79018 - The Lonely Mountain

[fossilrock]

I don't think Vampyre Castle is a good comparison.  That's a lego licensed line, and just doesn't have the billion dollar movies and classic books behind it. Comparing it to modulars is also a stretch.  Now, Rancor Pit, and Jurassic World… now we are talking because the sets are very similar in  that they have a large maxi figure included..  But those sets are still young and Rancor Pit hasn't been retired long enough yet.  I also do like the Lonely Mountain set.  It compacts  and covers a lot of the sets within the lonely mountain in the movie.  There is no possible way they could make a lonely mountain set based on the scenes in the movie.  The dwarf cavern was vast, grand and gigantic.  It would be the size of someones 3000 square foot house to pull it off at mini figure scale.  But, they convered many of the key details.  I personally, really like the Lonely Mountain set, and consider the best of the hobbit line.

[zskid00]

It is a nice set, but the Unexpected Gathering takes the cake for best set in the Hobbit theme for me. 

[denosya]

The same ! 79003 is my favorite.

Edited June 26, 2015 by denosya

[Jules_K]

Not that they are a major Lego retailer, but I noticed B&N sold out of this set online over the weekend.

[Val-E]

9 left @ Amazon Europe

[fantomas007]

I am very interested in future price development of this set. As somebody mentioned, this set has many disadvantages - poor sales, horrible price per piece ratio, bad design, end of movies, etc. To be honest, this set is really horrible and i cannot imagine worse lonely montain set - first of all, interieror oriented sets are not popular and doesnt look nice on the shelve. I also cannot understand why TLG didnt use metalic / chrome gold bricks instead of pearl - this set was great opportunity for using many metalic parts, coins, nugets, which would be usefull for MOCs. Another problem is a lack of rare figs (except Smaug). And this set is extremly overpriced (to be honest, also after 50 % discount i would doubt to buy it). As result, nobody can be surprised that this set is horrible selling. I bought one yesterday, full of dust. Only Hobbit fanatics can buy it, because of Smaug. No one else. Children and their parents have much more better options for big set in such price.

But also there are big factors for rise - soon, unexpected EOL + rare dragon. In future, every hard core Hobbit fan will need this set to have complete scene - there are no other sets with Smaug. People can replaced many figs, but no Smaug. Plus, this set has had extremly short life. I remember unexpected EOL for Zombie set from monster fighters serie - it was also poor designed and overpriced set, but has rare zombies + short EOL after 6 months. The prices soon went to double. There was no other monster set with such rapid rise (except exclusive HH), even there were much better looking sets (vampyre castle). So these factors are for rise of this set. But I think that this rise will be slow. And thinking of unexpected slow rise of Diagon Alley from Harry Potter (although it was exclusive set, full of rare figs), I would be very careful with buying many sets. Plus, the whole LOTR/Hobbit serie is a great failure and disappointment for me - I expected that this serie is winner, since the fans of this theme are aged 15 and above, so mostly AFOLs. So i have decreased my plans of big stocks of these sets - max 10 pieces of LOTR sets and some nice Hobbit sets, and 5 pieces for the rest of Hobbit sets. I am very undecided with the Lonely montain set - normally I would wait for big discounts and buy 5 pieces, but now there is no way for discounts and I dont know how the unexpected EOL will work. Panic buying for full price is a nightmare scenario for me...

[Ciglione]

I am very interested in future price development of this set. As somebody mentioned, this set has many disadvantages - poor sales, horrible price per piece ratio, bad design, end of movies, etc. To be honest, this set is really horrible and i cannot imagine worse lonely montain set - first of all, interieror oriented sets are not popular and doesnt look nice on the shelve. I also cannot understand why TLG didnt use metalic / chrome gold bricks instead of pearl - this set was great opportunity for using many metalic parts, coins, nugets, which would be usefull for MOCs. Another problem is a lack of rare figs (except Smaug). And this set is extremly overpriced (to be honest, also after 50 % discount i would doubt to buy it). As result, nobody can be surprised that this set is horrible selling. I bought one yesterday, full of dust. Only Hobbit fanatics can buy it, because of Smaug. No one else. Children and their parents have much more better options for big set in such price.

