zskid00 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 If not how many R2 would you take for your HH? 1 1/2, but only if it's the top half of R2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 (edited) @naf: price/weight is a proxy for value. Lots of people actually do use price/piece to value sets (read reviews, discussions, etc.). I prefer price/weight, even though it usually correlates, because it rightly credits certain sets (like trains) for having unusually large pieces (like track). Anyway, does anyone expect the same level of returns from, for example, a $3.99 CMF figure versus a $2.99 CMF figure, where the series are essentially identical in appeal and differ only in MSRP? Lego is steadily increasing prices, far above the rate of inflation (or income growth of our target customers), and this does cut into returns, especially for an exclusive that is generally bought at or around MSRP. As I said before, interactivity with other sets and minifigures is a concern for those sets that are aimed at a younger audience. HH has it. DS has it. The first Sandcrawler had it, and so does the second one. R2 does not. For me, it lacks the sublime 'wow' factor of some of the big UCS ships. It's not very big. 12 by 7 inches, according to Lego. It looks like a toy, but it can't really be played with. I don't think most people who will be buying this in the secondary market, will be buying it for a toy. It's a display piece, and one that even non-SW fans would recognize. I could even see some SW fans who aren't even that into Lego wanting this set. It's not a set that's really aimed at kids, though some kids might like it. As an older Lego fan, this set appeals to me way more than DS, Sandcrawler, etc. And as an adult, I've got the money to spend on it. Edited November 11, 2014 by tractorboy 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bold-Arrow Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I don't think it is too early at all. In 5 years a 2 month gap on retirement date won't make a difference. Would anyone genuinely trade HH straight across for R2? If not how many R2 would you take for your HH? I think we will get more chances to buy R2 than HH sets hence the early part. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Young_Gun21 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Then why is the VW Camper still in production? Lego has the Star Wars license for another few years (or more). If it's selling so well, from a pure business stand point it would make no sense to discontinue it at this time. I said the same about the Haunted House and Town Halls. Probably not big sellers due to their high price points. Yes, yes, the UCS Falcon was a slow seller but the main reason it's so sought after in the after market is because so few were hoarded away. There will be 1000x the number of R2's, Town Halls and Haunted Houses on the after market.Not to start a frantic panic buy but no one knows if the T1 is in production. R2 was still in production a week ago. Look at the FB. Everyone said its overhoarded and it has doubled in a year. We have yet to reach a point where investors have stopped secondary growth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mudcatsfan Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 @naf: price/weight is a proxy for value. Lots of people actually do use price/piece to value sets (read reviews, discussions, etc.). I prefer price/weight, even though it usually correlates, because it rightly credits certain sets (like trains) for having unusually large pieces (like track). Anyway, does anyone expect the same level of returns from, for example, a $3.99 CMF figure versus a $2.99 CMF figure, where the series are essentially identical in appeal and differ only in MSRP? Lego is steadily increasing prices, far above the rate of inflation (or income growth of our target customers), and this does cut into returns, especially for an exclusive that is generally bought at or around MSRP. As I said before, interactivity with other sets and minifigures is a concern for those sets that are aimed at a younger audience. HH has it. DS has it. The first Sandcrawler had it, and so does the second one. R2 does not. For me, it lacks the sublime 'wow' factor of some of the big UCS ships. It's not very big. 12 by 7 inches, according to Lego. It looks like a toy, but it can't really be played with. I think folks take criticism about a particular set in the wrong way. Most folks have to make decisions when purchasing these sets. They can't buy them all. That means that its fair to say some sets are more highly desired than others for various reasons. That doesnt mean R2 can't be a total winner, but its fair to say, someone might much prefer another set over it. You're absolutely right that weight / price is a much better measure than pieces / price. Its also not a deal breaker, but i don't think you were saying that. Its just a 'strike' against R2. Compatibility with mini figures is absolutely another 'strike' against R2. There are some folks out there who only buy ships, or only buy ships they consider 'mini figure scale'. If some folks dont like busts, then its fair to say that will in some way limit R2's growth potential relative to something that has less 'strikes'. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trekgate502 Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I don't think it is too early at all. In 5 years a 2 month gap on retirement date won't make a difference. Would anyone genuinely trade HH straight across for R2 If not how many R2 would you take for your HH? I have no haunted houses and lots lots of R2-D2's it's my personal choice and I would not trade my R2-D2's for a haunted house. Only if you are a true Star Wars fan and a big R2-D2 fan can you appreciate this set in my opinion. There are millions of people that feel that way. Not everyone need agree. I think it's appreciation will do just fine. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mathew Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 The death Star is still in production for now but it to will have an end Sooner than most think I think Probably, eventually it has to go because it's a set from freakin' 2008 that hasn't had a single modification to it. The thing that I like about the Death Star is that as a set it has a lot of value in it: Playability, collectibility, weight, price per piece etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I don't think it is too early at all. In 5 years a 2 month gap on retirement date won't make a difference. Would anyone genuinely trade HH straight across for R2? If not how many R2 would you take for your HH? I don't know. That's why I have a few of both. Ask me again in 3 years time. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inversion Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 (edited) I wonder then what "signs" are you referring to ? Are they of "public" nature? We can observe only availability at retailers and change in limits. Not much else to observe... It's everything combined together plus the personal intuition. It's like EVERY investment in the economy. There are no obvious signs, everything carries a risk. Without risk there would be no yields. The profit you realise is the risk premium. The observation of stock (physical) fluctuations is similar to the technical analysis done with stocks (securities). It just tells you probabilities with measurement errors and some bias. Why do you think insider trading is forbidden after all? Edited November 11, 2014 by inversion 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Just done a retailer check here and a lot of places are now OOS or on their last few remaining units. It Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 @naf: price/weight is a proxy for value. Lots of people actually do use price/piece to value sets (read reviews, discussions, etc.). I prefer price/weight, even though it usually correlates, because it rightly credits certain sets (like trains) for having unusually large pieces (like track). Anyway, does anyone expect the same level of returns from, for example, a $3.99 CMF figure versus a $2.99 CMF figure, where the series are essentially identical in appeal and differ only in MSRP? Lego is steadily increasing prices, far above the rate of inflation (or income growth of our target customers), and this does cut into returns, especially for an exclusive that is generally bought at or around MSRP. As I said before, interactivity with other sets and minifigures is a concern for those sets that are aimed at a younger audience. HH has it. DS has it. The first Sandcrawler had it, and so does the second one. R2 does not. For me, it lacks the sublime 'wow' factor of some of the big UCS ships. It's not very big. 12 by 7 inches, according to Lego. It looks like a toy, but it can't really be played with. Who cares if the kids like this set? Do kids fly a $3000 10179 around a room? They aren't the ones dishing out $$800-1000 for one in the future. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysbricks Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 What I don't think people realize is someone publicly posted a list of retiring soon items way before there were signs being shown for most of the items. People mocked the person posting it but overall it went unnoticed. To date, every set on that list is showing signs of retiring, and one already has. We had the inside information and only some of us choose to use it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 There will be 1000x the number of R2's, Town Halls and Haunted Houses on the after market. No. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miami Bomb Squad Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I was watching House Hunters International and they were filming in Santo Domingo. There was a Lego R2D2 sitting inside a glass shelf in one of the Condos. Yes, In Dominican Republic. There's your sign! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 What I don't think people realize is someone publicly posted a list of retiring soon items way before there were signs being shown for most of the items. People mocked the person posting it but overall it went unnoticed. To date, every set on that list is showing signs of retiring, and one already has. We had the inside information and only some of us choose to use it I would think people making investment decisions based on random lists they see on the internet, are playing a dangerous game. Who's to know if it's right at the time? Hindsight is a wonderful thing. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonysbricks Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 I would think people making investment decisions based on random lists they see on the internet, are playing a dangerous game. Who's to know if it's right at the time? Hindsight is a wonderful thing. 100% agree. People who pay attention know this person wasn't some_random_guy_1923. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fuzzy_bricks Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Who cares if the kids like this set? Do kids fly a $3000 10179 around a room? They aren't the ones dishing out $$800-1000 for one in the future. There are parents that would pay that for their child. I don't know any but, IIRC there was a kid on here a while back that got ~$500 of Lego for his birthday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No More Monkeys Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 What I don't think people realize is someone publicly posted a list of retiring soon items way before there were signs being shown for most of the items. People mocked the person posting it but overall it went unnoticed. To date, every set on that list is showing signs of retiring, and one already has. We had the inside information and only some of us choose to use it Are you referring to http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/4008-retiring-soon-open-speculation/?p=333628 or http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/4008-retiring-soon-open-speculation/page-129#entry333640 Or there was something earlier? I don't see much mocking ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted November 11, 2014 Author Share Posted November 11, 2014 What I don't think people realize is someone publicly posted a list of retiring soon items way before there were signs being shown for most of the items. People mocked the person posting it but overall it went unnoticed. To date, every set on that list is showing signs of retiring, and one already has. We had the inside information and only some of us choose to use it This is 10000% the truth. Every day I read certain member's posts and they were correct on retiring sets. Many spoke with LEGO employees or others just made educated guesses based on some recent set activity. Throw in a bit of intuition and the correct predictions have been made more times than I can count, but many blow off the information and wait for the easy solutions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inversion Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Who cares if the kids like this set? Do kids fly a $3000 10179 around a room? They aren't the ones dishing out $$800-1000 for one in the future. People tend to forget here that the targeted consumer base of aftermarket exclusives is entirely different from the ones seen in flipping, parting out or selling smaller sets. First of all they have money. They think this way: I like it therefore I buy it. They don't measure price/weight ratio etc. They just buy what they like, they are not "cheap*ss". 100$ doesn't make a difference for those who buy sets priced close to 1000$. Also they are adults who don't really care that much about playability. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mathew Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 (edited) No. Oh come on now Ed. We know that it's in your best interest to keep stoking the flames of retirement and reselling. How much did you make on the Amazon click-throughs yesterday? Fire Brigade is currently selling for around $300 on ebay and it has been retired for almost a year now. My estimate is if R2 is really gone it will be cracking $375-400 around this time next year. Reselling is fine if you're happy with making a few hundred here and there but the initial investment (especially with the no discount policy) is pretty steep. Edited November 11, 2014 by Mathew Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 100% agree. People who pay attention know this person wasn't some_random_guy_1923. Oh, you mean an official 'retiring soon' list from Lego? Sorry, I misunderstood you. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Amazon EU have 1 left in stock @ 235 euros that I didn Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
asharerin Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Are you referring to http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/4008-retiring-soon-open-speculation/?p=333628 or http://community.brickpicker.com/topic/4008-retiring-soon-open-speculation/page-129#entry333640 Or there was something earlier? I don't see much mocking ... I believe he was referring to M4x18's post. My list was pure speculation. I have a feeling both lists are incomplete. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tractorboy Posted November 11, 2014 Share Posted November 11, 2014 Oh come on now Ed. We know that it's in your best interest to keep stoking the flames of retirement and reselling. How much did you make on the Amazon click-throughs yesterday? Fire Brigade is currently selling for around $300 on ebay and it has been retired for almost a year now. My estimate is if R2 is really gone it will be cracking $375-400 around this time next year. Reselling is fine if you're happy with making a few hundred here and there but the initial investment (especially with the no discount policy) is pretty steep. You don't think that's a good return on a $180 investment after a year? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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