79018 - The Lonely Mountain

[Val-E]

I trust in a better quality of reseller there.

[BearCrash]

2 hours ago, TigerG said:

Don't hold your breath - Dreamland Belgium had lots of LM in store during the 15% off sale that were already reduced so they could be bought around 80 Euros - there is still a lot of stock out there that was bought deeply discounted so it might still be some time until the prices go up.

When was that? Because the days before they were all gone for good in Dreamland (late June, early July), there was no -15% promo. They were €97.50 at the time, I believe

[Locutus001]

I don't even know what you are arguing about.

The cheapest one I can find (doing a quick search on ebay.de) is buy now for 164,90€ (or something).

The next cheapest is 178€, then 180€

So regardless of this set having been discounted or not it seems to appreciate well enough.

Next year it might hit 200€ and that's where I'm selling. If it stays on 180€ though it'd still be a good deal. This set is one of the better investment decissions I've made.

(Yes I know sold: more around 140-160€ but the tendency is towards 180€ and I'm sure it'll settle there soon enough)

Edited November 13, 2015 by Locutus001

[TigerG]

1 hour ago, BearCrash said:

When was that? Because the days before they were all gone for good in Dreamland (late June, early July), there was no -15% promo. They were €97.50 at the time, I believe

A week ago during the 15 % sale and I found 6 LM in 3 different stores all at 95 before the discount.

And Locutus: I was already at over 200 Euro in September before the Smiths sale in the UK and Ireland - after that prices took a nosedive due to the mass of cheap offers. Mind you I'm not blaming people: 150 - ebay fees etc still made them a nice profit if they bought at 50 to 70 Euros.

[BearCrash]

5 minutes ago, TigerG said:

A week ago during the 15 % sale and I found 6 LM in 3 different stores all at 95 before the discount.

And Locutus: I was already at over 200 Euro in September before the Smiths sale in the UK and Ireland - after that prices took a nosedive due to the mass of cheap offers. Mind you I'm not blaming people: 150 - ebay fees etc still made them a nice profit if they bought at 50 to 70 Euros.

Consider yourself lucky then; I haven't seen a single LM in a physical Dreamland store since July (4 different stores).

[Guest]

Wish I had more than 2 of these, but I could never find a decent discount except the 2 I bought at 20% off from Lego store. 20% is my cutoff.

[TigerG]

5 minutes ago, BearCrash said:

Consider yourself lucky then; I haven't seen a single LM in a physical Dreamland store since July (4 different stores).

I know that they weren't in the same stores the weekend before  so I guess they found some in the warehouse and distributed them among the stores during the sales.

[fossilrock]

This has gone out of stock from all the major retail outlets over the last few days and prices have also started rising on it in the US, while even reseller stock has started to decrease.  I figured, a while back this would last until around this time period, and it looks like that is correct.  I personally, have bolstered my hopes for this one being a great investment winner, for many good reasons.  It's not even going to be like helms deep, it's going to be much much better!

 

Edited November 26, 2015 by fossilrock

[botchy123]

17 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

This has gone out of stock from all the major retail outlets over the last few days and prices have also started rising on it in the US, while even reseller stock has started to decrease.  I figured, a while back this would last until around this time period, and it looks like that is correct.  I personally, have bolstered my hopes for this one being a great investment winner, for many good reasons.  It's not even going to be like helms deep, it's going to be much much better!

 

Yes, you are probably right.

[pickleboy]

Not too shabby... already $185 on Amazon.

And only 24 sellers so far

Edited November 28, 2015 by pickleboy

[dcdfan]

22 minutes ago, pickleboy said:

Not too shabby... already $185 on Amazon.

And only 24 sellers so far

Double or nothing for me...

[conceptmachine]

I loaded up on this set.  My last couple orders from amazon came in damaged a bit, as long as Smaug is on the package it will sell extremely well.  (Not selling though will trade)

Edited November 28, 2015 by conceptmachine

[fossilrock]

Not too shabby... already $185 on Amazon.

Yep, this one has been my focus over the last month.  This and the sea cow.  I've managed to acquire 10 more after it went OOS at lego.com.  Managed to buy 2 at amazon before they went, then another few at walmart before they were tossed, and i've acquired 6 from TRU both online, and at in stores.  This set was the best of the sets to get over the last month, and is looking more and more golden, IMO.  I'm sitting on a nice stack.  I'm in this one for the long long term..

[pickleboy]

1 hour ago, fossilrock said:

Yep, this one has been my focus over the last month.  This and the sea cow.  I've managed to acquire 10 more after it went OOS at lego.com.  Managed to buy 2 at amazon before they went, then another few at walmart before they were tossed, and i've acquired 6 from TRU both online, and at in stores.  This set was the best of the sets to get over the last month, and is looking more and more golden, IMO.  I'm sitting on a nice stack.  I'm in this one for the long long term..

We had the same exact plan.  I did hit a lil bump in the raod when I got banned by Lego for buying other sets but other than that...plan was solid


Besides the dragon, what is the biggest difference between this set and Helm's Deep...about 150 resellers when they both sold out 

Edited November 28, 2015 by pickleboy

[Quacs]

18 hours ago, pickleboy said:

We had the same exact plan.  I did hit a lil bump in the raod when I got banned by Lego for buying other sets but other than that...plan was solid


Besides the dragon, what is the biggest difference between this set and Helm's Deep...about 150 resellers when they both sold out 

And about a year of shelf life...

[Val-E]

I´m probably speaking to soon but the qfll´s in Europe have been washed out and starting price is now touching 200 euros.

