Ed Mack Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 If I had any SSD's, I'd still be holding them. That's mainly because of the time commitment involved in packing and shipping. But it's not risk-free to hold either. You are running the risk of, aside from the possibility of general decline of interest in Lego, a possible remake of 10030 (as with 10240). I also would not be buying this set as an investment at the current secondary market price, as some have suggested here in the past. The great thing about Lego investing as opposed to buying stocks or real estate is that in effect you continually get new chances to buy in at the bottom. Not with this particular set, of course, but there are always other desirable Lego sets retiring. Just be patient and wait for the next train rather than running to catch up with this one.You are stretching it....General decline in LEGO? Remake of another set? I am not telling people to buy this set now at $700.00, but a case could be made for that. I have done that in the past and it has paid off handsomely. I am telling people that currently own the SSD to wait a year. This set has the potential to increase hundreds of dollars in the next year or so, what will you flip into that can do that? Quote
GhostDad Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Last Fall, I advised anyone who wanted to buy this set for $700 to buy 4 GE instead and pocket the difference. If they'd done that then, they'd be better off now. There's always something else retiring. SSD might appreciate hundreds of dollars from here, but over what time span? And the greater your buy-in price, the greater your loss if a similar set like 10030 is remade or there is a general decline in Lego popularity. Lego isn't beanie babies, but iconic brands have fallen before. 1 Quote
Mathew Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 (edited) I'm not sure that the new films will have that great of impact on older Star Wars sets. There will be a ton of new toys for kids. And I think that the generation that grew up with the OT are now middle aged and perhaps growing beyond trying to relive their childhood. And like GD said there is always a chance that Lego will dip in popularity. Edited February 25, 2015 by Mathew Quote
Val-E Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Hype is what it is. We could well see people getting sick of SW and LEGO due to overexposure. I think that there will be a sweet spot between October and December to sell off all old SW sets but after that they may well dip in popularity and at that time the money would be better of invested in other lines. Time will tell. Quote
Ed Mack Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Last Fall, I advised anyone who wanted to buy this set for $700 to buy 4 GE instead and pocket the difference. If they'd done that then, they'd be better off now. There's always something else retiring. SSD might appreciate hundreds of dollars from here, but over what time span? And the greater your buy-in price, the greater your loss if a similar set like 10030 is remade or there is a general decline in Lego popularity. Lego isn't beanie babies, but iconic brands have fallen before. That was last fall when there were retiring sets that were worthy of flipping into. What about now? What is going to retire? Which set(s) will retire that will outgain an iconic STAR WARS LEGO set in the all time prime time hyped market? I am talking about the next year...to spring of next year. If the SSD doesn't approach the $900.00 level by this time next year, I would be shocked. As for the iconic brand falling argument, I guess it's time to unload my stash. Quote
jaisonline Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 You are stretching it....General decline in LEGO? Remake of another set? I am not telling people to buy this set now at $700.00, but a case could be made for that. I have done that in the past and it has paid off handsomely. I am telling people that currently own the SSD to wait a year. This set has the potential to increase hundreds of dollars in the next year or so, what will you flip into that can do that? Ed, Someone folks don't understand the potential of this set. It has the perfect storm helping it. SW is going to be way huge which is reason I'm holding onto my "special" Lego SW sets and vintage MISB & prototype Kenner toys. Additionally, we might not see another Lego SW set of this size for a while especially at the $400 price tag. 1 Quote
Ed Mack Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure that the new films will have that great of impact on older Star Wars sets. There will be a ton of new toys for kids. And I think that the generation that grew up with the OT are now middle aged and perhaps growing beyond trying to relive their childhood. And like GD said there is always a chance that Lego will dip in popularity. It already has affected many older STAR WARS sets increase over the past months and we are not close to the new movie. 1 Quote
Alpinemaps Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 You are stretching it....General decline in LEGO? Remake of another set? I am not telling people to buy this set now at $700.00, but a case could be made for that. I have done that in the past and it has paid off handsomely. I am telling people that currently own the SSD to wait a year. This set has the potential to increase hundreds of dollars in the next year or so, what will you flip into that can do that? Just to argue the counterpoint today... Series 1 Mixels. Seriously. I have far greater returns on S1 Mixels than on SSDs. Mixels have sold at 2.75x RRP for me, while the SSD has performed at 1.8x RRP for me. I bought into both sets this past summer/fall. The argument shouldn't be that "this set has the potential to increase hundreds of dollars in the next year or so," because, relatively to the buy in price, that's not really that much. The SSD already appreciated hundreds of dollars for me - at an RRP of $400, selling at $725 is "hundreds of dollars." But, relative to the RRP, I haven't doubled my money. Meanwhile, Mixels Series 1 increased tens of dollars for me. On one set. But when you compare apples to apples - equal investments of $400 in both Mixels and SSD, you'll see nearly 3x your investment back in Mixels. I definitely saw hundreds of dollars of appreciation on those sets. I'm a believer in the SSD. I'm sure it will perform just fine. But it's not the right set for everyone to invest in. Quote
