76023 - The Tumbler

[conceptmachine]

Just like the recent TOO and Sea Cow, these will be coming back for a short run out.  I doubt we see any more seal codes.  If we do we're all doomed.

Edited January 11, 2016 by conceptmachine

[Yinchuan]

13 minutes ago, conceptmachine said:

Just like the recent TOO and Sea Cow, these will be coming back for a short run out.  I doubt we see any more seal codes.  If we do we're all doomed.

DOOMED! I am just taking a shot in the dark here that for many of you, this is your first product retirement. It's going to be alright! Just as long as you did not max out your credit cards and closet space and are not expecting to wait a couple years for payday.  If so...

[Rimmit]

So I am brand new to this forum, but not brand new to the LEGO game.  I was in it huge from 2004-2007,  Had many UCS xwings, Tie Interceptors, ISD, CTT, Cloud Cities (I thought I did well when I sold my Boba Fett for 98 back then, Oh if I had only known) and then due to space constraints I had to sell of all my stock just because I did not have space.  I now own a home, with a large basement, and have since gotten back into it in the last week, starting with the Tumbler.  This set alone was enough to pull me out of retirement.

And do you want to know why, despite all the disbelievers on this forum, this will be a grand slam.  No doubt about it.  And here are my reasons why, and I will try not to rehash some of the points that have been beaten to death.

Who are the people that drive a price up?  Like 1000% up?  The average collector will drive the price of a collectible to the 200% range, but what makes one take off, like the Taj Mahal or the UCS Millenium Falcon (Shooting myself for not buying that.  I got married on 2007, and just did not have the space.  I remember the days of it being 400 on LEGO Shop at Home.  Sigh).  Why is it that some sets can hit the moon and not others?  It's the people who the set attracts.  While market can dictate a price, the bottom line is only a select few people will pay 5000k for a Falcon or 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For the most part these are the AFOLs that make a salary in which they don't care what they are paying. 

I am very blessed in that I make a very nice salary, and I know many other people who do too.  I have a friend who bought a 3000 dollar Taj Mahal as an XMas present for her spouse.  These are the people that can make a set go to the moon.  An executive for a large company is the person who is likely to buy a 5k Falcon for his den, or office to display.  The average consumer will not.  Everyone complains about AA.  Well, I'll tell you why it isn't taking off.  No executive wants to display that in their office.  I wouldn't.  Ask yourself "Would I put this in a fortune 500 CEO's office?"  And if the answer is yes, well that is likely to be a winner.   

To break into the upper echelon, you have to have not just a market, but have the appeal to the high end 1% market.  The market that doesn't care about cost.  The market that wants to own it so they can brag and show it off on there shelf and partly to brag they paid "X" dollars for it. My friend just likes to say she paid 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For this market, it's not just about owning it, it's also about how much you paid for it.  It's about feeling special by owning it, and showing it off.  This set has that potential.  My generation (I am 34) is just hitting the sweet spot in life where they are making a great salary, have expendable income and have the space to own the toys that they couldn't afford when they were in the 20's.  It is an ICONIC vehicle.  When I first watch the Dark Knight and Batman Begins, I couldn't stop thinking how awesome that car was.  Some argue it was in only 2 Movies.  Well the Falcon was in 3 up until this December.  It's in 4 now!  The delorean was in 3 Movies!  The interest is incredibly high for this item.  Will it be a UCS Falcon?  No.  But will it be better than probably 95% of other lego sets.  Definitely.

Legos are a universal appealing item.  They transcend borders.  Hence why Lego's (UCS Lego's) never depreciate.  Some might not go to the moon, but you won't lose money, unlike the stock market.  The population of the world only grows, and with population growth, the fans of legos will only grow.  Unlike a fad like pokemon, cabbage patch dolls, furby's, lego's have stood the test of time.

Sorry for the long post, but I truly believe this was a no brainer.  I bought 25 myself.  I predict this to be 650-700 in 3 years.  Amazon is already slowly creeping up on the lowest price available.  Only one at 259 as of now, and the next is 279.  It's only day #1.  Ebay sold auctions running 250-280.  Even higher in Europe.  The future is bright.

