10225 - UCS: R2-D2

[speedsausage]

If you were a LONG TIME lego reseller, what set would you be doing somersaults over when it retires!?!?

[10230]

That was my guess too..

Only - that is not available right now.

[Young_Gun21]

Guess again.

We need an even more cryptic post that will lead us to solving this mystery.

[Migration]

If you were a LONG TIME lego reseller, what set would you be doing somersaults over when it retires!?!?

Ed said no on that one twice. If it's the somersaulting tumbler than all bets are of as far as retirement schedules, I think it's the set who's thread we are all posting in.

Edited November 9, 2014 by Migration

[wooble]

It is in Europe =)

[tractorboy]

Only - that is not available right now.

I'm sure there will be ample time to stock up on it, for those that don't intend leaving it until the last minute.

And it's obviously a no-brainer set.

[LegoManiacc]

I don't think he was a good Password teammate.

 

Seriously, his hints for this one were "Brown", "Delightful" & "Expensive"...she never had a chance...

 

[allen9917]

If it is not death star or R2, it must be AA.

[LegoManiacc]

I think it's Tumbler based on the clue, but to be safe, why don't we just cast a wide net with a BP mutual fund...everyone buys 100 of a set and gets 1 share. I'll take care of the mixels.

Edited November 9, 2014 by LegoManiacc

[speedsausage]

Ed said no on that one twice. If it's the somersaulting tumbler than all bets are of as far as retirement schedules, I think it's the set who's thread we are all posting in.

I hear ya and honestly my very first thought was the thread we're posting in and 2nd was Empand Grorium until Big E. made the somersault comment. Maybe I'm reading into it too much, but I'll stay committed to The Steath Dar prediction!

[Migration]

I hear ya and honestly my very first thought was the thread we're posting in and 2nd was Empand Grorium until Big E. made the somersault comment. Maybe I'm reading into it too much, but I'll stay committed to The Steath Dar prediction!

I think many of us assumed he was talking about something retiring soon, without question the Tumbler is an excellent set to go "all Ed" on.

[capsa77]

The funny part is I think he responded to a post with what I believe was the answer, but it dissappeared when I refreshed the page. Now I just like reading all the comments, lol. (insert Michael Jackson meme) If Ed wants to post that response again, I'll let him do it.

[speedsausage]

I think many of us assumed he was talking about something retiring soon, without question the Tumbler is an excellent set to go "all Ed" on.

In retrospect, the question cross originally asked was regarding $200 sets, which the tumbler is and the DS isn't. Also Ed makes a point in saying "no one will have enough" which at this point, I'm guessing no one does have enough of the tumbler and I'm sure there are investors that definitely have more than enough DS's.

Now I'm wavering on my prediction but it doesn't matter, I have my one and only DS that I was getting. The tumbler on the other hand, I best be getting my butt into gear for at least 30 of these by Christmas!

[ToysPT]

In fact, i think that we can all agree that almost all of us have the least amount of "Tumblers" than would in the near future, but the question is: "set that is currently available"

 Is the Tumbler currently available on USA? I only know the info that i see on LEGO Shop at Home last days..

[boliramirez]

"all Ed" = Death...... there you go.......

Edited November 9, 2014 by boliramirez

[biniou]

Ed makes a point in saying "no one will have enough" which at this point, I'm guessing no one does have enough of the tumbler

 

IMHO you can't have enoug**** R2D2 because it's a great seller (even considering its price), the next SW movie will help him even more, and a UCS remake is very unlikely within the next 7-8 years.

 

If you think that the tumbler will stay in lego's catalog for just 3 months, I have no problem with that but I don't share the same opinion.

Edited November 9, 2014 by biniou

[Deejay]

Ewok Village

[Val-E]

Back in stock at Amazon EU

[Locutus001]

Everytime I read this razzle-dazzle Ed is causing I'm asking myself why some people here do assume that his advice (though cryptic enough that he could just as well have written "bananaramadamana")  is so much better than anything that they could come up with by using their own intuition on LEGO collecting/reselling.

 

There actually is a good chance that Ed is not a time lord who's traveld back to our time to tell us riddle-wise which set will perform best on the reseller marked.

If Ed would say today that everybody should buy 10531 because due to... it will be a winner, I fear that some people here might just switch of whatever analysing of the marked they do themselves and just go and buy it.

 

So in conclusion it probably is rather good that Ed is talking in riddles here (or rather not saying anything at all).

 

(So are you just looking for 10531? This one was under your radar wasn't it?! ;-) see how they are making somersaults! ^.^ )

 

I'll stick to my philosophy, that diversity is the best method to approach investing in anything.

[Ed Mack]

Does it come in black? c;

Yes.  Sorry that I could not approve this post yesterday from my phone.  

[Ed Mack]

tum

[Ed Mack]

Let's take a breath.  The question that Cross posted was about what $200 set at this moment should a person go "all Ed" in?  My answer, with a few easy and obvious clues was the Tumbler.  Chase.Ok figured it out, but I couldn't approve his post from the Iphone.  Am I saying this set is going to retire soon?  No, but really who knows?  LEGO is possibly messing with EOL dates and this is a prime candidate and the recent activity on LEGO S@H is odd.    

