GhostDad Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 On 12/20/2015 at 1:16 AM, stephen_rockefeller said: Fake tumblers from China are gonna make this set a loser......stay away everyone. Obviously this was the usual stephen_rockefeller 'counterfeits are awesome!' sarcasm (@mods: maybe one of you could explain to me why any mention of counterfeiting by a 'regular' member outside of its dedicated thread gets instantly moved or deleted, but no mod seems to have a problem with stephen_rockefeller's off-topic sarcasm). However, counterfeiting is absolutely holding back appreciation of virtually every Super Heroes set. If it doesn't bother you that Super Heroes sets essentially never retire due to the unending stream of counterfeit exact copies widely available all over the internet, then by all means, load up on them. It's your money. Regarding Tumbler specifically, as Ed Mack and others have pointed out in the past, the 'retiring soon' tag is used by Lego to accelerate sales of sets that aren't moving as fast as they would like. It is not a good sign. The poor performance of Arkham Asylum is likewise not a good sign. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 28 minutes ago, GhostDad said: Regarding Tumbler specifically, as Ed Mack and others have pointed out in the past, the 'retiring soon' tag is used by Lego to accelerate sales of sets that aren't moving as fast as they would like. It is not a good sign. The poor performance of Arkham Asylum is likewise not a good sign. So you're saying that the Star Wars UCS set 10240 Red Five which has the Retiring Soon tag in Europe is not a good sign for this set? That would seem very far fetched to me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
botchy123 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 20 minutes ago, Haay said: So you're saying that the Star Wars UCS set 10240 Red Five which has the Retiring Soon tag in Europe is not a good sign for this set? That would seem very far fetched to me! I prefer to get advance warning than none at all. Most people would of planned on getting the Tumbler next year which was similar to TH and HH, so i am quite grateful to get the chance to get this set in particular. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12 minutes ago, botchy123 said: I prefer to get advance warning than none at all. Most people would of planned on getting the Tumbler next year which was similar to TH and HH, so i am quite grateful to get the chance to get this set in particular. Indeed! If TLG had only tagged it internally as retiring soon without communicating it, and suddenly the set had gone Call to Check --> Sold Out --> Retired, people here would have panicked because they would not have reached their quota. Just wait and see what happens after The Tumbler goes Sold Out in Europe. I think eBay prices will start to climb immediately! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 10 minutes ago, botchy123 said: I prefer to get advance warning than none at all. Most people would of planned on getting the Tumbler next year which was similar to TH and HH, so i am quite grateful to get the chance to get this set in particular. 37 minutes ago, Haay said: So you're saying that the Star Wars UCS set 10240 Red Five which has the Retiring Soon tag in Europe is not a good sign for this set? That would seem very far fetched to me! I rest my case and that of Ghostdad by collating your responses. Both these sets were selling well in EU according to the data feed when we had it so why have they not retired? The only explanation I find is that there is a lot of stock to eat through. The issue is that if the advance warned horde is eating through that stock then we get the situation of a lot of sets in hands of resellers and the time to wait to turn a profit is longer - we have seen that many times. For those that like to sell and move on after a couple of years, that´s a problem as returns will not be as good. For the long hold specialists, the danger, especially in the case of 10240, is the remake coming along. I won´t be so naive as to say that these sets are losers - it´s hard to pick a loser large exclusive except for AA, but they just won´t do as well as sets that puff without notice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 (edited) 10 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: I rest my case and that of Ghostdad by collating your responses. Both these sets were selling well in EU according to the data feed when we had it so why have they not retired? The only explanation I find is that there is a lot of stock to eat through. The issue is that if the advance warned horde is eating through that stock then we get the situation of a lot of sets in hands of resellers and the time to wait to turn a profit is longer - we have seen that many times. For those that like to sell and move on after a couple of years, that´s a problem as returns will not be as good. For the long hold specialists, the danger, especially in the case of 10240, is the remake coming along. I won´t be so naive as to say that these sets are losers - it´s hard to pick a loser large exclusive except for AA, but they just won´t do as well as sets that puff without notice. Good points, Eric. Maybe that's exactly what TLG is trying to accomplish here: by giving advance warning of a set retiring soon, the reseller horde eats up the stock and then they will compete against each other by undercutting each other's prices to keep the general post-retirement price lower. TLG has seen what happens to unexpected retirements like TH and HH, with a price-inflation that TLG probably doesn't like too much (understatement ). Giving an early Retiring Soon tag may very well be their new strategy to combat the extraordinary price increase of sets like these after retirement. Edited December 23, 2015 by Haay Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 (edited) It will be until people get wise to it and don´t get sucked in. They need to alternate surprise early retirements, unnanounced ones, life extensions and retiring soon with little stock and retiring soon with masses in order not to create a predictable pattern. With Ideas and Architecture, I´d say they are doing that quite well. Chaos theory. Edited December 23, 2015 by valenciaeric Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Mack Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The Tumbler is no AA. The "Retiring Soon" moniker is a marketing tool to clear out sets out of LEGO's warehouses. The reasons for that could be many, such as slow seller, license ran out, new movie and/or products to push., expensive and costly manufacturing costs, etc.... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_676 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Excuse my ignorance, what is AA? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
