76023 - The Tumbler

[Rimmit]

1 hour ago, Mos_Eisley said:

Sorry, but AA not taking off has nothing to do with CEOs' willingness to put it in their office.  The supply side of the chain is vastly under-appreciated. 

That is definitely part of it as for it to at least have a reasonable appreciation, it has to have broad appeal to get it off the ground, but to build a AA and put it in a nice den, or a more public place like an office, it has to have a "conversation" starting aspect to it.  AA doesn't.  It isn't a conversation starter.  I wouldn't put it in a nice glass display case to showcase to my friends.  The ISD, Imperial Shuttle, Millenium Falcon are all conversation pieces.  The Taj Mahal is as well, as is an Eiffel Tower. 

Another way I have found to gauge interest is number of reviews on Amazon and Lego LEGO Shop at Home compared to similar priced and sized sets.  The number of reviews for the Xwing and AA are significantly less than for the The Tumbler, and the Tumbler was not out that long.  That tells me people care about the product.  That tells me people want the product. 

The Modulars do great, because while it is not something that I would put in an executive office, it is something that you can make look GRAND in a basement that is setup to display Lego's. Who wouldn't want a whole town of legos?

1 hour ago, Mos_Eisley said:

There are a lot sets that could or should be homeruns, right up until everyone else comes to the same conclusion. 

1 hour ago, sauromosis said:

Great post @Rimmit 

Curious if you see any other large sets out there that fit the "CEO's Office" mold.

That is so true.  It is very difficult to pick a home run.  It is.  But in my days of collecting from baseball cards (ugh), Star Trek (ugh), Magic Cards from the 90's(yay),  Christie's catalogs (Don't ask),  Video game exclusives (Zelda does well), video game launches (Sold a PS3 for 3700 on Launch day to an architect in TX), Star Trek Art Asylum ships, and other garbage, Lego is the only thing I HAVE NEVER lost money on.  I might not get a 1000% percent return, but it's better than losing!!  I have learned one thing,  Lego's are the only thing that can have a "collector" tag on something and NOT lose money on it.

Is the Tumbler a guaranteed home run.  No.  But's the closest thing I have seen in a long time, and I haven't felt like this about a set in years.  It's the emotion that comes from seeing it.  The Imperial Shuttle, Slave I, ISD, SSD, Millenium Falcon all have that same feeling for me.  No one could have predicted the Falcon did as well as it did as it was the first of it's kind.  No one believed anyone would spend 500 on a lego, and definitely not 5k.  The market is out there,  Lego just has to make the right set.  The Tumbler in 5 years might hit 1000, as it just has that feeling.  Find me a stock that is guaranteed to gain at least 250% and possibly be homerun with 400% appreciation in 3-4 years.  I do stocks as I'm sure many of you other BPers do as well, but I will tell you most stocks that can get you those kinds of returns are far riskier, such as pharma with experimental drugs.  I've made 500%-750% in a day, and lost massive as well in the stock market in a day.  With Legos with the UCS and larger sets you can't lose.  You might not gain, but you can't lose, at least none of the sets I have ever bought have ever lost me money. 

In regard to the CEO Office "Mold"  There really isn't anything else on the slate right now that makes me personally feel that strongly.  Slave I maybe as it is very iconic.  I agree this isn't the perfect CEO of museum piece mold, hence why it will not reach crazy levels, but it's one of the closer things we've had in a looong time.

When I state CEO's office, while most would not display one, the point is that a set that looks like it could belong has at least the potential to be a home run vs one that does not.

We could analyze this all day, but ultimately, anyone that bought this set will not lose money which is the main thing we are ALL trying to avoid, and most likely make more than any other set in a while.  Glad to be back in the game.  Oh how I've missed it.

Edited January 11, 2016 by Rimmit

[pete411]

But you have to figure that just in the US, around 20-30k of these are in the hands of resellers. I bought 80% of my current stock well before the huge run in the past couple of weeks and many of the big time players have been stocking up since day one. How long will it take to burn through a good portion of this stock? You have to figure that the Falcon and Taj Majal had maybe 10% of that NISB. I'm not saying that this won't be a good investment but let's be realistic here. I'd be happy with $450 in 2-3 years.

[chipbee]

43 minutes ago, Miami Bomb Squad said:

I've heard many HR predictions that never make it over the fence. 
As with every set out there, only time will tell. 
I have a good amount of this set, Honestly, I wouldn't want to display one in my office. 
 

