10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[Bold-Arrow]

Whether you believed the retirement hype or not, having this set become available once again hurts all LEGO investors. Having a large exclusive like this retire after a 3 year run would have been a bonus. Now, this set becomes a huge question mark for some investors and sets a bad precedent for future large(and expensive) set investments.

There were few indicators that this thing wasn't done just yet. I personally wouldn't read too much about large sets coming back in stock at this point.

It will also be interesting to see how long Lego continue to carry the SSD and whether other retailers will have them in stock in any significant quantities

[Gooker1]

Whether you believed the retirement hype or not, having this set become available once again hurts all LEGO investors.  Having a large exclusive like this retire after a 3 year run would have been a bonus.  Now, this set becomes a huge question mark for some investors and sets a bad precedent for future large(and expensive) set investments.  

I don't think it's a negative at all.  How many do you think are back out there on the market?  Everyone saw what the potential retirement did to the price on eBay, so why would it be any different when it completely retires?  It could still easily retire in a month or two or the end of the year. 

 

[jaisonline]

Whether you believed the retirement hype or not, having this set become available once again hurts all LEGO investors.  Having a large exclusive like this retire after a 3 year run would have been a bonus.  Now, this set becomes a

 

huge question mark for some investors and sets a bad precedent for future large(and expensive) set investments.  

 

ditto what the boss said.

 

let's just hope this doesn't become a TRU exclusive after it's retired.

[electrichead]

Whether you believed the retirement hype or not, having this set become available once again hurts all LEGO investors.  Having a large exclusive like this retire after a 3 year run would have been a bonus.  Now, this set becomes a huge question mark for some investors and sets a bad precedent for future large(and expensive) set investments.  

 

I am a collector and not really an investor. IMO, I don't see this taking away from my opinion of the long term gains on this or any other future large sets. The ones who will be most affected will be those who are hoping for a short term profit, like the quick gains on FB. Those willing to be patient as with most of the large sets/ large exclusives will undoubtedly be rewarded.

[jaisonline]

I don't think it's a negative at all.  How many do you think are back out there on the market?  Everyone saw what the potential retirement did to the price on eBay, so why would it be any different when it completely retires?  It could still easily retire in a month or two or the end of the year. 

 

 

comes down to supply vs demand.

 

now there's more supply at $399.99 retail for those demanding it.  just have to hope it's the last batch.

[Mos_Eisley]

Whether you believed the retirement hype or not, having this set become available once again hurts all LEGO investors. Having a large exclusive like this retire after a 3 year run would have been a bonus. Now, this set becomes a huge question mark for some investors and sets a bad precedent for future large(and expensive) set investments.

The thing is that this set was never going anywhere, not yet anyway. So this wasn't a case of TLG bringing something back, it was just people overreacting to a temporary shortage. The real damage is that when it does really retire, it's not going to climb like it did during this false alarm. It will climb, but at a slower rate as many will be adding extra SSDs to their inventory that they wouldn't have otherwise had.

[exciter1]

The thing is that this set was never going anywhere, not yet anyway. So this wasn't a case of TLG bringing something back, it was just people overreacting to a temporary shortage. The real damage is that when it does really retire, it's not going to climb like it did during this false alarm. It will climb, but at a slower rate as many will be adding extra SSDs to their inventory that they wouldn't have otherwise had.

 

I think similar example was the Jabba's Palace 10 day scare, now it's just climbing slowly.

[jaisonline]

The thing is that this set was never going anywhere, not yet anyway. So this wasn't a case of TLG bringing something back, it was just people overreacting to a temporary shortage. The real damage is that when it does really retire, it's not going to climb like it did during this false alarm. It will climb, but at a slower rate as many will be adding extra SSDs to their inventory that they wouldn't have otherwise had.

 

good summary.   ed and yourself appear to be saying the same.

 

my 3 cents.... this is kinda like Jabba's Palace in April 2013.  main diff here is the set had a chance to retire (yes, i know shop@home stated "temporary sold-out").   oh well, this is how the cookie crumbles nowadays at lego's table.

 

still... ed is spot on.  10221 retiring after 3 years would have been sweet.   now who knows how long it will be available.  hopefully, target and walmart will noit be getting more.

[mudcatsfan]

Whether you believed the retirement hype or not, having this set become available once again hurts all LEGO investors.  Having a large exclusive like this retire after a 3 year run would have been a bonus.  Now, this set becomes a huge question mark for some investors and sets a bad precedent for future large(and expensive) set investments.  

