10221 - UCS: Super Star Destroyer

[trekgate502]

So I'm not worshiping the DS like the rest of you guys are and I'm labeled as the bad guy?? For real? If you guys are following the actual DS post you will find others who are actually agreeing with me. I straight up said there will be people who disagree with me. I bring in my opinion which apparently is blasphemous, and because everyone has a DS and wants to hear only good things about it your going to call me a saboteur?

I do not agree with you, but I like you and want to hear your opinion. Thanks for contributing!

[Quacs]

Time to turn down the heat guys...

No need to call anyone out. In reality no one knows what the heck DS will do. For every sign indicating it's leaving there's a set that carried that same sign that didn't retire as predicted.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[Bold-Arrow]

We all love hotcakes

[holleman67]

Did we combine the ds and Ssd thread?

[toycrazedchris]

We all love hotcakes

 

Hotcakes and hatchbacks!

[Bold-Arrow]

You heard it here first: Cashmoney-0 is loaded up on DS, at least a few dozen of 'em, and he's trying to talk other investors out of buying the set until it's too late. That's ok with me. As a DS investor, I need to follow his example and do a better job arguing in my own self-interest, so I'll start now. 10188 will never retire, ever. How do we know? Because an anonymous guy told Brickshow. It's a done deal. Or rather, a deal that will never be done. Or something. Anyway, all everyone needs to remember is that DS will never retire. In fact, my own sources say that for Black Friday weekend this year, Lego will include a free 10188 with every Star Wars order of $99 or more. Bad news for DS investors. Dump 'em quick!

the Brickshow and its founders are respected entities in the Lego world .

[Cashmoney-0]

Time to turn down the heat guys...

No need to call anyone out. In reality no one knows what the heck DS will do. For every sign indicating it's leaving there's a set that carried that same sign that didn't retire as predicted.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

Is there a way to delete GhostDad's post about me. It's making me look like a bad guy. I was just making a prediction about the DS, which I thought people would want to hear; I didn't say I knew anything.

[GhostDad]

So I'm not worshiping the DS like the rest of you guys are and I'm labeled as the bad guy?? For real? If you guys are following the actual DS post you will find others who are actually agreeing with me. I straight up said there will be people who disagree with me. I bring in my opinion which apparently is blasphemous, and because everyone has a DS and wants to hear only good things about it your going to call me a saboteur? 

No offense was intended.  It was meant to be a joke.  I only mentioned you by name after you quoted (and rebutted) several of my posts re: DS EOL.  Brickshow's source could even be right.  I just give the verifiable evidence of retirement (only available at MSRP through LEGO Shop at Home and order limit there just dropped from 5 to 2) more weight than an anonymous source.

 

In general, when it comes to EOL debates, they should probably be resolved the emazers way.  In other words, when in doubt, buy the set.  I would love to come up with a more finely tuned investing strategy, but his has been demonstrated to work very well.  emazers basically advocates an approach to Lego investing (regarding exclusives) analogous to buying a stock market index fund.  For the overwhelming majority of investors, that is the best approach to take.

[Crustybeaver]

Did we combine the ds and Ssd thread?

No, Cashmoney is just spouting the same nonsense about retirements in multiple threads.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[fuzzy_bricks]

You heard it here first: Cashmoney-0 is loaded up on DS, at least a few dozen of 'em, and he's trying to talk other investors out of buying the set until it's too late.  That's ok with me.  As a DS investor, I need to follow his example and do a better job arguing in my own self-interest, so I'll start now.  10188 will never retire, ever.  How do we know?  Because an anonymous guy told Brickshow.  It's a done deal.  Or rather, a deal that will never be done.  Or something.  Anyway, all everyone needs to remember is that DS will never retire.  In fact, my own sources say that for Black Friday weekend this year, Lego will include a free 10188 with every Star Wars order of $99 or more.  Bad news for DS investors.  Dump 'em quick!

Dude, we get it, you don't think the Brickshow guys have any credibility.  You don't need to beat that horse every time someone brings up the DS.

[Quacs]

Is there a way to delete GhostDad's post about me. It's making me look like a bad guy. I was just making a prediction about the DS, which I thought people would want to hear; I didn't say I knew anything.

Cash, I wouldn't worry about it. I don't think anyone read GD's comment and changed their opinion about your posts.

Let's move back to debating the merits of investing in DS. To me, I'm not touching it. Too much risk when other great exclusives are out there waiting to be bought.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpicker

[Cashmoney-0]

No worries!

[GhostDad]

Cash, I wouldn't worry about it. I don't think anyone read GD's comment and changed their opinion about your posts.

Let's move back to debating the merits of investing in DS. To me, I'm not touching it. Too much risk when other great exclusives are out there waiting to be bought.

