79018 - The Lonely Mountain

[Jules_K]

12 minutes ago, Zelgazra said:

I'm just thinking about it's uniqueness. Lego will almost never make anything like this again, and I have no trouble with the idea of holding for years. Lonely Mountain is to the Hobbit theme as Tower of Orthanc is to the LotR theme. Yes, I'd 'up against' many many people that got the set below RRP, and I'd have to make up ground due to purchasing over, but I'd also imagine those of you who got in cheap are probably going to get out before I do as the target number will come to pass for you sooner than it would for me. It's just the question of where that plateau will end up, and is the difference still worth it. For me, $230 is almost exactly like purchasing any of the current Modulars at RRP, so I guess an easier question to pose might be: Is this set likely to profit as well or better than any of the current modulars? 

If we all thought it would be a better investment than any modular then there wouldn't be any LM left available at $230. Your guess is as good as anyone here. I think it will plateau similarly to Helms Deep but I'm only guessing. 

Edited December 15, 2015 by Jules_K

[Sprocket77]

26 minutes ago, Zelgazra said:

^^ Exactly. Plus shipping, $230 shipped is a pretty fair deal for current aftermarket values. It's still way more than it was a few months ago. Will it make up that ground and then some faster than say the Tumbler or Pet Shop / Palace Cinema will? (none officially sold out yet, but highly speculated on the boards as Retiring, probably best pricepoint comparison)

As another example, I purchased a Town Hall as one of my first items cause I wanted one. Paid $540 CDN for New in Box at the time. I opened it and built it. It's now worth about $525 used, had I kept it boxed I could've made a couple hundred bucks in 6 months. I have a feeling this set could do something similar. It's like the classic lego collector's question of "should I have purchased that 10179 when it was at $2k?" 

 

Firstly you compared this set to the Tower of Orthanc and now you're comparing it to the UCS Falcon, really. This is a 800 odd piece set with only one redeeming feature, Smaug. I do think this is a good set to hold, but there have got to be better options for you then this. What about all the retiring sets, did you get the At-At or ISD, they're close to double what I paid for them in a month.

 

[BearCrash]

But once everyone who owns a ToO realizes the tower looks way cooler when you put Smaug on it, this set will skyrocket.
Or maybe not.

[Ciglione]

27 minutes ago, BearCrash said:

But once everyone who owns a ToO realizes the tower looks way cooler when you put Smaug on it, this set will skyrocket.
Or maybe not.

Once everyone who owns a Smaug realizes the dragon looks way cooler when you put Orthanc underneath it, that set will skyrocket.

Or maybe not.

[JeffProbst]

The Hobbit trilogy was pretty weak. I know that the book is held in pretty high regard, but I I feel like the movies have already been forgotten. The LOTR trilogy was excellent but it is perhaps no longer relevant in a world where Star Wars, Marvel and DC dominate the landscape.  

Not sure what this means for this set and others but I wouldn't be going out of my way to get some. 

[fossilrock]

I disagree.  LOTR and the Hobbit are embedded in popular culture and will be for decades.  And I personally, really liked the hobbit trilogy.  Was it perfect? No..  but it was still very well done and better than 90% of what Hollywood produces, including any of that superhero garbage.

I personally think all these sets will do well, although i'm a little biased because I hold more LM's than any other set.

[Achilles]

There is no "Magic Set" - And the days of sets going to 4-5x MSRP, personally, I think - are more or less gone (minus the very occasional outlier before I get responses with the couple of sets that have done it). I think the POTC/Harry Potter wave was the end of that era in Brickvesting. There are lots of options, lots more folks in the game - I think 3x MSRP is going to be more or less "peak". I think even "hot" sets that aren't widely held like Town Hall and Super Star Destroyer will plateau around this mark.

If your goal is to maximize your investing dollar, there's no reason to spend $150 on a set that retailed for $130. I imagine the ceiling for this set being $300, and probably $250-$270 may be more realistic which seems to be where a lot of sets in the last 3-4 years at this price point settle. You'd still make money of course, but percentage wise - not nearly as much.

If your goal is to have a couple of a unique/rare set, well then go nuts. But if your goal is to get the most bang for your buck, as others have mentioned - Look for ISDs/At-Ats/Cantinas and even Imperial Hotels at small discounts or near MSRP as opposed to paying OVER MSRP for a set who probably that has already reached halfway to its max. Heck, I'd rather grab another Death Star at MSRP than 2 LM's at above.

LM is obviously doing fine, but I think you wanted to be in at around $100-$110 max. As others have pointed out, maybe people especially in Europe snagged these at 50% off. 

[RTRC]

Regardless of people's opinions of the hobbit/LOTR, smaug is what makes this set valuable. Dragons will always be popular among the kids and adults alike. This is the most recent/biggest dragon released ever in Lego. The chances of another one being released anytime soon is very very slim. 

[fossilrock]

And there are also a lot more people into lego than ever before.  I'd say for every reseller there's 500 new consumers coming into play.

And, within a month after it started to disappear here in the states, it's already shot up to where Helm's Deep currently sits.  I'll take that as a big sign, that buying these was a good judgement call.  I honestly see this peaking around 350 in 2 to 3 years to be honest.  First, unlike helms deep, the amount of people holding this is much much less.  It's also the best hobbit set, and contains all the major characters from the trilogy, minus Thorin.

All the hobbit sets, minus a couple have seen good spikes over the last few months.  Even Dol Guldur Battle is starting to show healthy signs. 

In the LOTR realm, it looks like those that invested in Black Gates are going to be really sitting pretty.  It maybe the best investment of the second wave of LOTR sets.

[Bold-Arrow]

5 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

And there are also a lot more people into lego than ever before.  I'd say for every reseller there's 500 new consumers coming into play.