But also there are big factors for rise - soon, unexpected EOL + rare dragon. In future, every hard core Hobbit fan will need this set to have complete scene - there are no other sets with Smaug. People can replaced many figs, but no Smaug. Plus, this set has had extremly short life. I remember unexpected EOL for Zombie set from monster fighters serie - it was also poor designed and overpriced set, but has rare zombies + short EOL after 6 months. The prices soon went to double. There was no other monster set with such rapid rise (except exclusive HH), even there were much better looking sets (vampyre castle). So these factors are for rise of this set. But I think that this rise will be slow. And thinking of unexpected slow rise of Diagon Alley from Harry Potter (although it was exclusive set, full of rare figs), I would be very careful with buying many sets. Plus, the whole LOTR/Hobbit serie is a great failure and disappointment for me - I expected that this serie is winner, since the fans of this theme are aged 15 and above, so mostly AFOLs. So i have decreased my plans of big stocks of these sets - max 10 pieces of LOTR sets and some nice Hobbit sets, and 5 pieces for the rest of Hobbit sets. I am very undecided with the Lonely montain set - normally I would wait for big discounts and buy 5 pieces, but now there is no way for discounts and I dont know how the unexpected EOL will work. Panic buying for full price is a nightmare scenario for me...

For what it is worth... I just ordered 2 more.

And... I am absolutely no Hobbit fan!

Edited June 29, 2015 by Ciglione

[Jules_K]

Despite the sets shortcomings, I still think it is worth the risk and at least putting some money into.

Reviews generally have been positive with this set, it's the price that seems to be the main criticism, and perhaps why it's been a bad seller. 

[JM123]

I'm taking the gamble. What's a gamble? Buying 20-25% below retail price should hedge my risk enormously.

[Ciglione]

Despite the sets shortcomings, I still think it is worth the risk and at least putting some money into.

Reviews generally have been positive with this set, it's the price that seems to be the main criticism, and perhaps why it's been a bad seller. 

Was it not a general consensus here to try to avoid buying at RRP?  I guess many who bought this set honoured this rule of thumb. 

[tractorboy]

....

But also there are big factors for rise - soon, unexpected EOL + rare dragon. In future, every hard core Hobbit fan will need this set to have complete scene - there are no other sets with Smaug. People can replaced many figs, but no Smaug.

....

Very easy to just buy the Smaug fig from ebay or BL. I'm sure this is what a lot of people do when it comes to EOL sets with desirable figs. This is why I'd be dubious about fig heavy sets like this.

[fossilrock]

Was it not a general consensus here to try to avoid buying at RRP?  I guess many who bought this set honoured this rule of thumb. 

I bought a few at TRU early in the game at retail.  Unfortunately, i've seen few discounts on this, other than trying to use points and discount cards.  I managed to score a couple at a Lego Store during the March sale around 100.00 (so, that evened out my purchase at TRU), but there was a point where it was looking like this set was not going to be on other sites.  Target and Walmart did not have them in stock (in fact they never had them on the shelves here), and B&N did have them online, but i've never seen them in the stores.  I have a good feeling about this set, to be honest.  If Unexpected Gathering can rise in value (which it has), then surely this one can too.  Riddles for the Ring has also gone beyond 2XRIP in a few months time, and Lake Town Chase has also risen nicely, and think that will hit 2x very soon.  So the Hobbit series is not a bust like many proclaim.  Some sets are not great.  Sets like the Goblin King (even though it's kinda cool), and Barrel Escape haven't gone anywhere.  Escape from Mirkwood Spiders, Attack of the Wargs, and Dol Guldur Ambush are also rising in value but its not furious out of the gates.  Right now in the states, there are still 6 of the 14 sets that can be found and are not retired.  Only 8 have retired

So that leaves 3 out of 8 sets have done well just after retirement, 3 out of the 8 are showing moderate signs of growth, and 2 sets are not doing well.  Why do people always harp on the 2 and proclaim a series dead?  Doesn't seem realistic to what is actually happening.

[Jules_K]

Was it not a general consensus here to try to avoid buying at RRP?  I guess many who bought this set honoured this rule of thumb. 

True, however doesn't the 8 month life of this set make buying at RRP more feasible for investors?

[fantomas007]

Very easy to just buy the Smaug fig from ebay or BL. I'm sure this is what a lot of people do when it comes to EOL sets with desirable figs. This is why I'd be dubious about fig heavy sets like this.

