76023 - The Tumbler

[Val-E]

7 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Ha y'all load up on city sets and let me know how that works out for you........I bet they are gonna explode in  value once all the awesome super heroes movies start coming out.

2 words for ya: Logging truck.

2 more: airport tender (buy in 16 euros, currently trading at 60 and above)

Edited December 23, 2015 by valenciaeric

[exciter1]

12 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Ha y'all load up on city sets and let me know how that works out for you........I bet they are gonna explode in  value once all the awesome super heroes movies start coming out.

The truth don't hurt the pocket book.  Point out a single Super Heroes set that has outperformed City Garage, Town Square, Tanker, Cement Truck, Logging Truck, or Cargo Terminal in the past 3 years (besides 6866)?  Those aren't real easy to find.

[force392]

9 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

Historic CAGRs:

Batman 30%. Dc 15% and Marvel 10%

 

City 15.67%

[Val-E]

I trust my judgement on City to sort the wheat from the Chaff. Heroes is mainly chaff from more chaff.

[stackables]

Are any of the "popular" themes doing well? Seems all the themes with a build in fan base are under performing.

[stephen_rockefeller]

9 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

2 words for ya: Logging truck.

2 more: airport tender (buy in 16 euros, currently trading at 60 and above)

Cool story bro!

6 minutes ago, stackables said:

Are any of the "popular" themes doing well? Seems all the themes with a build in fan base are under performing.

Not really.........we are on the downhill journey  which started like a year ago.

[Val-E]

11 minutes ago, stackables said:

Are any of the "popular" themes doing well? Seems all the themes with a build in fan base are under performing.

Investing in themes is like buying shares in the banking sector - the good ones will be negated by the bad. Themes like comics have been around for longer so there core values are shored up by pre horde stats. Right now Tumbler is pretty much the only safe bet although the Hulk maxifigs look cool.

BTW, guess which theme wins worst set award....

http://brickfanatics.co.uk/award-23-worst-set-of-the-year/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Brickfanatics+%28Brick+Fanatics%29

Edited December 23, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Ciglione]

Legostore and Discovery Center in Germany are all out of Tumblers.

Wonder if they will get a restock. Probably not?

[terse]

Just got 3 tumblers in from Target.

Seal codes 34R5, 38R5, 38R5

Just came in a large box with some air packs. 2 of them didn't even have any air packs. Box still in good condition.

One of them clearly was opened, seals removed. Will be returning that one to store for sure.

[BrickLegacy]

I called Target to order a replacement for my Tumbler that never arrived.  When the CS rep checked to see if it was available she said "I see we have plenty of inventory of that item."  I didn't ask her for a specific number but it didn't seem to indicate it was gonna sell out soon.

Half of those in the warehouse are probably returns from damaged boxes.  I'm starting to think they are shipping out returns.  The last one I received had two stickers on it.

[Huskers1236]

10 hours ago, valenciaeric said:

Investing in themes is like buying shares in the banking sector - the good ones will be negated by the bad. Themes like comics have been around for longer so there core values are shored up by pre horde stats. Right now Tumbler is pretty much the only safe bet although the Hulk maxifigs look cool.

BTW, guess which theme wins worst set award....

http://brickfanatics.co.uk/award-23-worst-set-of-the-year/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Brickfanatics+%28Brick+Fanatics%29

That set is bad.  Ugly building, ugly vehicle, "but it's got Hulk!"  I need to Bricklink Quicksilver from that set, but otherwise, huge pass. 

[Brian Briggs]

14 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

I'm getting sick of those that moan about box condition as I've always thought that the contents are more important. If I buy a set to build, I just pick up any box off the shelf and don't give two hoots whether there's pen marks, stickers, boogers, smegma, whatever on the box. I bought my last Tumbler from Argos where the box was brand new with current seal code but, plastered in catalogue number stickers that are impossible to remove. I'm building this over Christmas so I don't care.

Some boxes look really cool. That's why people might want to have them in nice condition so that they can display them, too.

[GhostDad]

On ‎12‎/‎23‎/‎2015 at 6:08 AM, Haay said:

10237 fail to rise? I think these sellers on eBay (Europe) are quite pleased with selling this set for around (or above) €300 with a buy-in of probably less than €200...

In the US market, we have both ToO and R5 widely available on eBay and Amazon for around $250 with free shipping.  Deduct eBay/Amazon/PayPal fees, and profit is almost nil if you bought near MSRP.  So yes, I'd call that failure to appreciate.  4-6 months post retirement was plenty for any number of large exclusives retiring last year to reach 50% over MSRP.  If you think today's secondary market is even as healthy as 2014's, you're ignoring a huge amount of evidence to the contrary (I didn't even mention Sea Cow sitting on Amazon at MSRP months after being 'sold out' on LEGO Shop at Home).

[HandyHand]

28 minutes ago, GhostDad said:

In the US market, we have both ToO and R5 widely available on eBay and Amazon for around $250 with free shipping.  Deduct eBay/Amazon/PayPal fees, and profit is almost nil if you bought near MSRP.  So yes, I'd call that failure to appreciate.  4-6 months post retirement was plenty for any number of large exclusives retiring last year to reach 50% over MSRP.  If you think today's secondary market is even as healthy as 2014's, you're ignoring a huge amount of evidence to the contrary (I didn't even mention Sea Cow sitting on Amazon at MSRP months after being 'sold out' on LEGO Shop at Home).

