Ciglione Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Maybe some of you remember, maybe not. Some months ago I posted a reply on the topic "what I heared from a legostore employee today". In this reply I mentioned that an owner of one of the biggest lego shops in Europe (not an official lego shop) mentioned to me that lego will produce less exclusives in the future and concentrate more on smaller sets. Smaller sets are sold more (quantities). Now I am thinking he might be right. Maybe they will produce less exclusives but produce them longer. For example GE and SSD. So there will be always an artificial shortage. But no EOL soon. This also will rise the assumptions of a possible EOL and the panic/hoarding will remain. Does this theory make sense? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 How to get tc-4...?....i missed it. It will get you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bold-Arrow Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I think TLG could care less about tricking resellers and toying around with the secondary market. They operate just like any other company does, they are out to make money. These shortages and status updates are all normal day to day occurrences . 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Achilles Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I am not an expert on their numbers, but if I was a LEGO Exec, and I kept seeing these huge quantities of expensive sets selling in mass droves, it would encourage me to make more of them. Investors, like any customer, are a market to be exploited. "Hey we're suddenly selling an absolute ton of GE/SSD/DS/FB... Stores can't keep them in stock! Better make more!" If I were in charge I'd keep kicking them out as long as possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Maybe some of you remember, maybe not. Some months ago I posted a reply on the topic "what I heared from a legostore employee today". In this reply I mentioned that an owner of one of the biggest lego shops in Europe (not an official lego shop) mentioned to me that lego will produce less exclusives in the future and concentrate more on smaller sets. Smaller sets are sold more (quantities). Now I am thinking he might be right. Maybe they will produce less exclusives but produce them longer. For example GE and SSD. So there will be always an artificial shortage. But no EOL soon. This also will rise the assumptions of a possible EOL and the panic/hoarding will remain. Does this theory make sense? What makes sense for me is the fact that they have a bad website which says "hey, we are so bad about our stock and internet stuff with broken links everywhere that you sometimes have to call us by phone otherwise we don't have any clue of what we've got in stock". That's the reason of the "retiring soon" or "hard to find" mentions... About your last sentence, the "panic" is the one we create here. It's not on LEGO's will. Note: it doesn't mean the man who talked to you is wrong. Why not, it is possible that lego wants to make some more little sets than bigger (maybe it's more profitable for them, price cheaper but a higher PPP) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Follows Closely Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I am not an expert on their numbers, but if I was a LEGO Exec, and I kept seeing these huge quantities of expensive sets selling in mass droves, it would encourage me to make more of them. Investors, like any customer, are a market to be exploited. "Hey we're suddenly selling an absolute ton of GE/SSD/DS/FB... Stores can't keep them in stock! Better make more!" If I were in charge I'd keep kicking them out as long as possible. In order to make another batch of GE/SSD/DS you need to consume limited resources. The factory can only pump out so much at a given time. Also (and more importantly) you need to consider the pieces that are currently available in the factory is also limited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legodelorean Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 But shouldn't they be the "Brixies"? :-D Nice....... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ciglione Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I am not an expert on their numbers, but if I was a LEGO Exec, and I kept seeing these huge quantities of expensive sets selling in mass droves, it would encourage me to make more of them. Investors, like any customer, are a market to be exploited. "Hey we're suddenly selling an absolute ton of GE/SSD/DS/FB... Stores can't keep them in stock! Better make more!" If I were in charge I'd keep kicking them out as long as possible. You are partly right I think. But they will not kill us. They need us just as much as we need them now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I am not an expert on their numbers, but if I was a LEGO Exec, and I kept seeing these huge quantities of expensive sets selling in mass droves, it would encourage me to make more of them. Investors, like any customer, are a market to be exploited. "Hey we're suddenly selling an absolute ton of GE/SSD/DS/FB... Stores can't keep them in stock! Better make more!" If I were in charge I'd keep kicking them out as long as possible. I don't think so. Part of the success of lego is that they change their catalog frequently (about every two/three years). Would you be interested in legos (I mean, since you were a kid) if they only have overall 10 sets to sell ? It's a global startegy, and I'm sure they are tempted to produce some more GE (they certainly did with the SSD or the death star) but they do not because they need some fresh blood in their toy line to still have an appeal to buyers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I am not an expert on their numbers, but if I was a LEGO Exec, and I kept seeing these huge quantities of expensive sets selling in mass droves, it would encourage me to make more of them. Investors, like any customer, are a market to be exploited. "Hey we're suddenly selling an absolute ton of GE/SSD/DS/FB... Stores can't keep them in stock! Better make more!" If I were in charge I'd keep kicking them out as long as possible. With all due respect, how do we know these sets are selling in mass droves? We have no idea. Maybe the smaller sets outsell the large sets 100 to 1. We don't have any real clue as to which sets are making LEGO money or not. Just because a few sets get sold quickly on Amazon or Walmart we cannot assume that the sets are even popular. Maybe the SSD is a poor seller and they are happy to end this run... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I think TLG could care less about tricking resellers and toying around with the secondary market. They operate just like any other company does, they are out to make money. These shortages and status updates are all normal day to day occurrences . This is the truth. The SSD and GE will retire...when it makes financial sense for them to retire. We are looking at this whole situation through a microscope. As we watch the SSD and GE minute by minute, 20 other less desirable sets probably went EOL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