 

I respectfully disagree. This is only bad for those that already have a bunch and were hoping to offload.

 

Its wonderful for those who still want to stock up. Items like this seem to go in and out of stock many times over the course of their lifetime, and we in this moment (last 3-4 years) have put incredible scrutiny over each dip, each word phrase change on every vendor site to try to read the tea leaves.

 

I think if they're all gone by the end of today nobody 6 months or 6 years from now will know this even happened. Who's to say this exact thing didn't happen with the original UCS XWing when it retired? 

[Ed Mack]

"Hype", interesting perspective.  They have to fill back orders and it increased by 40-50% in price immediately on ebay and amazon.  How is that "Hype"?

 

I don't think it's a negative at all.  How many do you think are back out there on the market?  Everyone saw what the potential retirement did to the price on eBay, so why would it be any different when it completely retires?  It could still easily retire in a month or two or the end of the year. 

 

I don't know if this set will still be available in 2 weeks or two years, but what I do know is it was a set that had a three year production run, which in the past, would have been the end of line for many LEGO sets.  Now, this set may stick around for another 2 years and short term investors will suffer because they can't flip and long term investors will have money tied up for years with nothing to show for it.  

 

Now it would have been nice to see this set retire after 3 years and it still might in a month or two, but I'm afraid that we are seeing many more sets, especially large ones, with extended production runs.  That is not good for any reseller or investor and will force many people to invest in smaller, non-exclusive sets...the ones that actually retire.

[jaisonline]

I think similar example was the Jabba's Palace 10 day scare, now it's just climbing slowly.

 

jeez man.  we are thinking way to alike. pur posted were pretty much published at the same exact time

[mudcatsfan]

I suppose it's wrong if you don't think it's coming back again. If you think there will be a supply forthcoming, A person could sell 10 or so, and come away with an extra $400, to reinvest in more SSD's.

 

Timely

[Dbroncoboy]

good summary.   ed and yourself appear to be saying the same.

 

my 3 cents.... this is kinda like Jabba's Palace in April 2013.  main diff here is the set had a chance to retire (yes, i know shop@home stated "temporary sold-out").   oh well, this is how the cookie crumbles nowadays at lego's table.

 

still... ed is spot on.  10221 retiring after 3 years would have been sweet.   now who knows how long it will be available.  hopefully, target and walmart will noit be getting more.

 

Walmart will be getting some of the destroyed ones they sent me back :-) I'll make sure to send them back like they sent them to me. 

[jaisonline]

I don't know if this set will still be available in 2 weeks or two years, but what I do know is it was a set that had a three year production run, which in the past, would have been the end of line for many LEGO sets.  Now, this set may stick around for another 2 years and short term investors will suffer because they can't flip and long term investors will have money tied up for years with nothing to show for it.  

 

Now it would have been nice to see this set retire after 3 years and it still might in a month or two, but I'm afraid that we are seeing many more sets, especially large ones, with extended production runs.  That is not good for any reseller or investor and will force many people to invest in smaller, non-exclusive sets...the ones that actually retire.

 

ed,  i agree 100%  and am now beginning to think we need a blog about "supply vs. demand". 

 

note for others. 10221 isn't simply another fire brigade or winter set where people want to have each set in the theme.  this being available again does sting.  what happens if it turns into another tower bridge or 10188?

[kenchu2000]

Jabba Palace is not done yet.  Every TRU store I went to still have some on the shelves.

[jaisonline]

Jabba Palace is not done yet.  Every TRU store I went to still have some on the shelves.

 

quick off-topic comment.

yes, it's done being made.  some tru stores still have them because they like to charge $160+ for it.

[jaisonline]

hopefully, i won't have to start selling these t-shirts soon like my tower bridge version.

 

 

[Gooker1]

I don't know if this set will still be available in 2 weeks or two years, but what I do know is it was a set that had a three year production run, which in the past, would have been the end of line for many LEGO sets.  Now, this set may stick around for another 2 years and short term investors will suffer because they can't flip and long term investors will have money tied up for years with nothing to show for it.  

 

Now it would have been nice to see this set retire after 3 years and it still might in a month or two, but I'm afraid that we are seeing many more sets, especially large ones, with extended production runs.  That is not good for any reseller or investor and will force many people to invest in smaller, non-exclusive sets...the ones that actually retire.

