of $2000.00. This is pretty much in line with all of the UCS sets, a fairly reasonable median rate. Anywhere along that line of growth is fantastic especially if you are holding quite a bunch,10-40 of these is real money which has zero to do with anything else(other strategies). In my world if we were able to generate anything near those ROR with a high level of certainty and relatively low risk I expect I would be retired by now and I am much too young for that. It always comes down to perspective and understanding to which one measures these things. I know very well what i am measuring against and thus feel supremely confident in the investment. That being said all of the 30-150 RRP dollar stuff will be gone much sooner from my portfolio once they reach 1-3 times RRP. Many are close by the way in a very short period of time.

Hi,

I believe compounded interest doesn't always work like how it was described above for 10221. While a set might have a CAGR of 38%, it isn't the same % every year. Past sets have shown us that a 5 years CAGR of 38% broken down annually might be something random like 120%, 50%, 10%, 10%, and 5%.

Thus why would people want to own this set in year 5 (and maybe even year 4) purely as an investor?

Just in case no one has done the math. 5 years after EOL the set will have returned an annual compound rate of return of 37.97% at a value of $2000.00. This is pretty much in line with all of the UCS sets, a fairly reasonable median rate. Anywhere along that line of growth is fantastic especially if you are holding quite a bunch,10-40 of these is real money which has zero to do with anything else(other strategies). In my world if we were able to generate anything near those ROR with a high level of certainty and relatively low risk I expect I would be retired by now and I am much too young for that. It always comes down to perspective and understanding to which one measures these things. I know very well what i am measuring against and thus feel supremely confident in the investment. That being said all of the 30-150 RRP dollar stuff will be gone much sooner from my portfolio once they reach 1-3 times RRP. Many are close by the way in a very short period of time.

Hi,

I believe compounded interest doesn't always work like how it was described above for 10221. While a set might have a CAGR of 38%, it isn't the same % every year. Past sets have shown us that a 5 years CAGR of 38% broken down annually might be something random like 120%, 50%, 10%, 10%, and 5%.

Thus why would I want to own this set in year 5 (and maybe even year 3) purely as an investor?

If this set does increase to $2k after 4 years, is it worth holding onto it for $100 of extra profit in the 4th yr?

Additionally, not sure if 10221 will be a $2k set 4-5 years after retirement. Not many of the existing UCS sets passed the $2k mark for MISB. Not even the huge 10020 ISD from 2002 is $2k.

If this set does increase to $2k after 4 years, is it worth holding onto it for $100 of extra profit in the 4th yr?

Additionally, not sure if 10221 will be a $2k set 4-5 years after retirement. Not many of the existing UCS sets passed the $2k mark for MISB. Not even the huge 10020 ISD from 2002 is $2k.

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[Pseudoty]

I figured it would at least be back with some scraps after filling the Backorders. My order status from double VIP has not flipped to in process as of yet and I hope they fill these orders first. I think the limit was 2 then now it is back to 5. Not sure if they were trying to limit the amount of VIP points you could rack up or if they just want to blow them OOS now, wishful thinking

Interesting thing is Emazers told me 100% guarantee that these would be back while Brickshow inside source said they were done.

[Mos_Eisley]

I know it was just an example, but there's no way this set is $2k in 5 years (and I mean average selling price, not some fluke auction or graded).

[Legodog]

I figured it would at least be back with some scraps after filling the Backorders. My order status from double VIP has not flipped to in process as of yet and I hope they fill these orders first. I think the limit was 2 then now it is back to 5. Not sure if they were trying to limit the amount of VIP points you could rack up or if they just want to blow them OOS now, wishful thinking

Interesting thing is Emazers told me 100% guarantee that these would be back while Brickshow inside source said they were done.

Same here. My back order from April 3 hasn't flipped yet. I was also assuming they were coming back since they had to fill all those orders from April yet.

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[exciter1]

How about if you factor in a compound investment if you sell at $1000?

[jaisonline]

I know it was just an example, but there's no way this set is $2k in 5 years (and I mean average selling price, not some fluke auction or graded).

 

the poster was using the current 5 year 38% CAGR of UCS sets against 10221's $400 price tag.   personally,, i would wager on the under $2k even after 8 years of retirement.  if 10030 can't hit $2k after 7 or 8 years, i doubt 10221 can even with the higher retail tag.