naf Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I am not an expert on their numbers, but if I was a LEGO Exec, and I kept seeing these huge quantities of expensive sets selling in mass droves, it would encourage me to make more of them. Investors, like any customer, are a market to be exploited. "Hey we're suddenly selling an absolute ton of GE/SSD/DS/FB... Stores can't keep them in stock! Better make more!" If I were in charge I'd keep kicking them out as long as possible. Investors would catch on to the fact that Lego isn't retiring anything and will stop buying. I don't think Lego is willing to dedicate production capacity to exploit the buying habits of investors, which is a relatively small number of buyers. Investors have absolutely no influence over Lego's production schedule. Most large companies have their production levels planned years in advance anyway. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnwray Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I think TLG could care less about tricking resellers and toying around with the secondary market. They operate just like any other company does, they are out to make money. These shortages and status updates are all normal day to day occurrences . This is the truth. The SSD and GE will retire...when it makes financial sense for them to retire. We are looking at this whole situation through a microscope. As we watch the SSD and GE minute by minute, 20 other less desirable sets probably went EOL. Investors would catch on to the fact that Lego isn't retiring anything and will stop buying. I don't think Lego is willing to dedicate production capacity to exploit the buying habits of investors, which is a relatively small number of buyers. Investors have absolutely no influence over Lego's production schedule. Most large companies have their production levels planned years in advance anyway. The rare triple-quote for truth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 People have to get away from the mind set that just because something sells they will keep it around forever. LEGO will not ignore product life cycles and operations management/product distribution and efficiency. It seems that the DS was an experiment by them to see how it would fair relative to new sets being issued. If they were really interested in a constant refresh they would have kept the set but update figs/parts etc. They did not do this it is the same as it was from the beginning, a test in my mind. i think the test was successful and thus we are now seeing longer life cycles without refreshes (exclusives not regular sets here). The DS may not be cannibalizing sales of newer product, or it may be. Retailers also have limited shelf space (warehouses as well) and may not be willing to carry new LEGO product without getting rid of the old(they need the consumers to come into their stores for one thing and buy other things as well). The best determination of EOL are LEGO stores and LEGO website. When it is gone and gone for an extended period of time (months3-6) you can expect it is the end. They will also do their best to get rid of every possible copy of a set before officially retiring them. Many sets popped back into stock for a brief period last year before the final death knell. Shipping inventory across the ocean is a very expensive and time consuming proposition. They will not do this for temporary shortages. As always in this thread this is my own opinion and based on nothing from LEGO themselves. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asharerin Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 There is certainly a chance that sudden resurrection of GE is a redirect from Europe (earlier batches of GEs were indeed coming from 'S' location, not from 'R'). But GE in Europe is at "ship date July 22". Which could still mean full blown run for GE as well (both in Europe and USA) More than likely. When I purchased the last of my FBs on 11/30/13 from LEGO Shop at Home USA the seals were all 24S0 indicating they were from Europe from a run in 2010. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alcarin Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 People have to get away from the mind set that just because something sells they will keep it around forever. LEGO will not ignore product life cycles and operations management/product distribution and efficiency. It seems that the DS was an experiment by them to see how it would fair relative to new sets being issued. If they were really interested in a constant refresh they would have kept the set but update figs/parts etc. They did not do this it is the same as it was from the beginning, a test in my mind. i think the test was successful and thus we are now seeing longer life cycles without refreshes (exclusives not regular sets here). The DS may not be cannibalizing sales of newer product, or it may be. Retailers also have limited shelf space (warehouses as well) and may not be willing to carry new LEGO product without getting rid of the old(they need the consumers to come into their stores for one thing and buy other things as well). The best determination of EOL are LEGO stores and LEGO website. When it is gone and gone for an extended period of time (months3-6) you can expect it is the end. They will also do their best to get rid of every possible copy of a set before officially retiring them. Many sets popped back into stock for a brief period last year before the final death knell. Shipping inventory across the ocean is a very expensive and time consuming proposition. They will not do this for temporary shortages. As always in this thread this is my own opinion and based on nothing from LEGO themselves. How do we have to get away from such minds? Did you ever saw Live Star type of ''shelf'' life back in 1990s? I did not..... Now its reality... a set out for YEARs worthy of atleast 2 above average set lifetimes.... I dont think LEGO plans years in advance.... or better said yes he does plan years in advance (1-2) but just look on Hobbit, they changed it midyear (or mid planning) due to jacksons circus..... Why do you think they could not do it again? Both your reason and the other side is valid, mainly because we have noone who woudl give 100% proof answers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I posted some months ago, yes I think this and SSD will retire, but Lego's available active sets list continue to expand and succeed. I do not see Target and other places massively expanding shelf space for them. That means there is less room for every series on the shelf because there is more sets and series. All that said it is not impossible when Lego's China plant comes online that they state due to overwhelming popularity they immediately change it from a regional plant to a global plant and then decide to keep the exclusives and high end sets alive much longer allowing them to be web order able only from Target, Walmart, etc. They still EOL most things in 24 months but not everything and thus you can get these online for a long time. I think that is the alternate theory. I just think it is a few years too early as the plant is not online yet and thus I think GE and SSD will be gone by the end of this year or early next. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waddamon Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 How do we have to get away from such minds? Did you ever saw Live Star type of ''shelf'' life back in 1990s? I did not..... Now its reality... a set out for YEARs worthy of atleast 2 above average set lifetimes.... I dont think LEGO plans years in advance.... or better said yes he does plan years in advance (1-2) but just look on Hobbit, they changed it midyear (or mid planning) due to jacksons circus..... Why do you think they could not do it again? Both your reason and the other side is valid, mainly because we have noone who woudl give 100% proof answers. Looks like "lost in translation", sorry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 People have to get away from the mind set that just because something sells they will keep it around forever. LEGO will not ignore product life cycles and operations management/product distribution and efficiency. It seems that the DS was an experiment by them to see how it would fair relative to new sets being issued. If they were really interested in a constant refresh they would have kept the set but update figs/parts etc. They did not do this it is the same as it was from the beginning, a test in my mind. i think the test was successful and thus we are now seeing longer life cycles without refreshes (exclusives not regular sets here). The DS may not be cannibalizing sales of newer product, or it may be. Retailers also have limited shelf space (warehouses as well) and may not be willing to carry new LEGO product without getting rid of the old(they need the consumers to come into their stores for one thing and buy other things as well). The best determination of EOL are LEGO stores and LEGO website. When it is gone and gone for an extended period of time (months3-6) you can expect it is the end. They will also do their best to get rid of every possible copy of a set before officially retiring them. Many sets popped back into stock for a brief period last year before the final death knell. Shipping inventory across the ocean is a very expensive and time consuming proposition. They will not do this for temporary shortages. As always in this thread this is my own opinion and based on nothing from LEGO themselves. I agree. Every product has a shelf life. LEGO likes to keep things new and fresh. Who would want to buy the same 300 sets for the next 10 years? Not many eventually. People also must realize that LEGO sets themselves are morphing and evolving. Boxes are getting smaller to save money(shipping, shelf space, cost of box). Instructions are of better quality. Interior bags are mixed up to prevent minifigure theft and so on. You might never see another SSD sized set. Maybe the new trend is to smaller and more compact sets. LEGO could stock 800 smaller sets in a LEGO store in comparison to 500 sets that are mixed in size. Just a couple of thoughts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No More Monkeys Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 More than likely. When I purchased the last of my FBs on 11/30/13 from LEGO Shop at Home USA the seals were all 24S0 indicating they were from Europe from a run in 2010. oh god! where in Europe did they find a set from 2010 when it was 2013? FB was selling in Europe that badly? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asharerin Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 You can tell straight away the difference in the cardboard thickness and texture from the Euro 2010 FB run and the USA 2012 sets I have. Obviously the 2010 sets were not mint either lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biniou Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 oh god! where in Europe did they find a set from 2010 when it was 2013? FB was selling in Europe that badly? I'm not sure but if they never went OoS in europe then the older sets were still in the back of shelves in the warehouse (or something like that). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No More Monkeys Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 I'm not sure but if they never went OoS in europe then the older sets were still in the back of shelves in the warehouse (or something like that). I somewhat doubt that Lego in Europe did not do any FB runs beyond 2010. Unless they had really bad warehouse management and they were doing new runs without almost fully depleting existing reserves. Maybe it is sort of "last crunch" thing as in "well, it is about to be declared retired, so let's search every corner". It is still shocking though that it is reasonable for them to ship transatlantic... from the other hand, since they do ship _some_ sets (like Rovers), they could probably piggy-back some other sets on that barge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sroster Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Well legoland Florida just got their revenge on me. Convinced my wife it was worth the time to drive here again for the tc4 deal. Go in the shop and see an ssd. Grab that and an ewok village and r2 and take to front. Got the same cashier as the other day and I ask her again to verify the tc4 for every 30 spent not item and she says yes. So I asked if they had more in back and they bring up another ssd and ewok and r2. At this point I say maybe I should get an annual pass for the discount and she said yeah you should its only 40 bucks to upgrade. So I went and did that while they were going to finish the shipping math and paperwork. When I got back some dude manager was there and was helping her ring it up. When she asked him so how many tc4s he went hmmm 4 (for one there were 6 total sets so that's nuts). I naturally said hmmm I was told it was per $30 spent not per item. And I just bought an annual pass! Of course he didn't budge so I spent zero instead of 1800. Also he gave me some sort of form letter about restricting amounts purchased and they will take away your annual pass etc etc. tldr there are 2 ssds at least at legoland fl. Tc4 deal ymmv. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gorbasho Posted July 7, 2014 Share Posted July 7, 2014 Personally I wouldn't have passed on 10% off SSDs just because I couldn't get 30 TC-4s with them Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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