Which proves once again how completely different the US reseller market is compared to the European reseller market.  

Also, ToO was retired in the US since October while it was retired in the EU since August. Two whole months sooner! And R5 is just Sold Out in the US (while still easily available here in the EU). It's not Retired yet.

Sure, your point that the secondary market in 2015 is different from 2014 is true. I think people here probably said the same about 2014 compared to 2013, didn't they? (I wasn't here yet in 2014... ). In hindsight the past often looks better, easier, more clear, than the present we have to deal with...

[Val-E]

In the present, another day rolls by and it is still in stock.......

[botchy123]

 

8 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

In the present, another day rolls by and it is still in stock.......

Maybe a discount coming to blow it away in a few hours.

[landphieran]

The market this year is much much more saturated then years past. Extended production runs, more people in the market and more people looking to make a quick buck.

I see a lot of people claiming they are still doing well. I think you can. It takes a lot of work. The right local deals, connections or time.

ToO and TB was the biggest mistake i made this year. I understand the Tumbler will "do well", the same as TB and ToO will, but how long do you have to wait? I have adjusted my investing strategy. I have started to more thoroughly identify long term holds and limit those purchases to a specifiicnumber while investing more in what i see as 1-3 year winners.

[Val-E]

9 minutes ago, botchy123 said:

 

Maybe a discount coming to blow it away in a few hours.

According to the mailing, Lego Europe sale starts on the 6th January (some countries give presents until the 6th). Sets like this one, Red 5 (and Pet Shop) should really have been done by now unless Lego has sold less than expected. There´s still 2 weeks to the sale but if they haven´t, you wonder if they will be marked down.

[HandyHand]

31 minutes ago, valenciaeric said:

According to the mailing, Lego Europe sale starts on the 6th January (some countries give presents until the 6th). Sets like this one, Red 5 (and Pet Shop) should really have been done by now unless Lego has sold less than expected. There´s still 2 weeks to the sale but if they haven´t, you wonder if they will be marked down.

If... Red Five and The Tumbler are still not Sold Out yet by January 6th, I really wonder if TLG will mark them down, just to get rid of them. 

I don't have experience (yet) with the January sale at Lego Stores, but do they regularly also mark down flagship sets, as seen in past January sales?

[Val-E]

yes, but usually when they are already sold out. Last year they screwed up and marked down SW when it was still backorderable but didn´t fulfil many orders on the premise it was a retired product.

All the retired exclusives were half price but sold out untill Feb15.

Edited December 24, 2015 by valenciaeric

[Average Guy]

19 hours ago, TabbyBoy said:

I'm getting sick of those that moan about box condition as I've always thought that the contents are more important. If I buy a set to build, I just pick up any box off the shelf and don't give two hoots whether there's pen marks, stickers, boogers, smegma, whatever on the box. I bought my last Tumbler from Argos where the box was brand new with current seal code but, plastered in catalogue number stickers that are impossible to remove. I'm building this over Christmas so I don't care.

While on the subject of Super Heroes, it's another investment theme (along with CITY and ENEMIES FRIENDS) that I'll now avoid due to over-supply, constant refreshes and fake minifigs.

Resellers that return kits because they want mint boxes cause extra burden and expense to retailers and another reason retailers ban people. I am glad you said it first because I am tired of saying it and reading about people complain mint boxes. My theory is: the only people that worry about mint boxes are resellers that worry about their marketplace feedback. I believe the end customer is not concerned about a mint box unless they are fanatical collectors. If you message me presale about wanting a mint box, I will ban you from ordering from me. I don't want the hassle.  

[stephen_rockefeller]

Some people work hard for their money and want a undamaged product in return for that money. I suspect people who don't care.....or belittle people who do care don't have to work very hard for their money. It's whatever  though I will continue to only collect mint box sets regardless.

[Average Guy]

42 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said:

Some people work hard for their money and want a undamaged product in return for that money. I suspect people who don't care.....or belittle people who do care don't have to work very hard for their money. It's whatever  though I will continue to only collect mint box sets regardless.

I don't call reselling "working hard", if you do then you are the one who doesn't know suffering or sacrifice. They are little plastic bricks. Last time I checked, you cant build with the box.

[dcdfan]

Not everyone has the luxury of "hand selecting" mint boxes at the Lego store. Some people are just more privileged then others. Unfortunately, I have to resort to online purchasing the qty needed so I'm at the mercy of luck...

If someone doesn't want my less than perfect box, no problem. At the right price someone else will take it. Never been a problem so far...

[Average Guy]

8 minutes ago, dcdfan said:

Not everyone has the luxury of "hand selecting" mint boxes at the Lego store. Some people are just more privileged then others. Unfortunately, I have to resort to online purchasing the qty needed so I'm at the mercy of luck...

I dont begrudge anyone for hand sorting an item in person at a store - that is the buyer's choice. However when a reseller guises themselves as an end-consumer instead of a reseller, and uses a carrier service to order product unseen from a retailer, sometimes using the retailer's sales or promotions or coupons and sometimes in large quantities, and then under that guise as an end consumer, complains to the retailer about a dent, or a crease, or a scratch, and wants a replacement or a partial refund, then I have issue with that. If you think all of this is your right as a consumer an  END-COMSUMER, just let the retailer know that you are a reseller and see what their action toward you is.