[Zelgazra]

Ok, this might be better suited for the Deal or No Deal thread, but I'm going to post it here anyway...

I'd been eyeing this set for months, since I first got into the game last spring, but never took the opportunity to prioritize it, thinking 'ah, it'll be around for another 12 months at least'. And now here we are 6 months later, and they're sold out everywhere and our lovely reseller market is taking over.

I've heard talk of folks buying in right after EoL occurs on certain big hitter sets and still profiting nicely a few years later, and ultimately enhancing their CAGR through buying late. In BC, RRP + 12% tax for this set would've equated to $168 (and most retailers will provide free shipping at that pricepoint). I've reached out to an ebay seller who happens to be a Brickpicker, and they've negotiated down to $230 Shipped. I'm trying to work the angle of x2 for $425 shipped as I don't want to be out in the cold without any of this set. Am I a complete fool? Should I cut my losses and just spectate from the sidelines, putting the money into 2 Tumblers instead? Or is Smaug going to carry this set to the clouds in a couple years? Lots of people suggest investing in sets you personally like. I like this set a lot, but was forced with choice and just spent my money buying PSs and other 'retiring soon' speculated sets instead. After recent Christmas sales I'll have a few dollars to reinvest.

 

Would love to hear your input folks, especially considering it sounds like Europe is hitting the $300 CDN price point...

[Val-E]

I´d have a look at UK ebay listings that ship abroad, there are still some items there that are close to RRP.

[Sprocket77]

20 minutes ago, Zelgazra said:

Ok, this might be better suited for the Deal or No Deal thread, but I'm going to post it here anyway...

I'd been eyeing this set for months, since I first got into the game last spring, but never took the opportunity to prioritize it, thinking 'ah, it'll be around for another 12 months at least'. And now here we are 6 months later, and they're sold out everywhere and our lovely reseller market is taking over.

I've heard talk of folks buying in right after EoL occurs on certain big hitter sets and still profiting nicely a few years later, and ultimately enhancing their CAGR through buying late. In BC, RRP + 12% tax for this set would've equated to $168 (and most retailers will provide free shipping at that pricepoint). I've reached out to an ebay seller who happens to be a Brickpicker, and they've negotiated down to $230 Shipped. I'm trying to work the angle of x2 for $425 shipped as I don't want to be out in the cold without any of this set. Am I a complete fool? Should I cut my losses and just spectate from the sidelines, putting the money into 2 Tumblers instead? Or is Smaug going to carry this set to the clouds in a couple years? Lots of people suggest investing in sets you personally like. I like this set a lot, but was forced with choice and just spent my money buying PSs and other 'retiring soon' speculated sets instead. After recent Christmas sales I'll have a few dollars to reinvest.

 

Would love to hear your input folks, especially considering it sounds like Europe is hitting the $300 CDN price point...

I got this set for €50 and I'm sure others did too, so that's what you're competing against. Me personally I'd skip it and move on to the next set you've been eyeing up.

[Zelgazra]

8 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

I´d have a look at UK ebay listings that ship abroad, there are still some items there that are close to RRP.

Sadly the British Pound just annihilates the Canadian Dollar. It's nearly 2x. Just did a quick look sorting by Price + Shipping Lowest First, and the cheapest I can see for a complete damaged box set is going to work out to just under $300 CDN. Starts to make my offer look like a good deal....

[Jules_K]

I think the ship has sailed if you're buying in at this point in time, your money would be better spent elsewhere. It's December, many sets are about to imminently retire, so I'd be looking there.

[Zelgazra]

5 minutes ago, Sprocket77 said:

I got this set for €50 and I'm sure others did too, so that's what you're competing against. Me personally I'd skip it and move on to the next set you've been eyeing up.

I'm just thinking about it's uniqueness. Lego will almost never make anything like this again, and I have no trouble with the idea of holding for years. Lonely Mountain is to the Hobbit theme as Tower of Orthanc is to the LotR theme. Yes, I'd 'up against' many many people that got the set below RRP, and I'd have to make up ground due to purchasing over, but I'd also imagine those of you who got in cheap are probably going to get out before I do as the target number will come to pass for you sooner than it would for me. It's just the question of where that plateau will end up, and is the difference still worth it. For me, $230 is almost exactly like purchasing any of the current Modulars at RRP, so I guess an easier question to pose might be: Is this set likely to profit as well or better than any of the current modulars? 

[TheGallows]

Theres a couple on BL in the US @ $150, cheapest in canada is $220

[BearCrash]

Just follow your gut feeling. Many people buy modulars above MSRP and still make a decent profit. But now that every housewife has a dozen of modulars hidden in her kitchen, you might be better off with Smaug than any of the current modulars.

[Zelgazra]

11 minutes ago, TheGallows said:

Theres a couple on BL in the US @ $150, cheapest in canada is $220

^^ Exactly. Plus shipping, $230 shipped is a pretty fair deal for current aftermarket values. It's still way more than it was a few months ago. Will it make up that ground and then some faster than say the Tumbler or Pet Shop / Palace Cinema will? (none officially sold out yet, but highly speculated on the boards as Retiring, probably best pricepoint comparison)

As another example, I purchased a Town Hall as one of my first items cause I wanted one. Paid $540 CDN for New in Box at the time. I opened it and built it. It's now worth about $525 used, had I kept it boxed I could've made a couple hundred bucks in 6 months. I have a feeling this set could do something similar. It's like the classic lego collector's question of "should I have purchased that 10179 when it was at $2k?"