Val-E Posted December 29, 2015 Posted December 29, 2015 I´ll say of the class of ´15 of (pre)retired large exclusives, Tumbler will have the best CAGR as it was only buyable since Aug 2014. In terms of appreciation of % increase overo RRP after 2 years, I´ll go with Red 5, EEE, DS, Tumbler, ToO and Seacow. 1 Quote
botchy123 Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 Looks like Smyths have been decimated the last 24 hours.E bay price moving up quickly toward £250+ two day after EOL. Quote
jbacunn Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) On 12/29/2015 at 11:48 AM, Cbenioff said: I should clarify my skepticism on this set... There is no way it won't be a good investment. No big exclusive has gone down in value that I am aware of. Double MSRP in a couple years should be easy. But are there better options? Likely. Does it have super high end potential ($600-800+)? Unlikely. It may follow the path of Arkham Asylum. A great set but slow to appreciate so far. Does anything in this price range of $200 and released in the last 2-3 years have a high end potential of $600-800 in this current environment? I doubt it. Edited December 30, 2015 by jbacunn 1 Quote
Val-E Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 5 minutes ago, jbacunn said: Does anything in this price range of $200 have a high end potential of $600-800 in this current environment? I doubt it. 20 MF 75030 Microfighters bought at RRP in the summer are already there.... Red 5 is seling for double RRP in Europe but things are slowing down so I do agree. Quote
redghostx Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 5 minutes ago, jbacunn said: Does anything in this price range of $200 have a high end potential of $600-800 in this current environment? I doubt it. Except the Town Hall, which this is not. Quote
nolanfan34 Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 10 minutes ago, jbacunn said: Does anything in this price range of $200 and released in the last 2-3 years have a high end potential of $600-800 in this current environment? I doubt it. Ferris Wheel. Slave 1 maybe. But point taken for sure. Quote
tractorboy Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 On 29/12/2015 at 4:48 PM, Cbenioff said: I should clarify my skepticism on this set... There is no way it won't be a good investment. No big exclusive has gone down in value that I am aware of. Double MSRP in a couple years should be easy. But are there better options? Likely. Does it have super high end potential ($600-800+)? Unlikely. It may follow the path of Arkham Asylum. A great set but slow to appreciate so far. 2xRRP in two years sounds about right to me, which is fine. It might even do a little better. Sure there are probably better places to put your money, but we can say that about every set except for literally one set. And which set is that? Who knows. I think R5 will out perform it. But it will do way better than AA IMHO. It's a considerably better set and has way more going for it. AA was just an unremarkable building facade and a bunch of figs that people could get cheaper elsewhere. Quote
Val-E Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 5 minutes ago, tractorboy said: 2xRRP in two years sounds about right to me, which is fine. It might even do a little better. Sure there are probably better places to put your money, but we can say that about every set except for literally one set. And which set is that? Who knows. I think R5 will out perform it. But it will do way better than AA IMHO. It's a considerably better set and has way more going for it. AA was just an unremarkable building facade and a bunch of figs that people could get cheaper elsewhere. People forget that AA was up by 20-30% for a time after retirement - it just never went further and Sopwith Camel was the same. Quick flipping and reinvesting in Red 5´s would have been a great business move but 20/20 hindsight is always easy. Quote
tractorboy Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 19 minutes ago, botchy123 said: Looks like Smyths have been decimated the last 24 hours.E bay price moving up quickly toward £250+ two day after EOL. Yeah smyths.ie had them online for €180 until yesterday. All gone now thankfully. I remember when AA retired last year, smyths.ie still had it online for a couple of months afterwards. Quote
botchy123 Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 8 minutes ago, redghostx said: Except the Town Hall, which this is not. If TH was available for another year, no way would it be at it's current price. Same with the Zombies set. They only reached those prices because they vanished overnight not because they were great sets. 1 Quote
Val-E Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) Tumbler had a shorter shelf life than TH... BTW what are the seal codes of those that got the last wave of EU Tumblers from SAH? Edited December 30, 2015 by valenciaeric Quote
JM123 Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) 7 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: Tumbler had a shorter shelf life than TH... BTW what are the seal codes of those that got the last wave of EU Tumblers from SAH? 43S5 from the ones I got. Edited December 30, 2015 by JM123 1 Quote
botchy123 Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 9 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: Tumbler had a shorter shelf life than TH... BTW what are the seal codes of those that got the last wave of EU Tumblers from SAH? How many did you buy? Quote