Sent from my iPhone using Brickpickerand

And then there's the risk of not investing in the most iconic SW lego set ever made.  10188 is mirroring 10211 and 10220 almost exactly in inventory performance, and both are more or less following a few months behind 10221 in showing the same patterns of availability and Target reselleresque pricing changes.  Most seem to think 10211 and 10220 are on their way out.  The same opinion seemed to hold for 10188 until Brickshow revealed that an anonymous source said it would be around for another year and a half.  I think that pretty much sums up the last dozen or so pages on the DS EOL thread.  I have never criticized Brickshow's "credibility" on any set other than 10188, but when weighing verifiable evidence (inventory and price changes) versus a single anonymous source, I choose the former.  I don't think Brickshow is lying; they're just reporting what they've heard.  I would feel the same about 10188 if Brickshow's source had reported directly to me instead.  In my opinion, verifiable evidence always beats one individual's prediction, including my own.  I've admitted multiple times that I was wrong about the SSD retiring in the spring.  I don't want to make the same mistake again.

[Ed Mack]

It's at the stage that if you were thinking about a buying a 10188, buy it. Maybe, if you are lucky, you will be able to wait till October's Double VIP to get a slightly better deal, but time is running out. It will probably only get harder from here out to locate this set This set can go in and out of stock for months and believe me, there are probably pallets of this set hiding in all sorts of places after 5 or 6 years, but are you willing to bet that it comes back into stock on a full time basis from multiple retailers? I wouldn't.

This is an iconic set that is worth $399, so maybe postpone the Tumbler purchase and pick one of these up if you don't have one.

Sent from my iPad using Brickpicker

[BrickLegacy]

It's at the stage that if you were thinking about a buying a 10188, buy it. Maybe, if you are lucky, you will be able to wait till October's Double VIP to get a slightly better deal, but time is running out. It will probably only get harder from here out to locate this set This set can go in and out of stock for months and believe me, there are probably pallets of this set hiding in all sorts of places after 5 or 6 years, but are you willing to bet that it comes back into stock on a full time basis from multiple retailers? I wouldn't.

This is an iconic set that is worth $399, so maybe postpone the Tumbler purchase and pick one of these up if you don't have one.

 

 

I remember when Ed posted a similar comment for the SSD back in April.  It convinced me to buy my first one, just in case I might want to build and display it later on.  Then I decided to buy another because the investment potential seemed appealing.  Then I bought a 3rd...

 

I have one DS right now and it's reserved for building.  I wonder if history will repeat itself.  I'm attracted to the idea that most investors that have been in the game for 2 years or less have avoided this set.  Those same investors are hoarding the other popular modulars.

 

I might pickup a 2nd or 3rd over the next 12 months just to be safe.  Besides, my son will eventually destroy ours (video coming soon) so it's probably a good hedge to have a few sealed duplicates on the edsal.

[darin]

I kinda missed the boat on SSD, so I decided to buy some on eBay. So far, I've bought 3, pretty good boxes, for about $675 a piece shipped. I'm thinking of buying more...what do you guys think? I know that buying at this price, it would have to hit $900 or so, just to break even. I'm planning on holding on to these for at least three years or longer, and hoping to sell for around $1500...far fetch?

[Bold-Arrow]

I kinda missed the boat on SSD, so I decided to buy some on eBay. So far, I've bought 3, pretty good boxes, for about $675 a piece shipped. I'm thinking of buying more...what do you guys think? I know that buying at this price, it would have to hit $900 or so, just to break even. I'm planning on holding on to these for at least three years or longer, and hoping to sell for around $1500...far fetch?

you will still make good money. I'd buy if I can afford to

[Ed Mack]

I remember when Ed posted a similar comment for the SSD back in April. It convinced me to buy my first one, just in case I might want to build and display it later on. Then I decided to buy another because the investment potential seemed appealing. Then I bought a 3rd...

I have one DS right now and it's reserved for building. I wonder if history will repeat itself. I'm attracted to the idea that most investors that have been in the game for 2 years or less have avoided this set. Those same investors are hoarding the other popular modulars.

I might pickup a 2nd or 3rd over the next 12 months just to be safe. Besides, my son will eventually destroy ours (video coming soon) so it's probably a good hedge to have a few sealed duplicates on the edsal.

Here's the thing. It will become more difficult to obtain multiples of this set. Is a person going to risk a ban in the US to buy two or more? Everybody saw how difficult it becomes to buy these sets when the Brickpicker Effect is in full swing. Sets are gone in minutes when there is a fear of imminent EOL. Buy the 10188 now, then sit back and watch the madness knowing you have your stash safe and secure in your house.

