79018 - The Lonely Mountain

[TheGallows]

8 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

 4 sales in the UK alone today - that´s probably better than Lego Shop did when it was still in production!

Hopefully some of the QFLL´s have now run out of stock or at least started to get a bit greedier and this thing can get back on the growth curve.

What were they selling at £110, £120? I would think its the lucky people that managed to pick these up for £50 selling at that price. Unfortunately I'm gonna have to wait to until at least this time next year to double my £85 average buy in. I'll prob hold for 2ish though as I have high hopes for his set.

[Val-E]

Less than 100 quid. These people should open up poundland franchises if they want to move volume cheaply.

Edited November 4, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Ciglione]

4 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

Less than 100 quid. These people should open up poundland franchises if they want to move volume cheaply.

So... what is the big hush? I am glad I changed my mind on buying these.

[TheGallows]

Its only been EOL a few months though, too soon to tell either way

[Val-E]

So long as the QFLL ones are being sold to real buyers who are popping the seals it should do fine. If it´s another TH reseller to reseller hatchet job, then forget any growth from this set short term.

[fossilrock]

This set is such an enigma to me.  When it first came out, I started buying it as much as I could, when I saw it wasn't making it to target and walmart shelves, but only seemed to be offered online and at TRU (in small sporadic batches). So, I grabbed quite a bunch of these, and inow, we sit here in the states, and this thing is about to go in the next few months.  I have a feeling, it will blow out of Amazon soon, and then it will sit at 139.99 for months at TRU until it finally goes. Part of me wants to grab more, and then part of me says "stop", so I sit idle.  However, I think long term this set will be one of those to have.  Take the Harry Potter or Indy Jones lines - theres quite a few sets in those lines that stuck out.  To me this is one of 5 sets in the Hobbit/LOTR line that sticks out and will be good to have.  Will they sell fast 4 or 5 years from now?  Probably not, so I wouldn't want to be sitting on 100s.

[freakchem]

8 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

This set is such an enigma to me.  When it first came out, I started buying it as much as I could, when I saw it wasn't making it to target and walmart shelves, but only seemed to be offered online and at TRU (in small sporadic batches). So, I grabbed quite a bunch of these, and inow, we sit here in the states, and this thing is about to go in the next few months.  I have a feeling, it will blow out of Amazon soon, and then it will sit at 139.99 for months at TRU until it finally goes. Part of me wants to grab more, and then part of me says "stop", so I sit idle.  However, I think long term this set will be one of those to have.  Take the Harry Potter or Indy Jones lines - theres quite a few sets in those lines that stuck out.  To me this is one of 5 sets in the Hobbit/LOTR line that sticks out and will be good to have.  Will they sell fast 4 or 5 years from now?  Probably not, so I wouldn't want to be sitting on 100s.

It has Smaug! The maxi figure you won't be able to find anywhere else. I think it will do well. Just give it more time.

[fossilrock]

6 minutes ago, freakchem said:

It has Smaug! The maxi figure you won't be able to find anywhere else. I think it will do well. Just give it more time.

Yep, and that's one reason I think it will do really well.  Smaug is "the character" in the hobbit series, and this set and the Unexpected Gathering are the two from the hobbit line to have long term.  I plan on holding these for years.. so I already have my stash packed up and sealed in a box and put deep out of sight.  In fact, I view all of my LOTR/Hobbit sets that way.  But on the same token, now that all these are going out, i'm sort of getting investment fatigue, but I probably will buy a few more.

[biniou]

14 hours ago, freakchem said:

It has Smaug! The maxi figure you won't be able to find anywhere else. I think it will do well. Just give it more time.

...more time, but not "much more", because the mold could be used for some other sets (Castle...)

Edited November 5, 2015 by biniou

[Val-E]

Meanwhile, still churning them out at RRP in the UK - it would be hilarious if these are all being bought by resellers .