You are right - but what do you think that happen with the price of Smaug several months after EOL? Now is EUR 50-55, set can be bought for EUR 115 (in my country). If the set hits EUR 200, the Smaug hit EUR 100. Hard to beat the situation, when a rare fig is just in 1 big set. Look at the prices of figs from retired sets from 1. LOTR wave - many people can finally decide to buy the whole set. OK, this is a special situation, the whole set is really worthless, no rare figs, and every AFOL can build much better MOC. So buying just Smaugs is a way how to invest (plus much better storage factor).

[fossilrock]

You are right - but what do you think that happen with the price of Smaug several months after EOL? Now is EUR 50-55, set can be bought for EUR 115 (in my country). If the set hits EUR 200, the Smaug hit EUR 100. Hard to beat the situation, when a rare fig is just in 1 big set. Look at the prices of figs from retired sets from 1. LOTR wave - many people can finally decide to buy the whole set. OK, this is a special situation, the whole set is really worthless, no rare figs, and every AFOL can build much better MOC. So buying just Smaugs is a way how to invest (plus much better storage factor).

Have you built the set?

[denosya]

Actually, I built this set with my 4 year old son, and we had a lot of fun. The playability is quite cool. I like to think the building itself has its own value, with or without Smaug. 

Also to be considered, the Smaug maxifig won't live/last very long if played by children. It is way not as solid as a common minifig. People will certainly need a spare Smaug at some point!   

Edited June 29, 2015 by denosya

[fossilrock]

Actually, I built this set with my 4 year old son, and we had a lot of fun. The playability is quite cool. I like to think the building itself has its own value, with or without Smaug. 

Also to be considered, the Smaug maxifig won't live/last very long if played by children. It is way not as solid as a common minifig. People will certainly need a spare Smaug at some point!   

Agreed.  A lot that seem to be bashing this probably haven't actually built it or seen it in person.

[Val-E]

OOS at Amazon but they say they will get more on July 8th. Interesting to see if that will happen.

[Ciglione]

OOS at Amazon but they say they will get more on July 8th. Interesting to see if that will happen.

Yeah, probably third-party reseller scum.

[Val-E]

They said that about my GE and I am still waiting.....

[DenJ91]

pay no attention to the bashers of this set.  it's all opinion anyway, no one can judge what the entire population thinks of it.  one person hates it, another loves it.  simple as that.  i've stated before that this set has A LOT going on for it.  this set has never been heavily discounted and rare to find discounts at all.  i believe in it, but i'm just one OPINION.  don't think you should horde them, but to get a couple, why not.  

[denosya]

Yeah, probably third-party reseller scum.

Actually, you can still order at 119€ (with delivery on the 8th of July). 

But maybe you'll get a message like I did a couple of weeks ago :

Hello,

We’ve cancelled Asin: B00I4IWH06 - Title: LEGO The Hobbit 79017: Battle of Five Armies from your order 204-3806060-8897134.

Unfortunately, we’re no longer able to offer this item for sale. Our supplier has informed us that this item has been discontinued and is no longer available.  You may find that it's still available from third-party Sellers on Amazon.co.uk Marketplace but I'm afraid we can't source stock from these Sellers.

We’re sorry for any inconvenience caused and hope to see you again soon.

Regards,

Customer Service Department
Amazon.co.uk

 

[JM123]

You are right - but what do you think that happen with the price of Smaug several months after EOL? Now is EUR 50-55, set can be bought for EUR 115 (in my country). If the set hits EUR 200, the Smaug hit EUR 100. Hard to beat the situation, when a rare fig is just in 1 big set. Look at the prices of figs from retired sets from 1. LOTR wave - many people can finally decide to buy the whole set. OK, this is a special situation, the whole set is really worthless, no rare figs, and every AFOL can build much better MOC. So buying just Smaugs is a way how to invest (plus much better storage factor).

Many (perhaps all) of the minifig's do however have unique printing? Let's call it 'half exclusive' minifigs? ;-)

Furthermore, there are several set unique parts. If you like the design or not, this is certainly a set loaded with special bricks (a lot of gold and sandgreen bricks). 

Edited June 29, 2015 by JM123

[thekragle]

I think this set will at least get you a 50% profit eventually at the minimum... $200+

Yes you could buy Smaug by himself but I think most people like thinking (and saying)  I have a sealed Smaug set.

 

[Val-E]

Now that that is settled, are there perhaps any other sets from  the 2014 Hobbit wave that are missing people´s attention and will likely be the real sleepers? It´s always easier for a cheaper set to double or triple in price, after all.