 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Rimmit

[HandyHand]

58 minutes ago, marco.techico said:

Hehe I hadn't even turned up for class. If it wasn't for my GF buying me 42009 for Xmas I'd still be stuck in my "forgotten all about lego" bubble. Consider me a new transfer, still playing catch up, and by the looks of things it's just getting interesting. 

Any chance Tumbler MkII might make an appearance? 

You mean, a remake of this rather unique LEGO UCS set based on a trilogy of highly rated and widely appreciated Batman movies made by director Christopher Nolan? 

Sorry, forget about it. The movie studio that owns the Intellectual Property (IP) rights to Batman is moving on to the new Batman movie fitting within the DC Comics Justice League series of movies. The Christopher Nolan trilogy is a stand-alone set of movies and it's finished. The Batman from that trilogy is retired.

Lego will make new Batman sets, but based on the NEW Batman movie(s). And as we know, we will also have a big set based on an old campy Batman TV-series. But the Tumbler? It's finished and will very likely never be remade as a Lego UCS set.

[dcdfan]

Sure...

[gbg108]

10 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

Sure...

For $1100 you'd think they could at least guarantee delivery within two weeks.

[Serejai]

It clearly says expedited shipping is available...

 

Just pay another $200 for that; the box they use was recently retired by the post office.

[dcurve]

8 minutes ago, Serejai said:

It clearly says expedited shipping is available...

 

Just pay another $200 for that; the box they use was recently retired by the post office.

What box was that? Or is that a joke I missed?

[xeeeej]

1 hour ago, Rimmit said:

So I am brand new to this forum, but not brand new to the LEGO game.  I was in it huge from 2004-2007,  Had many UCS xwings, Tie Interceptors, ISD, CTT, Cloud Cities (I thought I did well when I sold my Boba Fett for 98 back then, Oh if I had only known) and then due to space constraints I had to sell of all my stock just because I did not have space.  I now own a home, with a large basement, and have since gotten back into it in the last week, starting with the Tumbler.  This set alone was enough to pull me out of retirement.

And do you want to know why, despite all the disbelievers on this forum, this will be a grand slam.  No doubt about it.  And here are my reasons why, and I will try not to rehash some of the points that have been beaten to death.

Who are the people that drive a price up?  Like 1000% up?  The average collector will drive the price of a collectible to the 200% range, but what makes one take off, like the Taj Mahal or the UCS Millenium Falcon (Shooting myself for not buying that.  I got married on 2007, and just did not have the space.  I remember the days of it being 400 on LEGO Shop at Home.  Sigh).  Why is it that some sets can hit the moon and not others?  It's the people who the set attracts.  While market can dictate a price, the bottom line is only a select few people will pay 5000k for a Falcon or 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For the most part these are the AFOLs that make a salary in which they don't care what they are paying. 

I am very blessed in that I make a very nice salary, and I know many other people who do too.  I have a friend who bought a 3000 dollar Taj Mahal as an XMas present for her spouse.  These are the people that can make a set go to the moon.  An executive for a large company is the person who is likely to buy a 5k Falcon for his den, or office to display.  The average consumer will not.  Everyone complains about AA.  Well, I'll tell you why it isn't taking off.  No executive wants to display that in their office.  I wouldn't.  Ask yourself "Would I put this in a fortune 500 CEO's office?"  And if the answer is yes, well that is likely to be a winner.   

To break into the upper echelon, you have to have not just a market, but have the appeal to the high end 1% market.  The market that doesn't care about cost.  The market that wants to own it so they can brag and show it off on there shelf and partly to brag they paid "X" dollars for it. My friend just likes to say she paid 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For this market, it's not just about owning it, it's also about how much you paid for it.  It's about feeling special by owning it, and showing it off.  This set has that potential.  My generation (I am 34) is just hitting the sweet spot in life where they are making a great salary, have expendable income and have the space to own the toys that they couldn't afford when they were in the 20's.  It is an ICONIC vehicle.  When I first watch the Dark Knight and Batman Begins, I couldn't stop thinking how awesome that car was.  Some argue it was in only 2 Movies.  Well the Falcon was in 3 up until this December.  It's in 4 now!  The delorean was in 3 Movies!  The interest is incredibly high for this item.  Will it be a UCS Falcon?  No.  But will it be better than probably 95% of other lego sets.  Definitely.