[fossilrock]

There's 5 left in stock at amazon.  I decided to buy 2 more... that will leave Toys R' Us as the last of the retailers to still have these in stock within the US.

What I do like is that it currently has a low reseller count on amazon if you go by current and typical "hoarding standards".  Usually sets like this would be over a hundred, not under 50. People are skipping over this obviously, which is a good sign, since I think there is not nearly as many of these made as other hobbit sets.

[Guest]

I need discounts over 20% on this one before I buy any more than what I have

[fossilrock]

There's not going to be anymore discounts on these as stock is depleting and will more than likely be gone by retailers in less than a month.  Looks like 116.95 will be the lowest one can get them... and now there are 2 left, other than what's left at TRU at that price.   I'm convinced, this set will easily make it's money back and then some within a year. 

Edited November 5, 2015 by fossilrock

[mudcatsfan]

7 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Well, there's not going to be anymore discounts on these..  Stock is depleting.  Looks like 116.95 will be the lowest one can get them... and now there are 2 left, other than what's left at TRU at that price.

We thought there weren't going to be anymore discounts, months ago when Lego sold them at discount prices in store.  Yet here they are still available and 10% off on Amazon.

You're speaking with certainty when we don't know the facts.

That being said, i do think 10% off plus whatever CC discounts (discover 5%) make this a nice time to grab a few, especially if you have not yet.

TRU around me still have them and with TRUTH is also a solid option.

Edited November 5, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[fossilrock]

8 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

We thought there weren't going to be anymore discounts, months ago when Lego sold them at discount prices in store.  Yet here they are still available and 10% off on Amazon.

You're speaking with certainty when we dont know the facts.

Well, it's retired in the EU, sold out at Shop at home in the States.  It will be OOS from Amazon by today, and is OOS at target too.  I'm not speaking with certainty, but i'm fairly positive this is going away.  What happened back in March shouldn't apply to what is happening today.

These aren't in stock at any TRU in my area and haven't been for many months.

Edited November 5, 2015 by fossilrock

[mudcatsfan]

8 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Well, it's retired in the EU, sold out at Shop at home in the States.  It will be OOS from Amazon by today, and is OOS at target too.  I'm not speaking with certainty, but i'm fairly positive this is going away.  What happened back in March shouldn't apply to what is happening today.

It's also available at Walmart.com by the way. same discounted price. No apparent limit in the drop down.

........and Barnes and Noble.com no discount

Edited November 5, 2015 by mudcatsfan

[zskid00]

I have no idea how many might be in the TRU warehouse, but of the three stores around here there is one damaged box sitting on a shelf and even that one may be gone now.  Many Walmart and Targets by me never carried it and it's long gone from Meijer where I picked up most of mine at a nice discount.

Edited November 5, 2015 by zskid00

[mudcatsfan]

5 minutes ago, fossilrock said:

Well, it's retired in the EU, sold out at Shop at home in the States.  It will be OOS from Amazon by today, and is OOS at target too.  I'm not speaking with certainty, but i'm fairly positive this is going away.  What happened back in March shouldn't apply to what is happening today.

It's also available at Walmart.com by the way. same discounted price. No apparent limit in the drop down.

[Guest]

11 minutes ago, mudcatsfan said:

We thought there weren't going to be anymore discounts, months ago when Lego sold them at discount prices in store.  Yet here they are still available and 10% off on Amazon.

You're speaking with certainty when we don't know the facts.

That being said, i do think 10% off plus whatever CC discounts (discover 5%) make this a nice time to grab a few, especially if you have not yet.

TRU around me still have them and with TRUTH is also a solid option.

My issue is the 10% off barely covers tax and I don't do my discounts on the front end. If I pay $120 for something and get $6 back in rewards to use a later date, well I still paid 120 for the LM. Until I use those rewards on something no money was saved. I take the discount on the set I buy with the rewards. Makes my math so much easier. So basically, I can get it msrp, maybe a tad less. Maybe I can use some rewards + gc magic at TRU to get a few more. If not, the 4 I have already will be enough.