[chillmodious]

Same here. My back order from April 3 hasn't flipped yet. I was also assuming they were coming back since they had to fill all those orders from April yet.

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Have no fear... I placed an April 3rd order that was still in backorder most of the day and flipped to "In Process" about 2 hours ago. 

[chinothegeeko]

10221 will never see $2000.  Maybe a fluke buy it now here or there. 

[Mos_Eisley]

the poster was using the current 5 year 38% CAGR of UCS sets against 10221's $400 price tag. personally,, i would wager on the under $2k even after 8 years of retirement. if 10030 can't hit $2k after 12 years, i doubt 10221 can even with the higher retail tag.

I agree with you regardless, but 10030 has only been retired for about 7 or 8 years. I'm just going off memory, I didn't verify that though.

[jaisonline]

I agree with you regardless, but 10030 has only been retired for about 7 or 8 years. I'm just going off memory, I didn't verify that though.

 

yeah, you're correct.  my error.  i was thinking about another set. 10030 retired in 2007 or so.  yes, been about 7-8 years then.

 

thanks. i fixed my original post.

[odysea11]

Mine just went to in process also. Here they come......

[Dark Helmet]

take this with a grain of salt. I spoke to my local lego employee when he sold out of the SSD asking if they were retired or just sold out.  He said only sold out and that the Death star would retire this year before the SSD.  The SSD did come back in stock but then again I never trust what they say.

[trekgate502]

I figured it would at least be back with some scraps after filling the Backorders. My order status from double VIP has not flipped to in process as of yet and I hope they fill these orders first. I think the limit was 2 then now it is back to 5. Not sure if they were trying to limit the amount of VIP points you could rack up or if they just want to blow them OOS now, wishful thinking

Interesting thing is Emazers told me 100% guarantee that these would be back while Brickshow inside source said they were done.

 

Did the BrickShow video episode on it and some others really say it is gone and there will be no more?  I was thinking they were saying it is done in stores and headed to retirement.  I can't remember though.  That means that they are emptying out the channel and once LEGO Shop at Home empty's it is over, which could be in a few months and still could happen.  I love the Brickshow videos, but my question is, have they predicted retirement's before and are they normally right?  I don't think they speculate too much on it and they seemed confident on it.  Interesting either way.

[No More Monkeys]

Any reports on physical Lego stores putting SSDs on the shelves?

[c666187]

Any reports on physical Lego stores putting SSDs on the shelves?

The KC lego store had spaceship, spaceship early, but no sign of the SSD.

[Ed Mack]

A couple of quick thoughts...

• I think the SSD will be a $1500 set at some point within 5 years of EOL(similar to the 10030, but slightly higher).  Whether it hits $2000 will depend on EOL and the new movies...and the interest in them.
• It is an iconic set.  Beautiful to look at and display.  A must for every STAR WARS fan.  No excuses.  Buy one or more. Stop wasting time on BS TRU sets.  LOL...
• The Maersk Triple E is a FANTASTIC set.  Great display, but tedious build with all those stickers.  Buy as many as you can.  I see a short run.
• Did I say buy a SSD or Triple E???

[Legodog]

Any reports on physical Lego stores putting SSDs on the shelves?

The employee I talked to said they will not be getting any more in store. She confirmed it with her manager. It means nothing but that's what she said.

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[Ed Mack]

The employee I talked to said they will not be getting any more in store. She confirmed it with her manager. It means nothing but that's what she said.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

They have no space from the looks of it.

[trekgate502]

I am probably repeating someone, but I would think that with Lego being the size they are now, adding a plant in China, and having way too many active sets to have them all in stores as it stands with lots more on the way, they could have a strategy to keep SSD & GE available online from Lego and/or other retails for a significant time.  They have the shelf space in Amazon's Indiana Jones Style warehouse, they could just keep keeping all the big ones alive but online only.  I doubt it will happen, hope it will not happen, but I would think it is not impossible to have a strategy change on offering them via online only for an extended time.

[TheBrickClique]

"I felt a great disturbance in the Supply vs. Demand curve, as if 26 eBay buyers suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."

[jaisonline]

"I felt a great disturbance in the Supply vs. Demand curve, as if 26 eBay buyers suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced. I fear something terrible has happened."

One of today's better posts, +1 like from me