johnwray Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I'm not sure that the new films will have that great of impact on older Star Wars sets. There will be a ton of new toys for kids. And I think that the generation that grew up with the OT are now middle aged and perhaps growing beyond trying to relive their childhood. As a member of that generation, I can tell you that if the new movies are big, middle-aged dads will have renewed interest in sharing the old ones with their kids. "Oh, man, that was awesome! Bobby, let me dig out my dvds of the original trilogy. Just wait til you see Empire Strikes Back!" Nostalgia's a helluva drug. Quote
Ciglione Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 People around 40 or 50 tend to get this thing called "Midlife Crisis". You can tell when they start to look for attention from other women, get their motorcycle drivers license and buy Super Star Destroyers. 2 Quote
Mos_Eisley Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Just to argue the counterpoint today... Series 1 Mixels. Seriously. I have far greater returns on S1 Mixels than on SSDs. Mixels have sold at 2.75x RRP for me, while the SSD has performed at 1.8x RRP for me. I bought into both sets this past summer/fall. The argument shouldn't be that "this set has the potential to increase hundreds of dollars in the next year or so," because, relatively to the buy in price, that's not really that much. The SSD already appreciated hundreds of dollars for me - at an RRP of $400, selling at $725 is "hundreds of dollars." But, relative to the RRP, I haven't doubled my money. Meanwhile, Mixels Series 1 increased tens of dollars for me. On one set. But when you compare apples to apples - equal investments of $400 in both Mixels and SSD, you'll see nearly 3x your investment back in Mixels. I definitely saw hundreds of dollars of appreciation on those sets. I'm a believer in the SSD. I'm sure it will perform just fine. But it's not the right set for everyone to invest in. There are always exceptions, but generally speaking, you aren't going to unload a set like the SSD and immediately dump all that into another set that is going to perform as well as quickly. I guess everyone could dump all their SSDs and reinvest in Series 3 and 4 Mixels, but that probably wouldn't be a great idea. Quote
Alpinemaps Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 As a member of that generation, I can tell you that if the new movies are big, middle-aged dads will have renewed interest in sharing the old ones with their kids. "Oh, man, that was awesome! Bobby, let me dig out my dvds of the original trilogy. Just wait til you see Empire Strikes Back!" Nostalgia's a helluva drug. I have an almost 3 year old son. I don't own any Death Stars. I am seriously considering changing that status, and putting that away for a couple of years. Just so we have one to build. 1 Quote
minicoopers11 Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I have an almost 3 year old son. I don't own any Death Stars. I am seriously considering changing that status, and putting that away for a couple of years. Just so we have one to build. Get at least one to build, please. Double VIP is coming up! Don't miss this one... 1 Quote
Darth_Raichu Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I say let them sell for their 2x. They will then be out of the game and wont have to worry about them messing with our profits later on +10 to this. Anyone should sell whenever it fits with their plans and goals, enough with the herd mentality already Quote
Alpinemaps Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 There are always exceptions, but generally speaking, you aren't going to unload a set like the SSD and immediately dump all that into another set that is going to perform as well as quickly. I guess everyone could dump all their SSDs and reinvest in Series 3 and 4 Mixels, but that probably wouldn't be a great idea. Of course there are exceptions. And I'm only thinking about retired sets, not something that has a potential to grow, that is currently for sale. Of course, if Death Star retires tomorrow, then the answer would change. But there are other sets out there that have outperformed the growth on SSD as well. Just running some quick numbers on retired sets: Haunted House, Fire Brigade, Town Hall, Research Institute and Mars Rover have all outperformed SSD. None of those are still available. (I smell a blog post coming on). Here's a bottom line answer why you might dump your SSDs and reinvest - diversification. I don't buy the argument that it takes that much more of your time to pack and ship 9 sets of Mixels vs 1 SSD. Relatively speaking, the amount of time difference is minimal. But, at the end of the day, it's much "easier" to swallow the $400 over 9 sets of Mixels than over one SSD. Or 20 RIs. Or a mix of those. Quote
GhostDad Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 (edited) Well, the choice between 4 x GE and 1 x SSD (at $700) last Fall was an easy one, since Lego had made fairly clear GE was about to retire. Limit 2 down from 5 (I know, look at DS, but usually that means something), and it had been almost a year since FB retired. I'll admit it's harder to say what one should buy now; most of the good stuff retired last year, just came out, or is limit 5 and available everywhere. The obvious exclusive answers are TB, PS, DS, and T1. Great sets that have already far outlived your typical Lego set. The new SD and AT-AT are also likely to be good picks, and unlikely to live out the year based on a normal SW lifespan. Anyway, I wish I owned a stack of SSD but I don't. If I did own them, I'd hold at least until the first of the new movies comes out. No argument there. But if I had $740 or so burning a hole in my pocket right now, I'd look for something I could pick up at MSRP or below. One thing I have noticed lately is that when sets retire, they get a growth spurt for a few months, then slow down a lot. It's that initial jump in price I try to capture with my investments, and that generally means buying pre-retirement. Edit: To save Trek some time, I'll mention 10240. It probably does retire this year, and may be out of production already. It's gone most places, but was still available at LEGO Shop at Home last time I looked. 10237 is another probably on its way out, that I have either too few or too many of, depending on whether it can outshine its LotR brethren. Edited February 25, 2015 by GhostDad Quote