glucapg Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 (edited) 9 minutes ago, josh_676 said: Excuse my ignorance, what is AA? Arkham Asylum Breakout 10937 Edited December 23, 2015 by glucapg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_676 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 A well valued set from the look of it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The last NISB one sold in Europe on ebay was at RRP which is why some people here avoid Super Heroes as a rule. I agree that Tumbler is a different proposition entirely. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sozial Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 29 minutes ago, valenciaeric said: The last NISB one sold in Europe on ebay was at RRP which is why some people here avoid Super Heroes as a rule. I agree that Tumbler is a different proposition entirely. I saw that as well and find it a bit shocking, since I got a few...hopefully next christmas with the movie will be better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GhostDad Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I think, and obviously this is easier to say in hindsight, that the 2006 Batman series garnered such great returns because it was around for two years and then gone. For the last few years, we have had unending Super Heroes sets, and not many people need 15 different Batman figures, even if there are slight differences between them. Tumbler is a different set than AA in that it's more 'mature' and a vehicle. Both plusses. But how many of us expected AA to fail the way it has? With a short shelf life, a retirement that surprised most, and the largest, most detailed Super Heroes structure to date, as well as a few rare figures (setting aside the counterfeit versions), it seemed to have a lot going for it. Regarding the secondary market generally, just keep watching 10237 and 10240 fail to rise on eBay and Amazon. Things have definitely changed since 2014, and not at all for the better. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HandyHand Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 1 hour ago, GhostDad said: Regarding the secondary market generally, just keep watching 10237 and 10240 fail to rise on eBay and Amazon. Things have definitely changed since 2014, and not at all for the better. 10237 fail to rise? I think these sellers on eBay (Europe) are quite pleased with selling this set for around (or above) €300 with a buy-in of probably less than €200... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
botchy123 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 And retired 4 months ago Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 55 minutes ago, Haay said: 10237 fail to rise? I think these sellers on eBay (Europe) are quite pleased with selling this set for around (or above) €300 with a buy-in of probably less than €200... Obviously photophopped Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Here is what I know about AA. Every 30 days my listing goes unsold and Ebay had recommended a cheaper price each time. This time it recommended $219. Few more months it may be back to msrp. I know it's early but it's heading the wrong way. I sold one for $300 6 months ago and I don't even get any watchers at $275 now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 (edited) AA had a narrow window for flipping of Dec-Feb last year. Everything since then has been downhill. Now it is a question of being patient and the last one to crack. I think Tumbler won´t have that problem but we don´t know how many lego has produced in this last run, More than time on the market, it´s the quantity produced that dictates the price as seen by Exo, SW etc. Edited December 23, 2015 by valenciaeric Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrickLegacy Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 I just received three from Target. All were in shambles. Beware when ordering multiples. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allen9917 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Threre is definitely SH fatigue in the market, both marvel and dc. Which predicted SH winner since 2014 is actually doing well right now? Need the new batman movie to be epic to boost the demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 What is SH? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Val-E Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Milano Spaceship! Oh wait...... You´re right, I thought it was us who had no comic book culture therefore limited interest in this theme but it seems to be a bigger issue. I am more concerned about the Helicarrier than the Tumbler though - that one seems to be overstocked and may well be retired sooner than later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allen9917 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 13 minutes ago, stephen_rockefeller said: What is SH? Super heroes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stephen_rockefeller Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Thanks! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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