10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[exciter1]

did you really order 5 of these from lego.com?

 

If I did, today would be a good day.

[asharerin]

A good bet would be to buy during triple VIP. An even better bet would be to buy a set that has been out longer.

[waddamon]

I just ordered your five, now you can order mine.

already done my friend. If it holds i will order another 5 next week.

[Ed Mack]

A little off topic, but this did not happen with the original UCS X-Wing. They had to dump those at 50% off to get rid of them at stores. It was a completely different landscape then.

True.  I bought Jeff a 7181 UCS Tie Interceptor for his birthday...way before Brickpicker was even a thought.  I bought it at a regular store like Kmart or Target.  It wasn't a big deal then.  The set ended getting thrown away.  

[waddamon]

nah ah... what about annualized returns? Also, i want to get rich quick, to buy more Lego stuff

go ahead and do the math on that annual compound ror for us. I already know what it is by the way. I have a plan. I also know it takes out in the world risk wise to ever come close, much less when incurring all of the counter party risk.

[jaisonline]

go ahead and do the math on that annual compound ror for us. I already know what it is by the way. I have a plan. I also know it takes out in the world risk wise to ever come close, much less when incurring all of the counter party risk.

I think 95% of sets appreciate the most (ROI-wise) during the first 2 years after retirement. If you think 10221 is in the 5%, then hold on for the fun ride

The 5% use to be a larger % but the refreshes combined with longer retail lives reduced that %.

[donliu]

Nobody knows for sure when this bad boy will go EOL. Just buy them if you want to make money down the road. I know this will only go up once it does happen. For those investing small or big time If you treat this as a stock or fund are you not in it for the long haul? why does it matter if your money is tied up? If u can't let your money do its thing then u obviously need the money. Sit back and and enjoy the ride :)

[trekgate502]

Wow, offline for a little bit, my brick picker iPhone app dings like crazy and my inbox is full.  This topic has exploded today.

Provides a challenge for investing in these for long term large gains or shorter term gains, lower % gains, but possibly quicker flipping for the vw camper or sopwith.

Maybe it should be "all of the above."  Need a new bank account!

[Ed Mack]

Wow, i have to say that this SSD experience has tauht me a lot about people on this board. Most folks have no plan, want a quick buck and have perspectives that change like the wind. A very good representative of the average retail investor that never make any money in the markets over time. That is good for me and only reinforces why these big bets are a good call. All kinds of new opinions after the fact that they came nack into stock. Would these.not have to come back to fill back orders.

Having this set come back into stock will only help the person who likes big sets and has the money to buy them, store them and the time for them to appreciate.  Many smaller investors will pass on these big sets, looking for the quick score.  While the longer production runs will generally hurt all resellers, it can actually help these large sets become "more exclusive" in that many won't want to wait for these sets to go EOL, thus directing their investment dollars towards lower cost and less flashy sets(that do retire in a year or two).  

[No More Monkeys]

Nobody knows for sure when this bad boy will go EOL. Just buy them if you want to make money down the road. I know this will only go up once it does happen. For those investing small or big time If you treat this as a stock or fund are you not in it for the long haul? why does it matter if your money is tied up? If u can't let your money do its thing then u obviously need the money. Sit back and and enjoy the ride

Reinvesting short term gains into sets for another round of short term gain (analog of compound interest with high frequency of compounding) is a viable investing strategy as is the long-term hold strategy. We discussed that already in multiple threads (which usually get locked by Ed due to fruitlessness). Let's try to avoid another "what investment strategy is better" discussion - this will only get this thread locked

[jaisonline]

Having this set come back into stock will only help the person who likes big sets and has the money to buy them, store them and the time for them to appreciate.  Many smaller investors will pass on these big sets, looking for the quick score.  While the longer production runs will generally hurt all resellers, it can actually help these large sets become "more exclusive" in that many won't want to wait for these sets to go EOL, thus directing their investment dollars towards lower cost and less flashy sets(that do retire in a year or two).  