Hard to see many ceo who will display lego in the office, maybe the silicon valley type. Even then to display nolan's batmobile is a little too dark. A T1 camper might be more suitable.

[brad4815]

Just got my last one from Target today. Box was of course three times too big but well packed and the box was in good condition. Until I pull it out and see the seals have been popped. Ugh. Guess it'll be the one I keep for myself. Anybody able to tell me or point me to a review saying what bags the figures are in?

 

ETA: never mind used the search to find my answer. 

Edited January 11, 2016 by brad4815

[newbie77]

38 minutes ago, Rimmit said:

That is definitely part of it as for it to at least have a reasonable appreciation, it has to have broad appeal to get it off the ground, but to build a AA and put it in a nice den, or a more public place like an office, it has to have a "conversation" starting aspect to it.  AA doesn't.  It isn't a conversation starter.  I wouldn't put it in a nice glass display case to showcase to my friends.  The ISD, Imperial Shuttle, Millenium Falcon are all conversation pieces.  The Taj Mahal is as well, as is an Eiffel Tower. 

Another way I have found to gauge interest is number of reviews on Amazon and Lego LEGO Shop at Home compared to similar priced and sized sets.  The number of reviews for the Xwing and AA are significantly less than for the The Tumbler, and the Tumbler was not out that long.  That tells me people care about the product.  That tells me people want the product. 

The Modulars do great, because while it is not something that I would put in an executive office, it is something that you can make look GRAND in a basement that is setup to display Lego's. Who wouldn't want a whole town of legos?

That is so true.  It is very difficult to pick a home run.  It is.  But in my days of collecting from baseball cards (ugh), Star Trek (ugh), Magic Cards from the 90's(yay),  Christie's catalogs (Don't ask),  Video game exclusives (Zelda does well), video game launches (Sold a PS3 for 3700 on Launch day to an architect in TX), Star Trek Art Asylum ships, and other garbage, Lego is the only thing I HAVE NEVER lost money on.  I might not get a 1000% percent return, but it's better than losing!!  I have learned one thing,  Lego's are the only thing that can have a "collector" tag on something and NOT lose money on it.

Is the Tumbler a guaranteed home run.  No.  But's the closest thing I have seen in a long time, and I haven't felt like this about a set in years.  It's the emotion that comes from seeing it.  The Imperial Shuttle, Slave I, ISD, SSD, Millenium Falcon all have that same feeling for me.  No one could have predicted the Falcon did as well as it did as it was the first of it's kind.  No one believed anyone would spend 500 on a lego, and definitely not 5k.  The market is out there,  Lego just has to make the right set.  The Tumbler in 5 years might hit 1000, as it just has that feeling.  Find me a stock that is guaranteed to gain at least 250% and possibly be homerun with 400% appreciation in 3-4 years.  I do stocks as I'm sure many of you other BPers do as well, but I will tell you most stocks that can get you those kinds of returns are far riskier, such as pharma with experimental drugs.  I've made 500%-750% in a day, and lost massive as well in the stock market in a day.  With Legos with the UCS and larger sets you can't lose.  You might not gain, but you can't lose, at least none of the sets I have ever bought have ever lost me money. 

In regard to the CEO Office "Mold"  There really isn't anything else on the slate right now that makes me personally feel that strongly.  Slave I maybe as it is very iconic.  I agree this isn't the perfect CEO of museum piece mold, hence why it will not reach crazy levels, but it's one of the closer things we've had in a looong time.

When I state CEO's office, while most would not display one, the point is that a set that looks like it could belong has at least the potential to be a home run vs one that does not.

We could analyze this all day, but ultimately, anyone that bought this set will not lose money which is the main thing we are ALL trying to avoid, and most likely make more than any other set in a while.  Glad to be back in the game.  Oh how I've missed it.

" Find me a stock that is guaranteed to gain at least 250% and possibly be homerun with 400% appreciation in 3-4 years. " 

> it seems as if your comment means that 76023 has a guaranteed return of what you are looking for.

if you are that big in stock market then you should have known about how easy money is made. there is something called "arbitrage". with option there is lot of free $$ lying around until recently lot of option transactions are/were not even reported which meant that no-one paid taxes on all the profit made on those. and one can do all this sitting on a desk 'clickty-clack'.

why would one leave all that and take on "buying lego" and "selling lego". its not easy. and as some big LEGO seller pointed out. realistic expectation is 10% on ROI per year. 

any way we can come back to this thread in about 4 years and see what the price would be.

btw, i haven't seen all those $1500 for 10221 by x-mas and star war movies folks pounding their chests. 

realistically it would be a win if we see 2XRRP in 12-18 months and 3XRRP in 24->36 months provided TLG doesn't play a curve-ball here.