Legos are a universal appealing item.  They transcend borders.  Hence why Lego's (UCS Lego's) never depreciate.  Some might not go to the moon, but you won't lose money, unlike the stock market.  The population of the world only grows, and with population growth, the fans of legos will only grow.  Unlike a fad like pokemon, cabbage patch dolls, furby's, lego's have stood the test of time.

Sorry for the long post, but I truly believe this was a no brainer.  I bought 25 myself.  I predict this to be 650-700 in 3 years.  Amazon is already slowly creeping up on the lowest price available.  Only one at 259 as of now, and the next is 279.  It's only day #1.  Ebay sold auctions running 250-280.  Even higher in Europe.  The future is bright.

 

Epic 1st post.  Nailed it!

[Sauromosis]

Great post @Rimmit 

Curious if you see any other large sets out there that fit the "CEO's Office" mold.

[Mos_Eisley]

Sorry, but AA not taking off has nothing to do with CEOs' willingness to put it in their office.  The supply side of the chain is vastly under-appreciated. 

[jaisonline]

Like i said numerous times. This set is a grand slam. Anyone remember the 2014 holiday season when this exact set performed like a superstar? It was introduced that Aug and pretty much remained sold-out until Feb 2015.

[jaxman]

1 hour ago, Rimmit said:

So I am brand new to this forum, but not brand new to the LEGO game.  I was in it huge from 2004-2007,  Had many UCS xwings, Tie Interceptors, ISD, CTT, Cloud Cities (I thought I did well when I sold my Boba Fett for 98 back then, Oh if I had only known) and then due to space constraints I had to sell of all my stock just because I did not have space.  I now own a home, with a large basement, and have since gotten back into it in the last week, starting with the Tumbler.  This set alone was enough to pull me out of retirement.

And do you want to know why, despite all the disbelievers on this forum, this will be a grand slam.  No doubt about it.  And here are my reasons why, and I will try not to rehash some of the points that have been beaten to death.

Who are the people that drive a price up?  Like 1000% up?  The average collector will drive the price of a collectible to the 200% range, but what makes one take off, like the Taj Mahal or the UCS Millenium Falcon (Shooting myself for not buying that.  I got married on 2007, and just did not have the space.  I remember the days of it being 400 on LEGO Shop at Home.  Sigh).  Why is it that some sets can hit the moon and not others?  It's the people who the set attracts.  While market can dictate a price, the bottom line is only a select few people will pay 5000k for a Falcon or 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For the most part these are the AFOLs that make a salary in which they don't care what they are paying. 

I am very blessed in that I make a very nice salary, and I know many other people who do too.  I have a friend who bought a 3000 dollar Taj Mahal as an XMas present for her spouse.  These are the people that can make a set go to the moon.  An executive for a large company is the person who is likely to buy a 5k Falcon for his den, or office to display.  The average consumer will not.  Everyone complains about AA.  Well, I'll tell you why it isn't taking off.  No executive wants to display that in their office.  I wouldn't.  Ask yourself "Would I put this in a fortune 500 CEO's office?"  And if the answer is yes, well that is likely to be a winner.   

To break into the upper echelon, you have to have not just a market, but have the appeal to the high end 1% market.  The market that doesn't care about cost.  The market that wants to own it so they can brag and show it off on there shelf and partly to brag they paid "X" dollars for it. My friend just likes to say she paid 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For this market, it's not just about owning it, it's also about how much you paid for it.  It's about feeling special by owning it, and showing it off.  This set has that potential.  My generation (I am 34) is just hitting the sweet spot in life where they are making a great salary, have expendable income and have the space to own the toys that they couldn't afford when they were in the 20's.  It is an ICONIC vehicle.  When I first watch the Dark Knight and Batman Begins, I couldn't stop thinking how awesome that car was.  Some argue it was in only 2 Movies.  Well the Falcon was in 3 up until this December.  It's in 4 now!  The delorean was in 3 Movies!  The interest is incredibly high for this item.  Will it be a UCS Falcon?  No.  But will it be better than probably 95% of other lego sets.  Definitely.