Sent from my iPad using Brickpicker

[JRandall]

I kinda missed the boat on SSD, so I decided to buy some on eBay. So far, I've bought 3, pretty good boxes, for about $675 a piece shipped. I'm thinking of buying more...what do you guys think? I know that buying at this price, it would have to hit $900 or so, just to break even. I'm planning on holding on to these for at least three years or longer, and hoping to sell for around $1500...far fetch?

 

I had a few before the retirement at $500 each after Emazer's repeated advice to not be stuck without 1, and after I saw the official retirement label I purchased 2 more immediately at $650. I mean we've been given the answer by Lego, the set is gone and it's not returning, with little to no chance anything this large, let alone a ship will ever be produced again. The ship is 4' long.. It took me a second to think about if I'd rather have 4-5 VW camper's/modulars vs another SSD until I realized that SSD's weren't stockpiled like the thousands of modulars stocked up, and the SSD is still being sold fast. I also bet most people buy that SSD to obviously build and display it, further limiting boxed sets. With such a limited supply of an already high priced set these realistically could reach $2000 in a few years as supplies dry up fast and models are built. SW fans with money to spend will want to have a display set of the SW iconic ships. Many people who can't afford to hold or want other good sets released in the next year will crack and sell at $900-1000 to free up space and keep buying and that's understandable given the circumstances, but those who are willing able to wait longer (which will be tough) will be selling at $2000 in 2-3 years I'd bet.  If you look at Ebay, literally dozens of these sets were sold in the last couple months at $600+, so going forward with zero availability bar an extremely rare and short lived showup at amazon or TRU the sky is the limit with a set this unique. 

[legone]

I wouldn't pay 70% over MSRP for any set one week after EOL (or 3 months after "practical" EOL, if you want to count from the day it was not widely available in stores).

I would invest in other sets that are likely near EOL and have somewhat similar ROI potential but can still be bought at MSRP or below, such as Grand Emporium, T1 Camper Van, etc.

But that's just me. I know I can be completely wrong. Good luck with your investment (and we are in the same boat).

[GhostDad]

I had a few before the retirement at $500 each after Emazer's repeated advice to not be stuck without 1, and after I saw the official retirement label I purchased 2 more immediately at $650. I mean we've been given the answer by Lego, the set is gone and it's not returning, with little to no chance anything this large, let alone a ship will ever be produced again. The ship is 4' long.. It took me a second to think about if I'd rather have 4-5 VW camper's/modulars vs another SSD until I realized that SSD's weren't stockpiled like the thousands of modulars stocked up, and the SSD is still being sold fast. I also bet most people buy that SSD to obviously build and display it, further limiting boxed sets. With such a limited supply of an already high priced set these realistically could reach $2000 in a few years as supplies dry up fast and models are built. SW fans with money to spend will want to have a display set of the SW iconic ships. Many people who can't afford to hold or want other good sets released in the next year will crack and sell at $900-1000 to free up space and keep buying and that's understandable given the circumstances, but those who are willing able to wait longer (which will be tough) will be selling at $2000 in 2-3 years I'd bet.  If you look at Ebay, literally dozens of these sets were sold in the last couple months at $600+, so going forward with zero availability bar an extremely rare and short lived showup at amazon or TRU the sky is the limit with a set this unique. 

The SSD has competition.  Notably, to reach some of these values ($1500?  $2000?), you're in direct competition with 10030, unless it starts rocketing higher at the same time.  Note that with 10030 it took about a decade post-EOL to reach the current ~$1400 (going by brickpicker's database).  Expecting 10221 to get there in a few years seems like a huge stretch, when pretty much all reviewers agree that 10030 is the superior display piece, and of course it is far more rare (Do I know this for sure?  No, but Lego sales generally were much, much lower 10 years ago).  I will be very, very surprised if a $675 SSD ends up being a better investment than, for example, a $400 DS.

 

The $500 SSD's at Target awhile back were a closer call.  I bought a bunch of DS and other presumably near-to-EOL sets instead, but it's certainly possible that 10221 was the better deal.  I weighed the certainty of owning some versus the possibility they were not yet actually "retired", or that I would be able to pick up some up at MSRP in one of the flash sales at TRU, Amazon, or Wal-Mart (didn't happen).  Yes, the Target SSD's were returnable, but I would feel like crap walking into a Target store with $3000 in lego sets (I was thinking of buying six SSD's), all to be returned because I "changed my mind".  I also thought (and still do, though I am less certain now than I was then) that the equivalent dollars and floor space invested in 10211, 10220, and 10188 would be a better deal.  Time will tell.

