znjndmawn Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Hoping that the discount would be available online soon. Need Smaug badly and would go well with my other dragons (dark red, black, green, red and horntail). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete411 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 I think the prospects for this set are dubious, even with the discount. I don't see this at 2x RRP for 2-3 years and even then, it won't be a brisk seller. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mathew Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 (edited) I think the prospects for this set are dubious, even with the discount. I don't see this at 2x RRP for 2-3 years and even then, it won't be a brisk seller. This set is more desirable than resellers think. Problem of course is the price. I could see it hitting $200 in six months to a year. Of course that's if you only find making $75 profit worth it in a short time. Personally, I only like quick flipping because I don't have the resources for long term investment. So this set is for me to build and then possibly sell used down the road for a small profit. Edited March 15, 2015 by Mathew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete411 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 (edited) ^The only thing this set has going for it is Smaug, which I believe is the only exclusive figure in the set. The playset is bleh. You have to put yourself in the buyer's shoes. Will they pay $200 for this if they can get a real exclusive for $150 or $200? Helm's Deep has been retired for about 6 months now and it hasn't reached $200 yet. Yeah this is more scarce, but Helm's Deep has much larger appeal. It has that wow factor and was truly an iconic scene. Edited March 15, 2015 by pete411 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Please everyone by all means avoid this set thank you LOL 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grynn Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 (edited) ^The only thing this set has going for it is Smaug, which I believe is the only exclusive figure in the set. The playset is bleh. You have to put yourself in the buyer's shoes. Will they pay $200 for this if they can get a real exclusive for $150 or $200? Helm's Deep has been retired for about 6 months now and it hasn't reached $200 yet. Yeah this is more scarce, but Helm's Deep has much larger appeal. It has that wow factor and was truly an iconic scene. Respectfully, I completely disagree. I don't see the big problem in the playset, but I haven't built it - only watched the video. More for the money? Obviously that would be nice... but this has THE daddy of all Dragons, plain and simple. It's what the book was all about, really, and certainly represents some favorite scenes from the movies. Was LotR about Helm's Deep? Nah, it was arguably the best battle scene in the trilogy, I will grant you. Wow factor? I don't see any in HD. I built it, thought it was a bit better than my low expectations, and took it apart a week later. Smaug, on the other hand... well, he inspires awe, plain and simple: http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/7149-10237-the-tower-of-orthanc/page-35#entry432828 I'm not trying to tear anyone's opinion down, but rather help folks understand that, from an investment standpoint, this set is looking like a BIG ONE at the moment. It has lots of magical ingredients. If you don't like it, no sweat. But if you need to find a place to put some money and see it grow, this is probably a far better bet than you may think. There could be less of these made than ToO. There are surely MANY less out there than UG, probably HD, or possibly ANY LotR/Hobbit set. And it is arguably the most iconic of all. Let's face it, we are paying huge for the dragon, a little more for the other minifigs, and the rest is gravy. Hobbit fans who get into Lego a year or more from now are going fork over whatever it takes to get this set. If you missed out on Town Hall, don't get fooled again... Edited March 15, 2015 by Grynn 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mathew Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 (edited) ...but Helm's Deep has much larger appeal. It has that wow factor and was truly an iconic scene. Helm's Deep is a good set, but not a great one. I built it. The best thing going for it is the intricate detail. You don't see this kind of detail in a Lego Castle set (aside from Medieval Market Village and Joust). It has a lot of bricks for MOC'ing. But that's really it. It's hard to display because of the elongated front steps though they are cool. And the throne room section sits too low compared to the front gate. It's a very compromised set. The Lonely Mountain is a Dragon's Lair. It too is compromised perhaps a bit much for the price point. I will say that I would not have bought it except for this recent sale. And the only real reason I bought Helm's Deep is because I got it for $90. With all that said, Smaug is the best part of The Hobbit films. Helm's Deep is not the best part of LotR. A closer comparison should probably be made to Mines of Moria. But the Smaug sequences are much more epic than that. So, I dunno. I'm sticking with it being popular after retirement due to it's rarity (assuming that it is retiring) and that it's flashy enough with Smaug. Not gangbusters but a safe bet. Edited March 15, 2015 by Mathew 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cross Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Bottom line: this is the only shot at Lego Smaug. He is done in extraordinary detail. He is a true masterpiece. And if he's truly exiting to stage left THIS quickly... this is a hot investment set. There is a modest chance future LOTR films will be released if Tolkien's estate allows production of stories from his other works. None of these address Smaug, making the likelihood of a re-boot of him virtually non-existent (though never say never...). As a fan, I love this set (see photo in my profile, which is referenced above as well). As an INVESTOR- I am very bullish on this set as well. Smaug is arguably the most significant villain from the fantasy genre, ever. Tolkien's work is the Bible of fantasy writing; there will always be a hungry audience for what he produced. And if you haven't read the books... treat yourself to them. The movies are wonderful- the books even more so. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricksnstocks Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Stopped by Lego store today because I didn't have time to go durning the weekend. I had low expectations but were surprised to found 4 of these at $104 and 2 ToO. I picked up 2 because that store always asked who you are buying for etc., so I don't want to push it. To be honest, I think we might have another shot for lower price if TRU blow them out at EOL. That said, it helps to at least get some now. Now I can build my ToO with Smaug! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legopocalypse Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 ^The only thing this set has going for it is Smaug, which I believe is the only exclusive figure in the set. The playset is bleh. You have to put yourself in the buyer's shoes. Will they pay $200 for this if they can get a real exclusive for $150 or $200? Helm's Deep has been retired for about 6 months now and it hasn't reached $200 yet. Yeah this is more scarce, but Helm's Deep has much larger appeal. It has that wow factor and was truly an iconic scene. HD has been retired for a lot longer than 6 months UNITED STATES 16 May 12 - 05 Nov 13 $129.99 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wazzapova Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I just bought my 3rd set at $103.99 USD!!! This was a great deal! Smaug is the best character in the Jackson trilogy, you all know it, but to have him as the largest maxifig in the Lego universe is awesome! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pete411 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Eh, you guys are delusional. There are so many other sets you can be spending your money on. How long do you think it will take for this set to hit RRP, let alone double? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hxckid88 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Eh, you guys are delusional. There are so many other sets you can be spending your money on. How long do you think it will take for this set to hit RRP, let alone double? ... Says the guy who has been here for 3 weeks..... Thanks, but with double Vip, no tax, and 20% discount I csnt think of anything I'd rather be buying now. Well maybe falling waters. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legodog Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 (edited) Eh, you guys are delusional. There are so many other sets you can be spending your money on. How long do you think it will take for this set to hit RRP, let alone double? I have 21 at the moment all purchased for $83+ tax. I am selling some of them to other brickpicker members but I would happily pick up any more that I find. Calling others delusional who have clearly been doing this a lot longer than you is a little harsh. 2000th post completed Edited March 17, 2015 by Legodog 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 ... Says the guy who has been here for 3 weeks..... Thanks, but with double Vip, no tax, and 20% discount I csnt think of anything I'd rather be buying now. Well maybe falling waters. It is a great set to buy. Got some and moving on to Live Star... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fossilrock Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Yep, if I had a top 5 list of sets to be stocking up on before they are gone, this is my first choice for this month. Because next month they will more than likely be scarce and not at the price. I will gladly admit, I was wrong about these sets not seeing any discount. Thankfully that has occurred, but it won't last long. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricketycricket Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Eh, you guys are delusional. There are so many other sets you can be spending your money on. How long do you think it will take for this set to hit RRP, let alone double? I kinda have to agree with this. Smaug is great but the fact that it's being discounted just shows that many people are probably unwilling to shell out retail price to get him which sorta puts a cap on this as an investment. And that's before getting into the mediocrity of LoTR/Hobbit investments thus far. I don't wanna declare anyone right or wrong in this thread, because I could see this set going either way...but there are some VERY optimistic posts in here. I still bought one but I'm prepared to eat the cost and open the set if it doesn't pan out. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 One Lego store I was at had these in the back corner by the exit door with the other Hobbit stuff. I do not think that is a coincidence... LOL Edit If there is only two LOTR and Hobbit sets I could own it would be ToO and this. The dragon is amazing. I do not think many appreciate the fact that Lego sees the third film is over and they have other items of higher priority and they want this series gone ASAP. If the line goes in the next few months and Smaug is gone forever this set will do fine. Maybe not spectacular but I think a solid investment. The more of you that pass the better for those who do not... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grynn Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Eh, you guys are delusional. There are so many other sets you can be spending your money on. How long do you think it will take for this set to hit RRP, let alone double? Strong language, likely to get you in trouble... especially as a newer member who looks to order modulars 5 at a time from LEGO Shop at Home, had no idea B&****** stocked Lego, believes the Winter Village theme is played out, and is grabbing multiple Battle of the Five Armies at an average discount... A little humility goes a long way around here. Please take it as friendly advice. And, I will answer your question. I think once it is SOLD OUT, it will immediately surpass $150 unless TRU magically appears with endless pallets of them. It will easily double MSRP within 2-3 years of effective EOL, AND be a steady gainer for years afterward (unlike many sets in themes that never die). I see $500 potential in this set in due time, no problem. Of course I could be wrong but my money is going where my mouth is... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