Legos are a universal appealing item.  They transcend borders.  Hence why Lego's (UCS Lego's) never depreciate.  Some might not go to the moon, but you won't lose money, unlike the stock market.  The population of the world only grows, and with population growth, the fans of legos will only grow.  Unlike a fad like pokemon, cabbage patch dolls, furby's, lego's have stood the test of time.

Sorry for the long post, but I truly believe this was a no brainer.  I bought 25 myself.  I predict this to be 650-700 in 3 years.  Amazon is already slowly creeping up on the lowest price available.  Only one at 259 as of now, and the next is 279.  It's only day #1.  Ebay sold auctions running 250-280.  Even higher in Europe.  The future is bright.

 

Excellent points.  Part of the reason I've shifted a lot of my investing to Architecture sets, and why I liked the EEE over Ewoks.

[Mos_Eisley]

57 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

 

Like i said numerous times. This set is a grand slam. Anyone remember the 2014 holiday season when this exact set performed like a superstar? It was introduced that Aug and pretty much remained sold-out until Feb 2015.

There are a lot of sets that could or should be homeruns, right up until everyone else comes to the same conclusion. 

[zskid00]

19 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

 

Like i said numerous times. This set is a grand slam. Anyone remember the 2014 holiday season when this exact set performed like a superstar? It was introduced that Aug and pretty much remained sold-out until Feb 2015.

I think it was hard to find at that time mainly due to inventory issues and reseller speculation based on the "out of stock, check back in January" message from Shop at Home where it was unavailable.  LEGO retail stores seemed to get a steady supply and despite the stock issues I don't ever recall prices spiking for very long on eBay.

[jaisonline]

 

Like i said numerous times. This set is a grand slam. Anyone remember the 2014 holiday season when this exact set performed like a superstar? It was introduced that Aug and pretty much remained sold-out until Feb 2015.

I think it was hard to find at that time mainly due to inventory issues and reseller speculation based on the "out of stock, check back in January" message from Shop at Home where it was unavailable.  LEGO retail stores seemed to get a steady supply and despite the stock issues I don't ever recall prices spiking for very long on eBay.

Prices rose just above $300 that holiday season. After fees, that's still nice appreciation considering we knew it was coming back into stock. It was a hot holiday gift in 2014.

[trekgate502]

1 hour ago, Rimmit said:

So I am brand new to this forum, but not brand new to the LEGO game.  I was in it huge from 2004-2007,  Had many UCS xwings, Tie Interceptors, ISD, CTT, Cloud Cities (I thought I did well when I sold my Boba Fett for 98 back then, Oh if I had only known) and then due to space constraints I had to sell of all my stock just because I did not have space.  I now own a home, with a large basement, and have since gotten back into it in the last week, starting with the Tumbler.  This set alone was enough to pull me out of retirement.

And do you want to know why, despite all the disbelievers on this forum, this will be a grand slam.  No doubt about it.  And here are my reasons why, and I will try not to rehash some of the points that have been beaten to death.

Who are the people that drive a price up?  Like 1000% up?  The average collector will drive the price of a collectible to the 200% range, but what makes one take off, like the Taj Mahal or the UCS Millenium Falcon (Shooting myself for not buying that.  I got married on 2007, and just did not have the space.  I remember the days of it being 400 on LEGO Shop at Home.  Sigh).  Why is it that some sets can hit the moon and not others?  It's the people who the set attracts.  While market can dictate a price, the bottom line is only a select few people will pay 5000k for a Falcon or 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For the most part these are the AFOLs that make a salary in which they don't care what they are paying. 

I am very blessed in that I make a very nice salary, and I know many other people who do too.  I have a friend who bought a 3000 dollar Taj Mahal as an XMas present for her spouse.  These are the people that can make a set go to the moon.  An executive for a large company is the person who is likely to buy a 5k Falcon for his den, or office to display.  The average consumer will not.  Everyone complains about AA.  Well, I'll tell you why it isn't taking off.  No executive wants to display that in their office.  I wouldn't.  Ask yourself "Would I put this in a fortune 500 CEO's office?"  And if the answer is yes, well that is likely to be a winner.   

