79018 - The Lonely Mountain

[dcdfan]

Retiring a set that large after 6 months? How do they even recoup the research, development, tooling, manufacturing, shipping, warehousing and employee costs, let alone make any profit?

This is incredible for us. This is a gift. I predict these will be gold.

[Grynn]

It seems apparent the sun is setting on this line. Lonely Mountain, by all accounts, was a very poor seller. It's a big price tag for "just a dragon" in a lot of people's minds. Until the horde catches the scent, the currently large stockpile of these will last, then all at once the secondary market is going to blast off into space. I believe.

[biking_tiger]

The LOTR sets hung on for a long while after the sun set. I believe in LM long term, but I don't know when we'll see the last of it. Six months seems pretty quick for them to even recoup the set up/development cost of everyone's favorite dragon.

 

I have no knowledge or even logic on my side, but my gut tells me they'll last through Christmas at least. Wave 2 (Desolation of Smaug) sets are still available at MSRP online. If the horde hoards, TLG might even fire up the assembly line for another run or four. I hear such things have happened before... but maybe that's just a rumor. 

[JDLego324]

Lone Ranger lasted about 6 months.

There are other precedents for poor sellers disappearing in that short of a time.

[biking_tiger]

Lone Ranger lasted about 6 months.

There are other precedents for poor sellers disappearing in that short of a time.

 

Of course there are. But LR is no Hobbit. I don't need sales numbers to explain.

[WildBricks]

I was actually surprised that Lego developed the Lone Ranger series. You would have to be 60 or older to really remember that show. That does not fit in Legos primary target demographic.

I did purchase one Lone Ranger train set on sale though...

Edited April 8, 2015 by WildBricks

[Battrax]

I was actually surprised that Lego developed the Lone Ranger series. You would have to be 60 or older to really remember that show. That does not fit in Legos primary target demographic.

I did purchase one Lone Ranger train set on sale though...

 

It was a tie in to this, I believe: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lone_Ranger_(2013_film)

Edited April 8, 2015 by steliosk

[cly2830301]

Lego Hobbit sets all disappeared at local retailer here in Australia. Some online retailers are already selling the LM with a premium. Plus the license with the Hobbit ends this year. So I dont see any sign they are producing more.

[WildBricks]

Wow, I think I was totally oblivious to this Lone Ranger movie.

[mscheaf]

Plus the license with the Hobbit ends this year.

 

Link?

[exciter1]

Link?

 

http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/11245-79018-the-lonely-mountain/?p=394835

[MillerTime]

Retiring a set that large after 6 months? How do they even recoup the research, development, tooling, manufacturing, shipping, warehousing and employee costs, let alone make any profit?

 

Successful businesses don't make decisions based on making profit on every single decision they do - they base decisions on maximizing total profit. Cutting losses over sunk costs on a bad-selling set to make way for a better selling set is a strong business decision.

[Mathew]

Lego probably ran calculations based on how the set was selling vs. how many they had inventoried at brick and mortar locations.  They decided that they had to discount the set to move inventory based on the eventual EOL.  My guess is that they want everything moved in time for the summer wave of Star Wars and Jurassic World sets.

[chinothegeeko]

Successful businesses don't make decisions based on making profit on every single decision they do - they base decisions on maximizing total profit. Cutting losses over sunk costs on a bad-selling set to make way for a better selling set is a strong business decision.

and that is when it's MillerTime.

 

I just hope I can get this on a decent discount (<$100)  Someone is buying them up at Toys R Us locally. 

[biking_tiger]

Successful businesses don't make decisions based on making profit on every single decision they do - they base decisions on maximizing total profit. Cutting losses over sunk costs on a bad-selling set to make way for a better selling set is a strong business decision.

 

Yes--absolutely. But does anyone have actual sales numbers? Of course not. All I've read here is speculation and guesswork. How is The Hobbit line performing based on TLG's projections?

 

Maybe a 20% sale in early March was just a way to get bodies into B&M stores during a slow selling season. Again, pure speculation.

 

None of us know.

[dcdfan]

Yes--absolutely. But does anyone have actual sales numbers? Of course not. All I've read here is speculation and guesswork. How is The Hobbit line performing based on TLG's projections?

Maybe a 20% sale in early March was just a way to get bodies into B&M stores during a slow selling season. Again, pure speculation.

None of us know.

I think maybe this is a slow moving set as someone pointed out maybe it is seen as "just an expensive dragon" but where was the sale advertised "to get bodies into B&M stores during a slow selling season"? I only saw it on BP.

[biking_tiger]

I think maybe this is a slow moving set as someone pointed out maybe it is seen as "just an expensive dragon" but where was the sale advertised "to get bodies into B&M stores during a slow selling season"? I only saw it on BP.

 

I don't think it was advertised. I'm only speculating a possible reason for the sale that didn't coincide with EOL--no one accuses Lego of quality point-of-sale procedures. If it was done-done, the discount would follow online, wouldn't it?

[Sprocket77]

I can get these at €100 at the moment, was just wondering whether people think that's a good buy in.

Would people consider buying two of these vs 1 ToO or 1 Red Five?

 

 

[fossilrock]

I can get these at €100 at the moment, was just wondering whether people think that's a good buy in.

Would people consider buying two of these vs 1 ToO or 1 Red Five?

​That's truly an impossible question to answer, since the TOO, Red5, and LM all have potential to go up in value.  If your buy in is good with the Lonely Mountain you then you may want to take the risk.  The ToO, and Red5 seem very horded at the moment, while the Lonely Mountain doesn't seem to get near the attention since it's not "exclusive".  But, it's a real crap shoot.  I'm still a believer in this set.

[Wildemar]

This was on sale (LEGO Shop at Home EU) for 90.99 € and it sold out very quickly.

Yesterday they had 158 in stock (no restock at least since March), 13 minutes after midnight it was at "call to check availability". I guess it's sold out for good now.

[Jules_K]

Wow so the set was available about 9 months in total? 

It will be very interesting to see how the price reacts now, this set is available absolutely nowhere in Australia at this point in time. 

[Tpkuk]

Missed again - was up at midnight too but didn't think of checking the Lego site. Asda has had the other hobbit sets at 50% off for around a month so get them while you can

[Tpkuk]

Lego working quick this morning - now listed as retired product!

[JM123]

Few days and it will be sold out everywhere in Europe. It's a bit of a gamble.. but it will certainly become a rare set :-) and there is mainly one thing I learned in my short Lego career up till now: Rare = desirable

[Jules_K]

Availability still seems quite widespread in the US (at least online), I wonder what happens now that it is gone in Europe.

A headlining set with 8 month availability and a highly desirable maxifig, I'm very bullish on this one.

Edited June 24, 2015 by jkaesler