Agree if it's extended another two years, but therein lies the rub.  No one outside of Lego truly know how long this is gonna last.  I've spoken w/ two different managers at Lego Stores, and they both said the same thing.  They're not supposed to be getting anymore in their stores.  Whether that means it will just be online is anyone's guess.  They could be surprised and get some more.  And yes...I'm using the "what someone at Lego said," but being in LA, there are a handful of stores in the SoCal area, and the two I spoke w/ said the same thing.  And these are high volume stores if that means anything. 

 

It's definitely a wait and see approach from here on out.

 

[ZULU]

There were signs the SSD was not retired. The Summer catalogue being just the last one. 

There we signs it was EoL too...

>> TLG did a good test of the market nonetheless: the "power" of resellers is huge. 

 

How could they shift it back to themselves and their preferred sales network? Now that's a "Tru" & "Online" question. 

 

Personally I think the SSD will be retired FOR SURE when resellers have too much stock and nobody wants more. DS is already seen as a dog on this forum which will never retire. Maybe that the general sentiment and worse that will be needed before it goes. I'm not sure how the operation process works. How many factory lines TLG can support, how many different models they can assemble at the same time, how many different pieces thay can fabricate and mold. That would be some secret sauce

 

Obviously SSD is a great set, so you need to hedge with a couple. I'm just unsure it's wise to have 25% of my stock in this.

The day the set will retire will be quite interesting. I'm not telling you my expectation date, because that's just "more noice" on the forum. What I do think is, just like with the Fire Brigade, it will allow for a better understanding of TLG's thought process. 

 

One can in fact wonder WHY they did retire that iconic set. Maybe because some HK nutcase has 1265 in stock????

see: http://www.bricklink.com/store.asp?sID=323178&itemID=38260910

What about that? How come HK is such a hub? Any ideas anybody on this phenomenon?

 

Let's keep our fingers crossed the EoL keep approaching for all those favorite sets. 

 

Best regards

[Ed Mack]

The thing is that this set was never going anywhere, not yet anyway. So this wasn't a case of TLG bringing something back, it was just people overreacting to a temporary shortage. The real damage is that when it does really retire, it's not going to climb like it did during this false alarm. It will climb, but at a slower rate as many will be adding extra SSDs to their inventory that they wouldn't have otherwise had.

I knew you(and a few others) stated that the SSD was going nowhere.  I know you have your inside info, which is always spot, so my head told me to expect another run, but there was always a chance it could have went EOL.  It would have been a nice surprise.  It still may go EOL in August, but the trend seems to be August of 2015 or 2016, and that makes investing in these large sets very questionable for some.

 

Personally, it doesn't matter to me from an investment point of view.  I buy and sit on these sets, so what does it really matter to me?  It gives me an opportunity to buy more of this set, which in my mind is still one of the best investment choices out there.  Many people get a second chance today to buy this set, so take advantage of it...

[jaisonline]

hey, don't get me wrong.  this is perfect for those wanting to pay only retail to build this gigantic 2 shades of gray anaconda.

 

for investors, this isn't so good unless it still retires this year.  for every month it's available at retail, means less people buying it on ebay, bricklink, etc... from people like us.

[StarPod]

Maybe lego got some inside info from disney and learned that SSD will be featured in VII. Wouldnt that be magnificent   

[No More Monkeys]

One interesting observation is that TRU did not get any SSDs (yet). Usually, TRU would show a few TOOS sets available couple of weeks in advance before any other retailer, including SAH itself (like it was the case for rovers and AS, though i am not sure if those are proper comparable examples)

[gregpj]

One interesting observation is that TRU did not get any SSDs (yet). Usually, TRU would show a few TOOS sets available couple of weeks in advance before any other retailer, including SAH itself (like it was the case for rovers and AS, though i am not sure if those are proper comparable examples)

 

TRU Canada has them in stock online.

 

(S@H Canada is still TOOS but allows adding to your cart)

[redghostx]

I am relatively new so my viewpoint may be different but I see it as an opportunity to grab one or two more (small time investor so 4-5 will be enough for me). I never looked at this set as a quick hold and sell set and view a realistic selling window of late 2015-2016. If that gets pushed back 6 months then so be it.

I still look it at from the perspective that it will make money but it will take longer and that's OK. My money (In Lego) is still happy because it is still appreciating.

My only concerns are if this set is indefinite (unknown quantity) and that the short term sellers are the most likely to be affected (known quantity).

The end result is that if you are still looking at this set and have the funds, then you have no reason not to own it now.

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