To break into the upper echelon, you have to have not just a market, but have the appeal to the high end 1% market.  The market that doesn't care about cost.  The market that wants to own it so they can brag and show it off on there shelf and partly to brag they paid "X" dollars for it. My friend just likes to say she paid 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For this market, it's not just about owning it, it's also about how much you paid for it.  It's about feeling special by owning it, and showing it off.  This set has that potential.  My generation (I am 34) is just hitting the sweet spot in life where they are making a great salary, have expendable income and have the space to own the toys that they couldn't afford when they were in the 20's.  It is an ICONIC vehicle.  When I first watch the Dark Knight and Batman Begins, I couldn't stop thinking how awesome that car was.  Some argue it was in only 2 Movies.  Well the Falcon was in 3 up until this December.  It's in 4 now!  The delorean was in 3 Movies!  The interest is incredibly high for this item.  Will it be a UCS Falcon?  No.  But will it be better than probably 95% of other lego sets.  Definitely.

Legos are a universal appealing item.  They transcend borders.  Hence why Lego's (UCS Lego's) never depreciate.  Some might not go to the moon, but you won't lose money, unlike the stock market.  The population of the world only grows, and with population growth, the fans of legos will only grow.  Unlike a fad like pokemon, cabbage patch dolls, furby's, lego's have stood the test of time.

Sorry for the long post, but I truly believe this was a no brainer.  I bought 25 myself.  I predict this to be 650-700 in 3 years.  Amazon is already slowly creeping up on the lowest price available.  Only one at 259 as of now, and the next is 279.  It's only day #1.  Ebay sold auctions running 250-280.  Even higher in Europe.  The future is bright.

 

Trek  says welcome sir very glad to have you here !

[jaisonline]

39 minutes ago, Mos_Eisley said:

46 minutes ago, jaisonline said:

 

Like i said numerous times. This set is a grand slam. Anyone remember the 2014 holiday season when this exact set performed like a superstar? It was introduced that Aug and pretty much remained sold-out until Feb 2015.

 

There are a lot sets that could or should be homeruns, right up until everyone else comes to the same conclusion. 

 

There many other people predicting good things for the Tumbler. Everyone has a home run prediction.  predicting HRs with the retiring soon tag also makes it easier.

Some sets are just easier "lay-ups" than others. If you asked me to predict a HR out of the current batch of sets available, I would easily strikeout 4 times in a row.

Making money by solid predicting is hard in this biz (like you and others have stated numerous times). Just focusing on exclusives and larger sets isn't successfully as years past.

[Miami Bomb Squad]

I've heard many HR predictions that never make it over the fence. 
As with every set out there, only time will tell. 
I have a good amount of this set, Honestly, I wouldn't want to display one in my office. 
 

Edited January 11, 2016 by Miami Bomb Squad

[Val-E]

As Ed mentioned, the quality of this set is not the issue. It´s how big that last production run was and how many of those sets are still sealed and in horde hands after all those advance warnings.

Super Heroes is not modulars nor Star Wars, never has been and never will be - the demand is just not there so  if it has really been hoarded to those levels then bad news.

I still see it making its way into the top 25 sets list in the next 5 years but I also see Red 5 above it in value

 

 

 

 

[labfreak7]

What bothers me about this set is how long it was available after getting the retiring soon tag. Also how many have bought these, and how many acquired them at a discount? Also the performance of the last ucs Batmobile leaves much to be desired.

[froncz]

I wouldn;t compare 'normal' Super Heroes sets to this one demand-wise. This is a Nolan-trilogy related set. I mean, the appeal of this set and the type of crowd it attracts is completely different than a Shield Hell Carrier. 

[jaisonline]

6 minutes ago, labfreak7 said:

What bothers me about this set is how long it was available after getting the retiring soon tag. Also how many have bought these, and how many acquired them at a discount? Also the performance of the last ucs Batmobile leaves much to be desired.

the last UCS batmobile is around 7x it's $70 MSRP.  granted, most of that growth happened in the last 2-3 years (long after its retirement).