Edited January 11, 2016 by newbie77

[mfortunek]

15 minutes ago, brad4815 said:

Just got my last one from Target today. Box was of course three times too big but well packed and the box was in good condition. Until I pull it out and see the seals have been popped. Ugh. Guess it'll be the one I keep for myself. Anybody able to tell me or point me to a review saying what bags the figures are in?

 

ETA: never mind used the search to find my answer. 

A very large percentage of the Target Tumblers appear to have popped seals. Perfect mint boxes are great but the difference in value is minimal between "mint in sealed box" and "pretty nice box, popped seals, brand new contents."

If the former shoots to $400 next Christmas, then the latter is going to be $380. You're riding the same wave either way. 

Yeah it sucks to get a busted box todaywhen you paid close to retail, but if you describe the item well in your listing you actually attract a new cross-section of the buying community that *wants* something that's already kinda open so they don't feel so guilty about building it.

Trust me on this.

When you pay 2x RRP for a retired set on eBay, it's because you REALLY WANT that Lego set; you want to build it and enjoy it! But when the box arrives pristine and perfect, it's much harder to bring yourself to cut the seals. 

I've seen imperfect boxes with popped seals go for even more than MISB. It's a mind game. People WANT to build the set but they don't want to "ruin" a collectible by opening its perfect packaging. 

It's. All. Good.

[brad4815]

Thanks for the reply. Great information for everyone. I already got what I wanted of it but was waiting for the last one to come to decide which one to open. At least the rest are all sealed well. I'm not going to worry about the shelf wear on them because like you said, I'm sure anyone paying 2x retail on it a year from now will want it to build.

[Pseudoty]

Nice post and lots of good points @mfortunek I am not disagreeing just have a different point of view. There are a lot of collectors that want MISB. I think in the past when not as many sets were stored MISB and people would pay to get the set regardless of box condition. However I think in today's market things have changed just look at the BIN listings on eBay for the Sea Cow. Yes popped seals verified contents and crushed boxes will sell but for less at least until MISB becomes cost prohibitive. 

[stackables]

With broken seals you can guarantee contents. That can be a good thing. Nothing like spending a lot for a sealed set and open it to find out it is missing something that cannot be replaced.

[Pseudoty]

16 minutes ago, stackables said:

With broken seals you can guarantee contents. That can be a good thing. Nothing like spending a lot for a sealed set and open it to find out it is missing something that cannot be replaced.

Agreed 100% just be prepared to sell for 20% less. 

[stackables]

7 minutes ago, Pseudoty said:

Agreed 100% just be prepared to sell for 20% less. 

20% that seems like a lot.

[Brick625]

10 minutes ago, stackables said:

20% that seems like a lot.

20% is a lot. From my experience if the price is $100 i would sell it for $95. But it depends from one set to another. 

[TargetZero]

with popped seals, 10% is enough all things are sealed its not used.. i would keep it even if damn, would sell it quick or trade it. haha im a perfectionist

 

Checking at my row of lego box, and wtf is that open seal box... duh, 

[jaisonline]

20% that seems like a lot.

20% is a lot. From my experience if the price is $100 i would sell it for $95. But it depends from one set to another. 

Honestly, I would pay close to the same price for MISB vs. open box / sealed contents (if box condition is the same) when it comes to expensive sets. I rather play it safe and be able to count the bags.

I'm in the minority though. We have a blog about this topic. The diff wasn't that great for the majority of sets.

[conceptmachine]

4 hours ago, Yinchuan said:

DOOMED! I am just taking a shot in the dark here that for many of you, this is your first product retirement. It's going to be alright! Just as long as you did not max out your credit cards and closet space and are not expecting to wait a couple years for payday.  If so...

I like the word doomed, has a catchy tone to it.    I think we'll all eventually be happy about the returns on this set.  I won't see anything from my 15 for at least 10 years, if I live that long.  

[justapilgrim]

Btw, just built one of my stash. Did anyone else have a heart attack that the joker minifigure is spread out over like 4 of the number 1 bags?

[Ed Mack]

I love the Tumbler.  Always have, but these last few weeks hurt the set more than you know.  LEGO played us.  They marked it as "Retiring Soon" and sat back and watched the horde do their bidding.  There were so many left in stock it took weeks to sell out.  I don't recall another major set taking so long to sell out with the horde in full acquire mode.  One really has to wonder if this set was such a poor seller that LEGO needed us to clear out inventory by giving the impression of scarcity.  This set certainly wasn't scarce with thousands in stock at Target.  Who knows what Amazon had.  