 

If the recent SSD, Haunted House and Town Hall experience has indicated anything, it has shown that you can never have enough of a grade A investment set.  It takes time to accumulate $200 LEGO sets and the Tumbler will be even more difficult to acquire than most.  While it is not readily available, it is available at many brick and mortar LEGO stores.  The Tumbler is a fantastic set.  It is also a Batman set, which only adds to its appeal.  Also, the new Batman movie won't hurt sales.  It's not always about timing retiring sets.  It's about sets that will explode in growth after retirement and acquiring enough of them to make a substantial profit.

[Frank Brickowski]

Let's take a breath.  The question that Cross posted was about what $200 set at this moment should a person go "all Ed" in?  My answer, with a few easy and obvious clues was the Tumbler.  Chase.Ok figured it out, but I couldn't approve his post from the Iphone.  Am I saying this set is going to retire soon?  No, but really who knows?  LEGO is possibly messing with EOL dates and this is a prime candidate and the recent activity on LEGO LEGO Shop at Home is odd.    

 

If the recent SSD, Haunted House and Town Hall experience has indicated anything, it has shown that you can never have enough of a grade A investment set.  It takes time to accumulate $200 LEGO sets and the Tumbler will be even more difficult to acquire than most.  While it is not readily available, it is available at many brick and mortar LEGO stores.  The Tumbler is a fantastic set.  It is also a Batman set, which only adds to its appeal.  Also, the new Batman movie wont hurt sales.  It's not always about timing retiring sets.  It's about sets that will explode in growth after retirement.

 

While calming down, I'd like to ask you: Ed, as soon as January has arrived, will there be another "all-in" set available from your perspective? As far as my judgment goes, I'd say that Slave 1 will be the hottest Star Wars item around once it has been released, even if a new big MF is coming. Slave 1 has never been done in this size and hardly at all.

[Ed Mack]

While calming down, I'd like to ask you: Ed, as soon as January has arrived, will there be another "all-in" set available from your perspective? As far as my judgment goes, I'd say that Slave 1 will be the hottest Star Wars item around once it has been released, even if a new big MF is coming. Slave 1 has never been done in this size and hardly at all.

Sure, the Slave I will be a "must hoard" set, even with the rumored Falcon remake.

[ZULU]

Hi guys

 

Lets put some perspective to this thread:

 

Whilst I respect people speculating when sets will retire, that doesn't mean I buy everything that is mentionted. It doesn't even influence my acquisition model much. 

In general I stick to the following buy/sell rules for exclusives (Normal sets, I buy when there's a steep discount at the end of its life):

 

1. Never buy sets the year they have been released. Unless it's of the "Lego Ideas" / Seasonal collection it's too soon to lock up capital. 

 

     => if you do, you'll have a stock of sets that need at least 3 years before really starting to appreciate. This lifts your working capital to unsustainable level and                reduces your RoC. The tumbler therefore is too soon to stock up. It will stay live another 2 years at least unless there's a design flaw. 

 

    => this also reduces the risk of having too many DS, TB (and SSD)  for too long for example. 

 

2.  Buy the best exclusives released > 2 years ago according to your own evaluation model: this means appreciation potential based on sales, stock, personal preference, regional segmentation, ... This site is full of advise on the matter, so do some reading  . I pick all these sets up at a regular rate. Emazers has a very successful system doing so, and I do take his advice in the matter. The 'Macks' also promote this way of buying and show you when and where the discounts are to pick the sets up at the best timing. (like last month for example)

 

   => There's also ample time to accelerate the buying when sets start to phase out. Regular screening of reseller sites and this one should help improve the timing           even more.  

 

3. Buy the exslusives you missed out on after they have retired if you feel they can appreciate. Even though that means you'll miss out on the discount effect, if the sets is really strong, you'll be able to go for the long-term appreciation. The surprise exit of TH might be a, interesting target. It's stats are good and the retirement earlier than expected. (at the same time of GE) You can still get it on BrickLink at a very good price

 

For info BL at 215E: http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?pg=1&q=town+hall&sz=10&searchSort=P

 

4. Buy exclusive rare sets that have very limited stock left but very high collector value. I rarely do this, but had some success in the matter (buying some Marina Bay Sands for example at MSRP +100%) It means you are speculating more money on even more appreciation, so the work to put in and risk analysis is higher. But so are the returns. 

 

For info: http://www.bricklink.com/search.asp?pg=1&q=bay+sands&sz=10&searchSort=P

 

All these comments are with one final purpose:  reduce your working capital and improve the returns on capital. Too many people have too many sets stocked away that are still produced by TLG. They have only limited space, and tend to sell too soon, just to free up space and money to get into another set. This pressures again the CAGR and RoC. Make your business model lean and mean. And be careful when you buy: know when you pull the trigger. Once you have a set, selling it will always be more difficult. 

 

I hope this helps.