 

hey ed, i totally understand your logic.  however, aren't you worried that people who will want this set down the road will just buy it now at retail (or when it retires especially it retires in 2015 or 2016) ?  the longer it's available in stores, more people will not need / want it from people like us after it retires. 

 

now if you think future demand will even exceed the 'vast' supply since 2011, you answered my concern

[No More Monkeys]

hey ed, i totally understand your logic.  however, aren't you worried that people who will want this set down the road will just buy it now at retail (or when it retires especially it retires in 2015 or 2016) ?  the longer it's available in stores, more people will not need / want it from people like us after it retires. 

 

now if you think future demand will even exceed the 'vast' supply since 2011, you answered my concern

what's that proverb? A sucker ... uhm, wait... AFOL born every minute? 

[mudcatsfan]

hey ed, i totally understand your logic. however, aren't you worried that people who will want this set down the road will just buy it now at retail (or when it retires especially it retires in 2015 or 2016) ? the longer it's available in stores, more people will not need / want it from people like us after it retires.

now if you think future demand will even exceed the 'vast' supply since 2011, you answered my concern

I know I'm not Ed, but I think the answer had to do with how few people are ready to pony up the 425 to invest vs how many DO want the set and will pay 800 to avoid paying 2000 or never getting it at all.

[jaisonline]

what's that proverb? A sucker ... uhm, wait... AFOL born every minute? 

 

 

very true. however, it seems sets are produced in greater quantity and for longer durations than before 2011.  the annual revenue reports seem to support this as TLG is now the #1 toy manufacturer.   

 

the exception is something like the fire brigade since that entire theme has a cult (in a good way) following.

[jaisonline]

I know I'm not Ed, but I think the answer had to do with how few people are ready to pony up the 425 to invest vs how many DO want the set and will pay 800 to avoid paying 2000 or never getting it at all.

 

true.  i'm just 'concerned' those future AFOLs you speak of that are willing to pony up $800 later will now be able to buy 10220s at retail (for X more months / years) before the price hits $800 (or something new comes along like a "super duper star destroyer"   )

 

case in point = the 10188 Death Star.  think about all the people who spent $330 to $400 buying them regularly since 2010 thinking it would retire. 

4 years later, the future AFOLs those early 10188 investors were banking on are still sitting on their sets. 

 

The Tower Bridge is in the same boat.

[No More Monkeys]

very true. however, it seems sets are produced in greater quantity and for longer durations than before 2011.  the annual revenue reports seem to support this as TLG is now the #1 toy manufacturer.   

 

the exception is something like the fire brigade since that entire theme has a cult (in a good way) following.

At the same time, Lego is  definitely ramping up marketing efforts, providing more exposure, creating (hopefully) more demand

[JRandall]

Having this set come back into stock will only help the person who likes big sets and has the money to buy them, store them and the time for them to appreciate.  Many smaller investors will pass on these big sets, looking for the quick score.  While the longer production runs will generally hurt all resellers, it can actually help these large sets become "more exclusive" in that many won't want to wait for these sets to go EOL, thus directing their investment dollars towards lower cost and less flashy sets(that do retire in a year or two).  

I've always had a subconcious level of fear that due to Lego greatly increasing production ability and growing at such a fast pace all over the world, that they are now capable of re-producing sets within weeks if they want to bring something back into production or producing sets at a lower cost and therefore keeping any set they want in production for as long as they want without really hurting their bottom line anymore.  I really do wonder sometimes if the resellers buying up all the stocks of certain "hot" sets on Lego.com move their hand to continue production runs, or if they test certain metrics and find that something continues to sell that they will keep producing a few hundred of them per month because it's so cheap to do so now.  This is the question moving forward, and also how many of specific sets really are "stored away" amongst brickpickers for the future whether to use or sell.

[JRandall]

very true. however, it seems sets are produced in greater quantity and for longer durations than before 2011.  the annual revenue reports seem to support this as TLG is now the #1 toy manufacturer.   