comicblast Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I kinda have to agree with this. Smaug is great but the fact that it's being discounted just shows that many people are probably unwilling to shell out retail price to get him which sorta puts a cap on this as an investment. And that's before getting into the mediocrity of LoTR/Hobbit investments thus far. I don't wanna declare anyone right or wrong in this thread, because I could see this set going either way...but there are some VERY optimistic posts in here. I still bought one but I'm prepared to eat the cost and open the set if it doesn't pan out. So the mere fact that a set has been discounted deems it a poor investment? Huh. Do you only invest in exclusives that were produced after LEGO's exclusive discounting ban, and will cease to as a result of the ban being expired? If not, I think we can at least agree that a set being discounted doesn't always mean that people aren't going to pay over retail for sets. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 So the mere fact that a set has been discounted deems it a poor investment? Huh. Do you only invest in exclusives that were produced after LEGO's exclusive discounting ban, and will cease to as a result of the ban being expired? If not, I think we can at least agree that a set being discounted doesn't always mean that people aren't going to pay over retail for sets. Great post on discounted or not and I am reading into it length of availability. Remember the Arctic Supply Plane? No one wanted it at all Lego retired it in 6 months and I bought a bunch on clearance at $40 each. Bottom buy it now is now $113.90 for a US seller on eBay. I raised mine to $200 and am going to wait it out a while before if I lower. It has only been 3 months since it went away... By the way since people are talking about it where is the best spot online or in store to try and get a few Battle of Five Armies? Did Meijer have it 25% off too? I know Lego brick and mortar does not. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grynn Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 I kinda have to agree with this. Smaug is great but the fact that it's being discounted just shows that many people are probably unwilling to shell out retail price to get him which sorta puts a cap on this as an investment. And that's before getting into the mediocrity of LoTR/Hobbit investments thus far. I don't wanna declare anyone right or wrong in this thread, because I could see this set going either way...but there are some VERY optimistic posts in here. I still bought one but I'm prepared to eat the cost and open the set if it doesn't pan out. Fair enough... and this comparison is certainly not parallel, but to your point: http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=4184-1 was more widely available AND obtained by many people at 50% off, was it not? There is a much deeper fan base for LotR/Hobbit than PotC, I dare say. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meowsmeowsmeows Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Lego in-store availability of this set has nothing to do with online availability or retirement. The sale was on in-store sets and nothing online. So, it's clear Lego wants to clear out space of Hobbit sets in their physical stores and I think most other stores that have carried this set in a brick and mortor store also want to do so. One would expect a similar online sale at Lego and perhaps other stores before it actually is retired. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricketycricket Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 So the mere fact that a set has been discounted deems it a poor investment? Huh. Do you only invest in exclusives that were produced after LEGO's exclusive discounting ban, and will cease to as a result of the ban being expired? If not, I think we can at least agree that a set being discounted doesn't always mean that people aren't going to pay over retail for sets. That is a massive oversimplification of what I said. My point is that people are clearly already balking at paying $130 USD for a Smaug fig and that should definitely give investors something to consider when making a decision on this one. Of course people will pay over retail for this. But how much over retail? And how long will it take to get there? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bricketycricket Posted March 17, 2015 Share Posted March 17, 2015 Fair enough... and this comparison is certainly not parallel, but to your point: http://www.brickpicker.com/bpms/set.cfm?set=4184-1 was more widely available AND obtained by many people at 50% off, was it not? There is a much deeper fan base for LotR/Hobbit than PotC, I dare say. It's certainly possible for this to be the next Black Pearl, but it also might not be -- it's a gamble, that's all I'm saying. And personally, I'd be more comfortable betting on a large boat than a single maxifig to carry my investment but that's just me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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