[Zelgazra]

Are all sets that get marked "Retiring Soon" reduced to limit 1? With all the talk about bans happening during the 2x VIP in November, I'd guess that in part the horde took the pace a little slower to avoid risking the hammer, and only being able to order 1 at a time slows things down considerably if everyone is playing somewhat safe.... might be part of an explanation. Not to mention all the sales and deals occurring over the past 2 months, many of us small to mid-size operations are tapped out on funds! Sure there was lots of stock, but maybe not tons more than we thought? 

[TargetZero]

8 minutes ago, Ed Mack said:

I love the Tumbler.  Always have, but these last few weeks hurt the set more than you know.  LEGO played us.  They marked it as "Retiring Soon" and sat back and watched the horde do their bidding.  There were so many left in stock it took weeks to sell out.  I don't recall another major set taking so long to sell out with the horde in full acquire mode.  One really has to wonder if this set was such a poor seller that LEGO needed us to clear out inventory by giving the impression of scarcity.  This set certainly wasn't scarce with thousands in stock at Target.  Who knows what Amazon had.  

yeah but wasnt the point to clear it for the new sets? always tough it was license, new movie agreement.

it is the most logical explanation for it's short life. Yeah maybe target had 4000, with a year life... how many X-wing etc were sold? Maybe they got it per batch, and tumbler was bing last big batch, we produced it in a row because of high cost, and after it's done, and it's done now, we choosed to hord it

[dcdfan]

I love the Tumbler.  Always have, but these last few weeks hurt the set more than you know.  LEGO played us.  They marked it as "Retiring Soon" and sat back and watched the horde do their bidding.  There were so many left in stock it took weeks to sell out.  I don't recall another major set taking so long to sell out with the horde in full acquire mode.  One really has to wonder if this set was such a poor seller that LEGO needed us to clear out inventory by giving the impression of scarcity.  This set certainly wasn't scarce with thousands in stock at Target.  Who knows what Amazon had.  

I think time will be the saving grace for this set...

Are all sets that get marked "Retiring Soon" reduced to limit 1? With all the talk about bans happening during the 2x VIP in November, I'd guess that in part the horde took the pace a little slower to avoid risking the hammer, and only being able to order 1 at a time slows things down considerably if everyone is playing somewhat safe.... might be part of an explanation. Not to mention all the sales and deals occurring over the past 2 months, many of us small to mid-size operations are tapped out on funds! Sure there was lots of stock, but maybe not tons more than we thought? 

This was never reduced to limit one. This was always limit one...

[LegoEdison]

In order to milk the tumbler in that short period of time is produce the most they can and put the retiring tag. All the tumbler are now sold without discount. It hurt us to resell in the future but I think they did a very good job to milk the most out of it.

[TargetZero]

I mean, it cannot be overproduced, I see it has a gift from lego, lego has a hard time to keep it ok with stocks. I don't see why they would overproduce this one prior not to give other. It was limited and that's all.I just think people who didn't bough it did, i know people who did not to invest in but for doing it  and horder hord it of course... So I assume the total of sets produced cannot exceed 3 years production.

It's all speculation, we don't have numbers. Who knows. nobody. But I am sure it's a winner. It cannot lose.

4000 sets isnt that much if total is unknow, but if they had those 4000 sets for 6 month and slowly selling

.... all speculation , gimme data

 

Edited January 12, 2016 by TargetZero

[asharerin]

I know more than a few who in previous years would have cleaned up Target's stock in a few days who can no longer purchase from Target at all. No surprise to me that Target and Amazon took a few weeks to sell out while Wally World and B&N got cleaned out quickly. I would not read anything into the length of time this or any set hangs around at Target or LEGO Shop at Home.

[Pseudoty]

20% is a lot that is my point from the previous page. I am talking about future sales when everyone has MISB not the past where popped seals were the norm.  Just a glance at eBay BIN new ISD, AT-AT, EEE not a single opened set listed. 

[Ed Mack]

The limit of one from LEGO S@H helped this set for a long time until it went to all the other retailers. I like the potential of this set, but this last month really enabled people to stockpile the set. I'm going to tell you it went from under stockpiled to much higher on the Brickfolio inventory total in the course of a month. You can assume most that were sold this past week went to resellers.