[Bold-Arrow]

 I will be very, very surprised if a $675 SSD ends up being a better investment than, for example, a $400 DS.

it will be very cool to come back in few years and revisit this post just to see how things transpired. it is a very tough call. I think the SSD @ 675 >  DS @ 400. time will tell

[inversion]

The SSD has competition.  Notably, to reach some of these values ($1500?  $2000?), you're in direct competition with 10030, unless it starts rocketing higher at the same time.  Note that with 10030 it took about a decade post-EOL to reach the current ~$1400 (going by brickpicker's database).  Expecting 10221 to get there in a few years seems like a huge stretch, when pretty much all reviewers agree that 10030 is the superior display piece, and of course it is far more rare.

Most people are biased towards the 10030 because it is rare. This tends to happen with vanity items. The ISD has the advantage that is more recognizable, however the SSD has a much better and sleeker design. The 10030 is just too chunky, its age really shows. As of now I wouldn't tell off the 10221. Nevertheless I am among those who say that SSD price won't go above 1000$ in the next 4 years. But this prognosis has nothing to do with the properties of the 10030, the only thing what matters is that the SSD was much more available and more people have the internetz.

 

Regarding the DS: I also believe that LEGO will come out with a renewed version after the EOL of 10188, maybe leaving 1-2 years of break between them, but they certainly won't do long without selling a large DS variant, I think after the last 6 years we can tell that LEGO has learned that as long it is selling SW there should be a DS available for purchase. Too iconic. As we see a MF every few years we will see new DS(s). The critical point is not the eventual release of a new Death Star, but its piece count. I believe the new sweet spot would be around 2500-3000 pieces and 14-15 minifigs. That would make it an imperfect substitute of the 10188 thus hindering its growth rate in value to a considerable extent. In that case, using the words of Ed, only (mostly) the 'anal completionists' would be the potential buyers who are not content with a slightly smaller variant, who, just be honest, are a minority, at least as long as we are speaking about the demand needed to sell the available stashed potential future supply of  the 10188.

[GhostDad]

Most people are biased towards the 10030 because it is rare. This tends to happen with vanity items. The ISD has the advantage that is more recognizable, however the SSD has a much better and sleeker design. The 10030 is just too chunky, its age really shows. As of now I wouldn't tell off the 10221. Nevertheless I am among those who say that SSD price won't go above 1000$ in the next 4 years. But this prognosis has nothing to do with the properties of the 10030, the only thing what matters is that the SSD was much more available and more people have the internetz.

 

Regarding the DS: I also believe that LEGO will come out with a renewed version after the EOL of 10188, maybe leaving 1-2 years of break between them, but they certainly won't do long without selling a large DS variant, I think after the last 6 years we can tell that LEGO has learned that as long it is selling SW there should be a DS available for purchase. Too iconic. As we see a MF every few years we will see new DS(s). The critical point is not the eventual release of a new Death Star, but its piece count. I believe the new sweet spot would be around 2500-3000 pieces and 14-15 minifigs. That would make it an imperfect substitute of the 10188 thus hindering its growth rate in value to a considerable extent. In that case, using the words of Ed, only (mostly) the 'anal completionists' would be the potential buyers who are not content with a slightly smaller variant, who, just be honest, are a minority, at least as long as we are speaking about the demand needed to sell the available stashed potential future supply of  the 10188.

It's an interesting question (10030 vs. 10221).  I don't own (and haven't built) either.  I have watched numerous youtube reviews of each, including several that combined the two sets (showed them off side by side).  I guess you can count me as a fan of the 10030's "chunkier" design.  I like how it has individual gun turrets that you can see (not just imagine that a little bump is a turbolaser battery), and of course those very prominent (and very vulnerable!) shield generators.  It also has height, not just length and width like the SSD.  And it gets vastly more screen time in the movies, since there are lots of SD's and only one (shown) SSD.  Reviewers who review both sets all prefer the SD.  They say it's shaky and falls apart if you fly it around your living room, but neither set is designed for that.  As a display piece, the opinion of people who have built both of them is generally that 10030 is superior.  The rarity is an added bonus, and not to be overlooked.

 

Anyway, I can't see $1000 SSD without $2000 SD.  The new movies could presumably drive both sets to those heights.  Or they could prominently feature Jar-Jar Bink's bratty salamander kids and totally bomb.  Somewhat more likely, Lego could release a new UCS SD and deal a blow to the values of both sets.  In order of "iconicness", I would say DS > MF > X-Wing > SD > SSD.  We've already had two UCS X-Wings.  Technically, we've had two UCS Sandcrawlers also (10144 was an exclusive and the set number suggests a UCS-category set).  A new UCS MF or SD seems like a reasonable prediction (as in, one could reasonably expect it to happen by Christmas 2015; certainly the new movies are likely to be full of SD's, if only because the Empire made so gosh darn many of them).

[jerryherb]

I txted him.  Said he has a buyer but I'm second if it falls through.

Sounds fun.

 

How did that pan out?