And, within a month after it started to disappear here in the states, it's already shot up to where Helm's Deep currently sits.  I'll take that as a big sign, that buying these was a good judgement call.  I honestly see this peaking around 350 in 2 to 3 years to be honest.  First, unlike helms deep, the amount of people holding this is much much less.  It's also the best hobbit set, and contains all the major characters from the trilogy, minus Thorin.

All the hobbit sets, minus a couple have seen good spikes over the last few months.  Even Dol Guldur Battle is starting to show healthy signs. 

In the LOTR realm, it looks like those that invested in Black Gates are going to be really sitting pretty.  It maybe the best investment of the second wave of LOTR sets.

Soon: For every 1 consumer there will be 500 resellers 

[fossilrock]

5 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Soon: For every 1 consumer there will be 500 resellers 

Don't buy that at all.  What's happening with SW right now is proof of that.

[zskid00]

The Castle Dragon Mountain set was readily available for $35 last year and is doing very well this holiday season.  I expect big things from Smaug, especially in the absence of any new Castle/Kingdoms sets that could utilize the giant dragon mold.  I am bullish on LOTR/Hobbit long-term at the right buy in price but it could be my love of the property blinding my investment decision.

[Bold-Arrow]

5 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Don't buy that at all.  What's happening with SW right now is proof of that.

True.  on topic , LM is a winner no matter how you look at it . 

[Darth_Raichu]

9 minutes ago, Bold-Arrow said:

Soon: For every 1 consumer there will be 500 resellers 

Can I just merge all threads to the bubble thread and be done with it ?

 

[botchy123]

44 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

 I honestly see this peaking around 350 in 2 to 3 years to be honest.  

Quite possible. I think this has turned into another set i probably will find hard to part with.

[Calli]

I ran acroos two 79018 LM sets at TRU yesterday and couldn't say no. I bought them at their regular retail price but I am confident that the bad ass Smaug figure will pay off. I saw some listed on eBay for 80$.

[JRandall]

People have way too short an investment horizon.  You should be planning to hold these sets for 2-3 years.  This set is an easy $300 in another 2 years, but most people simply can't tie up there money that long. This set potentially could reach $400-500 because they won't be making it ever again and as people go back and watch the movies and read the books the kids who are now in their early 20's will have alot of money to build their collections in another 5 years. Emazers said it right, your time-table needs to be 3-5 years.  Case in point, I had a castle set that I bought for $180 and held for a year, had been retired for 4 years already and many bought it at around $100 or so.  Well once the remaining few cleared off Amazon I was able to sell it for $400 within a year of holding it. Many people just aren't willing to wait long enough for the payoff. Who would have thought that stupid 4x4 general crawler would have hit near the price points of the limited edition version, and it was purchasable in the $100 range, and now it's going for $240.. We know what the better investment was, yet many bypassed it thinking there was an excess supply.

[Val-E]

Depends, in Europe this set is a long term hold by default because so many were bought by a handful of UK resellers flipping at RRP or thereabouts. Until their vast stock is reduced it won´t be allowed to appreciate. That´s the problem with this type of set - there is not enough demand to clear them out in the way, say a Millennium Falcon, would.

[Codes]

I saw one at my local TRU tonight (regular retail price).  Box was rather damaged, though, and I passed.  But, I'm thinking I might go back and get it anyway.

[freakchem]

2 hours ago, Codes said:

I saw one at my local TRU tonight (regular retail price).  Box was rather damaged, though, and I passed.  But, I'm thinking I might go back and get it anyway.

You won't regret picking it up...

[BrickLegacy]

9 hours ago, Codes said:

I saw one at my local TRU tonight (regular retail price).  Box was rather damaged, though, and I passed.  But, I'm thinking I might go back and get it anyway.

If the box appears to be open I would ask the store clerk or manager to open it and verify the contents.  If Smaug is missing you lose half the value of the set ($60-70 USD).  I did this with a suspicious Jabbas Palace at Walmart a few years ago.  It was worth the piece of mind, and sometimes they will even offer a discount if you ask politely.

[Codes]

1 hour ago, BrickLegacy said:

If the box appears to be open I would ask the store clerk or manager to open it and verify the contents.  If Smaug is missing you lose half the value of the set ($60-70 USD).  I did this with a suspicious Jabbas Palace at Walmart a few years ago.  It was worth the piece of mind, and sometimes they will even offer a discount if you ask politely.

Thanks for the advice, BrickLegacy.  I don't think the box was tampered with; the back panel of the box has been compressed.  I'm not sure if it was a return, or they found it shoved behind something else in a store room.  I was thinking about asking for a small discount, but wasn't sure if that was a recommended tactic or not.  Anyway, if I manage to snag it, I will try to upload custom photos to my Brickfolio.

Thanks again for the advice.

[meiamfan]

When I asked about a discount on a damaged set a few weeks ago, the store clerk told me store policy was a free polybag of the set retailed for more than $30. However, you couldn't pick just any polybag. He gave me the choice between a Ninjago and Chima polybag from what I could remember. I didn't press on choosing another one (eg Star Wars), though worth trying

[Nobutada]

just saw on lego.com this set is officially retired.. not sure if this is old new or not

[Val-E]

http://www.ebay.es/itm/LEGO-NEW-SEALED-79018-THE-HOBBIT-SMAUG-THE-LONELY-MOUNTAIN-/222135968742?hash=item33b855e3e6:g:gogAAOSwR5dXTXsl

124 euros, which is less than RRP 1 year after retirement. Looks like Smaug is going to have a long wait on his hands to reach acceptable levels.

BIN all seem to go for around 155 euros and when no one lists below 200 there are no sales.