Ed Mack Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Just to argue the counterpoint today... Series 1 Mixels. Seriously. I have far greater returns on S1 Mixels than on SSDs. Mixels have sold at 2.75x RRP for me, while the SSD has performed at 1.8x RRP for me. I bought into both sets this past summer/fall. The argument shouldn't be that "this set has the potential to increase hundreds of dollars in the next year or so," because, relatively to the buy in price, that's not really that much. The SSD already appreciated hundreds of dollars for me - at an RRP of $400, selling at $725 is "hundreds of dollars." But, relative to the RRP, I haven't doubled my money. Meanwhile, Mixels Series 1 increased tens of dollars for me. On one set. But when you compare apples to apples - equal investments of $400 in both Mixels and SSD, you'll see nearly 3x your investment back in Mixels. I definitely saw hundreds of dollars of appreciation on those sets. I'm a believer in the SSD. I'm sure it will perform just fine. But it's not the right set for everyone to invest in. I understand your point, but that was then...I am talking right NOW. What set(s) would you sell a SSD and flip the money into that will outperform the SSD over the next year? Mixels? They are done. Everyone is buying them now, just like the CMFs after Series 1. Gun to your head...what would you buy? LOL Quote
No More Monkeys Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Of course there are exceptions. And I'm only thinking about retired sets, not something that has a potential to grow, that is currently for sale. Of course, if Death Star retires tomorrow, then the answer would change. But there are other sets out there that have outperformed the growth on SSD as well. Just running some quick numbers on retired sets: Haunted House, Fire Brigade, Town Hall, Research Institute and Mars Rover have all outperformed SSD. None of those are still available. (I smell a blog post coming on). Here's a bottom line answer why you might dump your SSDs and reinvest - diversification. I don't buy the argument that it takes that much more of your time to pack and ship 9 sets of Mixels vs 1 SSD. Relatively speaking, the amount of time difference is minimal. But, at the end of the day, it's much "easier" to swallow the $400 over 9 sets of Mixels than over one SSD. Or 20 RIs. Or a mix of those. At the time it became clear that Mixels are hot, series 1 (and even series 2) was difficult or impossible to obtain. Before it was clear - it was a gamble. Are you buying Series 3 aggressively right now? Quote
marcandre Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I would trade an SSD for three Sea Cows right now. I think 3 cows will be worth more than one SSD in 2 years. That's about the only set out there I would move one for. I don't think I can get 750 after fees for a ssd anyways. Quote
StarPod Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Off topic. But is the new star wars being released in China. Recently a quarter of my sales have come from China. In my opinion this type demand could turn into another golden age 1 Quote
Alpinemaps Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 I understand your point, but that was then...I am talking right NOW. What set(s) would you sell a SSD and flip the money into that will outperform the SSD over the next year? Mixels? They are done. Everyone is buying them now, just like the CMFs after Series 1. Gun to your head...what would you buy? LOL Great question. I would diversify a bit. I would go with RIs (if you can still get them), Sea Cow, Fairground Mixer, and Benny's Spaceship. Benny's Spaceship especially at $50 is a fantastic deal. Or ToO. That's another set to grab before it's gone. Quote
fuzzy_bricks Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 At the time it became clear that Mixels are hot, series 1 (and even series 2) was difficult or impossible to obtain. Before it was clear - it was a gamble. Are you buying Series 3 aggressively right now? I was going to mention something similar. I think Alpine had a couple honeyholes for these after they were on the rise, but maybe he was scooping them up before then. Gun to your head...what would you buy? LOL Bulletproof helmet. 4 Quote
No More Monkeys Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Is it a lego gun? No, it is tag scan gun from Walmart Quote
No More Monkeys Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 Great question. I would diversify a bit. I would go with RIs (if you can still get them), Sea Cow, Fairground Mixer, and Benny's Spaceship. Benny's Spaceship especially at $50 is a fantastic deal. Or ToO. That's another set to grab before it's gone. Or wait for steamrollers to get to 70% clearance and haul them all in 1 Quote
Hayttees Posted February 25, 2015 Posted February 25, 2015 You are stretching it....General decline in LEGO? Remake of another set? I am not telling people to buy this set now at $700.00, but a case could be made for that. I have done that in the past and it has paid off handsomely. I am telling people that currently own the SSD to wait a year. This set has the potential to increase hundreds of dollars in the next year or so, what will you flip into that can do that? I definitely will be following Ed advice. I Have only one SSD and I have to treat it well. Sent from my GT-I9100 using Brickpicker mobile app Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.