Val-E Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 Week 43 seems to be last production for a number of sets - ISD, AT AT, Tumbler and perhaps Red 5. It was the same last year with MF 7965. Maybe something to look into next year as an indicator. 2 Quote
Val-E Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 6 minutes ago, botchy123 said: How many did you buy? 20 TH and 1 Tumbler. That´s my ratio when I don´t have "the feeling" about a set. Didn´t work out well with R2D2 or Delorean but one can´t win them all. Quote
dcdfan Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 Week 43 seems to be last production for a number of sets - ISD, AT AT, Tumbler and perhaps Red 5. It was the same last year with MF 7965. Maybe something to look into next year as an indicator. So, you're saying any of these could have replacements... Quote
Val-E Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) Yes, there will be a new Batmobile, ISD, AT AT and X wing. I´ll put money on it. Just don´t pin me down on a date. Edited December 30, 2015 by valenciaeric Quote
botchy123 Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 8 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: 20 TH and 1 Tumbler. That´s my ratio when I don´t have "the feeling" about a set. So you thought TH was 20 x better set than the Tumbler Quote
Val-E Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 At the buy-in options I had, yes. And ten of those TH already found good reseller homes to go to. Quote
synd2k2 Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 (edited) Hm, did this just now empty from Amazon's stock or did I miss it earlier? Was looking at a duplicate listing (first hit on Google!). Ignore. Edited December 30, 2015 by synd2k2 Quote
littlepuppi Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 Already heading up nicely. Always limited to one at a time on sah, short lifespan, iconic vehicle.. This is a winner.. And I posted the same pre sell out sitting on over 10 of these and v happy to do so. Quote
Cbenioff Posted December 30, 2015 Posted December 30, 2015 2 hours ago, jbacunn said: Does anything in this price range of $200 and released in the last 2-3 years have a high end potential of $600-800 in this current environment? I doubt it. Probably not, so point taken. It would take a surprise retirement like Town Hall to have a chance to triple in value in a short amount of time. I do think most of the star wars sets will do better (especially the Ewok Village, Sandcrawler and Slave 1). Some modulars might do better than the Tumbler in the long run (PC is my bet to do the best of the current group). Helicarrier should do well eventually (similar to SSD). I like the Ferris Wheel although its very new. Best bang for the buck investment for exclusives might be the winter village sets for all I know. By all means grab those Tumblers, but I disagree that its short production run will make it a standout performer among its peers. I think it has a smaller audience than some other sets and it has been horded quite a bit. At best it will match the performance of the sets I mentioned above. Or maybe I am just biased. Quote
Anomander Posted December 31, 2015 Posted December 31, 2015 (edited) I believe the Tumbler should at least double in value between 1-2 years post-EOL. I rediscovered my interest in LEGO in the middle of this year, specifically Technic, after seeing the MkII. I pretty much only was interested in the Technic line. I had no intention of building or collecting any other theme, even Star Wars, despite being a childhood Star Wars nut. Then I saw the Tumbler, and was blown away by its angular-plated menace. It's the one set that fired my desire enough to behold it as a 'have-to-have' exception to the rule. I have no doubt it will will continue to grab peoples' attention as an exceptionally attractive set well beyond EOL, new Batmobiles and cinematic reboots. There will be a constant supply of adults returning the Lego fold who will be similarly enthralled by this, whether they be specifically Batman fans or not. Another smaller subset of buyers for this would be adults who are aware of the set having incidentally seen this in the shops or online somewhere, and despite not currently collecting or building LEGO, would have the idle notion of getting this sometime due to its coolness factor. When they discover it's no longer in production, the regret and active searching might spur them into paying over RRP. Granted, it's a small subsection of potential buyers, and one that would probably only participate short term after EOL before prices get too crazy, but my bias believes this set has enough star power to even draw that unlikely demographic more than any other LEGO set currently. Anyway, breaking out of Technic with the Tumbler, led me to relent and check out other USC sets, and now I find myself down led the LEGO garden path and here today with an attic beginning to become more and more difficult to navigate with having to tetris all these cardboard boxes. lol Edited December 31, 2015 by Anomander misspelling 4 Quote
littlepuppi Posted December 31, 2015 Posted December 31, 2015 Cheapest one on Amazon is now £250 shipped, only another 50 quid and its pretty much doubled, I think it will double within 6 months. Quote
jaisonline Posted December 31, 2015 Posted December 31, 2015 76023 is a great set to build and display. Just fragile as all heck. The minifigs and stand are icing on the cake. Quote
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