 

the exception is something like the fire brigade since that entire theme has a cult (in a good way) following.

Yeah, and this is one reason I slowed down my buying over the past month or two because there's a large possibility they can produce sets cheaper and continue to produce them for as long as they want without incurring any serious loss due to growing sales and production ability.  The fact they brought out literally dozens of new sets this Summer alone and increased prices across the board "it seems like" for sets that may have been cheaper in the past; this is something I've worried about.

[JRandall]

true.  i'm just 'concerned' those future AFOLs you speak of that are willing to pony up $800 later will now be able to buy 10220s at retail (for X more months / years) before the price hits $800 (or something new comes along like a "super duper star destroyer"   )

 

case in point = the 10188 Death Star.  think about all the people who spent $330 to $400 buying them regularly since 2010 thinking it would retire. 

4 years later, the future AFOLs those early 10188 investors were banking on are still sitting on their sets. 

 

The Tower Bridge is in the same boat.

The only thing we can hope for is that the Tower bridge's cost and niche design will make it a very wanted set into the far future if and when it does retire.  You can't really remake a new version of the Tower Bridge the same way you can a Star Wars ship or Star Wars iconic landscape/scene.  Tower Bridge is extremely unique, but the question is how long will it take before they move on to the next "Tower Bridge" type landscape set, because as soon as they do I wouldn't be surprised to see Tower Bridge price increases dwarf what we're seeing for the "FB,GEs etc, Star Wars" type sets.  That's just my own opinion, but I think the uniqueness and the ability for it to be a great display piece catering to those overseas also will be a huge buying point, the same reason I bought some Maersk sets and believe it's a huge sleeper.

[Mos_Eisley]

Nothing with "Maersk" in the title should ever be considered a sleeper.

[comicblast]

The only thing we can hope for is that the Tower bridge's cost and niche design will make it a very wanted set into the far future if and when it does retire.  You can't really remake a new version of the Tower Bridge the same way you can a Star Wars ship or Star Wars iconic landscape/scene.  Tower Bridge is extremely unique, but the question is how long will it take before they move on to the next "Tower Bridge" type landscape set, because as soon as they do I wouldn't be surprised to see Tower Bridge price increases dwarf what we're seeing for the "FB,GEs etc, Star Wars" type sets.  That's just my own opinion, but I think the uniqueness and the ability for it to be a great display piece catering to those overseas also will be a huge buying point, the same reason I bought some Maersk sets and believe it's a huge sleeper.

The reason why the Maersk ship isn't talked about much in the forums is because the set just recently came out. Investors don't buy sets that are going to be available for another 3 years because that money can be spent in better sets that are closer to retirement. Same reason why we don't have pages and pages of every single brand spanking new set LEGO releases. In 2 years, you'll see more attention on the set.

[johnwray]

I think I'm seeing a pattern emerge. These scenarios seem to play out thusly

[waddamon]

I think I'm seeing a pattern emerge. These scenarios seem to play out thusly

[binici]

I think I'm seeing a pattern emerge. These scenarios seem to play out thusly

[waddamon]

nah ah... what about annualized returns? Also, i want to get rich quick, to buy more Lego stuff

Just in case no one has done the math.  5 years after EOL the set will have returned an annual compound rate of return of 37.97% at a value of $2000.00.  This is pretty much in line with all of the UCS sets, a fairly reasonable median rate.  Anywhere along that line of growth is fantastic especially if you are holding quite a bunch,10-40 of these is real money which has zero to do with anything else(other strategies).  In my world if we were able to generate anything near those ROR with a high level of certainty and relatively low risk I expect I would be retired by now and I am much too young for that.  It always comes down to perspective and  understanding to which one measures these things.  I know very well what i am measuring against and thus feel supremely confident in the investment.  That being said all of the 30-150 RRP dollar stuff will be gone much sooner from my portfolio once they reach 1-3 times RRP.  Many are close by the way in a very short period of time.