[newbie77]

9 minutes ago, labfreak7 said:

What bothers me about this set is how long it was available after getting the retiring soon tag. Also how many have bought these, and how many acquired them at a discount? Also the performance of the last ucs Batmobile leaves much to be desired.

this set was rarely discounted in US except the target fiasco (i would like to call it fiasco rather than blown out discount).

[BrickU]

2 hours ago, Rimmit said:

So I am brand new to this forum, but not brand new to the LEGO game.  I was in it huge from 2004-2007,  Had many UCS xwings, Tie Interceptors, ISD, CTT, Cloud Cities (I thought I did well when I sold my Boba Fett for 98 back then, Oh if I had only known) and then due to space constraints I had to sell of all my stock just because I did not have space.  I now own a home, with a large basement, and have since gotten back into it in the last week, starting with the Tumbler.  This set alone was enough to pull me out of retirement.

And do you want to know why, despite all the disbelievers on this forum, this will be a grand slam.  No doubt about it.  And here are my reasons why, and I will try not to rehash some of the points that have been beaten to death.

Who are the people that drive a price up?  Like 1000% up?  The average collector will drive the price of a collectible to the 200% range, but what makes one take off, like the Taj Mahal or the UCS Millenium Falcon (Shooting myself for not buying that.  I got married on 2007, and just did not have the space.  I remember the days of it being 400 on LEGO Shop at Home.  Sigh).  Why is it that some sets can hit the moon and not others?  It's the people who the set attracts.  While market can dictate a price, the bottom line is only a select few people will pay 5000k for a Falcon or 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For the most part these are the AFOLs that make a salary in which they don't care what they are paying. 

I am very blessed in that I make a very nice salary, and I know many other people who do too.  I have a friend who bought a 3000 dollar Taj Mahal as an XMas present for her spouse.  These are the people that can make a set go to the moon.  An executive for a large company is the person who is likely to buy a 5k Falcon for his den, or office to display.  The average consumer will not.  Everyone complains about AA.  Well, I'll tell you why it isn't taking off.  No executive wants to display that in their office.  I wouldn't.  Ask yourself "Would I put this in a fortune 500 CEO's office?"  And if the answer is yes, well that is likely to be a winner.   

To break into the upper echelon, you have to have not just a market, but have the appeal to the high end 1% market.  The market that doesn't care about cost.  The market that wants to own it so they can brag and show it off on there shelf and partly to brag they paid "X" dollars for it. My friend just likes to say she paid 3000 for the Taj Mahal.  For this market, it's not just about owning it, it's also about how much you paid for it.  It's about feeling special by owning it, and showing it off.  This set has that potential.  My generation (I am 34) is just hitting the sweet spot in life where they are making a great salary, have expendable income and have the space to own the toys that they couldn't afford when they were in the 20's.  It is an ICONIC vehicle.  When I first watch the Dark Knight and Batman Begins, I couldn't stop thinking how awesome that car was.  Some argue it was in only 2 Movies.  Well the Falcon was in 3 up until this December.  It's in 4 now!  The delorean was in 3 Movies!  The interest is incredibly high for this item.  Will it be a UCS Falcon?  No.  But will it be better than probably 95% of other lego sets.  Definitely.

Legos are a universal appealing item.  They transcend borders.  Hence why Lego's (UCS Lego's) never depreciate.  Some might not go to the moon, but you won't lose money, unlike the stock market.  The population of the world only grows, and with population growth, the fans of legos will only grow.  Unlike a fad like pokemon, cabbage patch dolls, furby's, lego's have stood the test of time.

Sorry for the long post, but I truly believe this was a no brainer.  I bought 25 myself.  I predict this to be 650-700 in 3 years.  Amazon is already slowly creeping up on the lowest price available.  Only one at 259 as of now, and the next is 279.  It's only day #1.  Ebay sold auctions running 250-280.  Even higher in Europe.  The future is bright.

 

Congrats, you now have more likes in your 1st post than I've had in 1 1/2 years.  Impressive!