[mudcatsfan]

14 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

My issue is the 10% off barely covers tax and I don't do my discounts on the front end. If I pay $120 for something and get $6 back in rewards to use a later date, well I still paid 120 for the LM. Until I use those rewards on something no money was saved. I take the discount on the set I buy with the rewards. Makes my math so much easier. So basically, I can get it msrp, maybe a tad less. Maybe I can use some rewards + gc magic at TRU to get a few more. If not, the 4 I have already will be enough.

thats' fair on counting the cash back on your next transaction, but saying 10% barely covers tax is irrelevant. Tax is tax. Unless you're from delaware, a priest, or an out-of-the-closet reseller.

10% plus some cash back shouldn't make anyone jump at a set they only half-believe in. 

BUT if you do think this is a winner, and if you think it's closer to the end than its beginning, then 10% plus some scratch on the back end is a winning play.

[fossilrock]

This just went OOS at amazon, and jumped back up to RRP and is now in the hands of the reseller market.  Amazon, will probably see them trickle back in and out of stock a few more times again, but judging from what i've seen with other hobbit sets on Amazon that have disappeared, I wouldn't expect to see many more in stock there.  That leaves two major retailers, and i'm guessing they won't last beyond black friday..  Long term, i'm satisfied with these sets as an investment, and i'm not going to fret over 15.00, because I see them easily over 250 to 300.00 in time.  The pros and cons of this set have been hammered many times in this thread, and I feel either your are a believer or not.  I'm a believer in this one, and when I look at all the sets that are nearing EOL right now, this is definitely one of 5 IMO to snag right now.  

Some of the staple sets from Indy and Harry Potter are already hovering in the 350 to 400 mark for MIB sets.  And this IMO, is a staple set and the LOTR/Hobbit line does have the nerd factor built into it, so these will go the same way.

I've really been on the fence about this one for a while, but now that it's nearing retirement here in the states, it's sort of sad watching the hobbit line go away, but it is going away and once the last of these sets go OOS at TRU, that's when we will begin to see the entire line begin to appreciate.  This LOTR/Hobbit series was what truly what got my son and I into lego sets.  Before that period, I only bought architecture sets..

As I sit around analyzing what to spend my monthly budget on for November/December/early January, the Lonely Mountain is definitely a top 5 investment buy, IMO regardless if you buy it at RRP or not, because the real question is will this be a 2x or 3x set.  I see it as a 3x set.  

[exciter1]

This one will disappear quick.

[mudcatsfan]

14 minutes ago, MarxMarvelous said:

My issue is the 10% off barely covers tax and I don't do my discounts on the front end. If I pay $120 for something and get $6 back in rewards to use a later date, well I still paid 120 for the LM. Until I use those rewards on something no money was saved. I take the discount on the set I buy with the rewards. Makes my math so much easier. So basically, I can get it msrp, maybe a tad less. Maybe I can use some rewards + gc magic at TRU to get a few more. If not, the 4 I have already will be enough.

thats' fair on counting the cash back on your next transaction, but saying 10% barely covers tax is irrelevant. Tax is tax. Unless you're from delaware, a priest, or an out-of-the-closet reseller.

10% plus some cash back shouldn't make anyone jump at a set they only half-believe in. 

BUT if you do think this is a winner, and if you think it's closer to the end than its beginning, then 10% plus some scratch on the back end is a winning play.

[Val-E]

Looks as though the UK bargain basement sellers are finally out of stock or holding back for xmas so we can see how this one develops on the free market with real prices. Cheapest now are 160 euros plus shipping.

[TigerG]

Don't hold your breath - Dreamland Belgium had lots of LM in store during the 15% off sale that were already reduced so they could be bought around 80 Euros - there is still a lot of stock out there that was bought deeply discounted so it might still be some time until the prices go up.